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djp14150

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Posts posted by djp14150

  1. http://msn.foxsports...avorites-092911

    Roughing the passer penalties per 100 dropbacks

    R. Fitzpatrick 0.91

     

    T. Brady 0.16

     

     

    Fitz gets much more calls for him contrary to perception.

     

    Thesenumbers are meaningless without understand more of how its calculated.

     

    One reason Fitz would be higher is that he doesnt get the league respect like Brady does. The DL know if they blow on Brees will get flagged but with Fitz they feel they can take a chance.

  2. Bills looking for depth and two draft picks are on IR or on another team... Does anyone know if Sanders was injured or just placed on IR so he did not get cut. Asper was signed by Minnesota after he was cut. Anyone know if he is playing at all? I see he is still on their roster.

     

    Sanders was put on Buffalo's IR before the last cuts...he is still with the team.

     

    Asper is on the current 53 man roster for the Vikings.

  3. With either Cincinnati or Pittsburgh...if they go 4-0 against NFC and end up in second place tied for 9-7 with Buffalo...Buffalo will have better conference record.

     

    With Cincinnati Buffalo would have a common game advantage if they are tied with the same conference record which is the same as they both go 3-1 against the NFC. with Pittsburgh they would have a tied common games record so it will come down to strength of victory.

     

    As far as i can tell their will be NO SCENARIO where Buffalo can go into week 17 with control of their own fate.

     

    An alternate what if universe.....

     

    Had Buffalo, New York, and Miami all beat New England in their close games against the Pats the division would be all tied at 6-6.

  4. I am starting a playoff scenario thread to talk about the playoff scenarios as of now.

     

     

    tie-breaking procedures.

     

    First sort teams within division before playoff spots determined.

     

    1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
    2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
    3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
    4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
    5. Strength of victory.
    6. Strength of schedule.
    7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    9. Best net points in common games.
    10. Best net points in all games.
    11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
    12. Coin toss

    These sort division. For wild cadr from different divisions 2does not apply and #4 comes before #3.

     

    AFC

     

    New England has clinched East

    Denver has clinched the West

     

    Houston's magic number is 2 for division title...any combination of Houston wins and Indy loses.

    Baltimore can clinch the division with a win and loses by PIT and CIN .

     

     

    For the Wild Card slots

     

    Indy 8-4

    PIT, CIN 7-5

    BUF, MIA, NYJ 5-7

     

    MIA beat CIN,, PIt beat NYJ, IND beat BUF and MIA, NYJ beat IND

     

    For Buffalo to make the wild card they need to finish 4-0, have CIN and PIT go 2-2 then it will come down to conference record and common opponents. Buffalo against NFC would go 3-1, PIT currently 3-0, CIN currently 2-0. With common games Buffalo would edge CIN 3-2 vs 5-0. Buf and Pit tie at 3-2 which would put the tiebreakers into strength of victory which Pittsburgh will likely be ahead.

     

    PIT: sd, at dal, cin. cle

    CIN: dal, at phl, at pit, balt

     

     

    NFC

     

     

    in case you were wondering...the SF tie is viewed as a half win and a half loss so they effectivly their record is 8.5-3.5 instead of 8-3-1 this season so far.

     

     

    Atlanta has clinched South...can clinch #1 with W and CHI, GB, Giants and SF ALL lose once.

    Green Bay leads North

    Giants lead East

    San Fran leads West

     

    For wild card

     

    Chicago 8-4

    Seattle 7-5

    DAL, TB, MIn 6-6

    WAS 5-6

    NO 5-7

     

    SEA beat CHI, WAS beat DAL, NO., DAL& WAS beat TB, MIN DAL still plays WAs and NO.

     

    If CHI beats MIN next week Chicago will finish ahead of Minnesota. Thus this makes Minnesota's chances very difficult.

     

    Giants have one of the more difficult schedules left having to play( NO, at ATL, at BAL, PHL) so If WAS beats NYG tomorrow night I wouldnt be surprised if DAL-WAS week 17 is for the division.

  5. I am not certain on the home/road NFC games ...i havent seen them formally announce those matchups. I know the pairings of teams are what they are where NEW Orleans/Tampa Bay is one pairing as Pitt/cle is another pairing where they either play both at home or both on the road.

     

    As for placement opponents it all depends on where they place.

     

    There isnt much separating teams in this league.

     

    The biggest factors by fair is health of the team players and confidence. Confidence is what is carrying Indy this year.

     

    In terms of the AFC North opponents---pittsburgh still is getting older...they dont intimidate me. Having Cincinati and baltimore at home is a plus.

  6. I said at the beginning of the season that if the Bills finished at .500 it would be a good year. Despite their record, I think the team is showing progress. The defense is coming together, when healthy the OL is top-notch. We have a great RB. We are a QB, LB and WR away from being a playoff team. If we make it to 8-8, I say Chan and Wannastache should stay rather than to start all over again with a new regime.

     

    no it wouldnt given who they were playing.....that had a weak schedule against the AFC South and NFC West. a 9-7 or better was expected.

  7. Forget QB, focus on the defense since you brought it up. Dareus - sophomore slump or another enigmatic big body? Don't know. Gilmore - massive struggles on an island, but there's enough hope for improvement. Other than that, his defensive draftees will be lucky to be on NFL rosters, let alone meaningfully contribute.

     

    Which leads to the entire point about Nix, that despite his straight out of Hollywood football stereotype, his performance as GM has been putrid so far.

     

    Its the defensive system he is playing in now that is the problem....the defense is not designed to the defense's strength.

     

    Yes, they are fully welcome on PPP, where lack of reading comprehension is treated properly. Perhaps it's the reason you've taking a beating there.

     

    To restate the point for the wannabe trolls, the Bills under Nix have drafted poorly, and as a testament to how badly the drafts have been on defense - the only two players who you can hang any hope of future stardom have not played up to the level of their draft positions. You expect the No 4 pick to dominate the DL. You expect a Top 10 CB to have decent one on one skill. They may get there, but they are certainly not there now. Is that simple enough for you?

     

    Actually they didnt draft poorly.....

     

    The drafted based on what they thought about going to.

     

    Remember they had for a long time had a 4-3 defense. Had Gailey kept that defense and just focused on the offense the team would have gotten alot better. Instead he went to a 3-4 defense which meant they had to have the defense take a few steps back in needing to change all their defensive front 7. They picked the wrong 3-4 defensive coordinator for the job. 2 years later Gailey went after 2 yrs back to a 4-3 so now they have to rebuild the personnel to fit that. The problem area now is in LB.

  8. Baltimore made a 4th and 29 with under 2 minutes left. It was a close call with poor angles to determine if he made enough. On top of that they moved the chains before the review was done.

     

    Thinking of a non hail mary 4th and long play that was made...they have been trying to research records for it.

     

    A few plays mentioned was an Eagles RB from about dozen years ago in the playoffs made a 4th and 26 play.

     

    Rob Johnson made threw to Perrless Price to make a 4th and 34.

  9. The QBs arent going to fall that far. Berkley goes in the first round. I see Jones also going in the first round.

     

    I see Buffalo drafting 18-24 range. Any inside top notch ILB will not be available. I still could see them drafting a LB and QB in the first and 2nd.

     

    What I would see them doing is to trade down to lower part of the first then move up in the second round with what they acquired. Doesnt matter which order but one will be QB and the other LB.

  10. I hate NE more than any other team, but NYJ losing effectively takes them out of the playoff picture, and almost guarantees I'll win a preseason bet that they won't have a winning record.

     

    Id rather have the Jets win.

     

    Buffalo needs NE to lose 4 times to get the division title. The stay have San Fran and Houston in foxborough. these two weeks they are at Jets then at the dolphins. then they close at Jacksonville and then host Miami.

     

    I doubt it but id like to see them lose 4 straight.

     

    Bills play the Jets to close the season so Bills win out they will finish at least in second place.

  11. There really isn't much that separates teams in the NFL. Any team can best anyone else.

     

    What separates playoff teams frm the others are

     

    1. Play execution

    2. Confidence

    3. Schedule friendliness

    4. Health/ injuries to your team and your opponents

     

     

    A team like Cleveland currently at 2-8 could easily be 8-2.. 3 of their losses the had 4th quarter leads, the other 3 losses they had the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead from mid 3rd quarter on. In their other 2 loses ..one to the giants they got up 14-0 with a chance to go up by 3 scores....against cincinati there defense couldn't stop them.. In the second half it was browns score to make it a 7 pt deficit only to have the bengals come back and score to make it a two Possesion game.

     

    Atlanta at 9-1.....they easily could be 5-5 or 4-6. 5 of their wins they were trailing in 4 and tied in 1 at some point in the 4th quarter.

  12. 5 of their 6 losses were by 8 pts or less ( 1 score losses).

     

    That's what happens after a team has a breakout year. Teams pay closer attention to them.

     

    They have gone 0-4 in divisional play. Had they gone 2-2 they would have been 6-4.

     

    In 2011 they played the afc west where they went 4-0 and NFC south where they went 2-2 and 3-3 in division play.

  13. Way I see it...I believe its likely Buffalo draft spot will be 17-23. I dont expect a stud LB to be available then because they get taken early in the first. There are a bunch of QBs who project to be last third of the 1st round to early 3rd round.

     

    If they draft later I see no problem with them drafting a QB...What I would prefer they did was to do some movement to drop down later in the 1st and then move up earlier in the second. then draft a QB and LB.

     

    I disagree with lumping the USC QBs into one pool. Leinart is different. He really didnt get a fair shot in Arizona. For any pro you are going to have bad games...its a learning process. it takes a couple years for a Qb to learn the job. He was in the situation with Kurt Warner behind him who could still do it. It reminds me in some ways to the Brees/Rivers issue in SD. Then he goes to Houston as the obvious back up. He gets is shut with the injury to Schaub...then he gets injured. Had he not have gotten injuried he would have been a high demand QB that was in the bidding war with Flynn for jobs.

  14. these arent mistakes by Spiller but mistakes in either play calls or Fitz passing decisions.

     

    Tonight i saw late in the first quarter when 10-7 on a third down. Spiller was out as a WR and the CB was more than 5 yds off of him. This is where you improvize and snap and throw the ball to him and let him take on a DB 1 on 1...he likely gets the first down if not more.

     

    Last play against the Patriots Fitz looks to him and sees they could run a slant throw to him and he walks into the end zone.

     

    There are more plays like this.

     

     

    I liked one play they ran that seems to be tailored where you had Spiller and Johnson run routes on the same side of the field. The D-man bit and went up to Spiller which left Johnson open. Had the D-man stay back Spiller would have been open.

  15. They go 6-1 for 9-7 ....and they beat Indy...they have a very good shot at a WC.

     

    Pittsburgh may be in a lot of trouble if Rothesburger is out for a significant amount of time due to the throwing shoulder injury in Mondays game.

     

    a potential problem scenario is with indy.....They play at NE and host Buffalo...assume they lose both. they need to lose at Detroit or when hosting Tennesee. Houston could clinch home field after week 14 which means they rest their players for the indy games thus it becomes easy for indy to win those games.

     

    in week 14 Houston at New england...they already beat Baltimore and Denver so beating New england could clinch home field throughout.

     

    A probelm scenario is Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and indy all tied at 10-6 or 9-7 for the two wild cards. Then the H2H win with indy doesnt matter so it goes to conference record as the first tiebreaker. If Pittsburgh sweeps the Browns they will have Common game edge on Buffalo. They split it then they are tied in common games.

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