BarleyNY
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Posts posted by BarleyNY
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It's early yet, but it does look like those who claimed that Dennison and TT were a perfect fit were very wrong.
Whenever I have seen TT at his best, it was when he was freelancing...playing sandlot style ball and running around.
I don't trust anything this guy does under center. I believe Roman had the right idea and system for him. Rex picked TT because of that very reason.
The new offense requires TT to do exactly what he isn't good at - throwing accurate anticipatory timing throws. It's to an almost whole new receiving corps, Clay aside. I'll give him that. But if early returns are an indication of the season in general, then we will be seeing Peterman.
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He played in 29 of 32 games in his 1st two seasons with over 2000 yards and 15 TDs in run oriented offenses under Hackett and Roman. Is that under productive? The fact that he's had a 2nd surgery to correct the Jones fracture (just like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, and Julian Edelman) and being able to go full bore in camp bodes well for him.
Cherry picking is weak. 3 seasons, 37 games, 153 catches, 2,459 yards and 17 TDs. Those are solid stats, it they're sure not elite. Even in his best season he barely broke 1k yards. That's not enough for a #1 WR so yes, its underperforming for that. He's obviously got talent, but he doesn't have the production to match. He very well might change that this season. It's his contract year so I'd bet he will do everything he can to produce. He'll probably have his best season yet. But I do not want any part of him long term because I expect him to be way overpaid with his second contract. I'm glad we aren't the ones that are going to give it to him.
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He was among the best if not the best receiver in the game the last 8 games of 2015.
He had a serious foot injury last season that from all accounts is now 100%. He was going to produce big time this year, IMO.
You keep him from FA next year by picking up his option.
Not sure who you've been watching the past dozen plus years, but this regime has been a mess for a longgg time. A couple of newbies doesn't change that until the results on the field change.
Wow. An eight game run two seasons ago. You've just proved my point. No one knows if his foot is fully healed and whether or not it can stand the rigors of a full season. It's certainly a risk. And until he can produce consistently he is what he is: A highly talented, but under productive WR.
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Pretty much. They didn't want to pay him if he had a big year which makes little sense. It's a pre Pegula move hence the Jauron/Levy comparison from BADOL.
The injury history is blown way out of proportion. He had a serious foot issue that looks to be healed. Otherwise he missed 3 games in 2015 and 0 his rookie year.
****. At least find out if he can stay healthy for another full season and see what he can do in a contract year before jumping the gun.
Id bet a lot of money he will be mostly healthy throughout the rest of his career and if Goff develops he will be a stud for years.
Couple issues with that.
1) Either injuries that he has played through have prevented him from producing more or he's not as good enough to warrant a big contract. And don't give me BS about it being scheme or QB. No OC leaves the kind of yards we're talking about on the field because the just feel like running the ball. Also WRs have done much better with much worse at QB. Hell, Josh Gordon led the league a few seasons ago in 14 games with hot garbage at QB for the Browns.
2) The only way to keep him from getting the free agency after this season was going to be the franchise tag. Sometimes going to go crazy and break the bank for him, but it'll be a big risk. It will probably be done by a team with a regime that is in trouble and won't have to deal with the mess if it blows up. This regime doesn't have to take that kind of risk at the present time.
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If this regime was willing to sign Watkins to a big contract even with a healthy, productive season then they'd have kept him. They moved on because they didn't like the risk (and/or attitude). It's over.
On a side note, Sammy fans seem to be getting through the stages of grief at a decent clip.
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was runner up as defensive rookie of the year....
Darby did not make the Pro Football Writers Association writer's short list for DROY runner ups (top 6), but he did win PFF's DROY award outright. Notably, Gaines was named to by the PFWA to their All Rookie team.
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I'm not saying send them rags for him but if they want our second let's go
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I'm sure they'd do that and probably even kick back a day 3 pick. They seem to be preparing to move on from him.
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i tell you what i wish we had the cap space for joe haden
I'd be the they'd move Haden, but would not be interested in Ragland. No place for him on Greggg's defense.
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Are you counting all the off season work Taylor and Watkins put in together?
I disagree,
I am trying to keep an open mind though ...
Stuff like that gets overplayed every year. "Look who's working out together" articles are nice fluff pieces, but rarely amount to anything on the field. Besides, it was highly unlikely that either was going to be here after this season anyway.
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The HC just chose his GM a few months ago. They're on the same page.Why not accomplish both? Other teams seem to remain competitive without gutting the team of talent and you want to know why?
Good coaching/systems IMO,
and a FO That lets the GM and HC do their job without interference...
As for competing, I'm not convinced that the Bills are any better or worse right now than they were right before the trades. They swapped a more talented, but less productive WR for a less talented, but more productive one. They traded a man coverage corner who had one good and one bad year for a zone corner that had one good, one injured and one bad year. Makes sense seeing as how we are a zone team this season. Plus they picked up draft capital in the process. You know, they might actually be better off in the short term and long term now that I think about it. Hey, they did do both.
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Sure , If they do what their told.
What if they've been told to build for the long run and for an eventual SB run rather than to expend capital to push to be one of 5 or 6 teams with a shot at a WC spot and an early playoff exit in the short term?
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West
Coast
Offense
Doesnt
REQUIRE
Stretching
The
Field
Vertically
That's incorrect. One of the fundamentals of the WCO is replacing some of the running game with short passes. But that isn't the whole system. Another fundamental is the use of Hi-Lo concepts in the passing game. A vertical threat comes in pretty handy for that.
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could be approach to trying to prevent injuries (stretching, etc)
Maybe. Still, it is odd to hear - especially from both. McD sure doesn't seem like a guy who'd let players slide on being out of shape.
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Kyle Williams is one of my all-time favorites but he is 34 and going to make $8.3 million this year to play football. I am 35 and get up every day at 5:00 am to grind out 45-50 hours a week for far less. I love the guy but I don't feel bad for I'm at all, at all. It's a business and if players don't like it, I really don't care.
/thread
If it's such a chore to for him or others to play now, they're free to retire.
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Zay J is my bet/hope
4.45 forty for Zay. Sammy ran a 4.43. Hopefully Zay adjusts to the NFL quickly. He certainly has the speed to play on the outside as an X.
Matthews at 4.46 and Jones at 4.45 for their 40 times most definitely have the speed to play outside. Boldin definitely is better suited for the slot, but I feel like his lack of burner speed wouldn't matter on the outside in the red zone.
Whoops. Didn't see that you slready covered Jones.
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Stop changing schemes every freaking two years.
Amen. Pegs going with Wrex and his 3-4, 2-gap read and react scheme while the team was already sitting pretty with Schwartz's top defense that played an attacking 1-gap 4-3 was a horrific mistake. Just Bush League.
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I do think they are aligned. I do think McD wants to win as many games a possible this year. But I think they are prioritizing rebuilding the foundation of the team so at some point this century they can win more than 9 games. We may not like some of the band aids they are ripping off in the process but there is most certainly an eye toward the future that hasn't been there in as long as I can remember.
Agreed. Now is the time for this new regime to mold the team into the type they want. They're getting rid of players that they don't want to keep - or can't keep. They've jettisoned and replaced pretty much the whole defensive backfield from last season. It had been one in transition from press zone, C2 to man, C0. Now we're moving to C3 with a lot of bail tech by the CBs. I didn't expect such a thorough house cleaning, but I can see why it was done.
Watson, however talented, is a huge risk. He has yet to produce at a level near his talent level and with one more season left on his rookie deal, there's a tough, risky decision in the near future. Sammy is going to get paid well by some team after this season, but it'll be a team who's regime is in trouble and doesn't mind taking a big risk. The stable teams won't value him as highly because they won't shell out big money for such risk. And that's why the Bills got what they could for him now - they aren't in a spot where they need to take big risks like that so they were moving on after this season anyway.
We only have intrigue because you're dreaming it up.
Also this.
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It's getting a little late for Indy still to be screwing around with this. They should've had a semi-viable or better QB (besides Luck) on their roster weeks ago.
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Probably had to get treatment on his chest during interview time.
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I don't understand this AT ALL. I don't know how you put a dollar value on a player for purposes of evaluating the player and the trades. These analytics must not consider Watkins' POTENTIAL, which is what we all loved and hated to lose.
Watkins' value takes a big hit due to him being in the last year of his contract. I'm not sure how Young valued him, but I'd bet it was a weighted average of his 3 seasons or at least the last two. Maybe even a linear regression that projects some improvement. I get fans' excitement over Watkins' potential - and that's okay for fans to do - but it's not how a GM should calculate a player's value. The best way is to assign probabilities to various realistic outcomes and take the weighted average. That factors in the risks of a certain player.
There's going to be a difficult decision teams are going to have to make on Watkins next offseason because of his mix of potential and risk. One GM is going to talk himself into paying Watkins based on the best case scenario. It'll probably be a GM or coach that is under pressure to win immediately and they'll take the risk because it'll either work out and help save their job or they won't be around when the mess needs to be cleaned up anyway.
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My money is on Ragland.
I could see a 3-4 team thin at LB having interest. Might not even be a bad idea.
Yup and yup. He's probably not a good fit for this defense. Some 3-4 team with need of a thumper at ILB will deal for him. This sort of thing is why I hate the coaching carousel here. 4-3 in 2014 to 3-4 in 2015 and 2016 and now back to 4-3. Rex's insistence on completely retooling a top 5 defense is still haunting us.
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Everybody who hopped on the trade Ragland train is missing one thing...
If he really is that bad that we have to trade him, nobody is going to give us anything of value for him
Especially not a mid round pick
If he's shipped out it will be for a 6th or 7th and I'd rather just have the depth
A big concern with Ragland is that he's a 3-4 ILB, not a 4-3 LB. He could legitimately have mid round pick value to a 3-4 team in need of a downhill, thumping ILB.
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This might help with your optimism:I guess I'm an optimist. But what I try to do most of the time is understand why management would do what it did. So I look for reasons that seem logical.That comes off as me sounding like I'm always supporting the team and their decisions. And I generally do support them, because as I think about why they might of done something, I come to understand the logic in their choice.But I actually recognize that some decisions work, and some don't. In this case, for example, I'm not saying that unloading Watkins was without question a good decision. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. But I can see why it fits what they're doing.My views are changing about player personnel. I think the coach is the most important guy on the team, the QB is second, and practically no one else matters. In particular, as much as I love watching them, I think great receivers are pretty much unimportant. Julio Jones hasn't won, Fitzgerald hasn't won. Julian Edelman is far from being in the conversation about great receivers, but he wins. So I've come to think that wideouts are a distraction.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NFLDrafter/status/896100220341174272
I can't figure out how to post a pic of the chart, but it shows Ethan Young's MAVEM calculation for the trade. It's an "analytics" style tool he developed to value trades involving draft picks. In short, the Bills cleaned up on these trades, adding $17.85M in value. It's further proof that Beane and McD are using analytic tools to build this roster.
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Not fair to players like McCoy, KW, Incognito or even TT.
Sal MaioranaVerified account @salmaiorana 1h1 hour ago
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The #Bills made the right moves yesterday. I know it's hard to believe, but I applaud. Here's my analysis http://on.rocne.ws/2wQCMBa via @DandC
A) The article is spot on, as is the OP.
B) Not FAIR to those players. That's ridiculous. I'm not even convinced this team changed its win total for the worse this season with these trades. Even if for the sake of argument I assume that it does, I'm at a loss to find any sense in that comment. Playing football is those players' jobs. If Kyle Williams is so depressed about the moves that he wants to forego his $6.3M salary and retire early, so be it. And would you have felt the same way if, instead of being traded, Watkins had gotten injured again?
Sammy will be a free agent. If healthy get him back.
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Taking the best case scenario as who a player is would be a horrible way to run a team. I can't tell you how many times people say things like "I'd take a healthy Sammy Watki s over..........". There's that qualifier so often. But you don't see it with those he's compared to because, you know, you don't need to. It's part of the package with him until he proves it isn't.
Also you're flat out wrong on the stats. 1k receiving yards would've ranked him 25th last season between Kenny Britt and Davante Adams. Are you telling me that they're elite receiver's? Or that 25th best is elite? Sorry. And that's not even his average season total. He's well below that.