Kirby Jackson

This was more of a narrative than reality. The Bills didn’t have a cap issue. They had a roster that they wanted to turn over. In order to get different players in they were going to have to create dead money. They could have built around the current roster at the time. The decision that they made was that they wanted to hit the reset. It’s not because the cap forced them to do it (like the Falcons). That was what they wanted to do to build the roster. Beane just used the “cap jail“ argument to sway people to be patient. He didn’t want to alienate people when their favorite player was somewhere else. He told them “I don’t want to do this, I have to.” The reality is he didn’t have to. He knows that most people don’t really understand that. Just because he said that it didn’t make it true. He used it as a way to sell the public on his plan. It certainly looks like the right decision.

I don’t necessarily agree with you but I applaud you for elaborating and defending your position. This place functions so much better when people explain “why” they feel a certain way.

He’s -350 now. If I can get Lance at +1000 I’m going in big. As the scouts in the media that I respect most have started digging into his tape they LOVE him. Miller, Jeremiah, etc... I want in before the secret is out. Yep

Agreed, 20:1 felt like a steal. I’m also trying to find a line on Trey Lance to be the 1st overall pick next year. I already got Ja’Mar Chase at 50:1. Lance isn’t even listed currently on Bovada. I want to get my bet in before the hype train goes insane.

Ha ha, I’ve spent the last few weeks betting Korean Baseball and Bundesliga.

I’m locked in at McDermott +2000 to win COY and Bills +130 to win the AFC East. I also have a small bet on the Bills to win the Super Bowl at +4000 because I have to.

I guess that my philosophy is a little different when it comes to the draft and the cap. Good teams are comprised of stars. You have to pay stars. It is the middle and back of your roster that gets replaced with draft picks not your expensive stars. You let guys like Long go and draft a guy in the 4th or 5th to play that role. You let a guy like a mid-30’s Hughes go and slide Epenesa into that slot. You pay your stars in their prime.

Kirk Cousins is the only real example that I can think of. It’s not like he took less either he just played under the franchise tag multiple times. He punted on the long-term guaranteed money. Newton’s deal was right around where it was going to be at that point. If he would have played under the 5th year option his deal would have been much bigger so it was a good deal for the Panthers.

Can you think of one example in the last decade of a guy taking less than market value on his 2nd deal?

Lol, these guys sign non-guaranteed deals and have like a 5 year earning window. Why would any reasonable person not maximize their window? They all do (and they should). I do the same thing with my career.

If he was comfortably a starter I’d listen. I actually don’t think Trubisky is as bad as people think. With that being said PFF has admitted to trolling Bills fans for clicks (ie Duck over Allen). They did the Trubisky thing and then just picked Allen. That way if Trubisky never plays again they can fall back to “well we did say that Allen would have a better career.” I actually would have respected it more if one of them picked Trubisky. Anyways, I digress from the thread. I don’t have an issue with Orlovsky thinking that but I don’t agree with him.

Yeah, I would have had no issue with the Trubisky question 1 year ago. It isn’t reasonable at this point though to ask “who will have the better career?” Trubisky may not even start. That’s a troll move. I’d listen to Tua or Allen though.

I get that Allen is a polarizing player. Some in the media love him (Simms, Schein, Kiper) and some don’t (Orlovsky, pff). I don’t take issue when there is a reasonable take (ie Tua and Darnold are better). I don’t necessarily agree but I understand the logic. I take much greater issue when pff asks “who will have a better career Allen or Trubisky?” They know damn well that Trubisky may never start another game. That’s not reasonable imo.

I think Trevor Lawrence is better than Nathan Peterman...

You are probably right. I didn’t look up The specifics of his contract but that would make sense. It would be a great goodwill gesture even without the extra year (although I’d prefer it). That’s the kind of thing good organizations do.

The new CBA makes it virtually impossible to hold out. If you are gone for 5 days you lose an accrued season. Players will see substantially bigger fines for holding out and under the new CBA the team cannot waive that fine when the player shows up. So your concern isn’t applicable under the new collective bargaining agreement. They will probably try to extend him in a couple of years but the ball is in the team’s court now. I really don’t think that the Bills spent much time thinking this over. Beane talked about the need for someone to walk in the door ready. He also talked about not being able to get high enough in the draft to get one of those guys. He tried to trade for Diggs during last season and now was able to get him. The Bills love the player. The Bills had a desperate need at the position. The Bills didn’t have the ability to get a comparable player in the draft for the same assets. He’s on an extremely team-friendly deal. I really don’t understand why people think this was difficult? If he had a shot at the top 3 maybe he would have rolled the dice but he knew that he couldn’t get one of them for the cost of the 18th pick. If your only real need is a number 1 wide receiver you should not hesitate to trade away the equivalent of pick 18 for a number 1 receiver. This holds especially true if said receiver is 26 years-old and on one of the best contracts in football for 4 more years. Each decision is different. KC traded their first round pick last year for a player and won the Super Bowl. They had a need and filled that need with a proven commodity.

You need to cut everyone some slack. We are new at having a good roster ?. We really don’t know what to do. I am going to say it loud for the people in the back. The Bills can afford (and pretty easily) to retain all of their top players. We need to understand the difference between and average annual salary and a cap hit. They are not the same and in many cases those numbers aren’t even close. They can keep Allen, Edmunds, Diggs, White, Hyde. Dawkins, Milano, etc... That does not mean that they will decide to keep all of those guys but they can. What you are going to see over the next few years is some of the older veterans turn over and get replaced by younger guys. You’ll see guys like Hughes, Addison, Star, Norman, DiMarco, Long, Feliciano, Nsekhe, Brown, Beasley, etc.. as the guys that don’t sign their next deal. They will be replaced by younger players and/or vets that were like them when they came to the Bills. Now there is some valid concern about the salary cap plateauing because of Covid. That’s a reasonable fear but it doesn’t appear likely IMO. The league is still planning on a full schedule with fans (that feels like wishful thinking but that’s the plan). Even if it is a modified version of that they won’t get hit too badly with the extra playoff games this year. Next year they add that 17th game and the players are going to be getting a bigger percentage of the revenue. The league will find other sources of revenue whether it be streaming or international money to offset any potential losses. They probably won’t get it all back at once but will put a dent in it if it gets to that point. Lastly, they will do what teams have done, and kick the can down the road if necessary. They aren’t going to drop the cap $75M for 2021 despite Schefter’s speculation. It’s just not logistically possible with the guy’s teams have under contract. In the absolute worst-case scenario they will spread those potential losses over a few years (maybe 5) and then find new/more revenues to offset them. The cap is $209M this year. I’ll go on record as being surprised if we see it below $200M at any point. As an aside, I just stumbled across this 2021 salary cap health breakdown that Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap did. Figured it fits well in this discussion: https://overthecap.com/2021-nfl-team-by-team-salary-cap-health/ After a quick glance at 2021 I think that it’s likely that the following guys won’t be on the roster after this year: Hughes or Addison (only 1), Butler, Lee Smith, Hauschka, and Long. Then I think that Matakevich and/or Klein are maybes. The rough projected cap space was $52.7M before these moves. With just the “likely” guys going that number moves to about $77M. If you bring in the 2 maybes the number goes to $82.5Mish. Again these are estimates but as you can see the Bills are in a good spot.

This is why we can’t have nice things

Oh I think that they could regress but I’m not sure that they can win less than 10 games no matter what. They could take a step back, and a fairly significant one and be an 11 or 12 win team. The AFC South and the NFC East isn’t exactly murder’s row. Add the Pats to that and their path is pretty clear. I think that their division is better but even if they go 4-2 there and lose to the Chiefs there aren’t a lot more losses floating out there.

Baltimore has the easiest SOS in the NFL.

The difference is Diggs is a proven commodity. If any of the other 3 get to his level we will call them a success. How long until they get there? The Bills window is right now. Even if one of those guys becomes great it was a good move. The risk and cost was greater than with Diggs. The chances are extremely long that all 3 end up better than Diggs. So it wouldn’t even be about trading up it would be about trading up (which cost more than Diggs) AND finding the guy that’s better. The juice was definitely not worth the squeeze which is why it made so much sense. If I’m wrong I’ll own it but the chances of looking back at this as a “bad deal” for the Bills are extremely slim (to none). Now if we want to judge any guys picked from 22 and after we are still assuming that we would have picked the right one if one ends up better. As an example, if Michael Pittman becomes a star we shouldn’t regret this trade unless he was going to be the selection not an option. It’s like the year that the Bills didn’t take Michael Thomas. They didn’t take Treadwell or Doctson either who went before Thomas. We can’t just retroactively select the most successful guy and say that’s what we should have done. You don’t get the benefit of hindsight while drafting. You do get the benefit of a resume though when trading for Diggs.

I think that the Bills were in a position where they needed a number 1 receiver, not “a” receiver. They gave up the equivalent of pick 18 to get a number 1 on a team-friendly deal. The cost to move up for one of those potential #1’s was greater than Diggs. This trade is a no-brainer in the situation that the Bills were in.

I’d try to do EXACTLY what the Cowboys have done. They have something like 9 of their best 10 players under contract through 2022. I would sacrifice contracts for guys like Klein, Butler, Long, Murphy, DiMarco, Norman, etc.. and play young guys there. I’d attempt to lock up Tre, Dawkins, Milano, Edmunds, Oliver, Allen (hopefully), and Diggs. Keep your stars and fill out the middle and back of your roster with young players.

Most of these guys made a lot more than that at the elite programs (and I say this only half-jokingly).

If I understand it correctly the rankings are their likelihood to win the Super Bowl based on the model. On paper the Bills have an easier schedule than the Pats which is why they are division favorites but not ahead of them in terms of the Super Bowl. FWIW, I’m on record as the Pats being a 6 win team but that’s the logic I think. I agree here but give Pittsburgh and Cleveland slight chances at the Super Bowl. Things would have to go right in both cases but it isn’t impossible IMO. I’d give them combined less than a 5% chance I think (certainly less than 10%).