djp14150
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Posts posted by djp14150
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If Baltimore and Pittsburgh end up tied, they break ties within the division first, so we'd only likely have to beat out one of those teams if we end up with the same record...
Buffalo went 4-0 against the NFC vs PIT going 2-2.. They lose tie breaker to Pittsburgh tied at 10 wins.
They lose to KC ann SD due to head to head loses
They lose to Baltimore at 10-6 due to common game record.
PIT and BAL win out then PI.t has the tiebreaker of division record. If PIT went WL and BALwent LW thus tied for division record, then BAL has common games record tue breaker. IF BAL went WL then division record edge goes to PIT in tie breakers.
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A Pittsburgh loss would have helped and a Cleveland win would have helped. Cleveland had some tiebreaker edges in sorting teams in the division where they could end up in 2nd thus buffalo benefiting.
Had Pittsburgh lost then they could behave done a chain loses among teams that eliminated each other where PI.t beat beat KC, KC beat SD, and CIB beat PIT....then PITmax at 9 wins and KC max at 9 wins....both below buffalo.
Bills win tiebreaker over Baltimore.
Which one?????
Both BUF and BAL went 4-0 against NzfC so it goes to common games
Common opponents are MIA, CLE, SD, and HOU
Buffalo went WL, W, L,L for 2-3
BAL has best CLE and MIA and lost to SD for 2-1.. Last 2 are common games..they split it's 3-2
Okay..... for us to get in we must win out - no question. There is a scenario of realistic results that gets us in at 10-6.
Pittsburgh win out (beating Kansas City and Cinci)
Ravens win out (beating Houston and Cleveland)
Kansas City lose out (to Pittsburgh and San Diego)
Cinci lose out (to Denver and Pittsburgh)
San Diego lose the next 2 (Denver now and 49ers next week)
The most unrealistic result in there is us beating New England. There is still some hope. Billieve.
Under this scenario Pittsburgh win division, Baltimore wild card at 11-5 SD by beating KC is at 10 wins but buffalo lose H2H tiebreaker.
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I don't think this is accurate.
Your saying if KC and Baltimore win next week we are eliminated?
Assuming no ties...yes
KC and SD both at 9 wins and play each other in week 17 thus 10 wins
Baltimore wins they have 10 wins
PZiT/CIN winner will have 10 wins or more
So buffalo is ties with 2 other teams at 10 wins and they lose tiebreakers to all based in conferencecrecord, and other tuebreakers
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Even if buffalo wins next week they could still be eliminated next week.
What does buffalo need....
Win out gorge 10-6 and only one other wilcard team at 10 wins or better. They lose tiebreakers to all:
SD lose today against DEN
9.5. CIN. DEN at PIT--- lose both
9 BAL at HOU cle-- lose at least one
9. PIT. KC. CIN---win both ( for division)
8. KC. At PIT. SD --- split
9. SD. At SF at KC--lose both
If KC beats Pittsburgh....and Baltimore beats Houston....then buffalo is eliminated ( assuming no ties) before they snap the ball at OAK.
Why? KC/SD winner is assured of 10 wins and Baltimore has 10 wins, and PIT/CIN winner is assured of 10 wins
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I dont think we get compensated for him since we didnt draft him.
We should get a comp pick for Byrd. We should have gotten one for Levitre
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In the NFC its a little less complicated....
Even though SF lost today they do have head to head tie breaker advantages on Dallas and Philadelphia due to beating both. Dallas and Philadeklphia are alos hurt by having gone undefeated against the AFC which will hurt them on conference tiebreakers.
If SF and DET were tied for a tie at 10-6 it could get into the deeper tiebreakers of strenght of victory and strength of schedule.If DEt beats CHI and ends up 10-6 they will have the tiebreaker based on common game record.
If Detroit stays within one game of GB before week 17 rematch then that game would be for the division.
Seattle at Arizona in week 16 also looks like it will be for the division.
Based on H2H Dallas over Seattle
Seattle over Philadelphia
Arizona beat Dallas
Arizona beat Philadelphia
SF beat Dallas
SF beat Philadelphia
Seattle beat GB
Arizona beat Detroit
Green Bay beat Philadelphia
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The updated playoff picture.
division leaders: New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Denver
San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore have 8 wins
Buffalo, Miami, Cleveland, Kansas city, and houston have 7 wins
How can Buffalo make the playoffs......assuming Buffalo wins out.....
In order to win the division they need New England to lose to Miami and the Jets, Miami to lose to either Minnesota or the Jets,
To get a wild card......Buffalo wins out and:
1. miami to lose 1
2 houston to lose 1
and:
3 of these 4:
A. Cincinati to lose 2
B Baltimore to lose 2
C Pittsburgh to lose 2
D Cleveland to lose 1
either:
and:
D San diego to lose 2
E Kansas City to lose 1
In plan english.
Buffalo finishes 10-6, Miami at 9-7.
In the AFC North all non division winners have less than 10 wins
Houston is 9-7
and the 3rd place team in the AFC west has less than 10 wins.
the other option is the 2nd place in the AFC north can have 10 wins, but the AFC West 2nd place team has less than 10 wins.
schedules remaining:
NE MIA jets BUF
BUF GB oak ne
MIA ne MIN JETS
CIN cle DEN pit
BAL JAX hou CLE
PIT atl KC CIN
CLE CIN car balt
IND hou DAL tenn
HOU indy BALT JAX
DEN sd cin OAK
SD DEN sf kc
KC OAK pit SD
on paper
San Diego and Cincinnati have difficult schedules left its a real possiblity they end up with less than 10 wins.
Pittsburgh also has a difficult schedule
Ideally you want KC and SD to end up both 9-6 and they play each other where the winner gets one wild card. Even better---SD ends up 8-7 playing at 9-6 KC and beat them.
Another scenario to pay attention to.....
Cleveland winning out at 10-6...they could have the tiebreaker advantages at 10-6 on both Pittsburgh and Baltimore.. Cincinnati would end up 10-5-1 for the division, then the rest end up 10-6...Clevelenad would get 2nd place. Then Buffalo would have the tiebreaker advantage on Cleveland.
If buffalo and clevalnd are tied at 10-6 both in 2nd place and SD or KC was alone in 2nd at 10-6 (other at 9-7), then KC/Sd get seed 5 because of better conference record. Buffalo gets #6 due to H2H win over Cleveland.
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RG 1+1+1 mod 3 = 0
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Odds are Cincy wins the div and either Ravens or Stillers don't make the WC.
As of today
http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false
The Bills hold the tie breaker over both Baltimore & Pittsburgh
If Pittsburgh wins out they are ahead of Cincinnati...4 wins put them at 11-5 and by beating Cincy twice limits then to only a 10-5-1 record.
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do we control our own destiny ?
if we win all 4 remaining games are we GUARANTEED a playoff spot ?
or do we need help ?
There is no certainty ....why
Buffalo lose a lot of tiebreakers with teams.
Baltimore, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Kansas City ( 2 win their division)all can end up at 11-5 and buffalo loses to all of them for the wild card.
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Week 14 -- who we want in key games
Steelers @ Bengals -- Bengals as we want them to win out the division and beat WC competitors Steelers and Browns
Jets @ Vikes - Jets as it helps our SoS
Ravens @ Dolphins - I think Ravens as Fins are currently ahead in the WC rankings, may also help in somewhat unlikely event it comes down to us and Dolphins in the division
Texans @ Jags - Jags
Chiefs @ Cardinals - Cardinals
Patriots @ Chargers - tough one to call, if we win and Pats lose that's only 1 back in the loss column, which would be an amazing closing of the gap. But if we can't catch them then it would have been better off they register a loss for a WC competitor. Personally I'd take a Patriots loss as it gives us another angle at the playoffs, and take our chances that Chargers lose other remaining games to Broncos, and Chiefs and 9ers on the road
You actually want to root for the Dolphins....A Dolphins win will give Buffalo the third tiebreaker of common games.
A miami win puts them at a noncommon record of 2-0 (along with New england) while Buffalo is 1-1
from there all you need is the Dolphins to lose a divisional game and not go 5-1
If buffalo and Miami were to win out then Miami would be 1st at 11-5, Buffalo in 2nd at 11-5 and New England in 3rd at 11-5. If Miami lose an additional game (Jets or Minnesota) then Buffalo wins the division. If Mia was to lose to NE then nyou need NE lose a different game like this weekend at San diego.
If Baltimore was to win...then that put Miami at 1-1 in noncommon. Then if Miami and Buffalo were to end up tied, Miami would likely have the tiebrekers. As of right now a better divisional record, they would split H2H and common games. Miami would have a better conference record by going 1-2 against the NFC to BUF 3-0
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By beating the Browns, the Bills are now ahead of the Ravens, Steelers, and Browns for the tiebreaker. None of the teams with which we'll be competing for a spot with have easy schedules either.
Really isn't correct....
Buffalo has h2H tiebreaker on Cleveland.
At the end of the season if Pittsburgh and buffalo are tied Pittsburgh will get it because of better conference record= worse record against NFC. Buffalo is 3-0 now, Pittsburgh 1-2 so buffalo is certain to have better NFC record thus worse AFC record.
With Baltimore...Baltimore went 4-9 against NFC, buffalo is 3-0. If buffalo beats Green Bay and also goes 4-0 then it's common game tiebreaker which Baltimore likely wins. Buffalo went 2-3 while Baltimore is 2-1 with 2 to play. If buffalo lose to Green Bay, then they get the tie breaker with a better conference record, because they have a worse NFC record.
@ESPNNFL: There's a scenario where EIGHT AFC teams could finish 9-7 (via @Grantland33) » http://t.co/E1CMJaTKpJ http://t.co/eRAz7GgGCp
It's very easy....I see Cleveland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and KC going 9-7.. San Diego could given their tough schedule.
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AFC Team schedules: ( not counting den/KC, Mia/jets)
Buffalo. At Denver, Green Bay, at Oakland , at New England
New England. At San Diego, Miami, at jets, buffalo
Miami Baltimore, At New England, Minnesota, at jets
Cincinnati. Pitt, at cle, den, at Pitt
Baltimore at Miami, jax, at Houston, Cleveland
Pittsburgh. At CIN, at ATL, KC , CIN
Cleveland. Indy, cin, at Carolina, at Balt
Indy. At cle, HOU, at Dallas, at Tennessee
Houston at jax, st Indy, Balt, jax
Denver. Buffalo, at San Diego, at Cincy , Oakland
San Diego. New England, Denver, at SF at KC
Kansas City. At Arizona, Oakland, at Pittsburgh, San Diego
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Cardinals did lose Carson Palmer for the season. Big difference between him and Stanton.
They played some games without him earlier in the season and they did fine. Sure Palmer is better but the team is still decent.
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I kind of agree with this without looking at the actual numbers. Seems like we'd rather see Denver pull away with it (with a loss to the Bills notwithstanding) and watch the Chefs nosedive to the finish. I don't see the Broncos missing the playoffs.
Denver. At KC, buffalo, at San Diego, at cincinati, Oakland
San Diego New England, Denver, at Sf, At KC
KC. Denver, at AZ, Oakland, at Pittsburgh, San Diego
You want SD to beat NE
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so we want Denver to lose tonight?
It doesn't matter as much.
If they beat KC it's a season sweep thus a 3 game edge on KC which could keep Denver not falling to 3rd. Then we need to root fir SD. Bills bear Denver...Denver at San Diego in a few weeks would give Denver the other loss.
If they lose that gives them the 1st loss then KC is tied with them then you need to root fir KC to take the division then hope Denver beats SD to sweep season series which could make it for Denver to be 2nd.
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Only for now. Miami goes ahead with a win on Monday.
Miami would be ahead of them because buffalo is 3-2 in division vs Miami 3-1.. Better win pct and better record potential.
If buffalo and Baltimore win out Baltimore would be ahead of buffalo due to common games.
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As I mention on the other thread.....
Buffalo loses H2H with KC and SD and HOU. They have H2H on Cleveland
With Pittsburgh they lose because of conference record with pit right now 1-2 and buffalo 3-0
Baltimore if buffalo lose to Green Bay they will have a better conference record with Balt going 4-0. If buffalo beats GB going 4-0 then common opponent comes into play with Baltimore likely winning because buffalo has played CZlE, MIA, HOU, and SD. Buffalo is done at 2-3 while Baltimore is 2-1.
I don't see Indy losing the division. Cincy kissed their sister so there won't be ties factored with them.
Best scenario for buffalo...
Buffalo beat Denver
Denver finished in 2nd with KC or SD winning it
Cleveland finishes in 2nd
Buffalo has H2H on both teams.
Buffalo can still win the division if they can
Gain 2 games on New England before week 17 thus being one game out then it's potentially winner take all week 17 game.
Miami could have the 3 team tiebreaker if the sweep New England.
Buffalo has the 3rd tie breaker on New England if tied by them going 1-1 in noncommon games vs New England going 2-0. They have the same edge on Miami if they beat Baltimore next week.
If Miami lose to Baltimore Aldo going 1-1 then Miami will have the 4th tiebreaker of conference record with them going 1-2 vs buffalo 3-0 against NFC.
They need Miami to lose a game. If buffalo and Miami win out Miami is ahead of buffalo by division record tiebreaker. The person who showed those standings are incorrect. Technically Miami is in 2nd right now because of the potential to be better in division record.
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Still a long shot... but the AFC North does noticeably worse when they are not playing the NFC South..... that might mean there are a few more shock results for those teams down the road.
They are playing both south divisions..the two weakest so it's inflated their record. It's the type of scenario that can happen
The divisions split at 3-3 then they all go 6-2 against 2 weak divisions for a record of 9-5 then it comes down yo common games where they could go 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2 thus you could have a 4th place team at 10-6 and impossible to make the playoffs.
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Buffalo had a real shot but tie breakers could hurt them.
They lose H2H against HOU, KC and SD
Have H2H against Cleveland
See what happens next week with Denver
They beat GB they would be 4-0 against the NFC which will hurt then with conference record tiebreakers
The scenarios to route for at 10-6 or 11-5...
They beat Denver and Denver and/or Cleveland finish in 2nd place. Buffalo has H2H tiebreakers against both.
they need to beat Denver and have them end up in 2nd place with the same record as buffalo and have either KC or SD win the division.
For the division they need to win their next 3 and NE lose 2 of their next 4 ( including at GB) thus buffalo is one game back goining into week 17 with a scenario of winner gets division. They need Miami to lose a game because there is a scenario of a 3 team tie at 11-5 or 10-6 and Miami sweeps NE then Miami gets the 3 team tiebreaker.
Buffalo has 3rd tiebreaker on NE with common game record by going 1-1 in non common vs New England 2-0. If Miami beats Baltimore next week they go 2-0 so buffalo would have the 3rd tiebreaker on them...if Miami loses then they have the 4th tiebreaker on buffalo with better conference record if tied.
1st tue breaker is H2H
2nd division
3rd common games
4th conference record
5th and beyond are hard to forecast because it's with strength of victory, strength of schedule, and pts scored.
For wild car between divisions it's H2H, conference record, then common games.
If 3 teams tied from different divisions then it's h2h either one best both IR list to both, then conference record, then common games with minimum of 4 games.
Baltimore went 4-0 against NFC so if buffalos only lose was to GB and they are tied at 10-6 then buffalo would have better conference record. If they both go 4-0 against NFC then it's common games which Baltimore likely wins. As if right now the common opponents are Miami, Cleveland, Houston, and San Diego. Buffalo went 2-3 right now Baltimore is 2-1 with MIA and CLE left.
For Pittsburgh...they would have better conference record by them going 1-2 against the NFC vs buffalo 3-9 as of now.
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I live outside of buffalo so I don't listen to the local media.
Anyone hear anything about his recovery?
I saw an article from the bills site.
Given buffalo is thinking playoffs there is an incentive to bring him back. Were they eliminated they wouldn't.
I'm thinking he could come back week 16.
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Tasker had a legit excuse to miss the game as was already posted.
In general over the course of the season most crews except for the top 2 teams usually get a week off during the season.
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Buffalo wins out and New England loses one time between now and prior to week 17 --Buffalo wins the division.
turnovers at inopportune times have killed Buffalo
1. Houstin...no pick 6, Buffalo gets a FG...Buffalo would have lead 201-13 late in the game (thus Houston doesnt kick that FG late)
2. New England---13 gimmie points off of turnovers...the score 37-24. Bufalo doesnt give up one of those 2 long pass TDS makes a difference as well.
3. Kansas City---score likely 23-10 without the 2 turnovers.
San Diego was the only game they lost---they likely would have been different if they were playing them now.
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They hold into the ball those two times Buffalo wins 23-10
---they get 7 pts instead of 0.
--KC doesnt get 7
--buffalo kicks a FG inside the redzone instead of going for it on 5th giving them 3.
Updated: The AFC Playoff Picture
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I had them at 9 wins...my error.
Which could be the case if SD wins this afternoon.