BarleyNY

Two guards and a quarterback.

I only have this: Orton is still the best QB on the roster and he is a lot less likely to get a receiver concussed or otherwise injured by a throw that leads that receiver into a hit. Also, I think we all know what we have in Manuel. Sorry, but he's not a starting NFL QB. Hope and optimism are not warranted in his case. He is, at best, a long term project - almost certainly for some other team.

You are correct in that assessment. Arguing so much about the grounding penalty would make one think that it was the reason the Bills lost and that is completely false. Not being able to score a TD - even when starting at the Dolphins' 35 yard line - is the reason the Bills lost.

Your blue and red tinted glasses must effect your distance perception because it was a lot more than 6 yards away, but honestly I don't make the grounding call there. The rule states that there has to be no realistic chance for a receiver to catch the ball - no yardage away from a receiver is noted. On one hand I do think it was theoretically possible for Watkins to have missed a change in route due to the blitz. When the ball was released he had time to break outside to the area where it was thrown. On the other hand, Orton was clearly throwing the ball away to an empty place on the field to avoid a sack. He wasn't trying to get the ball to where Watkins was and failure to run a proper route doesn't excuse a grounding call. It's a judgement call and their judgement is defensible, even if I would have let it go. This doesn't even address the effect this call should have had on the game - or the one it did have on it. If the grounding call had not been made the Bills would've been punting from their own endzone and the Dolphins would've probably gotten the ball around midfield. As it actually played out the Dolphins got two points and the Bills got the ball deep in the Dolphins' end of the field. I'm finding it very difficult to blame this call for anything bad that happened to the Bills as the net result should have helped them.

If the NFL is fixed, then the Browns win the Super Bowl this season. Exactly 50 years ago the Browns won their last championship. No other major Cleveland sports team has won one since. (Sorry Crunch, that single indoor soccer championship doesn't count.) Now they are QBed by native Clevelander Brian Hoyer. It couldn't be teed up better for drama and heartwarming stories. The Jerome Bettis going home to Detroit to win a Super Bowl in his last game before retiring would pale in comparison. As a native Clevelander I hope this happens.

Here's the reality of the intentional grounding penalty. It was, IMO, a borderline call. But here's the killer - the Dolphins fumbled the free kick away to the Bills who then had the ball deep in the Dolphins' end. The Bills just failed to capitalize on having the ball in the red zone by (again) failing to score a TD, then missing a FG attempt. The Dolphins capitalized on some of their opportunities and breaks and the a Bills didn't. That was the whole story of this game - and consequently the season.

You must be confusing the 2013 and 2014 Ray Rice models with the 2012 and previous ones.

Exactly.

I couldn't disagree more. Right now the Bills have Orton - who is average-ish and little else at QB (unless delusions of Manuel progressing are still in play). Even if Orton can be good enough in the short term, the Bills still lack at the most important position long term. The time to find the QB of the future is while Orton can hold the fort down and they don't have to be rushed into the line up. And there's no guarantee that the Bills even hit the their pick. Why start looking when they're desperate again and wind up reaching (again)? Look for value in the draft, in free agency and even via trade. Find a guy who can be your FQB, find out if he is or not and repeat until you have him. There's no excuse for not starting this offseason. And don't jump the gun regarding who is going to be available. It's way too early for that except for the likes of Mariota and the like.

I think it's "White Castle".

Great illustration that shows how misleading it is to compare stats of QBs from different eras.

ESPN's QBR rating system tries to factor out some of the flaws in the standard passer rating. I'd be interested to see if there is a better correlation.

I think you mistyped "7".

Lombardi deserves credit for bringing Hoyer to the team, that was his call all of the way. Banner and Lombardi deserve credit for recouping a first round draft choice for Trent Richardson and for Greco as a FA. But beyond that they didn't do much positive for the team. They got a late round gem in Armonty Bryant, but whiffed badly on the early picks (and the other late ones). Barkevious Mingo anyone? Even the Pettine hire was Haslam's call. The UDFAs brought in by Farmer this offseason have been impressive.

Not with Houston, who drafted him. He was never a back up there after being named starter.

Those are not good examples because some, like Weeden, only started due to injury to their replacement and then were traded or released. More importantly, none were quality starters for the teams that benched them. Smith did very short term duty as a decent QB in SF and I guess you could make a case for Harrington, but if that's the best that has ever happened I think my point stands. Had time to check into your examples: - Harrington was benched in 2005 for Garcia, then after Garcia sucked regained the job later that season. That was his last season in Detroit. - Alex Smith did indeed get benched and return to the starting role in SF and he was fairly successful at the very end of his tenure there. Still, the team quickly moved on from him even after his best seasons there. - Matt Leinart was benched for Kurt Warner and was his backup that season and the next. He never started another game for Arizona. - Mark Sanchez was only ever benched during one game while QBing the Jets. He never lost his starting job until they got rid of him although he had injuries that kept him out of games. - Brandon Weeden got benched for Hoyer and returned to the starting lineup only after Hoyer got injured. Weeden continued his poor play, got benched again in favor of Jason Campbell and then was cut at then end of the season. So Alex Smith is the only QB who was in the situation I described and had any success at all. And he wasn't even deemed worthy of remaining the QB there. Sorry, I checked. It just doesn't happen.

I think a lot of casual fans like analytics because it gives them what looks like concrete information and allows easily determined (and defensible) decisions. You want to see over emphasized analytics? Just look at the incredibly short tenure of Banner and Lombardi in Cleveland. I've always been an advocate of using analytics as a piece of the puzzle with players, but it is a piece that varies in size. With a high first round pick it is nothing more than a check to make sure the player can transition to the NFL. By late in the draft I'm looking at the HWS guys at the top of the analytics board who are raw and leaning much more on that to find diamonds in the rough.

I've never heard of a situation where a QB was drafted in the first round, was named starting QB, failed, then was relegated to back up. Ever. It isn't a good situation for anyone. If a QB in his situation isn't capable of being the starter, then why keep him around? To groom? Does anyone here honestly think that all Manuel needs to turn into a quality NFL QB is a couple of years on the bench? I think I've seen enough. He will serve as nothing more than an easily replaceable backup who, if he is worth anything at all as an NFL player, will at least think he should be starting and will be a lightning rod for QB controversy. The best course of action is to get something for him and let him compete somewhere else. It's best for him. It's best for the Bills. Certainly sign a free agent like Bradford or Locker to compete with/back up Orton first. Pick up a rookie with some upside later in the draft or as a FA for third string. One important thing here - if Manuel stays you can forget another vet like Bradford. No way does a player like that come to Buffalo (or anywhere else) with that crowded of a QB roster. Not unless they are assured someone is on his way out. And, what? Manuel is such a high character guy he will sit third string like a champ? Don't know if Orton will opt out or not. If he's got whispers of bigger dollars elsewhere then he might opt out. That would change things obviously, but I think he stays here another year or two if he performs reasonably well. I just don't see him lighting it up and there being a big market for him.

I don't think the Bills can trade for a QB who was starting last season nor do I think they can sign one for big money without moving on from Orton. It is HIS option for the year. I don't do that for an oft-injured QB like Bradford. Now, if he is cut or if they want to pick up someone similar like Jake Locker for less than what Orton is going to make (plus maybe some incentives) then that's a different story. Fine. Great, in fact. I'm open to competition. Bring a guy in as a back up to Orton and let the chips fall. As for Manuel, I don't expect him to be on the team next season. Look for him to be traded. It is never going to be a healthy situation for him or the Bills with him on the team.

I actually see a beatdown this Sunday. The Vikes OL is not good and Bridgewater is a rookie QB facing a very, very, very talented Bills DL. I'm not sure anything else matters (DONT SAY REFS!). Expect to see the Vikes run, run, run, screen, draw, run, play action, run and run some more. If and when they have to pass regularly the game is likely over for them. The Bills offense just has to be decent, stick what they do best and protect the ball. No getting cute. Ditto specials.

I saw a review of team drafts, player by player, according to analytics and posted it here shortly after the draft. It was not a good draft for the Bills at all FROM AN ANALYTICS STANDPOINT. Considering that, I'm guessing he is gone or hasn't really had much of a voice in drafting.

I'm sure you remember, in detail, Orton's 2005 season performance. But it is really a moot point because whether or not Orton improved early in his career has absolutely no bearing on whether or not EJ can improve. I'm not saying that it isn't theoretically possible that he does, only that I've seen precious little evidence of it happening. I have seen him regress in some regards and not improve in others. That is far more germane to this discussion. One last thought. You mentioned missing out on Wilson. Having a halfway decent QB like Orton starting certainly opens up possibilities like that. It eliminates the glaring need at the position and allows the team to focus on value picks in lieu of reaching for a QB like they did EJ.

I'm not sure you can compare QB's stats from 10 years ago with QB's stats today. QB ratings and stats have improved dramatically due to the QB and receiver friendly rules. Also I think there are some real differences between Orton's Chicago team and this year's Bills. Then there is the question of growth. Has anyone seen EJ grow? I have seen him make off-season improvements only to watch him regress during the season. I know that he has not had that many opportunities overall, but it has been clear that he has not improved with regards to his accuracy, pocket presence or ability to read a defense. I think it was pretty obvious that his teammates - especially his receivers - lost faith in him as their quarterback. I don't think leaving him in as the starter was going to help the team or him. I think it will be difficult for him to be successful here in Buffalo and I expect that after the season he will find himself elsewhere. The Bills will recoup something for him and he will get a chance to be successful somewhere else, although I really don't see that happening in all likelihood. He just has too much to fix.

I'm just gonna say this about Orton: While he's not an elite QB he is good enough that the FO doesn't have to panic and make another EJ Manuel type of pick. He'll be 32 next month so I think he has a few years left in the tank. It's time to let the Bills next QB come to them in a draft. They now have the luxury of taking a guy they like a little later in the draft where there is more value. Look for them to try and find a guy who can sit behind Orton and learn. Think about the Hoyer/Foles kinds of guys.

With the PR hammering the NFL has been getting this sort of thing was easy to see coming. (In fact, my uncle called it a couple of weeks ago.) Lots of feel good stories are being pushed due to the domestic violence issues and their subsequent mishandling prominently displayed in the media. It isn't a coincidence.