KeisterHollow

As much as everybody says this is a bad year for QB's, Buffalo fans should be rejoicing that this year's class is as it is. We're the most QB hungry, depraved team in the NFL. I would go so far as to say we might have been in the running for a playoff spot last year had we had a better QB (I know, our defense was more of a problem, but you never know how the right QB could raise a team). Anyway, I've been so frustrated with Buffalo for never losing enough games to get the guy they need to turn things around, and having to sit through 6-10 seasons - pointless! However, we Bills fans might finally have found our LUCKY year! First, we get the new coaching staff - I really like their potential. As for the QB - in almost every draft before and again, the best QB's would be gone by pick 8. How many of us, this time last year, if we knew we'd be picking 8, would guess we'd be in line to have our choice of MAYBE every QB in the draft? And, if not every one - how many of us would have guessed we could be picking from Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, Tyler Wilson, or maybe Geno Smith? Barkley was being compared favorably to Luck. I, for one, don't think a bad year, behind a bad line, that included an injury to the throwing shoulder, would all of a sudden make Barkley - one of last year's favorites for this year's #1 overall pick - that much less of a prospect. I don't think Buffalo could have scripted this scenario better for themselves. By December the nation very well might be saying how Buffalo came away with the steal of this year's draft!

I hadn't thought much about Landry Jones - but, at this time last year he was projected as a future 1st round pick, or up there with the better college QB's. So, too, obviously, was Barkley. A point was made that scouting isn't done on just one year, but on a body of work. With that in mind I think it securely puts Jones and Barkley on that list. I don't care for Smith so I'm thinking he's not too high on their list - and, if that is so then it is perfect for us, since he's the likely QB to go before our 8th pick! Nassib is no doubt on the list. I have to believe they like Manuel, and I know they like Wilson. So, I believe they have their QB's rated Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones, Wilson - a slight change since my last post. I really hadn't given Jones a lot of thought, but if we're guessing, I suppose his history is undeniable. A really interesting aspect of the draft - one of many - is this: what if Buffalo gets their choice of QB at 8? If every QB is available, it would put them in a very tough spot. How could they possibly pass on a QB - especially now that Nix has admitted there are Franchise guys in this draft? Anyway, I have to believe the draft room is split on the QB's. I almost think they'd rather not have to choose between Barkley and Nassib. But, if I were to guess what round, rank they have these guys rated, I'll go top or bottom of each round: Barkley - top 1st Nassib, Manuel - bottom 1st Geno, Wilson - top 2nd Jones - bottom 2nd Bray - top 3rd Scott, Glennon - bottom 3rd Dysert - top 4th If they have other guys rated a lot higher than Barkley or whoever their top QB is, then according to my thinking they probably feel confident in getting a decent guy even into round 3. Still - all things considered, how could Buffalo risk passing on their choice of QB, given their history?

That's a very keen observation. I also thought they might be higher on Bray (although I forget to even list him on my last post), if only because IF they wait, he seems like the QB who might be available even in the 3rd who could conceivably has realistic NFL starter ability. If they miss on Nassib, Barkley, and Manuel (I, too, BTW, have a feeling they're not as sold on Geno as everyone else seems to be), I'd guess they target Bray in the 3rd - and if they don't get their QB after their 2nd pick, I'd almost guarantee they trade back up to get Wilson or Bray instead of hoping he'd be there in the 3rd.

If Buddy is being honest when he says there are 2 or 3 guys in this draft that he'll guarantee will be very good players, then isn't he backing himself into a corner when it comes to drafting a QB at 8? We can be reasonably sure there'll only be one QB taken before the Bills pick - if even that - and considering the Bills have had squat at the position for so long everyone knows QB is the Bills biggest need. All that being so, how could Buddy pass on a QB at 8 when he's gone on record saying there are 2 or 3 Franchise caliber guys? Of course, if he's saying that to create the impression they'll take a QB EVEN IF a QB or two have already by taken, so that no one will be sure who'll they'll take, then that goes outside of Nix's character, but it is definitely something most GM's would say or do. In a lot of ways that statement makes the case for them going QB at 8. It creates the foundation for them going Nassib, Barkley, or Manuel even if Smith and another guy are gone already - and then Nix can say he always thought there were more than one good QB in the class, so as not to seem like he was "reaching" out of panic/need. As for who they are - I have to believe it's more like 4 - Barkley, Smith, Nassib, and Manuel. Then there's Wilson - who I think they'd have as a second rounder, and Scott, Glennon, Dysert, and Jones who're somewhere in the 3-4 range. I just can't fathom Nix trying to wait until the second to get one of 2 or 3 QB's - there's no way they'd be there, at least not a betting chance. Unless they're sure they can either trade down or back up into the first, I don't see them passing on QB at 8, now.

Although I do think there are trends worth being aware of (i.e. - the importance of having an analytics dept.), I have to say, after considering the subject for some time: I think the most important piece of any franchise is the coaching. You simply must have good coaches - they make everyone around them better. Secondly, you have to have a good GM/Front office. That GM will supply the coaches with the right talent, which isn't always necessarily the concensus "best" talent, but the best FITTING talents, and the combination of the two - coaching and front office - over time, will lead to success/stability. I just think that if a specific D-Coordinator, if he were a genius, and if he depended heavily on CB's, were on a given team, it might justify drafting CB's early. Certainly they cost at about the top of the FA chain. Our problem in the past was that we never had a good combination of coaching, front office, QB play. Sometimes we had a good Defensive minded coach, but our offense lacked a good coordinator, or a good QB. My point here is this: if the coaching is top rate, and the GM is good at getting what the coordinators need, then it will vary radically from team to team which players they covet most. The important thing is that the coaching is top notch. If it is, they'll assemble the right players to play their schemes, and success follows. Our failures over the last 2 decades have not been because we drafted CB's high. It has been because we've had terrible coaching, front office personnel, and QB play. I have to say, QB is the absolute most important position, regardless of coach/GM. Because we haven't had a good QB since Kelly - and Bledsoe, temporarily, and in a way Flutie - the fact that we drafted CB's seems a lot worse than it would've probably seemed had we had a good QB. But, then again, had we had a good QB we probably wouldn't have been in a position to draft those guys! Thats really our big fault - not getting the QB. And, of course, not going all in and all out on getting the best coaches. COACHING is the MOST IMPORTANT part of any franchise - and, until now, I just think we've failed miserably there. I have hope, however, that this group will turn it around for us!

Hey - on profootballtalk there's an article about Gruden saying he thinks Nassib is the best QB of the bunch this year. That says a lot, to me. Gruden is considered a very good judge of QB talent - at the NFL level. If he says he likes Nassib, that he thinks Nassib can be very successful in this league, I'm going to take his word for it, after all, how could I know better than him?

Yeah, unfortunately it doesn't account for what those good teams would have done had they the opportunity to draft a CB in the top ten, since they weren't there. There's no totally objective way to break down the numbers, since the better teams are always picking AFTER the top prospects are off the board. Still, there could be some trends that would be uncovered if, perhaps, one were to break down the good, bad, and SB teams as was done, and account for the percentages given to each position in the first round, or first two rounds. I probably would reflect that the good teams draft certain positions more frequently in the higher rounds than the bad teams. Even there, though, QB would probably be a skewed stat, since the best QB's are almost always gone in the first few picks - something only bad teams generally have. Still, thanks for the time spent!

Funny - right off, the players listed were the players that ARE ACTUALLY very probable for Buffalo at 8! Milliner, Vacarro, Warmack/Cooper, Geno Smith, Mingo... who's left? What? This leaves only the guys who are just about sure to be drafted ahead of Buffalo, and guys who most think are better off drafted in the teens or twenties. I guess no matter who Buffalo picks there's going to be a lot of complaining going on here! As for me - I know I have a few favorites I'd love to see Buffalo pick - Barkley, Jordan, Ansah - are at the top of that list, but if the Bills collective braintrust believes Geno, Milliner, Warmack/Cooper, or anyone else (except Mingo - he's too much like Maybin for my taste, and he never really was too successful at getting actual sacks!), heck, even Jarvis Jones could be palatable, as long as they believe he'll play faster than his 40, are good enough, then I trust their professional opinion. I'm more concerned with the collection of players as a whole than I am with the top pick. For me, it hasn't been Buddy's first picks that have killed me, it's been his 5th-7th round picks, which seem like they've been picked with a dart, passing on guys who are obviously much higher rated at positions of need for guys I've never heard of and who, most of the time, don't make it to the final roster anyway!

Something I haven't considered until now in regards to taking Warmack - or even Cooper - at 8. I'll bet Dareus tells Marrone and Co., if asked, that Warmack HELPED him play great against other competition, because by the time he got around to Saturday, he was used to much better competition at Guard. Well, what if that logic is true? Does having a nasty Guard actually help the DT's prepare better for other competition? If it does, then maybe it not only makes our offense better, but our defense a little bit, too?

I think people are underselling Pears and Hairston; especially Hairston. I thought he actually did okay at LT when he had to play. I think he'll be rather good at RT when he gets his shot this summer. With Hairston starting at RT, and Pears backing him up, and Cordy playing LT, with Sanders backing him up, we ARE set at the Tackle spot. What we need is a true G, and a capable backup to both the C and G spots. I don't know how it works when switching from tackle to guard - if either Pears or Sanders CAN do it WELL, then I'm all for that. However, if there are better options in the draft - and I know there is still Moore out there from the Jets, then it'd be better probably to go that route. My guess is the Bills are waiting until after the draft, to see whether they get a Guard they might like, and if they don't then they'll pursue Moore.

As much as we've heard this optimistic talk every time a new coach comes in, there are differences. Namely, most of us TRIED to find things to be positive about with the Gailey hire. He wasn't who we wanted. He also kept a terrible QB. And, his Defensive Coordinators were perhaps the worst in Bills history - or close to it. That is not a tough act to follow. Gailey isn't alone there - how many of the string of coaches who've been here since Levy and Wade have had legitimate experience or had decent coordinators? Pettine is a serious talent at DC. He'll immediately make the defense better. And, depending on how much more talent he gets via the draft, UDFA, and FA, he could have us anywhere from top 10 to top 15 in total defense. Sure - Marrone doesn't come with NFL HC experience, but he was a hightly coveted candidate. This is the first time since Wade Phillips we've had a coach like this. Now, as far as player talent goes, I agree with the people who say the NFL is close, team to team, in talent, with the exception of a few powerhouse teams like San Fran and Seattle. Still, with the right decisions in the draft, there's no reason to think Buffalo couldn't be pressing for a playoff spot in December. We simply need to strike gold with the QB, and add a few more offensive and defensive talents - realistically, if we get a good starting ILB, WR, TE, and a legit QB we'd have enough talent to compete with just about anyone. Buddy has a real shot at doing that this year, because the draft is unusually deep. Lastly, we have Whaley waiting in the wings, and Brandon overseeing things, as opposed to Ralph. It is a new time for Buffalo, and for the first time in over ten years we have reasons to be optimistic. Our team was awful last year - terribly coached and we had the worst QB I've seen in a long time. It wouldn't take much to improve on that - and a good coach could probably add 3 or 4 wins to last year's season just by the schemes and a different QB. It really wouldn't take much to bump us up to a 10-6 season.

Yeah - it's the uncertainty of Geno that makes it hard for me to root for the Bills picking him. I'm certan Barkley will be good, especially in the Bills system. Likewise, Nassib no doubt would be fine, as he's already had success in this system. I like Wilson's mechanics, his production (despite losing all his recievers AND a bad O-Line), and Manuel just reminds me a lot of Cam Newton, has intelligence, and his skill set is just undeniable. This is why I leave it to the pros - if the Bills like Geno and draft him I'll trust that he'll work fine in their system; after all, Marrone should know Smith very well after having played against him, scouted him, for years.

You can critique Nix on his drafts - who he's drafted, how many have stuck and started, how many have left You can critique him on UDFA - same thing, how many were brought in, how many are still here and starting On FA - who he's lost, who he's brought in, and who are starting. You can also critique him on coaching, if you're being thorough. It looks like, without getting into details, Nix has done an awful job thus far. Still, I have the impression that with this draft he has the ability to turn things around and finally field a good team. I've said this before, Nix's whole legacy as a GM rides on this off-season.

agreed - if we want QB we'll have to take him at 8, or trade back up/down into the first round. There's just too many teams that could upgrade QB ahead of us in round 2, and even some at the bottom of round 1. I'd be fine with this draft. Wilson is growing on me a lot the more I read, and I was pretty high on him to begin with. If we're trying to get a starter at QB this year, I'd be okay with Geno, Barkley, Manuel, Nassib, or Wilson. I'm pretty comfortable that we get one of these guys. On another note - I've been saying since Xmas that Barkley is my top choice in this draft at QB. That still holds true, but I've been very down on Geno Smith. I don't know why, other than there's something about him that seems system-ish. Anyway, after Astro posted that DesignQB thread with the charts, I started looking more closely at Geno Smith, and I've got to say, his stats are impressive. So - if ASTROBOT happens to read this, or anyone else who knows a bit on Smith, is Smith's excellent production a product of a system? I tried to research this but I couldn't really come up with any articles addressing this particularly. I'd appreciate the feedback, because if the system is not totally responsible for his stats, you've got to really credit him with some amazing play - and the fact that his team lost games in which he was putting up 35+ points a game does not necessarily reflect poorly on him.

If this is so, then I'd think this would be a good way to equalize, or neutralize, the benefits for players going to certain teams in certain states. I mean, it sort of levels the playing field, if this is true - although not completely, it helps. I'd be all for this system if I were the NFL.

I'd certainly take a 4th round flyer on him - but I wouldn't expect him to stay clean. All that money and all that free time in the off-season - unless he truly is clean and clean for the right reasons, as soon as he gets the NFL job and proves he can compete, he'll be like every other pot smoker in the NFL - they take it as far as they can. I don't personally have a problem with people smoking, and I can't blame him for failing "10" tests - if after the first two or three he didn't get suspended, then why would he suspect he ever would? As far as I'm concerned, how many 4th-7th round players pan out? The odds have to be worse than the odds of him playing like a 2nd rounder, in which case it'd be a wise move for Buffalo, even if he only lasted 2 or 3 years.

I have to agree with those who say this is a crazy idea. For one - as mentioned - a team would have to give up a lot, and then pay a lot on top of that; especially at a time when there are a handful of promising safeties in the draft that can be had for pennies in comparison. Secondly, the Bills are getting good value with Byrd right now, even at 6 or 7 million for this year. In fact, if Byrd stays at the pro-bowl level, or gets better, we can franchise him again, and pay not a whole lot more than what we are this year. If anyone thinks thats a bad deal for Buffalo, you should consider that if you averaged this year and another year at the franchise level, and then added in what we paid him in his first 4 years, you end up with like an average of 3 or 4 million a year over the life of the contract. Any NFL team would take that. So, it just seems ridiculous to speculate on such a trade unless there were a team with a real desire for him, particularly, and they were willing to make a deal - like the Bucs are with Revis.

This would be great.

Cooper is supposed to be a monster of a man with the feet of a fullback - from what I've seen he's got the ability to get to the second level and really create BIG blocks. He'd be ideal for the type of offense Hackett and Marrone have in mind. I don't think anyone can really argue the value of a Guard at 8 if he ends up being a 4 or 5 time pro-bowler before his first contract is up. It makes as much sense as a Safety. The talent in this draft and the new coaching staff's penchant for silence has really left me almost absolutely unsure what will happen come draft day. On another note - there is still the Guard from the Jets who was solid right up till his contract expired - Moore? - who has played for Marrone, I believe. That's a possibility, still, too - and I would guess a rather strong one.

I started a post less than a week ago asking why we didn't take chances on good, but not great, college Tackles and OLB'er, and move the tackles to Guard, and the OLB'ers/DE's to ILB for us. It seems like a good way to use later round picks on guys who could be used to a better advantage in the NFL. I got the idea because of hearing so many "experts" talking about the tackle prospects after the top 5 in this draft maybe being better suited for guard. And, I was looking at the measurables - 40 times, weights - of OLB'er prospects and ILB prospects, and I noticed the OLB'ers rated like 10 and worse had comparable measurables to some of the top ILB'er prospects.

I'm on board, also - I think if the Bills believe any of these QB's can be their franchise guy for 10 years then they had better not get cute and try to "steal" him in the second, because there are way too many picks between our first and second pick, and there are not only the teams that actually need QB's, but other teams who will look at what San Fran and Washington did recently and take a flyer on a guy who might turn into something special. I'd be very surprised if by pick 41 there aren't already 3 or 4 QB's taken. In fact, I'd guess Smith, Barkley, Nassib, and Manuel would be gone by 41. If they're planning on waiting, they better be ready to make a trade back up into round 1. I'd be fine with them not taking a QB at 8 and going something else - but if they're passing on a QB they better make sure it's an impact player - because there are a lot of talented guys at the top of round 1. The last thing we need is to come away with another Whitner pick, with a guy like Lututelei (similar to Ngata), or Ansah (similar to Pierre Paul) or any of a bunch of good looking prospects. The Bills just don't have the luxury of missing on picks this year, if they have any hope of making a playoff run. So, if they put off QB again, it should only mean that they're looking to go all in - to do whatever it takes next year - to get a legitimate QB, regardless of where they fall in the standings. I really don't see them waiting, though - it just makes too much sense to take a risk this year (especially with Nassib out there) and if it doesn't work, they can try again in a year or two.

I'm beginning to think Buffalo's pre-draft visits might have been to ascertain how good some of the lower round prospects match up, physically, in measurables, and in football IQ, with the higher rated prospects. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills target OLB/DE, G, and CB's in the 1st, or first few rounds, while knowing they can get a QB prospect, WR, and Safety prospect they like later in the draft. Then again, it might just go the opposite way. Ha! We'll have to wait and see!

I'd also be really surprised to see Buffalo pass on Ansah. Then again, it'd be tough for them to pass on Milliner, and it'd be tough for them to pass on Barkley - Dion Jordan, too. I could see them passing up a G, S, or LT (as long as it's not Fischer or Joekel), if only because the value at S and G might not be as good as they'd like, and with LT, they very well might believe they have their starter there already. It does surprise me how many people dismiss Ansah - he'd be able to man the DE and OLB spots, and he can cover, AND his potential is tremendous; there's a good chance he gets better for the next few years - and I just don't think you can say that about any but a few in this entire draft. Most of these guys are pretty much as good as they're going to get.

There's no doubt - I'm sure most of us read an article a few weeks ago about the importance of safeties in Pettine's defense, supposedly MUCH more important than corners - Buffalo will draft a safety this year. I find their visits interesting...they brought in a bunch of safeties, and they range, in predicted draft spots, all over from 1st round to UDFA. My guess with this, as with WR, is they are COMPARING the best with these lesser known prospects - that, to me, suggests they'd like to be able to get a comparable prospect later in the draft without having to use such a high pick. I think that is really what Buffalo is doing - they're building scenarios where if X player is gone, they go to plan B. IF Y player is gone, they go to plan C. Plan A might be a QB, it might be an OLB/DE, a CB, a LT - we just don't know. Certainly, though, there are talented safeties in this draft who would give Buffalo a formidable tandem EVEN if they pass on Vaccaro. Add to that, we don't know if they plan on using A. Williams as a Safety. He'd change their "need" there, I would think. All in all, this post and the previous articles should prepare Buffalo fans for a draft that includes an early pick at Safety. IMO, though, there are at least 3 or 4 other positions that could just as easily go early - and with that many possibilities, it's like being ready to expect anything.

Who knows what Buffalo is thinking - they might feel a lot more comfortable with certain positions than we think (LB, QB, G) and a lot less comfortable with others that we don't consider as such a pressing need (CB, S, TE). One thing is for sure - they've only got a few premium picks. If I were to guess what positions they choose to go in those top 3 picks, I'd agree with either QB, WR, LB, or QB, LB, TE - not in that order, necessarily. I really think, though, that who they choose early is going to be more a matter of how deep they feel certain positions are. For instance, if they feel they could get a legitimate 2nd reciever in rounds 4 or 5 - maybe Lemon from Syracuse? - they might not go WR early, like most of us think they will. Similarly, if they feel TE is not deep, they might go for a TE in round 2, say, and I think a lot of us would be surprised about that. Likewise with LB - they might feel they're okay at OLB for now, and they might feel they only really need to upgrade one ILB spot, and maybe they think they can get a guy in rounds 4 or 5. We'll just have to see.