BarleyNY
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Posts posted by BarleyNY
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Definitely a player I like and certainly worth taking a chance on at this point in the draft.
Looks like no Chad Kelly.
Bonus!
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That's the video he's going to send to players who ask for leniency after getting suspended.
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https://twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/858136468207882241
I knew the man was a monster, but I didn't know he was completely soulless.
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The whole article is certainly worth reading and there is more on the Bills trade, but here's an excerpt:
"The Chiefs sent the 27th and 91st overall picks in this year's draft to the Bills, but crucially, they were forced to throw in their 2018 first-round pick to seal the deal. That's an enormous haul for Buffalo. Given the Chiefs have consistently been a playoff contender under Andy Reid, let's be conservative and treat that future first-rounder like it's equivalent to the 24th selection in the draft. By the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart, the Chiefs sent 1,556 points of draft capital to the Bills, which is somewhere between the sixth and seventh picks. By Chase Stuart's draft value chart, though, the 33.9 points Kansas City sent to Buffalo are closer to the value of the first overall pick (34.6 points)."
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Let me tell you what "really happened." What really happened is the NFL too your "this Quarterback class is 2013 all over again" narrative and wiped its collective backside on it. That is what really happened. The Quarterbacks in this class were not slam dunks, but there are guys with franchise potential.
I told you months ago that a minimum of two and likely three would be first round picks.
I told you months ago that the first Quarterback off the board would be top 5.
I told you months ago that the choice to be that first Quarterback was down to Trubisky or Deshaun Watson at a time when you were claiming some teams had Kizer as the guy a top of their board because Walter freaking Football thought so.
You were taken for a ride by a selection of the media whose narrative on this class was way off base with what actual scouts, general managers and Head Coaches in the National Football League think. Now trying to point out that Houston was backed into a desperate corner? Poppycock. Jay Cutler is a free agent, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a free agent, Colin Kaepernick is a free agent.... if these teams genuinely thought this class was no good there are guys out there who have been serviceable starters in this league that a Houston could have gone and got and plugged in with their great defense and excellent run game. Chicago did go and get a serviceable bridge guy and still wanted to take a Quarterback out of this class rather than waiting to the mythical 2018 class. Kansas City I will concede is a little different - they took a flier on a guy to develop - but they thought he was so rare a development prospect that they trade up to get him. They don't think a Pat Mahomes is coming around again in the mythical 2018 class.
The narrative of what we were supposed to think about the 2017 NFL Draft Quarterback class was exposed brutally last night. 3 taken in the top 12 picks - something that hasn't happened for FIVE years.
You can't read anything into where the three top QBs went for one very good reason - three QB needy teams traded out of the slots where they were picked. How high those QBs went was more a function of GMs and HCs under pressure to win now reaching for possible solutions for their QB problem. The 3 teams that traded back are SF (new HC and GM), CLE (second season of overhaul) and the Bills (new HC running the show). See a pattern?
The Bears have a new group in place, but what they gave up to move one slot for Trubisky tells you all you need to know about their level of competency. The Bears are the new Browns. KC and HOU have pressure to step up into the playoffs and both are missing a high quality QB (although Smith is decent). They all reached and the more secure groups took advantage of their desperation.
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Still waiting for Moneyball to put up any banners....
So many Moneyball banners went up in baseball that it's used to some degree by every team now. It looks like it just got to football, but I'd argue that what the Patriots have done for years looks a lot like what the Moneyball teams are doing now.
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By some people's bitching you'd think the Bills had LOST draft value over the first two days. One of the reasons draft pick value is accumulated is so that a team can maneuver to get wanted players that have good value relative to where they are available. IOW, if a player falls a team that has extra draft capital can go get him.
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3 starters with first three picks
Extra first next year and 4-7rds are a crap shoot
We HOPE the top 3 picks are all starters. Not every player pans out and few step in and start out of the gate. CB has quite a learning curve. If White is starting at some point in the season and playing well by the end, then he's doing very well. Ditto Jones, as WR probably carries an even steeper learning curve than CB. If he's a productive starter by 2018, then he's doing well. If Dawkins starts at RT and is solid next season, then that's a huge win. If he can't hack RT and eventually is a quality starter at OG, replacing Incognito in a season or two, then it was still a good pick.
Not that these players won't get thrown in early or that one can't be way ahead of the typical curve, but they'd be an exception. Expect some real struggles early if these guys have to start immediately. McD is playing the long game here. Reasonable expectations, people.
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If it never follows him on the field in a negative manner, how is it bad?
Agreed. Non-story. People forget these draftees are kids.
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There are different ways to value draft picks. The Bills look to be using the Harvard methodology rather than the Jimmy Johnson chart. That's a sign. That would lead them toward clustering their picks where they did in this draft as well as favoring accumulating future high picks. Look at what Cleveland is doing. That's this method in full force. They're going to continue to roll one of their 1st round picks into a current year high pick and another future high pick. They already have two firsts and three seconds next season.Can you elaborate?
How do you know analytics played a role in us drafting these guys?
Then there are the players chosen. Two are players that are high on the SPARQ scale and one was average on it.
I'll find some links and put them in this thread.
This explains the difference in draft pick valuation:
https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/
Here is a link to the SPARQ scores and it has links to more general info on that valuation of players:
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While suspended for the year
http://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2017/04/29/dallas-cowboys-randy-gregory-failed-drug-test-marijuana-weed-7th-test-tmz-suspension-goodell-legalize-jerry-jones/Don't waste high picks on players with known drug issues.
I feel shocked!
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We will run more 5 DB sets then 3 lb sets
LB is not as important as everyone thinks
Having TWO quality LBs is important. That third one just needs to be serviceable. Nickel and Dime package use will likely be North of 70% this season.
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Guessing they hope is that he will be capable of playing RT and he will compete there first. Moving him to backup OG to eventually replace Incognito is the secondary option if he can't. That's either great or good value in the 3rd round if he can do either.
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The issue with this is you are using the assumption that the #1 next year is worth a second this year - therefore both the Browns and Bills that picked 1st rounders next year look bad.
If you keep them as 1st round picks they balance out - there are notes going both ways, but it seems obvious that the teams do not see the future pick the way you do.
To add to this: There are many charts, valuation methods and variants. The Jimmy Johnson and Harvard charts are two big ones. Most methods (but not all) discount future picks. The one round rule is often modified for the first two rounds by breaking the first round into 3 parts and the second into 2. For instance, a future pick expected to be a mid 1st would be discounted to a late 1st round pick's value.
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High on SPARQ rating. 6th on WR list. Don't know much about him beyond that. Judging by the trade and first two picks, it sure looks like McD is down with analytics.
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Genius is a bit much, but the Bills did very well for themselves last night. Quality trade and quality pick. Here's a good article that discusses the trades for QBs last night:
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Will be going to Barleys house - he's slow cooking (smoking / souvid - is that how you spell it) some delicious meat and making sandwiches out of it...so I'll be going there and eating all of his food and cheering like hell when the bills draft Mahomes (one can dream).
And drinking delicious craft beer...gonna be a great Thursday
It's not a party without Pat! (You were close, its "sous vide")
Oban tops my list but I do own some land at Laphroaig
I've got my square foot there too!
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I'm not sure but did we get a 5th round pick from New England this year or next years draft for Gilislee???? Any know?
Yes, we now have 156, 163 & 171.
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Super deep and flat draft. Prospects that usually would be late first to second round picks will span from early first through the top of the fourth. Tons of players that are great fits in certain systems will have much higher value to some teams than others. Add in no slam dunk QB and it's a really fun mess. Teams that really did their homework will be able to work this draft.
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Friends coming to my place. Going to be some great beer and food here.
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Looks like McD will be driving the bus on this draft so I'm a lot less certain of how the Bills will play it. It'll be interesting. Anything goes as far as strategy and players/positions being targeted.
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In-N-Out
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They have a declining viewership because they no longer have a stranglehold over the podium. As viewership habits change (2016 showed a massive shift in people dropping cable TV), ESPN has not adapted and is not present where people watch things. In addition, they now face more competition than ever before with video content being cheap and easy to produce.
And they paid a boatload for a bunch of long term contracts for broadcast rights to live games. They paid several times the going rate for their NFL games, for instance. But many people are cutting the cord now. ESPN carries the highest charge of any non-premium channel and their set of channels is a relatively large portion of the cable bill. Non-sports watchers are bailing on the cable and dish companies and are no longer subsidizing the sports watchers. That equates to less casual sports watching from the cord cutters which means less ad revenue from viewership. It's been snowballing for the last couple years.
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Would love to see full game film of this kid. I've seen this highlight reel already and I'm very impressed. Based on JUST HIGHLIGHT footage I like him more than any other QB in this draft. I don't know what the rest of his film looks like though. I think we will see him go much higher than the 7th round/priority UDFA range that I've seen him projected. I'd be ecstatic if the Bills took him.
Analytics view on QB trades
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Or Reid is overpaying on a trade and reaching on a QB prospect because he's being pressured by ownership to get over the hump and really compete for a SB. Such pressure can cause individuals to take riskier chances than they otherwise would. In this kind of scenario a GM or HC takes a big gamble on a QB prospect with a high ceiling, but a relatively low chance of success. But it still gives them a chance to keep their job and that's better than the alternative which is building the roster and taking more reasonable risks with slightly lower chances of a payoff. What does it matter to that HM or HC if he gives up future picks? If it doesn't work, then he's out anyway and someone else has to deal with it.