maryland-bills-fan

Smokescreens? I think the Bills have worked free agency pretty well to pick up players of known-ability at LB, TE, LOG, and DB, which relieves them of being forced to reach at those positions. They also drafted heavily at WR recently and this group may have high potential that cannot be fully realized and evaluated because of our young QB last year. I would say that our highest needs from the draft are LEFT offensive tackle (Pears needs replacement and at LOT, you don't fix what ain't broke) and Defensive End (we need someone opposite Williams as well as a third guy for depth). We can get one DE from veteran roster cutdowns, so we need only one DE. The Bills need an overall upgrade at a number of other positions, and with the deep draft, we want to increase the number of picks in the first 4 rounds. The draft is deep at a lot of positions (offensive tackle and WR), so we can let other teams burn their picks on WR and take a good starting RIGHT offensive tackle within the first 50 picks. There is no crying need for a shiny toy at the #9 pick. We will use this pick to generate an extra starting player from the first 2 or 3 rounds. Here is my take on this interview from my perspective. #1 We want to give other teams as many reasons as possible to trade up to take our #9 pick. #2 We don't have to draft a RIGHT offensive tackle at #9, but want others to think we would. " The Buffalo Bills believe they've positioned themselves to draft the best player available when their turn comes up next month in the first round of the NFL Draft We can go any position,” General Manager Doug Whaley said Friday during the Bill's annual pre-draft luncheon. If a guy is there with our pick, whenever that pick is – be it one, eight, nine, if he is the guy we think can get us to the playoffs, there's nothing that will preclude us from taking that guy. That's the beauty of how we set it up this year.(So the message is that we might be trading up (#8) or trading down {{{{{{{{Whaley said not having a position crying out for an upgrade makes the job easier and makes the Bills more unpredictable, so other teams cannot assume the Bills are going to take player X, rather than their heart-throb pretty boy)}}}}}} "When you have a pressing need, guys tend to get pushed up the board. When you push guys up the board, that's when you have a greater chance of making mistakes. While stopping far short of giving any concrete clues as to which way the Bills might be leaning with the No. 9 pick in the first round, Whaley did make it clear that giving quarterback EJ Manuel every bit of help possible is a high priority. {{{{{Opps, well if you want the top TE or that top one or two WR, you better jump!!}}}}}} "The perceived notion that the draft is deep at both wide receiver and offensive tackle is accurate, according to Monos. I think both positions have high-end talent and depth, he said. Those are good positions in this year's draft" Fisher said the top tackles available in the draft Auburn's Greg Robinson, Texas A&M's Jake Matthews, Michigan's Taylor Lewan and Notre Dame's Zack Martin have the flexibility to play either left or right tackle. In this league today, you're getting the same pass rusher from both sides, so it really doesn's matter what side they're on, Fisher said. Whaley further explained why the traditional thinking that left tackle is more important than right tackle is changing, by using an example from the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks." {{{{{{{So the Bills are willing to draft one of the top 3 LEFT offensive tackles and stick him at RIGHT offensive tackle. With the rookie salary slotting scheme, they would be paying him top 10 LEFT offensive tackle money on his rookie contract, and probably more than that after his contract year. But if you want a LEFT offensive tackle, who might have been a overall top 5 pick last year or next year's. get in line with a good trade offer!!)}}}}}}} "Whaley cited the need for more depth at defensive end and linebacker after the switch to a 4-3 base scheme." (TRUTH) "We could use more defensive end depth, but we signed some guys that are unproven, so we're excited and we just have to wait and see there", he said. Linebacker we have a lot of guys that will give us depth, but they're still a little unknown because they haven't been out and shown us what they can do on the field. {{{{{{{(I don't know who these defensive end guys are, but I would expect that in the coming year if they don't grow a red cape, tights and learn to fly, we will see offenses doing audiables away from Mario and doubling him and running over the unproven new DE on the other side)}}}}}}} Let's examine another "smokescreen" "You Should Trade Up with the Bills" ploy, which is the cornerbacks that the Bills have brought in for visits. Here I have extracted from a recent Walter's Football mock draft the pick at which cornerbacks were taken and detailed both where the Bills pick is AND the cornerbacks that the Bills have brought in for a visit. What caught my eye, was that the Bills have brought in CB's for a visit who are around all of their first 3 round picks. I just cannot see the Bills going CB that early with those other needs and I think they are just sending out the message, "if you want this guy, better trade with the Bills or they are going to pick him up". (note that it looks like a CB in the 5th for sure) The list of where CB’s might be drafted, the Bills picks and the Bills CB visiters: 1/11 ..................................................#9 a Bills pick 1/13 Roby(Ohio State)....BILLS BROUGHT HIM IN 1/24 2/46 2/34 Fuller(V Tech)....BILLS BROUGHT HIM IN ..................................................#41 a Bills pick 2/51 2/56 3/73 Breeland....BILS BROUGH HIM IN..............#72 a Bills pick 3/86 3/89 3/90 3/99 .....................................................#105 a Bills pick 4/125 4/126 4/134 ...........................................................#137 a Bills pick 5/159....Aikens (Liberty)....BILLS BROUGH HIM IN 5/168....Cockrell (Duke)...BILLS BROUGH HIM IN ..............................................................#169 a Bills pick 5/174 5/176...Gaines (Rice).....BILLS BROUGH HIM IN Well that is my rant. I expect the Bills to trade down once or twice in the first round and even again in the first 3 rounds. I expect them to draft (maybe not in this order) RIGHT offensive tackle, Defensive End, Linebacker, and then offensive guard, running back and cornerback in the 5th. Comments?

Williams is a bust? Uh? Please read before you type. What I said is that they would work the side away from Mario Williams all the time unless we have a good DE on the other end. They can see which side Williams lines up on and run to the other side or have an extra blocker work to Williams side.

I think the Bills have worked free agency pretty well to pick up known-quality players at LB, TE, LOG, and DB, which relieves them of being forced to reach at those positions. They also drafted heavily at WR recently and this group may have high potential that cannot be fully realized and evaluated because of our young QB last year. I would say that our highest needs from the draft are LEFT offensive tackle (Pears needs replacement and at LOT, you don’t fix what ain’t broke) and Defensive End (we need someone opposite Williams as well as a third guy for depth). We can get one DE from veteran roster cutdowns, so we need only one DE. The Bills need an overall upgrade at a number of other positions, and with the deep draft, we want to increase the number of picks in the first 4 rounds. The draft is deep at a lot of positions (offensive tackle and WR), so we can let other teams burn their picks on WR and take a good starting RIGHT offensive tackle within the first 50 picks. There is no crying need for a shiny toy at the #9 pick. We will use this pick to generate an extra starting player from the first 2 or 3 rounds. Here is my take on this interview from my perspective. #1 We want to give other teams as many reasons as possible to trade up to take our #9 pick. #2 We don’t have to draft a RIGHT offensive tackle at #9, but want others to think we would. http://www.buffalone...two-bills-drive " The Buffalo Bills believe they’ve positioned themselves to draft the best player available when their turn comes up next month in the first round of the NFL Draft We can go any position,” General Manager Doug Whaley said Friday during the Bills’ annual pre-draft luncheon. If a guy is there with our pick, whenever that pick is – be it one, eight, nine, if he is the guy we think can get us to the playoffs, there's nothing that will preclude us from taking that guy. That’s the beauty of how we set it up this year. [red](So the message is that we might be trading up (#8) or trading down [/color] [red]Whaley said not having a position crying out for an upgrade makes the job easier and makes the Bills more unpredictable, so other teams cannot assume the Bills are going to take player X, rather than their heart-throb pretty boy)[/color] When you have a pressing need, guys tend to get pushed up the board. When you push guys up the board, that’s when you have a greater chance of making mistakes. While stopping far short of giving any concrete clues as to which way the Bills might be leaning with the No. 9 pick in the first round, Whaley did make it clear that giving quarterback EJ Manuel every bit of help possible is a high priority. [red] (Opps, well if you want the top TE or that top one or two WR, you better jump!!)[/color][/b] The perceived notion that the draft is deep at both wide receiver and offensive tackle is accurate, according to Monos. I think both positions have high-end talent and depth, he said. Those are good positions in this year's Fisher said the top tackles available in the draft Auburn's Greg Robinson, Texas A&M's Jake Matthews, Michigan's Taylor Lewan and Notre Dame's Zack Martin have the flexibility to play either left or right tackle. In this league today, you're getting the same pass rusher from both sides, so it really doesn's matter what side they're on, Fisher said. Whaley further explained why the traditional thinking that left tackle is more important than right tackle is changing, by using an example from the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. [red]So the Bills are willing to draft one of the top 3 LEFT offensive tackles and stick him at RIGHT offensive tackle. With the rookie salary slotting scheme, they would be paying him top 10 LEFT offensive tackle money on his rookie contract, and probably more than that after his contract year. But if you want a LEFT offensive tackle, who might have been a overall top 5 pick last year or next year….get in line with a good trade offer!!)[/color] Whaley cited the need for more depth at defensive end and linebacker after the switch to a 4-3 base scheme. [red](TRUTH)[/color] "We could use more defensive end depth, but we signed some guys that are unproven, so we're excited and we just have to wait and see there", he said. Linebacker we have a lot of guys that will give us depth, but they're still a little unknown because they haven't been out and shown us what they can do on the field. [red]I don't know who these defensive end guys are, but I would expect that in the coming year if they don't grow a red cape, tights and learn to fly, we will see offenses doing audiables away from Mario and doubling him and running over the unproven new de.[/color] Let's examine another "smokescreen" You Should Trade Up with the Bills ploy, which is the cornerbacks that the Bills have brought in for visits. Here I have extracted from a recent Walter's Football mock draft the pick at which cornerbacks were taken and detailed both where the Bills pick is AND the cornerbacks that the Bills have brought in for a visit. What caught my eye, was that the Bills have brought in CB's for a visit who are around all of their first 3 round picks. I just cannot see the Bills going CB that early with those other needs and I think they are just sending out the message, "if you want this guy, better trade with the Bills or they are going to pick him up". (note that it looks like a CB in the 5th for sure) The list of where CB’s might be drafted, the Bills picks and the Bills CB visiters: 1/11 ..................................................#9 a Bills pick 1/13 Roby(Ohio State)....BILLS BROUGHT HIM IN 1/24 2/46 2/34 Fuller(V Tech)....BILLS BROUGHT HIM IN ..................................................#41 a Bills pick 2/51 2/56 3/73 Breeland....BILS BROUGH HIM IN..............#72 a Bills pick 3/86 3/89 3/90 3/99 .....................................................#105 a Bills pick 4/125 4/126 4/134 ...........................................................#137 a Bills pick 5/159....Aikens (Liberty)....BILLS BROUGH HIM IN 5/168....Cockrell (Duke)...BILLS BROUGH HIM IN ..............................................................#169 a Bills pick 5/174 5/176...Gaines (Rice).....BILLS BROUGH HIM IN Well that is my rant. I expect the Bills to trade down once or twice in the first round and even again in the first 3 rounds. I expect them to draft (maybe not in this order) RIGHT offensive tackle, Defensive End, Linebacker, and then offensive guard, running back and cornerback in the 5th. Comments?

Because my first wife (RIP) worked in an Aetna insurance office downtown that Harry Jacobs sold insurance from in the off-season and I have a signed picture of #52.

They have shored up the linebacking corp and found a good defensive back. There are competitive players at LOG and WR. Fewer holes to have to go after in the draft.

Good news. Better than giving a safety $13M.

It is bad if you are so weak at several other positions that you go 5-11.

Maybe it is to cut off some butthead writer finding out about it later and then trying to get a big story out of it by publishing the news along with a bunch of exciting made-up speculation.

Okay, lets get one thing out in the open. IF anyone out there has a better chart for estimating the relative value of draft picks, then the old Cowboy draft value chart.....please publish it so everybody can have then benefit of you overwhelming wisdom. The internet allows anyone to publish things that will get to a wide audience. I haven't seen anybody put anything out there. (if I've missed it, hey, tell me and everyone else! Honest!). Every time I've checked draft day trades, they are pretty much in line with that draft value chart. That is a bit surprising to me because it was set up to predict the chances of getting a starting NLF QB, but it is being used for all positions. ....I am a bit surprised that nothing better (to my knowledge) has come out. (as an aside, I wonder if it might be modified some years by consideration of the quality depth of the draft pool )There are a lot of mathematical tools out there- from simple spread sheets to complicated stat analysis packages. To me why hasn't someone compared NFL success (input independent parameters (such as position value, games started, probowl appearances, salary paid rank by position etc.) versus draft position and done it as overall and by position-played subsets? i'm too lazy to carry that out- I'm retired and it sounds like work. But there gotta be enough geeks/football fans out there to have tried it.....and there are no alternates to the draft value chart published. Enough rant for now......................On a second note, it would be nice if the draft-nik sites would rank players by some formula saying this guy is worth 74.34 and another worth 90.15, either by position or overall. IT would then be easy for us fans to figure out how accurate each draft predicting site was and cut some of the crzz.

Sob......any game I can afford to get to.,,,,,,sob!

My take is that Stevie has to be considered as part of the Stevie-Fitz combination. I feel that those two guys shared a lot of brain cells and Stevie could do unplanned moves that Fritz understood and they together could complete a lot of short and intermediate range passes. (I used to play soccer at a pretty high level and there were some guys that I could push a blind pass to and they would be right there- other, very good players, were just not tuned into the same celestrial channel and would give a WTF glance to you when you gave the ball away). I look at EJ as not having that specific connection to Steve Johnson, so the Bills will not get that same return from Johnson- maybe not as much as other WR already on the roster and certainly not as much as Johnson's cap hit justifies. Good time to trade him and move on.

Peace

..take the best player on your board,,,,,,,unless you already have that position filled. For purpose of argument, lets say that we have two top 10 offensive tackles and a top 20 guy as the backup. Then what if the BPA at our pick is a (possible) top 5 offensive tackle? I guess you would draft him. I think it would be better to trade that pick at a premium to somebody who needs that guy, and use the extra pick to upgrade another position- maybe offensive guard. To each his own.

Your argument is self destructing. You argue that "....Iwhich is stating that we can not predict which player is going to live up to his perceived potential...... and then proceed to argue that we CAN predict who the best player available IS and we should take that guy. Be consistent or go to Washington and join the ruling elites!

Uh, just a few points. Richter was drafted as a CENTER not a guard and wasn't able to displace Will Grant, so Richter was moved to guard, where he did very well. That is why he didn't start for his entire first year with the Bills. Another point is that there is a big difference between the #9 pick and where the great Bill's first round guards were drafted. Let's say we trade down from the #9 slot to where those 3 best Bills guards were taken- what could we get with the extra draft pick that we got. (Okay, I'm using the draft-trade-value chart, which is not exact but better than anything else out there and draft-tech's top 100 rating to show the extra player we could get with that extra pick) Rueben Brown 1995 pick #14.....draft value points 1100......DELTA 4th pick in the 3rd round Ward, FS #100 Jim Richert 1980 pick #16......draft value points 1000......DELTA 23rd pick in the 2nd round Sefen-Jenkins TE #52 Delemielleure 1973 pick #20......draft value points 700.......DELTA 20th pick in the 1st round Gibert CB #19 My point is that the #9 pick has a lot of extra value and suggesting that it would be okay to spend it on a JUST a guard, (as per the historical 1st round guard draft pick examples, would not be a good deal because we would be wasting a lot of the value of the #9 pick. I would have absolutely NO PROBLEM if (by miracle) we could pull off some trade as above and use the traded down draft pick on a LEFT offensive tackle or offensive guard- as well as something like the highlighted extra player. BPA is not the best strategy IF you have a lot of holes. BPA as a strategy is severely weakened by the fact that the draft is a crap shoot because everybody is way off in predicting the NFL ability of college players.

They definitely will draft a CB in the 5th round as that is where the three small school, under-the-radar guys are likely to be taken. In the first three rounds, they have brought in (see my post #28 above) guys who would very likely be available at the Bills' pick in each of the first three rounds. I can see two reasons for this. The first is that the Bills are showing other teams that they just might take that CB with their pick. (Why else bring the CB in for a look?). If another team has him high on their draft board and are hoping that he falls to them, they might want to move up a couple of places to be sure of getting him. We get more picks in a deep draft that can be used for either the additional pick, to bundle and used to move up a lower round pick, or we might get a next-highest round pick in 2015. .....OR, they might just pick another corner- maybe because other targeted players all got taken. I think the round 1,2,3 cornerback visits is a draft day ploy by a ONES BILLS DRIVE team that moved down in the draft last year. Sneaky guys.

To all people saying that we need to improve the offensive line and should draft one of the three best LEFT offensive tackles to play right offensive tackle. I say, have some patience, and if all your arguments about the value of extra LEFT offensive tackles are true, then there should be a lot of teams willing to trade up to get Lewan. Trade down with them and get an extra 3rd round pick. Use the lower first round pick to get a great, roadgrading RIGHT offensive tackle. Use the second round pick for a DE or LB. Use both 3rd round picks to get a top 3 offensive guard. PRESTO, two upgrades on the offensive line. I'm happy, you're happy.

Some interesting things about the cornerback and safety position- if we can speculate from the Bills pre-draft visitors and one list (Walter Football's 5 round mock draft, is what I used here- nothing special and had to start somewhere) FIRST, the safety position. Since we lost all-world&universe Jaris Byrd, one might suspect that the Bills would be bringing in safeties by the dozens to desperately search for a replacement. "Walter's" mock shows the following number of safeties drafted in each round. ROUND ONE= 3, ROUND TWO= 3, ROUND THREE= 4, ROUND FOUR= 5, ROUND FIVE= 2. Number that the Bills have brought in for a look-see? ZERO. Hint, they seem to feel that the safety position is not a priority. SECOND, the cornerback position. What I have in the following list is the {{{round/overall pick}}} that "walter" has a CB being drafted as well as which ones have the Bills brought it. 1/11 ..................................................#9 a Bills pick 1/13 Roby(Ohio State)....BILLS BROUGHT HIM IN 1/24 2/46 2/34 Fuller(V Tech)....BILLS BROUGHT HIM IN ..................................................#41 a Bills pick 2/51 2/56 3/73 Breeland....BILS BROUGH HIM IN..............#72 a Bills pick 3/86 3/89 3/90 3/99 .....................................................#105 a Bills pick 4/125 4/126 4/134 ...........................................................#137 a Bills pick 5/159....Aikens (Liberty)....BILLS BROUGH HIM IN 5/168....Cockrell (Duke)...BILLS BROUGH HIM IN ..............................................................#169 a Bills pick 5/174 5/176...Gaines (Rice).....BILLS BROUGH HIM IN To me the following might be. The Bills are planning on picking a CB with their 5th round pick and, the Bills are setting the table for a trade down of their first, second or third round picks by somebody desperate to get the CB that they had in for a visit. Maybe they might draft one themselves, but with RIGHT OT, DE, LB, OG and TE as higher needs, I don't see that happening.

....and so you want to keep the streak going and draft a RIGHT OT at #9. I understand.

Actually it is pretty common to draft a college offense tackle and project him as a guard in the pros. The OT has to be big and nimble to handle both bull rushes and loops to the outside from the DE. The guard can be a smaller guy, he can have short arms and has the benefit of working in limited space. Best college o-linemen are usually put at tackle and the lesser ones at guard. Read the draft reports and see the projections.

Are you really on this planet? We have a very good LOT (the harder position to fill- even if you spend a highest draft pick, you are not assured of getting "the" guy) and can get a top 3 RIGHT offensive tackle even in the second round. Why in the 'ell would the Bills spend a #9 draft pick for a position that could be filled with a high second round pick or even a third round pick? Again let me use the argument that destroys your argument. If we have all pro's at both tackle positions, and only street free agents at guard, linebacker and even quarterback, your argument is that we HAVE TO take that best player available OT. Boy, I would like to be in business with you as a competitor. What do you expect to do with this #9 offensive tackle if you had two pro bowl tackles playing. Would the NLF give you a 20 point head start, because you had him selling hotdogs and beers but on the roster? If a LOT stud falls to us and he is bar-none the best player available, maybe for the next 5 picks, I say that we should trade the pick (and him) and get two or more stud players in exchange. Think beyond the first thought and you will see that this is the right direction.

I suggest that you do some homework. Look at the rookie draft slotting salary agreement between the league and the player's association. Rookies are paid by their slot position, , not their playing positionalthough there is some freedom to arrange the money to give some a lot more. For the #9 position, the money for the first 4 rookie years is a top 5-7 LEFT offensive tackle money. (The 5th option year is sorta set at the top 5 salary/franchise tag value- which would be RIGHT OT- an offer that would be refused). That is what you will be paying for a position that normally is paid about $5M less. Why way overpay for a ROT and not be able to get a quality player at one of our other needs-improvement positions? Have the gonads to use a lower 1st or 2nd round pick for the ROT and use the draft pick for the rarer player at a tougher positions. We had what record last year? And your main concern is to back up a position that was strong last year, in case that guy went down. Please follow your own logic, your "fail-safe" plan would then guarantee us another 6-10 record. That is the driving consideration in trying to "improve" the team? Please, go back to the bar and buy another round for Dick Juran and his other buddies. What an great incite on this issue. I haven't heard any suggestion yet. This is case closed. You do not draft a ROT at #9. Unless you have won the SB for the last 10 years straight, you do not draft a ROT at #9 as a backup for your LOT. Case Closed.

Aha, I totally missed that the Bills had unlimited first round picks. My bad.

Geesh, get a grip. "having too much talent" is not a problem, I will agree- but you are only talking about one position. Having the two best LEFT offensive tackles in the universe, would be nice IF ALL ELSE WERE EQUAL. Having the two best LOT, but holes at guard and defensive end and linebacker and safety IS A FRIGGIN PROBLEM. If I were to follow your line a reasoning to a silly extreme (this is a way to test ideas for universal sensibility), we should draft a long snapper in the first round and then have "too much talent" at that position. A top 10 ROT and a top 3 LOT and a top 30 (defensive end, linebacker, safety or guard) DOES NOT beat having a top 10 ROT a top 14 ROT and a top 15 (defensive end, linebacker, safety or guard. Get a grip. Teams are defined as much by their WEAKEST positions as their strongest positions. ....and suk at DE, LB, OG and safety, rather than having very good play at TWO positions for at least 4 years. The DE coach, the linebacker coach, the interior offensive line coach, the backfield coach and the TE coach. Thank you for actually taking the effort to check out some facts.

Two year wonder.