maryland-bills-fan

I would love that. I would love winning a big lottery. I would love.....

Due to the rookie salary cap and slotting, anybody we draft at #9 is going to be paid at a top 7 LEFT OFFENSVE TACKLE rate. The offer the Bills could make (and be refused on) for the 5th year option, would be like a franchise tag rate at LEFT offensive tackle. Expect that to be refused. I look at our needs, what we have done in FA and think the weighted draft priorities (upgrade need X difficulty of drafting a better player) as DE...OT.....LB....safety.....OG. We can get a good RIGHT offensive tackle in the upper second round. We don't have a very good defensive end, who is good against the pass and the rush, to play opposite Mario. Since our new defense will depend upon the front 4 to get pressure and contain blockers and set BOTH edges of the LOS, that is our top need and can be filled (like ROT) in the 15->50 range. We don't have a hard need for somebody with the #9 pick (unless something weird happens), so getting an extra 2nd or high 3rd is the priority. Now everybody seems to be saying that if one of the top 3 LEFT offensive tackles is available, well we just have to take him (even though we have a very good LOT). That is sorta brain dead to my way of thinking. Many people place a lot of faith that one of the top QB's will drop to #9 and somebody will be in a frenzy to move up and trade picks. My question is why wouldn't somebody just love to trade up to #9 if one of the rare top LEFT offensive tackles drops to #9????? Maybe some of these Bills fans are afraid of wetting their pants if they have to wait until the second round or lower first round pick to get a ROT. The following teams need offensive line: Lions, Rams, Ravens, jests, fsih, Chiefs, Bengals, Browns, Saints, Panthers ** as one of their top 3 picks. I'll give it a 30:70 shot that Lewan will drop to us and we will grade down based upon that.

I'm afraid that you are isolating on only part of the issue with each of your statements. Let me answer them one at a time and bring in what I think is the whole picture. As to <i>"....top two OT's......"</i> you have assumed that the only route to this is to spend a LEFT offensive tackle draft spot on this to get there. We can get to a top two OT's by drafting the best RIGHT offensive tackle in the draft with a lower draft pick. The positions ARE different and both are important. The RIGHT OT often has a TE and RB as help and most teams run to their right, which means that the ability for a powerful drive block is more important than the LEFT OT, who must be agile to handle speed rushes. There has also been an argument poised above that we can afford TWO LEFT offensive tackles on the team, in case one of them is hurt. I would suggest that we have other holes that are more important to fix with a good new starter then having a spare pro-bowl LOT on the roster. "...are you worried about 2018 or today...." I am worried about both of them and I wish many of our past coaches had had similar concerns. You build a team by spending your resources wisely. If I am upgrading an old used car for commuting, I am not going to spend $5000 on new shocks but nothing to replace an arcing condenser. We only have so many draft picks each year and we have to get best value for each pick. You do not draft a punter in the first round, nor a long snapper. I look at our draft strategy as dictated by three major factors. First a product of the weakness at position TIMES the importance of the position. Secondly, the value of the pick(e.g. which pick in the draft) spent, must be proper. (For example, if we are very weak at guard but have a top 3 pick, I am NOT drafting a guard there!) and Thirdly, the strategy of being able to get a good player with one of our picks must be tuned to what is in this draft and the probable picks of other teams. I rank our needs with regard to the first two factors as (in ascending order) as safety, guard, Linebacker, LOT, and Defensive End. The MUST FILL positions are DE and LOT. We have Mario at one DE and ?? at the other. Hughes is a situational pass rusher but cannot hold the edge of the LOS on running plays. The defensive scheme we are going to requires the front 4 to generate pressure on the passer and stifle running plays for the fast linebackers to clean up. There is no one else proven at this position. I look for this being our low first or second round pick. LEFT OT will be the other one of our first two picks unless Shanzier is available. Actually, due to the collective bargaining agreement, who ever we draft at #9 (if we do) will get about the same salary: something like a $8.3M signing bonus and a $0.5M salary for the first year. There is a bucket of money (decided by the league) for rookie bonuses and this can be distributed as the team pleases. We would be playing our ROT about the same money as a top 10 LOT- that money has to taken from somewhere else. The "rub" is that the options for the 5th year would be based upon the 10 top RIGHT OT and a guy who considers himself as a top LOT would not agree to that option year. Note that sooner or later, the rookie pay scale scheme is going to be challenged. It was established by the VETERANS in the player association, to save money for the teams (not giving out fantastic rookie salaries) and that money could be used to pay the veterans more. With the trend developing for players to fake injuries to but pressure on their teams to redo contracts without affecting their attractiveness to other teams(al.la. Peters and Byrd and others), expect this to break down in the future. IF you are really worried only about 2014 and the next 4 years, why don't aren't you beating the drums for trading our first and second round picks for 2015, 2016 and 2017 for low first round picks this year? 4 first round and 4 second round picks this year? WOW. What could we get with those picks and we would have all those players for 4-5 years.

Interesting in that you have 3 offensive tackles (Bitono Moses and Martin) going in the 2nd half of the round- 6 of 32 picks (20%)are at this one position, while only 4 picks on are the defensive line. I think maybe one or two picks should go from OT to D-line. Otherwise, nice bunch of speculation- we are all going to be surprised by what happens, as usual.

I should have developed the idea further. Two counter arguments are ............................................................................... As pointed out by "hall of famer", we could chose to draft some real top 10 stud at another position with pick #9 and then draft a top 10 RIGHT offensive tackle with pick #41. That would give real strong players at two positions and would be better than having a top 5 RIGHT offensive tackle and a top 25 player at another position..........................or (my wet dream) we could trade down in the first round to pick up another 2nd round pick (maybe even throwing in our 3rd or 4th) to get three picks on the first day. We could then get that 10 ten offensive tackle, a top 10 offensive guard and a nimble linebacker to help the defense. Three very quality starters..............I think that is a better way to go, rather than overspending for the RIGHT offensive tackle with our #9 pick.

The pay scales for top offensive tackles is much different for the left and right sides. The top 10 LEFT offensive tackles go $12.6M to $5.5M The top 10 RIGHT offensive tackles go $7.0M to $3.0M. The bottom 16 of 32 LOT and ROT stream downwards from $3.8M or $2.0M. (these are cap numbers from http://overthecap.com/top-player-salaries-cap.php?Position=LT&Year=2013 ) If you draft a top LEFT offensive tackle and want to keep him past his rookie contract, be prepared to spend $8-10M a year. If you draft a top RIGHT offensive tackle, you will pay him $5 - $7M a year. Most of the league pays the position less than $2M a year. It would be unwise and stupid to invest that much money and cap space to that position. It would be unwise and stupid to use up a top ten draft pick a RIGHT offensive tackle, when you can get a top guy in the late first or second round. We should trade down in the first round but still use one of our first two picks on a ROT and the other on a LB, DE or safety.

Barr is a one year wonder. Maybin was a......... Barr is best as a rush 3-4 OLB. We don't play that.

I agree with you.

Kelly and Reich. Lamonica and Kemp Young and ......

Hi Dick Juran! nice to see you posting here.

C.J. Feidorwicz is third round talent at best, no way they waste a 2nd on him. I think that you have to look at the positions where the Bills have NOT stacked up a lot of talented players. Specifically, offensive tackle, offensive guard and linebacker (the 1 and 2 year rentals are only a stopgap, fallback position). Where and who do we draft depends upon how we trade down. Our targets are ROT: Zack Martin (1st round) or Morgan Moses (2nd round), ..... Linebacker: Sharzier, Noy or Mosley.........OG: Yankey or Gabe Jordon. .........I don't care how they do it. I would like to have a lower first round pick and two second round picks to get one from each of those positions. Trade one or both(?) 3rd round picks if necessary to get the second 2nd round pick. We get an immediate upgrade at THREE friggin positions- can you ask of much more from a draft?

no

Sorry dude. The 13th left tackle makes more $$ than the 1st right tackle. Money talks, BS walks.

My dream draft is to trade down and get two second round picks. We pick a ROT, a guard and a DE like Crichton or Easley to give depth behind Williams as the "big" DE.

I disagree. A one year wonder at LB is not worth the risk.

Yes. The Bills will trade down and either take a legit ROT in the first (Zack Martin ~ #25 or so) or one with their 2nd round pick (A Richardson, or Moses). Also somebody in the 3rd or 4th round. It does not make sense to draft somebody in the first 15 picks who expects to get the big bucks for a LOT and pay him a ROT salary. The highest paid ROT gets paid the same as the 13th LOT. Ignore that and you are building a problem into your team for the intermediate future (rookie contracts are for 5 years) or earlier (al.la. J.Peters or J.Byrd).

Okay, without doing much research let me ask here first. Is this guy the legit #1 WR that people are saying that we have been lacking?..........another comment is that if the locker room is dominated by good character people, then you can afford one guy with a potential for being a bad apple. He will not hurt the other people much and he may come around and behave under peer pressure. He does know that he has been traded as some combination of a salary dump and a used jock strap and suddenly can really see the end of his career if he f ups again. With Marone here, he probably knows that cutesy games are not going to have much traction.

or we can say that we put Williams on the disabled list......

,,,,,,,,,,,but having him for this year means that we could take a flyer on a ILB in a later round and give him an evaluation as a NFL player. A recycled small college defensive end type overlooked guy for example. We could develop him for a year and maybe he could become a keeper as a situational guy, starter or depth. If it didn't work out then we would then have another year to draft a higher rater player, trade, or FA to fill that hole. I consider LB and TE as lower round draft picks for this year because of the depth of players on the roster. ROT, can't miss WR, DE, OG and DB rank higher for the first three rounds.

Okay, I'm putting this here just for the record and to help people evaluate what the Bills might get for trading down in the 1st round of the draft. The trade value chart was devised by Jimmy Johnson as a guestimate for the odds of getting a starting NFL QB from the draft. I have noticed that it is sorta in the ballpark for trades, although I think it weights the top picks too highly, underrates the bottom of the first round and could use revision every year based upon the quality of this year’s draftees. You can criticize it all you want but if there were a better system out there, don't you think that someone would publish it or that it might have sneaked out of the NFL front offices by now? Anyway, for what it is worth, (and that may not be much), entertain yourself with the following. I have tried to show what are the most likely draft pick trades for the Bills SWAPING first round picks with teams 10 -> 32. Some of the swaps come out pretty even in points for swapping specific picks and on others I have tried to guess the most likely way of figuring out the "spare change". For the trades with the teams at the bottom of the 1st round, they have to use next year's picks (usually their low first round pick) to make the trade, which is usually what is done. Teams usually want to keep multiple picks each year, if only in the lower rounds. Next year's picks are discounted 50% in value, which seems to be accurate from some past trades. We get this first round pick……………in addition, we get the "Xth” pick in these rounds but lose our #9 1st round pick 10th pick…….... 5th and 6th round 11th pick............4th and 6th round 12th pick............3rd round and lose our 4th 13th pick............3rd round 14th pick............3rd and 5th round 15th pick............3rd and 4th round 16th pick............2nd round and lose our 4th 17th pick............2nd round 18th pick............2nd and 4th round and lose our 4th 19th pick............2nd and 4th rounds 20th pick............2nd and 3rd round, and lose our 4th 21st pick.............2nd and 3rd round 22nd pick............2nd, 3rd and 4th round 23rd pick.............2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th or 2nd&3rd this year and a 2nd round next year 24th pick...............~same 25th pick..................2nd round and next year’s 1st and 2nd round 26th pick...............~ same 27th pick............... 2nd & 4th this year and next year's 1st and 2nd 28th pick..............~same 29th pick.................2nd & 3rd and next years' 1st and 2nd 30th pick..................~same 31th, 32 pick...................the above plus a middle 3rd round this year or the following year's 1st

Old. Declining. No.

Pass on this.

I'm hungry.

Teams are playing a lot of 4 and 5 WR sets. (including fast TE's who can run as fast as the average WR). Offensive teams control the snap and can substitute easier than the defense and can run extra WR out on the field quicker than the defense. Therefore safeties are going to have to be able to go 1 on 1 with a WR more so than in the past. It should not be a surprise to see a trend develop to multiple "CB's" and LB/safety hybrids on the defense. than theththethan

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2014/03/25/cowboys-file-complaint-over-injury-to-lineman-jay-ratliff-now-with-bears/ "........... Ratliff was sidelined last season while recovering from a sports hernia that required surgery. He was placed on the physically unable to perform list, but when he told the Cowboys he was not physically able to play, they released him in October. A week later, Ratliff's surgeon medically cleared him to play and he signed with the Bears, playing five games for them.".............................................................................".Uhhhhh, my left footsie hurts on the bottom!!!"........."Wasn't it the other one that hurt last year"?.................."Oh.. well.... Uhhhh they BOTH hurt this year and they were okay all summer but I can't even hobble now"................. Sound familiar?