GunnerBill

Haha. I am not sold on the Bills being all in on Higgins, so no ❌️ from me! I do think he is better than you think he is. But I don't think he is completely what this team lacks. And I don't think we are in a spot in our cycle where we can spend top of the WR market on a player who isn't the ideal fit for what we need.

The problem with Elam was never lack of splash plays. It was lack of consistent making of the routine plays.

I was the same on Egbuka but the more I watch the more I like him. He has definitely grown on me. I do have a conscious bias that route runners are kinda my thing for the most part at receiver but I think he can play outside at the next level (and I mean predominantly outside, not take a few snaps out there) and win. That said, if the option is any kind of big trade up, no I'm not about that. He isn't worth the sort of price I'd have been happy the Bills paying for BTJ or Addison in the past two drafts IMO. If he got to say #26 and they want to jump in front of Baltimore (who could be a WR team if they cut Bateman) or Washington (who definitely could be a WR team) at the cost of a 4th round pick? Sure I could live with that. But wouldn't pay up any greater cost. Golden I have kind of gone the other way a bit. 10 days ago if he was there I'd have had a hard time passing, but the hands and the sloppy route running do concern me a bit. He is still on my shortlist at #30 if he makes it there but would depend on what was there at DL and corner. Interesting you have Higgins in your batch with Bryant and Felton. I have him a tier above them, and a day 2 pick, but testing will be big for him. If he runs slow I expect him to fall more into that early day 3 territory.

Diggs created plays. 100%. He was the best separator in football his first 2 years (and still very good year 3) here. The Bills did force feed him the ball, sure, but his ability to just get open down in and down out created plays. And you saw that when the drop off happened. Because he was still getting targets, they were still force feeding him the ball, but the production dropped off because he could no longer create to anything like the same extent. So the balls would be going to him but the coverage would be tighter and as a result fewer completions and less YAC. I don't think Higgins will create plays in quite that way, but he will make plays a lot of guys can't make, because he can catch balls that to a lot of receivers would be uncatchable.

Yep. I asked this the other day. Who is the last prime age, boundary receiver, as good as Tee Higgins to hit FA? I was honestly struggling for an answer. Maybe Mike Wallace from the Steelers? Possibly Santonio Holmes? Anquan Boldin? (removed Bolden he was traded from AZ to BAL)

I agree that I don't think Higgins is the ideal #1 receiver for our needs. He is a massive upgrade on what we have on the boundary but he isn't exactly the idea type. He is like a much better version of Gabe Davis. He is clearly a few talent levels above Gabe but in terms of style of player that is what you are getting. Where I disagree with you is on "he needs a #1 opposite him." As a rookie, playing with a rookie Joe Burrow and backups when Burrow went down he put up 908 yards and 6 TDs as a #1, that was pre-Chase. Then in 2022 the four games Chase missed Higgins stepped up had 2 solid games and two monster games, including a 148 yard day against the Steelers. I actually his production has been held back slightly by being on a team where Chase dominates targets. I think he will prove himself an a legit #1 receiver wherever he ends up. Probably someone who is 11-15 territory rather than top 10, but a legit #1.

They didn't though. Whaley's was negotiating with Hue Jackson's agent the night before Rex was hired. Terry Pegula made that decision.

Maybe it is. But I promise you if you said that in a locker room in this country it would go off. You'd have a mass brawl in seconds. I think your mistake there was watching Guy Ritchie movies.

Ha. Try coaching semi-professional football in East London where at least half your players are involved in some sort of gang or other. I've coached players who've ended up in prison for attempted murder. I never heard any of them threaten to hit a teammate's mother to motivate them. And if they had all hell would have broken loose.

Let's be honest.... a guess is a guess. He could last 5 years, he could last 10 years, he could have a serious injury in the season opener and never be the same again. We just have no idea. It's not something I spend time worrying about.

Buddy was GM in name only in 2013, the power had already passed to Whaley and Buddy was allowed to retire gracefully a few weeks later. But to be fair to Monos he didn't arrive until after Doug took over formally so he had no hand in Manuel.

I don't agree. I played and coached a reasonably high level of competitive sport without ever using the threat of slapping someone's mother to motivate them.

Whether it was intended or indeed perceived as bullying by Jonathan Martin in this specific case we need to improve a culture that allows that sort of toxicity to prevail, regardless.

What do you think he is? That is what I struggled with. I'm not sure he quite has the burst or agility to project to a true outside 9 tech type pass rusher and I don't think he plays with enough leverage to be a 5 tech DE in a 3-4. I ended up thinking he might fit best as a 6/7T base "big end" in a 4-3 - a guy who plays the run really well and gets you 5-6 sacks a season.

When I was asked to go back and look at who I've mocked to the Bills over the years since Josh it is really staggering. I had them trading back into the end of 1 for DK in 2019, taking Higgins in 2020, taking Olave in 2022, taking Addison in 23, taking BTJ last year. Of those obviously the last 3 didn't get to them although Addison and BTJ definitely got into trade up range. But I've had receiver as a need before Diggs signed, while he was here and after he left. And the Bills just have not shown that urgency.

I am fine with Shakir at $15m AAV so long as their plan for the boundary is draft a guy. If their plan outside is trade / FA then not sure if Shakir fits.

It feels slightly the wrong way round to me to not be willing to go up for Addison and BTJ but then go up further for Egbuka. But there we are.

Oh the 2014 Bills definitely win more games and make the playoffs with Josh. For sure. I think McDermott makes less impact on 2014 than he does on 2015 too because for all his faults Marrone provided pretty stable coaching in 2014. He coached a pretty good season (aided by Schwartz in particular). 2015 the coaching was a clown show.

Oh the 2014 line was worse. We couldn't run it at all and it couldn't really pass protect.

Are you spying on me? 😃 I ask because I spent an hour this morning going back over Egbuka and I think I am moving him up to my WR2. I think after McMillan if you told me there was one receiver in this draft most likely to be a true #1 in 3 years time I would say it would be him. My concerns with him on a first watch were I don't see explosiveness. When I watch again I wonder if I am just not appreciating it because of how smooth he is and I know I made that mistake with Garrett Wilson in that same offense. I liked Wilson plenty fine but I didn't have an elite grade on him like I should have because I didn't see a lot of suddenness and I realised sometimes with guys who are this smooth in their route running and their breaks it is easy to miss the explosion. I think his 3 cone, his broad jump and his 40 time are going to be relevant to the evaluation on him. If he tests well on the explosiveness drills I will definitely end up with him as WR2 and might even end up with a 1st on him (indicative 2nd currently though within my top 32 - remember grades and round predictions not the same). So in answer to your question, let's put a pin in it and revisit after the Combine. It might be a yes.

I think late 2nd, nobody. The other WRs in that sort of range are more slot guys IMO. I think you are looking at late 3rd round / 4th round maybe into the 5th round for the next batch of perimeter players. Tai Felton, Maryland is someone worth keeping an eye on he has some speed, as is Troy Horton, Colorado State. Pat Bryant, Illinois is more a big bodied long strider but I think has a chance to be a legit boundary player (he just isn't maybe the vertical separator we need) and Will Sheppard from Colorado who might be second half of day 3 but I like his separation skills.

Oh I think there is quite a big difference between Rice and Shakir. But let's see how Rice looks post injury. He was averaging 96 yards per game through 3 games this year. I think he was gonna have a monster year before the injury.

Savion Williams is yet another big slot IMO. If we are picking a WR it HAS to be a true boundary guy IMO.

Oh you could definitely do worse. All 4 are very good players. The question is whether there is enough further improvement in them all to come to make it worth the opportunity cost of spending that money at other spots. Because as you identify at the start of your post only one of the 4 - Benford - plays a premium position. The ideal way to fill slot receiver, middle linebacker and running back are with one contract guys you draft between rounds 2 and 5 get great production out of and then recoup a pick in the comp formula when someone else pays them, or solid vets who come off other teams after their rookie deal and ideally have been slightly miscast in their roles so come at a bargain price - see Zach Baun in Philly this year

He had a 75% success rate in man in 2024 (that is regular season don't have a breakdown in playoffs). That isn't quite elite (his numbers in zone are elite) but its pretty good. In terms of separation allowed in man coverage in 2024 he was pretty much on par with Trent McDuffie and better than Sauce Gardner (though asked to play fewer man snaps than both I should say for the sake of full transparency.) I honestly think what this thread tells me is Benford's 2024 performance is very much still underrated by Bills fans and I think it is because he was a 6th round pick. Had he been picked round 1 and put up the same performance he did in 2024 I don't think anyone would be questioning whether he is worth what he is gonna get paid. But because he went 6th round and we have seen McDermott get serviceable play out of the likes of Wallace, Jackson, Hamlin as late day 3/UDFA guys the presumption is just Benford is a slightly better version of that kind of system player. But athletically he is much closer to Kaiir Elam (a first round pick) than he is to any of those guys and his production is closer to peak Tre White (it isn't quite there but it's close) than to any other corner that has been through here under this regime. Now the concussions are separate to that. I think 2 concusions in 2 weeks or a recurring concussion or a hit on an unrecovered concussion or whatever it was in the AFCCG is a legit reason to be wary of committing big money to him. You gotta be totally comfortable with his health situation before you extend him. Makes me more lean to let 2025 play out and then as long as he stays healthy tag him before FA and give yourselves time to work out a long term deal.