PolishDave

Who says we have a good defense?

Really bad sign without a top 10 defense.

If they take those deep plays out of the game plan, I would bet this team starts looking bad on offense. And without threatening defenses deep, you would have to assume the running game would suffer from it immensely. I am not a big fan of strategies that involve teams needing to execute 12+ plays correctly to score a touchdown. If Dennison is that kind of guy, I will hate him. I don't think it is reasonable to expect an offense to execute that many plays properly in every drive in order to get 6.

Imagine how bad this is going to look on Beane if the Bills can't move the ball well this year passing. Or if this offense lacks the deep passing plays. Even if it is not primarily because of that move, it sure isn't going to reflect well on that decision. He will get a big chunk of the blame for it. Pretty ballsy move for a new GM if you ask me.

I bet that if Bledsoe never gets injured, Brady ends up going to a different team. What happens then? Anybody's guess. Does he still become a starter and have a great career? I say high probability yes. Does he become the GOAT? Doubtful. Circumstances had to align for him to become what he has become and to achieve the success he has achieved. Same can be said for Belichick. I highly doubt he is still a head coach in the NFL if it wasn't for Brady. Perfect situation. Perfect timing. And they made the most of it.

Really? How come the GOAT Brady needed an injury to force his playing time. They had the GOAT on the bench. Surely he should have been starting over Drew. Plenty of excellent quarterbacks have had to ride the pine for years before getting their shot. No way in hell, Taylor was getting a shot in Baltimore unless something catastrophic happened to Flacco. As was pointed out - no coach is going to sit a proven Franchise QB that was just signed to a $100 + million deal like Flacco was. It just ain't gonna happen unless there is an injury or the guy goes Kuoandjio. You are exactly right.

You know this thread is going to resurface after game 1 when McDermott chooses to punt from inside the other team's 40.

Ask the OP. I merely pointed out that changing 10 of 22 players is a big deal. It is almost half the team. Even if it is only 9 starters. Still a big deal. This is a substantially different Bills team. Might be better. Might be worse. My guess is worse - but I am wishy washy about it. My hope is better. Your scenario is plausible. I just think it is unlikely. Mainly based on the fact that Tyrod's history with "new" receivers is poor. It appears that he is not comfortable throwing the ball to guys he doesn't really trust. However he does often throw to the guy he trusts implicitly - Which was Watkins. Maybe he comes to trust one of the new guys that much early on. I am doubting that big time. And if the other teams start getting a pass rush, I think it is very likely we see Tyrod in run mode even more than we saw in previous years - which is going to piss off most of the fan base. And it is going to result in a lower scoring offense in my opinion if that does happen. OR maybe he comes out slinging the ball like he trusts them all. Who knows. Last year suggests he won't. Maybe it was the coaching and/or play calling though. Don't know for sure.

Love your optimism. You may have put too much Irish Whiskey in your coffee though.

I don't know if they'll be better or worse on offense. Could go either way. I think they will pass more often which is a good thing. However, I worry about the lack of chemistry between Tyrod and any of the receivers. Maybe that chemistry develops quickly. Hope so. Because this Bills team's passing game looked like complete and total garbage last year in games when Tyrod only had receivers he had no chemistry with. Maybe that doesn't happen this year. I don't know. I am guessing it might be an issue based on last year as an example. But who knows - maybe Clay will become his new favorite receiver and that could be a good thing. 3 receivers, FB, OL - That is how I arrived at 5 - Maybe Glenn plays - don't know. He has not been very reliable.

5 different starters on offense - 5 different starters on defense - that is almost half the team dude. His post does make sense. Why do you keep calling the one guy Grimes? Isn't his last name Gaines? I get what you mean. You would think if you just fixed Rex's biggest mistakes that the Bills would be more competitive this year than last. You might be right. I don't think it really works that way though. Different year. Different schedule. Teams are more prepared against you if your scheme is identical. Bills were/are unlikely to remain that dominant in the run game. Although I think their passing game was ready to take it to a new level towards the end of the season. If that passing game took that step forward, you would likely be right. This team would have been substantially better yet. The things the Bills have going for them in these early games is the unpredictability of the style of play and play calling. Let's hope the new guys in the new system get clicking early on.

So the dead cap is irrelevant to him then if it was already paid. Point taken.

If I am wrong please explain why. My understanding is that the Bills were going to pay Sammy that $5.6 (dead cap money) regardless of whether he played here or anywhere else in 2017 because it was guaranteed. Is that not correct?

Yeah but you aren't accounting for all the other threads the same discussion is happening in. There's a bunch.

I get your point And I agree about not trying to win now at the expense of the future. I want the Bills to be dominant year after year as often as possible. You also don't want them to give up more one year than what they are going to get back the next year. The Bills were paying out the Watkins money this year whether or not he played for the team. They could have paid for him to play for them and make them a lot better on offense (my opinion). Instead they paid him to go play for somebody else. In exchange they get to pull a name out of a hat in the second round next year and lose the opportunity to do so in the 6th and probably 3rd round. I don't think that is a fair trade. Not considering what they lost "this season" in exchange for it. Whether he played for the Bills or not this year, the Bills would in no way be forced to end up in a bad cap situation next year because of Watkins. They could have let him walk for a comp pick. They could have traded him later this year once their shot at playoffs was eliminated. Or perhaps they could have traded him for a lot more capital once he started balling out and some other team had a number one receiver go down. Next years cap is completely irrelevant to this year as Watkins would not be under contract after this year. It is a terribly lousy explanation and reasoning for this move. If they were getting out of a long term contract with the guy where they were saving cap space, it would make more sense. But they're not. They save zero cap by this trade. Zero this year. Zero next year. The cap argument is a farce.

Yep. Things are likely going to look quite a bit different at the end of the season compared to now. Many variables. A lot of people will changes their minds about what they are thinking right now.

You are basing decisions off of 2018 while throwing away the 2017 season. I don't want to throw 2017 away because I paid thousands of $$ for tickets to watch the team try to win a championship - even if they fall short. When you downgrade talent - it is hard to make the case that you are honestly trying to win. Its bull ****. And everyone knows it. One of the most exciting things leading up to the start of this season for me as a fan (and many others I have talked with) was going to be seeing this offense with a fully healthy Watkins. Beaner just pulled the rug out on that.

I am not sure where I was unclear. I keep him. He competes for starting job with drafted rookie and whoever else. I keep Peterman regardless. I draft a QB unless I am convinced Tyrod or Peterman is going to make the team a perennial contender. Just because Tyrod won me 2 playoff games, I may or may not be convinced he can get me there year after year for years to come and confident enough he can lead the team to a Superbowl victory. If I am convinced, I hand him the reigns. If I am not convinced, well then you got to keep trying to find that guy. The only thing that would remove all doubt is if Tryod seemed to magically become the best QB in the league and the Bills won the Superbowl this year.

Yep. It is also possible that the Rams pick will be a lot lower than you think. In the end it really doesn't matter. Still not enough for what the Bills gave up. I think Watkins stock will be way higher part way into the season than it is now. And even if it is not, having him for this entire year - balling out hard core for the Bills - would have been worth it. And that is regardless of what they ended up doing with him after the season.

You could have gotten a 3rd round compensatory pick from losing Watkins. He will very likely sign a big money deal with someone. All of a sudden that 2nd round pick doesn't seem like as much seeing that you also gave up a 6th. So a 6th and probably a 3rd for a chance to pick a name out of a hat in the second round next year. The more you go over it, the more insane the trade was. Only thing that justifies it is if Watkins gets hurt or otherwise underperforms drastically. And I wouldn't bet on the drastic underperformance in a contract year.

You weren't paying him that this year. The Bills just paid $5.6 million to kick him off the team. And they had to give away a 6th round pick for him to take with him in his gym bag. The Bills are paying Watkins to NOT PLAY for them this year. Smart huh?

There are also reasons just beyond his own production for why it made sense to keep him. He is one of 3 players on offense that defenders had to be primarily concerned about. Him, McCoy and Taylor. Now there is one less.

It is a very reasonable opinion too - because I think they proved that when Julio was injured. That team flat out sucked without him. They went from 13-3 season to a 4-12 season. Of course there is more behind it than just losing one player. But his injury was a part of it.

If the Bills made the AFC title game this year and Taylor played well, yep - you bet I keep him on the team. I probably draft a QB anyway unless I know that Peterman is going to win the Superbowl as the Bills starting QB. I would have to see what the options look like at the end of the season.

You obviously place more value on that second round pick than I do. I say it is nuts to trade away a known value product for a chance to draw a new name out of a hat. All picks are a gamble including whatever they do with that second round pick. And whatever they could have gotten from that 6th round and compensatory 3rd. The front office is revealing their mindset about this year's season - which is that they don't give a flying crap about how it turns out. I am tremendously disappointed in that mindset - especially considering how much I fork out every year for season tickets expecting them to try their hardest to win it all - even when it seems impossible. Beaner just traded a Ferrari for a Volkswagen because he didn't want to have to refill the tank in the Ferrari after he drove it a while.