I think you're VASTLY overrating the talent on the roster.
Vastly. Davis has been a huge disappointment. Knox has done little to nothing. The RBs are...average. The OL...average.
And the defense? Gutted. So, yeah, I think expecting 2-2 in a 4 game stretch is pretty lofty.
EDIT:
12-5 may not win the division, let alone secure the #1 seed. Find three more losses for KC