KeisterHollow

As far as I'm concerned, Buffalo (Nix, Marrone, and Co.) has performed a sort of semi miracle! For one, they exited round 1 with the QB of their choosing. All of us wondered which QB the Bills really coveted, which QB they thought was the real Franchise QB of the bunch - and now we know, without ever having to second guess ourselves. Secondly, they managed to not only get the QB they wanted all along, but they got NOT ONLY their 7th rounder back (way to go Nix), but they landed another 2nd rounder - which is the same as saying they came out of the first round with their choice of QB AND ANOTHER STARTER - so long as the guys they take in the 2nd round are starters. It really couldn't of gone better for us in the 1st round. I, by the way, wanted Barkley. But, I've said all along - these guys are the ones doing the work, the visits, they are the experts. What I was afraid of was that there'd be 2 or 3 QB's off the board by the time we picked, and we'd all have to accept the guy they ended up taking was the one they really liked all along. Now, however, we know who they preferred, and who can really argue with his potential (the way I see it, he's very similar to Cam Newton)? The fact that we ended up with an extra 2nd round pick is HUGE. We have a chance to leave this draft with a starter at QB, WR, ILB, and TE. As I said in an earlier post - if you swap ILB for CB, and bring in Dansby and Moore as FA's, we have a VERY competitive team going into the season. Round 1 - I like it. Go Bills!

Well, perhaps Nix should have gone into detailed specifics about where his roster is lacking, and which players need to be replaced or upgraded - maybe even laid out an order of which positions they'll address in the draft! Of course he's going to say that! He's been on the job for going on 3 years - if they aren't pretty close by then, he's not doing a very good job. Now, as to whether or not he really believes that, I think he probably has a better grasp of the Bills competitiveness in the talent department than anyone. I happen to think if Buffalo gets a truly good QB, another WR, a TE to go with Chandler, an ILB, and then an upgrade at G and CB - and we're able to bang with anyone. That's 6 positions. Let's say they get their QB with the 1st, a good WR in the second, a promising ILB in the 3rd, and a speedy TE in the 4th. After the draft they pick up Moore, for the Guard spot. Or, let's say they take a good CB instead of LB in the third, and after the draft they also bring in Dansby. All of a sudden they have talent and competition everywhere. There's reason to be optimistic - but they have to nail this draft. If they get near as I described above, I fully expect them to be competing for a wild card - this year. So, that's pretty close, eh?

I don't understand - Wilson's size is the same as Nassib's, Barkley's, bigger than Scott - I think. He's around 6' 2", 215 lbs. That's pretty common for the NFL. I'd be pretty stoked about this draft if it were to happen as such. I think I'd like a LB a little earlier, but nevertheless, Wilson is one of my top 3 QB's, and there'd be a lot of holes filled with this draft.

As far as I'm concerned, there are seven rounds and a bunch of UDFA's - and that's a lot of players overlooked by a lot of people. You hear so much talk about why the Bills should NOT take a QB in RD 1 - because, they say, the quality does not match the value, and if you miss on a QB in round 1, or a player in the top 10, regardless of position, you put your team back years. I ask this: if you take a QB in RD 1 and miss on him, but your 4th rounder turns into a pro-bowler, isn't that sort of a wash? What if your other picks are great, and you end up with 5 starters out of a particular draft, with a few pro-bowlers - does that mean that you set your team back years because you missed on the first pick? The answer is NO. If you look at GM's around the league, the average starters gained from a draft is about 3, and if you get one pro-bowler per draft (about where Ozzie Newsome is) then you're considered a good GM, if not very good. Now, it doesn't matter which round those players come from. That is something that is lost in the chatter, I think. Anyway, that is how I look at drafts. There are good enough players in every draft - and this one especially - where the Bills could be picking starters into the 4th round, and if they do their homework, and if everyone is on the same page, and they know what they're doing, they could find starters beyond that, as well. That is my biggest fear coming into this draft - not that Buffalo misses on any one pick, but that Marrone, Pettine, Nix, and Whaley are not on the same page, not united in their vision. Nothing could throw a wrench into our hopes for this season more than that, I think.

For sure, no one knows - and, unless someone has REAL inside info, no one is going to know. I believe anything that the media is saying right now is either speculation, or smoke screen. Face it, the pick is too important to be giving out hints or suggestions as to who the Bills like. Especially considering how tight lipped Marone is - which I truly appreciate. If they stay at 8, though, the more I think about it the more I believe they'll have a real hard time passing on Warmack or Cooper. All the other players available will be arguably pro-bowl talented; meaning if they play up to their potential they might be top 5-8 in the league at their position. Warmack and Cooper, on the other hand, are already viewed as top 5 or 6 in the league, talent wise, and some are comparing them to prospects that only come out every 10 or so years. I just don't see Buffalo passing easily on that type of talent, especially when there happens to be a hole at that spot on their roster! Still, given the importance of QB's and the lack of a franchise QB in Buffalo for almost 20 years, you just can't rule that out. What scares me, though - and I hadn't even considered this until just yesterday - is the idea of Nix, Whaley, and Marrone ALL HAVING DIFFERENT QB's rated at their top guy. I think it is really important that they are united on this, with perhaps the edge going to Marone, since he'll have to win with him. Still, though, lets say Nix gives in and lets Marone pick his guy, if the QB turns out unimpressive, Nix is going to get all the blame. I really hope these guys are all on the same page, or it might just be more of the same down at 1 Bills Drive...

The funny thing is that although I like Barkley the best, there is no argument as to which QB has the most physical talent - Bray. Of course, the question is - as it was with Mallett - will he be mature enough, and dedicated enough, to maximize his physcial skillset? The irony of this draft is that the best QB, in 5 years, might come out of the 3rd or 4th round, and be the 6th or 7th QB taken! He and Landry Jones have the best throwing arms in the draft, IMO. This is why, although I like Barkley, I'm going to be okay with whatever direction the Bills go in come draft day. I'd seriously be able to get excited with any of these guys as a prospect to compete for the starting role - especially if most of them are taken after the first round, because we could always take another guy next year or after if he doesn't pan out - Barkley, Geno Smith, Nassib, Wilson, Manuel, Landry Jones, Matt Scott, Mike Glennon, or Tyler Bray. I may be missing something, but each of these guys has a few qualities that would enable them, under the right situation, to be successful NFL QB's.

Yeah, I really enjoyed that interview. It got me psyched about TJ Graham! He is smart - and smart about the technical aspects of running. He will be the fastest guy on the field in a LOT of games. That really excites me - especially when I think about adding someone like Tavon Austin, or Hunter (from Tennessee), both of which run 4.4 or better. I just keep envisioning an offense with so much speed - added to a fast tempo! - and I could see (and HOPE) Buffalo coming out of nowhere with a lightning quick, high powered offense reminiscent of the Rams with Warner; no one saw them coming. Think about it - we have T.J. Graham, who runs a fast 4.4, Marcus Easley who, I believe, ran under 4.4 at the combine, Spiller - who we all know is like greased lightning, Dickerson, a sort of H-back / Tight End who runs a 4.4 - That's a lot of speed! Add in another good WR like Hunter or Austin and THERE WOULD BE NO WAY WE COULDN'T FIND MISMATCHES! Our problem before was not having a QB with the arm to maximize that speed.

When I first began studying up on these QB's, the one QB who I really didn't like was Nassib. Now, overall I loved certain things about him - the intangibles - his toughness, his intelligence, his ability to operate successfully a pro-style offense. What I didn't at all like was the amount of throws he made the recievers had to stop, or adjust their body, to catch. He just didn't seem like he anticipated the routes, or maybe he just didn't have a strong enough throwing ability to hit guys in stride down the field. That bothered the heck out of me, probably a bit of an overreaction because of Fitzpatrick. However - that throwing behind still bothers me - but if guys who are professionals, like Bill Polian, Cossell, even Joe B. on WGR, and Buffalo Rumblings editor, they all like Nassib as a prospect and say his arm is strong and more than capable of making all the throws with anticipation. So - I've changed my mind about him NOT BECAUSE I SEE IT, but because I trust my own inability to judge better than a group of experts. Nassib is certainly smart - the biggest factor for QB success, IMO, along with toughness (Trent Edwards big flaw), and of course arm strength - so, if his throws are good enough, I'll accept him as a prospect for us.

I'm on board with the people here who've voiced the problems with such a question - you can't compare a rookie QB who happens to be starting for, say, the 49ers and one who is starting for, say, Jacksonville. It's simply not fair. On the other hand, I think a good QB is going to be decent (imagine Peyton Manning with the Jaguars - he certainly wouldn't put up the same numbers as in Denver, but he'd still be obviously a good QB) pretty much anywhere, its more a matter of to what extent they are successful. And, of course, the one situation that certainly can turn even a very good QB into a bad one is a terrible offensive line. If he's getting nailed a lot, little injuries will begin to add up, and he will get jumpy. I was going to go on to list which QB's I think will pan out - but when I looked at the group, I see a chance for almost each of them to be successful, depending on the situation. So, I'll throw out which one I'd pick, which happens also to be the QB who I think is the best: Matt Barkley. I also really like Tyler Wilson and Landry Jones, and I think Nassib and Manuel will depend, along with Jones, on where they end up. Of the group I'd go Barkley as the best, though.

I could totally accept the Warmack pick - because I put no stock in the Guard is not a position you draft at 8, but then its okay to draft that same guy at 13? If he's a pro-bowler out of the gates, for 10 years, and a beast, its a SMART move. The only thing that makes it hard to accept is that we let Levitre walk. Now, if letting him walk was deliberate, to go get Warmack, who better fits Marrone's vision, or Cooper, even, then I won't debate it - but, it does kind of seem like treading water, yet again.

After hearing and reading so many of the experts dice up this QB class I'm beginning to lose conviction, if only because I'm merely an armchair GM/Scout. Still - I've been right about most of the QB's in the last 5 years with the exception of Clausen. I thought Kaepernick was as good as Newton coming out of college, and I thought Wilson matched up favorably with Luck and Griffin. This year I've liked Barkley the most since I've begun really doing the research. I thought I'd like Geno a lot more than I did - you heard so much about him, his stats were so good, but when I watched him there was something that made me hesitant. I'm up in the air with Geno - he might be the best of the bunch, or the 4th - I just can't get a good read on him. Manuel and Landry Jones were both QB's I think can be above average to Franchise QB's, given the right system and some time. Nassib I actually didn't like that much. Well, there was a lot I really liked about him - his strength, toughness, intelligence, leadership - but when I watched him play I saw so many of his deeper passes thrown behind his recievers; it just seemed like he had a problem with accuracy. I worry about accuracy issues - more now than ever, since Fitzpatrick. Yet, guys I really trust, like Joe B. at WGR, Cossell, Polian - these guys like Nassib a lot. It makes me think I'm wrong about him. If his accuracy can be cleaned up he reminds me a lot of Jim Kelly or Brett Favre. And lastly there is Wilson. I like him a lot. He seems to have everything (except big hands), or speed. So, my list is as follows, with tiers, according to which I think the QB's are close in talent and prospect: Barkley - Franchise QB, 1st round talent. Wilson, Nassib, Geno, Manuel - Likely above average QB's with potential, depending on system. Late first, second round talents. Landry Jones - Good QB. Potentially a frachise QB, but not as much in the upside/intangibles department. Still a solid 2nd round talent. Glennon, Matt Scott - With time, in the right system, they could be good QB's. Worth a 3rd round pick. Dysert - He's got enough of everything to spend a mid round pick on. If he doesn't end up challenging for a starter spot, he should prove to be a high upside backup, in the mold of a Frank Reich.

Yeah - it's funny that this question is posted, because it seems like we'd be in a similar situation at number 1 as we are at 8, except the one difference would be we could DEFINITELY trade down, whereas we only might be able to trade down at 8. All the players projected to go in the top before us are players at positions of strength for us, except Dion Jordan, who I also would take, although I'd consider trade downs, as well. I think Buffalo could trade down very easily this year, but they might have to accept less than the "slotted" value for doing so - maybe only getting a second and a late round pick to move back 10 or more spots. Still, if they don't want to go all in on a QB, I'd do it, because with our roster that's potentially 2 more starters, or contributors, on the cheap.

Good topic. Kelly, I find I enjoy your point of view on these boards. My response to this is: if Buffalo really thinks there is a franchise QB in this draft and they are able to take him at 8, they will. If they trade down, or take another position at 8, it means they are willing to take the best rated QB on their board when the next opportunity comes - or, perhaps even two choices later; whatever the case may be, if they pass on QB at 8 it means they didn't have any of them rated high enough to have considered them truly Franchise QB material. Because, if they pass on QB at 8 it means there are opportunities for any team between the 8 pick and their next pick to get "that guy", and, as I said, they wouldn't dream of passing on a Super Bowl caliber QB. Another thing to consider - and which I hadn't really considered until today - what if Nix and Marrone, or Nix, Whaley, and Marrone, all have different QB's they'd like to select? How does THAT dynamic pan out? It seems like a pretty lousy situation if they're all bickering over who to take, especially as it seems like Whaley has been pushed to the forefront of late. I'd like to think the Front Office is united in their vision - but, it just might be the case that Marrone wants one guy and Nix might pick another. That scenario scares me, and is just one more way this franchise could open itself up to more of the same.

Why is "everyone" mocking us a QB? Because, Barkley is going to be the next franchise QB of the Buffalo Bills, and the first QB to take this team to the playoffs in tooooooo long!

All these predictions about Buffalo finding a trade partner for the draft are often times shot down by people on this site - saying "no one's going to give up X amount of picks to get Y player when they could have..." BUT, the one thing I think Buffalo has on it's side in regards to a potential trade down (and, I only see that happening if they're NOT in love with a particular QB) is I think Buffalo would be willing to take LESS than the traditionally or conventionally accepted amount, due to the fact that the talent is similar and they value extra picks in the first 3 or 4 rounds enough to trade back without necessarily getting two 1st round picks and then some, but maybe only swap 1sts, a 2nd, a 4th, and a 7th - or something like that. I just think Buffalo might be willing to take less to get the extra picks. I wouldn't be surprised if they're not hoping to land Lutulelei. They need someone to replace Smith / play NT. Or the top WR?

Even if we were to get Dansby, I think we still need to bring in 2 more LBers this offseason, most likely via the draft. I really thought Pettine would have brought Bart Scott in as a cheap FA to teach the other guys, but I also thought Marrone would surely bring in Moore (Guard - Jets). Anyway, if we sign Dansby I would say that makes our lineup Lawson, Dansby, Bradham, and Williams - and that is if Mario is being used at OLB. Anderson would be Mario's backup, that Philly kid would be Bradham's backup, Sheppard would be Dansby's backup, but who would be backing up Lawson? I think we need another tall OLB who can run - unless they'd try to play Scott there, as a backup? Anyway, Dansby would be terrific, but I still think it'd be a draft priority within the first 4 or 5 rounds, unless the Bills think they can get kids with potential even into the 6th round and UDFA... The only other really pressing needs would be TE and WR - one of each and we'd be about as set at those positions as we would be at LB with the addition of Dansby - that is, enough guys to line up with on Sunday, but not deep.

Actually, Cooper would be a much better fit - as he's been in a fast paced offense and that is one of his many positives - his conditioning, speed, movement, etc. - all fit Buffalo's offense much better than Warmack, who is said to have worn down in games due to a lack of good conditioning. It's almost nitpicking, I know, as both are tremendous players - but the fit does matter to success, of which we'd be talking the difference between good and great. Still, I don't like the idea of letting a guy already on the roster go just to spend a pick on his replacement. That would be like saying we're more willing to keep 8 million a year than have a first round pick. I'd think the first round pick would be worth more than something like 6% of the total team salary cap.

I'd be just as happy with Wilson/Hamilton - especially if that were to mean we could spend our 1st pick on another position of need - as I would with Barkley/Woods, or, if we go Nassib early, I'd not be at all surprised to see Lemon drafted in the 5th or 6th round; I think Lemon is underrated in this draft, and could be our 4th or 5th WR.

More than anything, this implies they are looking to go mostly offense early. I like it. I've wondered why he and Moore (G - Jets)haven't been brought in as FA's. They'd both fit nicely as give us a little time until next year. I think it's definitely QB rd 1, WR rd 2, TE rd 3, CB rd 4 - or CB rd 3 and TE rd 4 - as Astro suggested.

I look at it like this - IF Buffalo thinks there is a franchise QB in this draft, and wants him, but thinks the 20's in RD 1 would be a better value, they're looking at picking someone at 8 and then trying to trade back up to get the QB. Who is there at a position of need at 8 that doesn't also have comparable players available in RD 2, or the bottom of RD 1? The only position at 8 that makes sense and is a positional need is Guard, with Warmack or Cooper. However, if they are thinking WR, ILB or OLB, or even CB at 8, and then trading back up into RD 1 to get "their guy", then I propose this: It's a heck of a lot safer of a bet that a LB or WR they like will still be available later in RD 1 than a certain QB. I'd rather them take the QB at 8 and then trade back to get their WR or LB they covet. I just think IF they really like a QB and think they can go all the way with him, and have him as a starter for 10 years, then you don't mess around - you take him at 8. In fact, if they take any other position, or trade down from 8, it suggests to me they don't have total confidence in any QB this year. If they did, considering how bad the position has been for them for so long, and their ineptitude at filling it, THERE IS NO WAY they'd pass on a chance to finally get "their guy".

I know - its ridiculous that I enjoy the draft, UDFA, and FA, sometimes more than the second half of the season itself - at least, its been that way the last 10 years or so. I think it goes to why I like football in general. I like the game so much because I believe there's more to a team winning, and being successful, than just size, strength, and 40 times. It's like a real life version of a battle chess game. The intelligence factor, the heart factor, the team factor - those things can come together and make magic happen on Sundays. I've always identified myself with the coach/GM, too. I've never been a tremendous athlete - rather average there - but, I'm drawn to the analysis, and game planning, roster building elements of it. There were times - I'd say during the Mularky/Jauron eras - when I tried to follow other teams whose play/styles/players I liked, and I just couldn't. It's Buffalo Bills or nothing. So, I'm left with thinking, if I were running the show what would I do - what do we need to compete? Whose a great sleeper pick? With the draft especially, theres always a very small but real possibility that a genius GM could get starters for all the holes and go into the season ready to compete. I feel that way now, too. Although I doubt we'll go into training camp with no holes, I still think we could realistically fill our holes if Nix and Co. play their cards right. Just to clarify, I think if we add a franchise QB, a good tall WR (stereotype #1), a TE, an ILB, and a CB, I think we can compete with anyone, or at the least make the playoffs as a wild card. Thats 5 starters. In this draft a good GM with a roster like Buffalo's should be able to add starters into the 4th round. It shouldn't be out of the question (and, it's not statistically) to add a starter or two via UDFA. I think we can also add a starter at G in FA if we fail to do so in the draft. And so - Thursday cannot come soon enough. Chicken wings, beer, pizza, and hope.

Accuracy, Intelligence, and Guts - those are the top factors in determining good QB's, IMO. Both Nassib and Barkley have those traits. I think either would succeed in Buffalo, and both would, within a few years, if not sooner, bring us back to the playoffs. I happen to think Barkley will be successful sooner, but I think Nassib has a real toughness and competitiveness that eventually wins out, too. You know, I also think Wilson has these qualities, and would be a good choice for us. Those are my favorite QB's in this draft. I know Manuel has a big upside, but I think his success will depend a lot more on the scheme he ends up in, whereas the above mentioned 3 have the skills to succeed in most systems.

I think the Revis trade might just change things a little bit for Buffalo. I could be wrong, but there's been a lot of speculation that the Jets like Nassib, and with 2 first round picks so high in the round, if Buffalo moves down, even to 20 - even to 15, the QB they really want could now be gone. My firm conviction on this matter is this - if Buffalo truly believes there's a QB who they can go all the way with and who can be a franchise guy for the next 10 years, they're not going to risk trading down and missing out on him. If they do trade down, I think it only shows that they don't really have A GUY - one guy - but are okay with any of a number of guys. I don't know how I like that - my gut instinct is to hope they're set on one guy - that they're certain one guy really has "it". To think that they'd settle for any of a number of guys kind of suggests that none of them are all that special.

On the subject of waiting until next year - that is okay IF Buffalo feels they can be very successful with Kolb now, and IF they believe there are no franchise caliber QB's this year. However, Buffalo may never be in as good of a position to draft THE QB they want than this year; they might have a shot at any QB in the entire draft at 8. Also, if they wait until next year, they'd have to finish the season with the worst record in the NFL (and, I doubt that is happening - there are more than a few teams in the NFL in worse shape than us, and we have a new coaching staff that'll give everything they have to win games) to guarantee they get a shot at the best QB in that draft. If the Bills really stink this year - as we've seen them do a lot in recent years - it's still likely there'll be 5 or more teams picking ahead of us next year. Waiting until next year might only guarantee the 3rd or 4th best QB in next year's draft. Also, what if Manziel doesn't come out after next year? That's no certainty. Another reason to take a QB this year. Joe B. on WGR pointed out, astutely, I'd say, that with this new staff in place if they pick a QB high this year and he doesn't pan out, they'll likely get another shot at drafting a high one again in 2 years. If they wait until next year, that will probably be the only chance they get - unless the QB ends up playing great. They take one this year they can afford to miss. Next year, they can't. That's a lot of reasons to take one this year - and there are even more reasons to take one with their 1st pick. Unless, of course, they like Kolb more than these guys, or unless they have like 5-7 QB's rated interchangeably and they're willing to take whoever is available in the 2nd or 3rd round. That, too, could make sense - taking someone like Wilson in the bottom of the 2nd or with their 3rd round pick - but, the problem is, if they really like any of the QB's they can't risk passing on them, because they could lose them.

Who knows why Byrd hasn't been signed. Perhaps he wants more than what Buffalo is willing to pay? Perhaps Pettine wants to see how he performs in a new defense? Perhaps the Bills feel that Aaron Williams and a safety pick in this year's draft can give them leverage to work out a better deal for themselves? These points all could be valid. Here's another valid point - the Bills could franchise Byrd for the next two years - giving them this year and two more - and his total contract over the life of his time with Buffalo would average out to be like 4 million a year. That's very reasonable for a very good safety. On another note - I find it really hard to believe that any team would trade early draft picks for a safety - even a good one - when this year is said to be such a deep year at safety in the draft, with like 4 or 5 potential pro-bowl quality players available? It just doesn't make a lot of sense.