KeisterHollow

I think the Scott BEST YPA over 2 years is wrong - shouldn't it be much less?

I don't think I'm taking the same from this as many of you. It certainly makes Geno Smith look great - but I wonder how much of that was a product of that system...still, his stats are very good. It aslo reinforces my like of Matt Barkley - still my favorite - but it also elevates Tyler Wilson and Landry Jones. I've got to say - my favorites, in this order, are Barkley, Smith, Manuel/Wilson (both are about equally appealing to me), Nassib, Bray, Jones, Glennon, Scott, and Dysert. I'd be happy with Barkley or Smith at the top of round 1, Manuel or Wilson at the bottom - via trade back, or top of round 2, Nassib or Bray between rounds 2 and 3, or Jones, Scott, Glennon or Dysert after round 3.

I agree - if Jordan or Ansah are there I think you have to take them. It's as you said - every really good defense has good LB'ers. If we're using Mario as a LB, and Lawson, that gives us one potentially good LB, one decent LB, Bradham has "potential", and I like him, but the difference between another pro-bowl caliber LB and Sheppard is BIG. Now, I know Jordan and Ansah are OLB prospects, it'd still give Buffalo a FORCE off both sides - remember Washington's defense tearing it up early with their two OLB'ers? We have more skill, I think, outside the LB'er position than Washington did. So, if Buffalo were to get impact LB'ers and another tall, capable cover corner, we could field a top 5 defense, I think. I wouldn't oppose that move, and leave the WR's, QB, G, and TE to the later rounds and UDFA - and, of course, finish that unit off next year. There's a few different philosophies and approaches the Bills could take to this draft, which is why it's so intruiging this year. If Kolb is protected well, he certainly could be servicable this year, and if we have 2 starting rookie WR's - which we might - and a rookie TE, then letting them acclimate and going for a top QB next year wouldn't be the worst scenario. Now, I don't see them waiting on QB, personally, but I could see the logic.

I agree - it's not that we have so few picks in relation to the draft as it's structured, but our number of holes, or areas that need an influx of talent, are equal to the number of picks we have. Typically people say if you come away from a draft with 2 or 3 good starters you've done well. Somehow we have to find starters in the later rounds. I don't think it's a big deal, either. I think Marrone and Co. are going to bring in a bunch of UDFA's, and I suspect we'll land a jewel at the LB, WR, or G position that way. I think of it this way - it's Nix's time to shine.

I'd jump at the Bucs deal - what's that? Like five picks down, and we get a high 2nd - that would be nice. We could still likely get Barkley, who I hope is our guy, and if he were to be gone we'd likely get the top WR or top ILB, and then we could finish of the trio with the QB and whichever position we didn't get with our 1st - WR / ILB.

I agree - the Nix bashing is just an overreaction. Yes, he did fail to draft a legitimate QB since his arrival, but how much of that was due to Gailey and or Ralph? I don't know the answer to that, but I would guess Nix trusted Gailey to either say, "I've got my guy", or, "I need some talent for competition". I actually have a feeling Gailey DIDN'T want any competition for Fitz, in case said competition made Gailey look like a stubborn fool - and once that contract was signed, forget it! Nix has this draft to really change the perception that he's failed. If he comes away from this draft with a promising young QB, and answers at WR, ILB, G, and TE - he might just look like the GM that turned this franchise around.

In the end, all the mock drafts amount to nothing but fantasy. In fact, teams have a real motivation to perpetuate false ratings, so that only adds to the circus. We'll see come draft day just where teams value players. Along the lines of your initial complaint - about the wide variance of ratings between the end of the season and the draft - I'd like to add another effect that I find misleading, which is the extreme rise and fall of certain players - mostly fall - based on one sub-par season. Look at Barkley, for instance. Had he come out last year he would have been a top 5 pick, probably, or at least top 10. That would have been based on his body of work to that point. Now, after he lost a valuable piece in his LT, and had a tough year with sanctions, he still put up very respectable numbers. Barkley is THE SAME QB that he was in 2011, yet now he's rated by many to be a 2nd round pick. It just baffles me - because I believe most NFL teams have him as the highest rated QB. Wilson of Arkansas also is getting a bad rep. I think the draft will prove much more kind to those two than is now being projected.

I think some people are a bit tough on Nix. He has his flaws, but he also has brought in some decent talent. I, for one - especially considering the depth of this draft (so many more juniors declaring than usual) - EXPECT us to be drafting starters through the first 4 rounds. I look at it this way: we have virtually no one at LG right now. We have a 3rd rounder at ILB (Sheppard) who has actually UNDER performed, we have a 3rd and 4th rounder at WR opposite Stevie Johnson, and with Chandler out we might as well have no one at TE. Throw in QB - and I think most of us would agree on this - a 1st or 2nd rounder out of this draft should probably be a starter this year. So, if they go QB, LB, WR, and TE with their first 4 picks there's no reason they shouldn't all be capable of starting, considering the competition. I'm counting on that, and I'm counting on the Bills striking it big with a few late round players or UDFA pick ups. There will be guys in the 6th and 7th round this year who could concievably come in and start for us - I'm thinking of certain WR's who might fall, or Tackles who might be converted to Guards, or maybe an ILB or Safety. I'll say it again - we'll have at least 4 starters on this team that came from college this year.

That's the kind of mentality I gravitate towards...because I, too, favor QB's with a lot of physical and mental potential. Kaepernick is the most recent example of this for me - I saw in him everything that people were raving about in Cam Newton. Of course, every QB is different, and not all of their "potential" falls in line with the new, athletic QB. Tyler Bray is a very curious subject. His physical talents are undeniable. I guess with these types - the "potential" guys - it boils down to what a team sees as the finished product, what can the kid develop into. So, firstly, the team has to see a type of QB that they'll teach the kid to become. Then they have to work him, coach him, and put him into the system that will work to his strengths. I don't know if Buffalo's new coaching staff places so high of a value on the athletic QB. If they do, I'd say Smith, Manuel, Scott, and Tuel are much more likely targets. If they prefer a more traditional pocket passer, I'd lean toward Barkley, Wilson, Nassib, Glennon, Bray, Jones, or Dysert.

I gotta say, I was really impressed when I heard Marrone's approach with these guys. As I recall, he told them that they were to commit to the team, that they were to go out and play for each other. You can see he's trying to build comraderie, accountability - and accountability works best when the players aren't afraid of getting chewed out, but rather when they're afraid of letting each other down - and he's trying to get every player to have the same set of goals. It's all about winning a Championship - which is also a nice, fresh new mindset, since the last few coaches acted as though the Bills were a handicapped team that would consider just making the playoffs a success, which translated to 7-9 being "close". This new staff is going to make us all very happy to be Bills fans again!

The more video I watch of Nassib, the more I like him. There are still doubts about his ball placement (lack of anticipated placement / throwing behind recievers at times), the more I watched, the more I saw good passes, too, and plenty of NFL caliber passes. Of course, Lemon also looked terrific (kind of reminds me of Stevie Johnson coming out of college - overlooked by some, but the tape impresses). As it goes today, I'd be happy if Buffalo walks away from this draft with Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, or Wilson by the end of rd 2 - each of which I'd expect to be considered as the QB of the near future for Buffalo; and each would probably be given this and next year to prove it. I'd also be okay if they walked away from this draft, using something like a 4th or 5th round pick, with Bray, Dysert, Scott, or Jones as QB's with potential, and the thinking would be if whichever didn't pan out then they could just go after their QB next year.

That list was spot on, IMO. I see Barkley and Smith as first round picks, and Manuel, Nassib, and Wilson as all being gone by the end of round 2. As much as people say this isn't a great draft for QB's (that's being nice) I say it is a pretty good draft for QB's, if you're a team like Buffalo that needs a QB and is selecting where they are. If there were a Luck/Griffin combo in this draft, and then a huge drop off, people might say it was a good draft for QB's, but Buffalo would still be left with leftovers - because there's no way Jacksonville, Oakland, Philly, and Arizona would allow a sure-fire QB to fall past them. As it is now, Buffalo might get to pick from any QB in the draft at 8, and, if they pass, they'll probably still be able to get a QB in the 2nd who could potentially be a Franchise guy. That's a good spot for Buffalo to be in, IMO.

We could say they could use an upgrade at SS and CB, too. However, we could also say the Bills could get by this year with an upgrade at Sheppard's ILB spot, at Levitre's vacant spot, at TE, at WR (Easley gets his final shot, I think, and could still be a player). If we didn't get a QB, Kolb and Jackson could hold it down - sure, we'd probably be looking at a 4-6 win season again. So, adding a rookie QB is a must, IMO. Still, as a minimum, we add QB, LG, TE, WR, and ILB. That's 5 spots. If they're all starting caliber, it would give us enough to be competitive with; you'd have Gilmore, McKelvin, Rogers, and Brooks at CB; Byrd, Searcy, and Williams at safety; Lawson, Bradham, Rookie, and Mario/Anderson at LB; Dareus, Williams, Carrington, and Branch at D-line. That might not be perfect, but it'd be enough to probably field a top 15 defense with Pettine as DC, barring injuries. On offense you'd have Kolb/Rookie at QB, Spiller/Jackson at RB, Glenn, Rookie, Woods, Ubrik, and Hairston on the line, Rookie TE, Stevie, Graham, Rookie, and Easley as wideouts. Like I said - we'd like to see an upgrade at CB, another LB, another WR (besides the mandatory LB and WR already projected), and another G - although I'd be surprised if we didn't end up bringing in Moore from the Jets to help out at Guard.

I don't mean to sound arrogant, or over-confident, or overly intelligent here, but I've been following the Bills for more than 20 years, and have been following the draft rather closely for about 10 years. My memory isn't the greatest, but I recall the last five drafts, further back I recall first round selections pretty well, and I am left wondering, who are the Bills paying to make decisions on these draft picks! I - and just about everyone - saw Orakpo as the pick, and then it ended up being Maybin. Sure, I have overly valued some players coming out of college, but I saw Kaepernick and Wilson as good QB's worth taking a shot on. I actually compared Kaepernick to Newton (similar in size, Kaepernick was faster, fitter, and had more experience). I just think there have been people in Buffalo getting paid a lot and have turned out information that could have been bested by a 10 year old picking up the last verson of a draft guide and just picking BPA. I've said it before - Nix really has to nail this draft or he's going to have wasted his time here. It's that simple; if he pulls out a QB and manages to fill most of our big holes this year, we're probably looking to end the season on the cusp of a playoff birth, and he'll be considered a wise, patient GM who methodically turned a bad team around. If he goes bonehead and leaves us all scratching our heads, he'll be remembered as the scout who was in way over his head.

I agree. The Bills are not just playing for this year - they're building a team to compete for years. Everyone is quick to say how stacked Buffalo is at RB. Sure, we have Spiller (who I love, but who has never carried the load for a full season), Fred (who is coming off an injury, and who has been more prone to injuries these past 2 seasons) whose last year could come at any time, and Choice - who wasn't too inspiring during his shots last year. Now, as I was saying, as soon as next year we might be looking for a replacement for Freddy. And, as far as our being stacked at the RB spot - imagine if we passed on Lattimore in, say, the 4th round, and then Spiller gets badly hurt in the 3rd or 4th game of this year, and Fred struggles. My point, I guess, is that if you get a shot at drafting a top talent, and you're Buffalo - and it's a later round draft choice, you don't pass it up because you don't necessarily NEED the guy today, ignoring the fact that you might need that guy next year, when, BTW, if healthy, he'd be a 1st or 2nd rounder.

There IS a negative effect to signing Tebow. First, there's the media. Even if everyone in-house decided Tebow was NOT competing for the QB spot, that he'd have only a small contributing part in things, the media would continue to pursue it. That is a distraction, especially for a team like Buffalo who looks to be bringing in a rookie QB. Why have that potential hanging over a young kid's shoulders? Tebow, also, wants to be a QB. He'll always be saying, "give me a shot, I can get it done". There's too much of a chance for that to become a locker room issue. Marrone is trying to build a tight team here. I was really pleased to hear he insisted that the players were there for each other, that they were playing to win for each other - that is a very smart way to approach things.

"I understand why our country GM decided to go with Fitz; at the time he had few options. But not getting a decent prospect in the pipeline during his three year tenure made absolutely no sense. He let sterling prospects pass because he focused on the flaws instead of the assets." I find that particular statement quite worrisome. Any GM or talent evaluator can see the obvious talents. It takes a real professional's professional to be able to see a guys POTENTIAL. If everyone only saw the obvious guys, then there'd be no steals, no sleepers, no opportunities for the smaller teams like Buffalo to get an edge. Polian had that ability. Seattle and San Fran have that ability. Even I saw Kaepernick and Wilson as elite talents. Now, I'm not claiming to know the behind-the-scenes truth to what happened these past 3 years. Maybe Nix was overly influence by Ralph, or maybe he put the decision in Gailey's hands (it seemed like Gailey went out of his way to keep Fitz from having to compete with anyone - I think he was afraid he'd be forced to switch, and he'd be proven to have been wrong). Either way, the time is NOW for Nix. He can redeem himself with a stellar draft. The players are there - the Bills can walk away from this draft with all their holes filled, as long as Nix proves he's elite at evaluating talent. I'm hoping he goes out having put the Bills in the playoffs! Mark my words - Barkley is their number 1 QB.

Yeah - Barkley is my 1st choice at QB, too. Personally, I feel the rest of the NFL has Barkley ahead of Smith, with the exception of teams that want to implement a read option type element. I agree with all of it; he's smart, he's mature, he's playing for the right reasons, his ''weakness'' isn't even really a weakness - as far as I'm concerned, I've watched maybe 10 games of his, and he can hit guys accurately at 40 yards. This guy is very personable, too - he'll make friends and win over a locker room. I see Barkley as an elite QB, in the mold of a Brady, or even like Brees. I just don't think Buffalo could pass on him, even at 8. I'm baffled by the mock drafts I've seen lately that have Barkley going in the 2nd and even 3rd rounds. That is nuts. He isn't going to make it out of the 1st round, and I've been hoping that there ARE NFL teams that actually do have Barkley rated as a 2nd rounder, and behind Smith, because I'm hoping he'll be there for us!

Trading down in the first would make a lot of sense for Buffalo - but to predict that happening is wishful thinking, as Nix has shown an almost inability to get fancy with trades. I think Buffalo goes QB, OLB, WR, or G/T with the first pick. There'll be ten or more guys, probably, available at 8 who would seriously help Buffalo out. I'm really curious to see this draft unfold. We've got two units - defense and offense - and two new coaches, and holes on both sides. Defense has room to upgrade at ILB, SS, and maybe CB/OLB. I'd say ILB is the only real need; as we could get by with the rest of the defense, barring injuries. However, Ogletree is the top ILB, and I don't know if he's all that much better than two or three linebackers that'll still be there in the 2nd. Offense has need at QB, G, TE, and WR (2). We are going to need a TE because Chandler is probably not going to be ready for the beginning of the season. However, I really doubt they go TE until rounds 3 or 4. There'll be a few awesome G prospects at 8, but does that outweigh WR - of which, at 8, we'd probably have our pick of all the WR's coming out. And, of course, there's QB. If they are sold on a particular QB's ability to be a franchise guy, it'd be hard for Buffalo to risk waiting - and, I don't think they would, unless they're comfortable waiting until next year to seriously add a Franchise caliber QB. So, my guess for our first pick is QB or WR. I think by the end of round 4 we have a QB, WR, TE, and LB.

Weren't Shane Conlan's knees a question coming out of college, too? I guess it'll depend who's around those last few rounds as to whether or not he's worth the risk.

I'm on the same page with those who say NO to Mingo. I'd love Jordan, and I'd love Ansah - but those are the only two LB'ers I'd want to see picked at 8. Ogletree, I think, would be better had in the lower teens, bottom part of RD 1.

Thanks for the feedback! Still, I don't see why an OLB, who has timed speed faster than that of most ILB'ers, and who has to tackle RB's on the outside, stay with TE's, couldn't drop into coverage in the middle, and plug holes between tackles. After all, they're generally bigger than the MLB/ILB'ers, aren't they? It's something I'd try, at least with the OLB'ers weighing in at 250 lb range. Maybe a guy like Ansah or Jordan, who both are very tall and rangy in body type, would have a hard time getting the leverage between the tackles, but a shorter OLB prospect, somewhere in the 6' 1'' - 6' 2'' range, should be okay with that. Just my take, but I'd give some later round OLB'ers with speed a shot at the middle.

I also have a hard time seeing the roster moves these past few months as "spinning the wheels". There's been so much turn over in the Front Office, so much youth and energy added; Marrone certainly isn't going to take a step backward, or stand still - he's going to maybe get rid of some guys who he believes would be wasted spots on his unit, because he's got other talents in mind. Levitre was purely money, and they don't always deny these guys a contract (although, one of Nix's faults is certainly that he doesn't renegotiate contracts early enough). Marrone would have ensured they kept Levitre if he thought he couldn't replace him AND get better as a unit. I still wouldn't be surprised to see that Jet Guard come in for a year or two... And, Pettine sure as heck didn't come here to make himself look bad. This is Pettine's first shot beyond the shadow of Rex Ryan - he is going to want to come out swinging. So, I don't see these moves as "status quo" by any means. I see them as a first step, a cleaning house, and a preparation for a lot of NEW TALENT. I'm a fan, so this should be taken accordingly, but I am envisioning this team coming out like the Rams did with Kurt Warner - no one saw them coming.

That is my thought, too. Although last night a different thought occurred to me regarding QB's. I've been saying, and thinking, for months now, that the QB class this year is perfect for Buffalo because they stand a good chance of being able to get whichever QB they want at 8, and even if they wait there are guys projected to be available in rounds 2 and 3 who I like, too, so they could get rarer, more gifted talents in the first round or two, and then get a QB. However, it occurred to me last night that passing on a QB at 8 might not be such a wise decision. There are, I believe, a handful of QB's in this draft who will end up being starters in the NFL (Smith, Barkley, Manuel, Wilson, Nassib, and Bray) and others who have a shot as well (Glennon, Jones, Scott, Dysert), and so I've been making these groupings of guys in my head, thinking it would be okay if Buffalo did this, or that: Barkley in round 1, Hunter round 2, or Jordan round 1, Nassib round 2, etc. After really thinking about it, though, I have to wonder, if Buffalo has a QB in mind who they absolutely believe is capable of being a Franchise QB, who they believe can take over and be their answer at that position, how can they pass on him at 8, risk him not being there in the 2nd round? Even if there are a few QB's they think they could win with, isn't there a HUGE difference between the right guy and everyone else? It just seems like the offense would look drastically different with Manuel as QB vs Barkley, or Glennon and Manuel, or even Barkley and Nassib. My point is this: IF Buffalo has a QB rated high enough that he could be a 10 year, franchise player, I just don't think they can pass on him, even if there's higher rated players at different positions available.

When I look at the prospects coming out in the draft this year, and especially when I hear the network analysts talking about certain guys, a question comes to me. There are some tackles coming out that played pretty good in college, but when they're evaluated they are said to be likely to go to Guard in the NFL. Usually it's because they don't possess enough speed, or they don't have long enough arms. Also, you hear about college DE's who are projected to be OLB'ers in the NFL because they're too small. That makes sense enough to me. My question focuses on two positions, but any responses are welcome. Are the guys playing Tackle in college playing that position because its the best position for their frame, or because they're the best, most talented guy on the roster that fits that body type? I'm wondering if a guy - Kyle Long from Oregon fits this question good - who played Tackle successfully would automatically be a better Guard? Does being a good Tackle qualify you, or mean you're capable of being an even better Guard? I ask because if this is the case, perhaps Buffalo can fix their Guard positon by going after a college tackle who was good in college, but might not be prototypical in size, and therefor could slip to the mid-rounds? An even more pertinent position for this question, in regards to this draft and the Bills, is the difference between OLB and ILB. There are so many exciting prospects in this draft at the OLB position, but there aren't near as many at the ILB position. When I look at these prospects measurables, something keeps popping out at me. Many of the mid-round prospects - Trevardo Williams, an OLB from Connecticut, measuring at 6' 1'' tall, 240lbs, and runs a 4.57 forty, is ranked 12th on Walterfootball for OLB'ers - have better measurables than the top ILB'er prospects! Compare Trevardo with Alec Ogletree, who is 6' 3'', 236 lbs, and runs a 4.7 forty. Wouldn't these OLB'ers who weigh in about the same, but who are generally faster, be even better suited for ILB? It just seems like a no-brainer to take the later round guys who might be better suited, and likely drafted higher, at another position.