The 86% playoffs chance I've been seeing for Denver seems very high to me. Ran the remainder of games through Playoff Machine at ESPN and Indy should win final 3 games and Denver could easily lose to Cincy and KC. Seems like a much higher failure rate for Denver is likely.
Edit: NYT has it at 79% and that still seems very high. I think Payton knows he's in trouble after losing that game last night.