GunnerBill

Without a shadow of a doubt. Ed is here at least two more seasons. 2027 is when it becomes a conversation.

1. Yea. I very strongly disgaree. 2. I think that's fair on Palmer. 3. I am really not. My point about this draft is not there was a guy to transform us this year that Beane missed on. It is that the things he prioritised over and above a developmental vertical receiver on day 3 are indicitive of the urgency and priority he attaches to the position. Maybe none of the developmental guys in the class ever amount to anything. But Beane's two best receiver picks were day 3 developmental guys that did. And you miss every shot you don't take. There were intriguing developmental options there. The Bills had at least four of them in the building for visits. And they instead focused on TE3, and a Cam Lewis upgrade etc. 4. Of course the Bills are hard to defend. They have Josh freaking Allen. But there were teams who were able to do it. The Bills will be a top 5 scoring offense again. I have no doubt about that. But just saying that is good enough and not seeking out more talent for Josh is a mistake. If people are mad about this draft in isolation because we didn't get a receiver that's one thing. I think this is my favourite Beane draft since at least 2019 and has the potential to be his best since 2018. But I am worried about his approach to receiver. Not just in this draft. More generally. I don't think he does prioritise it sufficiently.

Move the needle immediately, for the Bills it was just Golden really and he went right at the point I'd have started to consider it value to go up for him. I think that slightly misses the point though. Beane and some people siding with him want to make out that those talking about receiver were desperate for one early. That is by and large not true. It is certainly not true of me - in the Landon Jackson thread I was very clear and receiver at any of those spots days 1 and 2 over the guys we took was a reach. But by Beane's own admission when you get into day, and especially rounds 5 on you start attacking needs on the roster rather than simply saying BPA. He talked about that AT LENGTH in his pre draft presser. And when it came to those needs he valued a TE3, competition for Cam Lewis, another outside corner (although he did say Strong was BPA and that is believable he was 6th best on my board at that stage) and a developmental tackle over a developmental receiver. It's that bit that some of us are questioning and it is playing in a narrative that definitely exists over 8 years of drafts that relative to the league Brandon doesn't prioritise the position.

The guys on WGR were making a similar point. I listened to the entire morning show yesterday. They said multiple times that they thought the Bills had a good first two days of the draft. Like many of us here they hoped for a developmental receiver with some speed early on day 3 and the fact we didn't draft one to the 7th was interesting. Their point was not we are doomed because we didn't draft a receiver this year. It was it feels like another draft where the Bills didn't make weapons for Josh a priority. Beane obviously did not hear the entire thing heard one snippet and came in hot ranting and raving. It was very unlike him. The talent has definitely dropped off as the 1st era defense phased out but Leslie Frazier has been a loss to the Bills. It is beyond doubt in my mind. Most of the board didn't like him. Most of the board was wrong.

I don't think Keon Coleman will be a successful outside NFL receiver. I didn't coming out. And he only reinforced my view in 2024. His best plays were invariably made when we got him in tight, got the ball into his hands and let him run after the catch. That is his skillset. I said 2 months before the Bills drafted him that his path to success in the NFL was a big slot. That is still my view. As for Josh Palmer, I like him. He probably is an upgrade on the corpse of Cooper's career but he is what he is. He will likely have a career year with Josh Allen throwing him the ball. But he is another complimentary receiver. They don't have that guy that dictates coverage and I don't think Palmer will instantly back teams of playing inside to out and creeping up into the box. If you are a DC gameplanning for the Bills your plan is take Cook away, stop Allen scrambling out to his right and clog the passing lanes in the middle of the field where they want to get Kincaid and Shakir. That is still the way I'd play us because I don't think we have a great counter.

Good mock but Beane took best player available. He wasn't against drafting a receiver but that long snapper was just a must have at the end of the first round.

Yea the first half of 2023 his defense was not too passive. It was too aggressive. I hated all the 3rd down blitzes.

All of this is exactly right. They played zone and didn't blitz. It was the 2021 regular season Leslie Frazier gameplan. Their corners are just more talented and played with more confidence to go and get it receiver's faces before bailing out. But you are also right KC just know Buffalo so well and vice versa.

Our 3rd down defense has to be better than last year. No question. Was only average in 2023 too. Basically been a problem since Leslie left.

Nobody was arguing about 3rd down defense. That was horrific last year. The point was about turnovers having high varience. Well under Sean McDermott the Bills defense bucks that trend.

I take your point, but the Bills defense taking the ball away is something you can pretty much hang your hat on with this team. Will it always come at the most opportune moments? Maybe not. But their track record for having them in big moments is actually pretty decent. Two of their last three victories over the Chiefs for example have been sealed by game ending interceptions of Mahomes. The Miami must win game week 18 last year the same, the famous forced fumble a few years ago when the Cam Newton Patriots were threatening to shock us at home. Even going back to the Raiders and Buccs games in McDermott's first year we had critical turnovers right at the end. They being near the top of the league in defensive takeaways is a pretty safe bet. Them being at the top of turnover differential feels a much riskier proposition. I'd say this is exactly the inverse of your point about defensive turnovers. They definitely were hurt by it in the loss to Baltimore when the Ravens said openly that their plan was to give the Bills the outside and force them to win out there and the next week in Houston when without Shakir Josh completed nine passes in 60 minutes of football. And in the AFCCG when they had the chance to go win the game and couldn't move the ball down the field. Is WR play stopping us being a division winner and a superbowl contender? Nope. Is it a factor that's stopping us getting over the top? Yep. Not the only one, sure. But it is one.

If these guys can all play that is definitely the case. The D needed an injection of younger talent, it got it. Now as long as these are not busts the defensive production simply has to be better than last year.

I have not argued they should have drafted a receiver on day 1 or 2 of this past draft. Nor was that what Jeremy and Joe were arguing. Indeed go to the Landon Jackson draft thread from Friday night and you will find me arguing against the people angry it wasn't a receiver. My point is a much broader one that is not focussed on this past draft and for all Brandon's protestations I'm afraid the numbers do not support him. The Bills, relative to the average level in the NFL under invest in receivers come draft time. At the end of the day 1 receiver drafted in the first three rounds across EIGHT drafts. 40 total picks in rounds 1-5 as Bills GM, only 4 spent on receiver. And the argument against your "but vets give Josh more security" argument is mid level vets also require salary cap investment. Gabe Davis and Kahlil Shakir gave up mid level vet or better production for a fraction of the cost on rookie deals.

Or in the 5th even. He went 4 picks before our pick. At that point our pick plus the late pick we used on Lundt would have got us up for him. And there were MULTIPLE teams that traded out in the 6 picks before Horton went. We absolutely had the opportunity to do it. We valued a Cam Lewis upgrade, a TE3, another boundary corner and a backup OT (all of whom I like as players btw) ahead of a developmental receiver.

So because we are in win now mode every year that is a reason not to prioritise receivers? Shakir is actually an argument to do exactly what some of us wanted him to do this year - take a shot on a day 3 guy with a skillset that can be developed. It isn't even just about this year - Shakir came on in year 2. Let's say they moved up a few spots in round 5 and snagged Tory Horton (who went 4 picks ahead, who the Bills spoke to twice including a 30 visit) maybe he only has 10 catches for 100 yards as a rookie in limited playing time.... but this time next year he is another young receiver in reserve who you can continue to develop. Samuel will be a FA after this season, Kincaid's option decision will be due and you have to look in the wider context at how your offensive weapons stock looks. No. I just think the Bills and Chiefs will always play nip and tuck matchups which come down to the final moments. The last three years we beat them in the regular season twice the defense made a stand to stop them in the end - with the help of Toney lining up offside in 2023 - and then Josh made an incredible play that was all about him in 2024. Even in those cases when it has come down to the end it isn't offensive weapons that have won it for us. It is defense and Josh being all world.

The problem is he is ALWAYS engaged because he is a non-separator. And I agree with @Einstein - he drops way too many balls for a guy who is allegedly a contested catch guy. His best role is a big slot. He is at his most dynamic and elusive with ball in hand.

No question. But as I keep saying I don't believe for a moment that if the Bills keep the Chiefs to 17 in a playoff game it will result in a 29-17 victory. We have played defensive battle type games with them in the regular season. 20-17 and 24-20. It always comes down to the end. If the Bills defense held the Chiefs to 17 points in the post-season they'd hold us to very similar. It's just how these two play each other. It always comes down to the end. It's about the key drives - on both sides. And while I don't dispute the defense hasn't made those key stops when it has mattered either, the last two years on those key drives at the end the offense despite Josh being Josh hasn't been good enough to get it done.

It's crystal clear we have had the ball at the end of the last two playoff losses and haven't got it done with an all world Quarterback. The defense needed upgrades, no question, but I remain unconvinced that we have the pieces when we really need them to go and score at the end of a playoff game for all the marbles.

The thing is you can justify every individual decision in a vacuum that prioritises something else over receiver but when you have spent one pick in the first three rounds on a receiver in EIGHT years, even if you want to include the trade for Stef it is only two in EIGHT years then you can start to make assumptions about their level of urgency and prioritisation of the position.

Three - Harrison Phillips.

For the Bills, on defense, not so much. 2024: 32 (3rd in the NFL) 2023: 30 (3rd in the NFL) 2022: 27 (4th in the NFL - despite playing one game fewer) 2021: 30 (3rd in the NFL) - - - - years below are 16 game seasons - - - - 2020: 26 (3rd in NFL) 2019: 23 (10th in the NFL) 2018: 27 (8th in the NFL) 2017: 25 (9th in the NFL) They have NEVER been outside the top 10 in takeaways under Sean McDermott. That is staggering consistency and says something about how well coached they are on that side of the ball. What was unusual about last season - and is unlikely to be repeated IMO - was their record low in giveaways. They have generally been around middle of the pack in terms of giveaways - averaging 20ish turnovers per year. Then last year suddenly they had a record low with 8 and when you couple that with their consistent ability to take the ball away on defense they suddenly rocketed to the top of turnover differential and that contributed to wins, without question.

My 53: Offense (23) QB - Allen; Trubisky (2) FB - Gilliam (1) RB - Cook; David; Johnson (3) TE - Kincaid; Knox; Hawes (3) WR - Coleman; Palmer; Shakir; Samuel; Shavers (5) OL - Dawkins; Edwards; McGovern; Torrence; Brown; Anderson; Grable; Van Demark; Van Pran-Granger (9) Defense (26) DL - Rousseau; Oliver; Jones; Bosa; Carter; Epenesa; Jackson; Sanders; Walker; Solomon (10) LB - Bernard; Milano; Williams; Andreeson; Ulofoshio (5) CB - Benford; Hairston; Johnson; White; Hancock; Jackson; Strong (7) S - Rapp; Hamlin; Forrest; Bishop; (4) Special Teams (4) K - Bass (1) P - Camarda (1) KR/PR - Codrington (1) LS - Ferguson (1) The guys in orange are the guys I have in genuine roster battles. I think on offense Gilliam could come under pressure if Hawes beats out Davidson for the third tight end job and they like him enough on teams, though my instinct is they keep both. Shavers is my WR5 at the moment by process of elimination if nothing else, he made a big play when he got his chance last year and is a genuine force on special teams. Solomon might be a victim of a numbers game at edge although a camp / pre-season trade of AJ Epenesa is very much a possibility IMO. A team who didn't get what they want at edge in the draft or who loses a guy in camp might be willing to flip you a future 5th round pick for a one year $6.2m contract with no long term commitment. Ulofoshio is in a battle with Spector and I don't totally rule out Spector winning or them both making it at the expense of an extra DL or DB. I have Dane and Dorian Strong making it right now but it might end up being one from two given Codrington is also essentially a corner and it would mean you are keeping eight even if Hancock is double hatting at safety and Codrington as a returner. I also think the two UB boys Lewis and Ingram are going to put up a hell of a fight to dislodge them.

Also despite his protestations to the contrary - that he would have drafted whoever was top of his board - he kinda gave himself away bit with "I didn't feel we fell short because of offense we needed defense." I mean he isn't wrong we needed defense. That McDermott-Frazier D is almost totally dismantled. There is only really Taron and Milano and Ed hanging on who were mainstays of that era. Last year felt like an in between D. Hopefully we just drafted some mainstays of the next era.

Oh good. Another Keon Coleman. I jest, I jest.... well, maybe a bit 😆 Who said Beane is an idiot? I didn't say that and to be fair to Jeremy and Sneaked Off Joe.... nor did they.

It doesn't always have to be a shootout. We have played 24-20 and 20-17 with them. They STILL came down to the last few minutes. I think if the Bills and Chiefs played 10 times 9 would be won inside the final 4 minutes or OT. You might get one where a team wins by a couple of touchdowns. The teams know each other too well. You are not gonna get a Buccs or Eagles like bludgeoning.