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TPS

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Everything posted by TPS

  1. Not true. They have the one bullet that would actually work (stimulate demand directly): purchase T-bills/bonds from the Treasury. Technically, they aren't allowed to do this. In practice they are doing it to a degree. The reaction by investors to QE3 is the same as it was for the other QEs, buy commodity investments and foreign securities (bet against the $). Their reaction to the Fed's policy creates what they believe will happen, higher commodity prices leading to higher measured inflation. As the higher cost of gas and food chokes off consumption and growth for the majority of households, the bubble bursts, setting the stage for the next round of QE... As I've argued here for the last 5 years or so, since the commodity markets have been financialized (financial interests dominate commercial), expansionary Fed policy can be counteracted by the actions of investors. Previously, investors could only push up asset prices; now they can directly impact inflation. Bills 31 KC 17
  2. As someone else stated, if your numbers are correct about the money supply, why hasn't there been higher inflation? How long will it take? All Ben has done is stimulate more speculation by swapping reserves for assets. What will the holders of those mortgages sold to the Fed do with the cash? It's a portfolio impact, so what assets will they buy to replace the mortgages? And if it's a bank, what will they do with the excess reserves? No, falling income is not the definition of deflation, falling prices is the definition.
  3. A self-fulfilling prophecy. There's no where else to generate a decent yield; the Fed pursues QE1; investors pile into commodities on the belief QE will be inflationary causing commodity prices to rise, and therefore inflation. Commodity bubble bursts. Repeat with QE2., 3, etc. Maybe you didn't read it, but real median income is down. That means most people don't have the ability to raise their income equivalent to inflation. Nominal incomes are stagnant, so real income is falling.
  4. Just came across this nice little guide... http://www.designsponge.com/2012/09/buffalo-ny-city-guide.html
  5. I still have high hopes for Easely, and I hope they activate him. Put him outside and move Jones inside.
  6. This will be going on all day Saturday behind the Art Gallery and is organized by one of the Goo Goo Dolls: http://www.musicisart.org/Festival.html Catch a cab for some music in the afternoon/early evening, then pub crawl it back down Elmwood starting at Goodbars near Forest and Elmwood (10 minute walk from the festival), then stop next door at Coles (a Buffalo institution with excellent wings too). Blue Monk is about a 10 minute walk south, but there are a couple of nice joints between Coles and Monk. From Monk, another 10 minutes will get you to Faherty's, where a Murphy's is good bet, or Casa di Pizza across the street has a good beer selection and good food. Another 15 minute walk will get you to Allentown. Stop for a beef Kalbi taco and margarita at Cantina loco while you decide if you should go east or west on Allen for the next beer. Hardware Cafe is the best beer selection going west, and Colter Bay is the best going east (on the corner of Allen and Delaware). At this point, you are another 10-15 minute walk to Chippewa, and you are getting closer to home. End the evening walking down pearl to the pearl street brewery, another 10-15 minute walk. Enjoy.
  7. This is why I've thought (and stated here) for the past two years that the first Jets games are so important, they have been a measuring stick to see if the Bills can handle physical teams, and they won't make the playoffs if they can't beat the Jets. They've failed the "Jets test" the past two seasons. I also observed their timidness first hand at the Fins game I went to last year. They simply don't, or haven't, measured up to Gailey's own words: "it's a tough game for tough people." I think they have some tough guys on the O-line, and maybe Dareus on the D-line, but that's about it. I think Bradham could add some fire, as he's a nasty hitter. Someone definitely needs to light a fire under these guys.
  8. What seems to be lost on people is that the Jets are a very good team, and Ryan said as much when he said this may be his best team yet. Once again, Until the Bills show they can beat the Jets, they will not make the playoffs. That said, the Bills are better than they showed yesterday. They still aren't as physical as the Jets, but they aren't as bad as most seem to think. I think they will most likely be 4-4 at the half-way mark.
  9. Being sandwiched between the Williams', Dareus ought to have a big year, no doubt. If he faces single blockers all year, he has to dominate. I'm picking Moats because I've always liked him, and he is a very good player. If he turns out to have a breakout year, then that resolves one huge part of the question marks at LB.
  10. Check to see if the local station has an internet feed.
  11. Man, what took so long for this to happen....? http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/Bills-Postgame-Show-to-Debut-Sept-9/2179b72f-a950-42e0-b757-68445a464e99 Now I don't have to listen to the dopey post-game callers to 'GR...
  12. Yes, groucho it is...If you're not familiar with this quote, the other marx said "malthus was a libel against the human race." Here's a nice little essay that takes your pov: http://www.spiked-online.com/site/reviewofbooks_article/11353/ Regarding futuristic views of the world, I'm surprised no one has referenced Soylent Green or Blade Runner. Hmmm..."my reputation"......I'm sure my good friend AD will provide any necessary details...
  13. Of course it's not exact, it's an opinion. It wouldn't be as bad as losing to the Jets at home last year in the first meeting (which sent them spiraling down), but they will not make the playoffs if they can't finish ahead of the Jets in the division, and losing the first one will make that hurdle high.
  14. Sorry, was trying to say that most people would look at a week one loss as not a big deal, but in my eyes the outcome is crucial--if we can't beat the Jets, we won't make the playoffs. Hope that clears it up.
  15. Last year I said the first Jets game would be the Litmus Test for the Bills' season, and I feel the same this year. A loss in week one is not a big deal, but the Bills have not been able to beat the second place team in the AFC East for some time. I don't know who will win, but if the Bills do, then that signals they are legit contenders for the playoffs in my mind.
  16. Wow, now you're quoting marx; you marxist!
  17. I thought McKillop looked ok early, but not the past two games. He's a liability in the passing game. I think they realize they needed a backup to Shep for that 3LB package, and they found that Morrison can adequately fill that role. I think we'll mostly see a pass-defense LB package of Moats, Barnett, and Scott.
  18. Yep, you're not going to want to miss that pig roasted on my spit...
  19. Again, it's a long process, and I tried to envision what comes next; not something you can readily see "at the moment." No disagreements about the institutional needs to make the yuan a viable store of value (and safe haven currency), but that's not the only function of a currency. The $ also serves as a medium of exchange and unit of account for globally traded commodities, and it is used a vehicle currency for interventions. While the SDR could take over those functions, you are correct that it probably could not serve as a store of value, especially in a crisis when there is a flight to safety. Btw, China is slowly liberalizing its financial markets. I hope we're around in 15 years so you can buy me a beer when the yuan over takes the $... back.
  20. GG was referring to a paper I wrote in 2005 on the end of the dollar as reserve currency. I said the euro wasn't really an option, and that the likely candidate was China and the yuan, since historically the reserve currency was established by the dominant economic/military power of the time (pound from mid part of 19th c. to 1944; and the dollar from then until ...?). However, I also said it's likely that an international currency (like the SDR) could take its place. Regardless, "historical" changes like these don't happen with a flip of the switch. While I say the pound's reign ended in 1944 (because the $ was given reserve status from the Bretton Woods agreement), it actually took another 15-20 years for the $ to really become established and for the pound to lose its role. Let's see how things look in another 10-15 years.
  21. It takes awhile for empires (and their currencies) to die...
  22. Again, a government that prints its own currency can't technically "go under." As some have said, the central bank can always purchase more debt which could cause a collapse of the dollar and increased inflation. "Could." There is no global substitute for the dollar as reserve currency--yet, so its safe haven status helps maintain its value in an uncertain world; and inflation is being restrained by excess (global) resources. Of course, there's also the possibility of raising taxes and cutting spending...
  23. I think he's correct in the point he's trying to get across. If the private banking system held most of the loans, then the system could face another solvency crisis. Defaulting on loans owed to a government that issues its own currency, won't cause a banking crisis.
  24. Roberts has been blasting both sides for quite some time now, and he is right. We've been choosing the lesser of two freaks for too long now.
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