appoo

That's sort of what I was disagreeing with. For example, restructure both Hughes and Addison so they only hit at <5M in terms of cap (which is likely what they'd get in the open market), release Morse, Brown and Jefferson, sign a legit EDGE - and you have an excellent 4 man rotation at the EDGE with Hughes, New Signing, AJE, and Addison. You combine that with an elite 1T in Oliver, a pretty good 3T in Star...and that gets you to pretty close to an elite pass rush, equivalent to that of the Bucs, depending on who you sign as your new EDGE. The Chiefs made the D look bad, but they took advantage of basically a single match-up issue - our DEs vs their tackles. Oliver actually had a pretty good game, and with just one guy like Barrett, that's a VERY different ball game. The Bills have a better back 7 than the Bucs.

Sucks is a strong word. Hughes, Oliver, and both backers are all plus players. Star is going to be another good one. AJE, with a good off season, has potential to be above average. Oliver especially has superstar potential if we ever get him back playing primarily 1T, and he has someone next to him to keep the double/triples off him. This team DID go 13 - 3, and they pretty much destroyed the Ravens & Steelers' OLine.

Think Levis lacks the quickness to be a slot corner. I actually think a more interesting plan would be to use Levi as your boundary corner, Dane as your field corner, and Tre as your slot corner.

Bills certainly have a better OLine, and the Bills strength on the OLine is better suited against the Bucs strengths, which is on the edge. Dawkins and Williams are approx a million times better than what the Chiefs had out there at tackle. Basically, the Bucs wouldn't have had NEARLY the pass rush effectiveness they did against the Chiefs. Football at this level, is about matchups. I think the Bills would have put up 30+, depending on the health of Beasley and Gabe Davis. They'd have moved the ball well. Defensively? Well that's problematic. The Bucs do bring a pretty good OLine, and getting pressure would have required a lot of blitzing. McDermott is happy to bring pressure when he doesn't fear the opposing passing attack (Ravens, when he pressured LJ at a historic level, more than the Bucs did to Mahomes actually), but likely would have employed a bend but don't break against the Bucs. Now the Bills have a more talented back 7 than the Chiefs, but the Bucs also bring two elite perimeter threats in Godwin and Evans....I think the Bucs wouldn't get big plays, but would get their yards and first. Basically? I think this game would have come down to RZ TD conversion. Put me down for this game being a toss up

Against the Chiefs, the Bucs were often in a base 4 down look, and they rarely sent any blitzers. So Barrett played DE in that game the same way McDermott would use him. Let's not over think this one. Barrett would be perfect for this defense. (on a related note - Mahomes actually played really well that game. He was pressured on more than 50% of his drop backs, which basically what the Bills did to Lamar Jackson...that fact that he produced the yards/1st downs he did was a testament to his talent. Similar game to Allen in the AFCCG - whom I also gave a lot of credit to) You've got to be average somewhere, and Levi wouldn't be a bad option at that position.

All in all, it's not a great year for EDGE defenders in FA, as I don't think there's a guy out there who would be a consensus choice, except maybe Shaq Barrett who's going to be a 20M a year guy. I guess that's within the realm of possibility, but it would seriously limit what you can do with the other 10 - 12 players the bills would need - which includes 2 starters on the oline, and a new backer as well, and at least one more WR who can contribute.

Bills can generate almost 35M in cap space by cutting Morse, Addison, Brown, Hughes and Jefferson. Maybe you re-structure Hughes to get him down a to a 5M hit so you can sit at 30M. But you gotta be willing to use that space to get an elite EDGE, IMO. And replace those dudes with draft picks, practice squad players who can provide depth, or vet FA who are on the cheaper side

I agree with this, except that neither Levi nor Norman will even be on the roster. They are both F/As, and I don't really see a need for the Bills to resign either, even with an extra 6M in they seem to be speculating about. You could easily replace Levi with a contract friendlier draft pick, and you just elevate Dane Jackson to replace Norman. To me, getting either Clowney or Ngakoue would be a priority.

They're not even in the same ball park in terms of ability. Even as much as Peterson struggled in 2020, I think he'd be perfect for us in our man/zone hybrid scheme. The real problem is that he might get 10M AAV for 2 years in the market.

So was Richard Sherman when he went to the Niners, and he responded with two really good seasons. I'd be all in on Peterson

exactly. When they’re not allowed to cheat, it’s a very average defense

Yea, excellent point. I hadn't realized he was so checked out. I think 5M would be the cutoff for me (Edge defenders tend to be really expensive), but anything more and I think you're using too much cap for someone who's such an enigma. It's an interesting philosophical discussion. One of the ways college teams counter elite programs with blue chip recruited defenders, is with tempo. Not just how fast you snap, but how quickly you release the ball. When a QB is throwing the ball in less than 3 seconds, getting a sack is almost out the question. I've been noticing some of that show in the NFL these days. When that happens, just moving him off his base and delaying him half a second is basically a win, and that's where someone like Jerry Hughes adds a ton of value. Guys who win their matchup in the first 2 seconds. It's an evolving game, and we might need better metrics.

That's a fair critique

Clowney is still a disruptive player, even if he doesn't get sacks. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/10/jadeveon-clowney-pressures-no-sacks-titans He tends to grade well without those stats. Right now he's a younger version of the current Jerry Hughes. You could do well to get him for about 5M

If the Texans cut him then yes (He doesn't have a dead cap number). Which they should do if they're rebuilding, to give him an opportunity to win now. Even then, he;s looking at a minimum of Mario Addison money. 3 years 30M. Though the Bills end up saving 10M by cutting Mario. You're basically trading him for Mall Milano (which I would do without hesitation). He still had a pretty good PFF grade for his 2020 season

Watch out for the Ravens, who have very little in Cap space tied to LB, only really who run a 3-4 (Milano is basically a perfect 3-4 ILB), can cut the aging LJ Fort and save 2.3M, though they do have to replace Judon, Ngakou (either of whom I'd love with Buffalo), Willie Snead and Derek Wolf, They also have about 20M in cap space to mess around with. So they'll be looking for an EDGE and WR first, but perhaps sneak in Milano as well.

They'll have a similar dilemma as the Bills, which is do you pay two backers big money? Because they're going to have to pay Darius Leonard, who's entering his final year on his rookie contract.

What I mean about man coverage is that Edmunds would drop into his zone, he'd actually recognize the play and attempt to pick up Kelce, and then lose him - either because Mahomes moved him, or Kelce lose him with his footwork. I was wrong to call it man coverage, agree with that, and I don't think I disagree with you on Edmunds' weakness here, which goes beyond dropping and reacting, but picking up nuance.

sorry, I'm not trying to be an ahole here, just disagreeing with you. There's a lot of areas that the Bills can improve, and one of those areas is Edmunds in man coverage. Once he got healthy he was close to an elite run defender, and an above average zone coverage backer. Where he needs to get better is in man (which Kelce exploited), and getting better at rushing the passer (he really should be better than he is, considering his athletecism). But in the narrative of the off-season, a large part has to do with paying either Milano or Edmunds or both - Edmunds seems to get blamed for a lot of things that either he's not responsible for, and in the case of AFCCG, wasn't out of the realm of expectations given the opponent and how well they were playing. If I'm Beane & McDermott, Edmunds isn't what I'm trying to fix this off-season, and Milano @ 12-14 he'll need to stay is over resourcing Linebacker, when you should be using that money to find an elite EDGE, another EDGE and a starting 2nd corner.

Edmunds rarely gave up plays against the Colts. Most of the damage the Colts did was outside the Backers zone. So you're blaming him for something that wasn't his responsibility.

He was going up against an elite DT who never had to think about the running back going past him.

It wasn't atrocious. First of all, Tre has been probably the best Bills defender for the 2nd half of the season, including playoffs, up till the Chiefs. Second of all, he was fine in run support. Finally, the only reason he looked "bad" was because of possibly the greatest TE in the history of the game, playing with one of the greatest QBs, to ever take a snap, supported by elite speed at WR, and a legit running game, and not having any real pass rush. Criticizing him for looking "bad" against Kelce in that particular offense with that particular set of offensive coaching, is like blaming me for looking bad in a game of chess, against Bobby freakin Fischer. The opponent matters. There's not a linebacker in the NFL who's going to look good, when the Chiefs offense, and specifically Travis Kelce, are cooking.

Darron Lee is perhaps the Bills' insurance against Milano leaving, is McDermott is married to his system. He's basically the poorer version of Milano, though perhaps with more athletic upside, as Lee has tested better than Milano

I think a lot of you are underestimating how hard it is to find linebackers who are good enough to be on the field on all 3 downs, and be a strength in all phases of coverage, run support and pass rush. I don't think the Bills should pay Milano, because I'd rather have Edmunds and think it's a waste of cap space to have two highly paid field generals, but that doesn't mean Milano isn't deserving of it. He's very good. And his skill set isn't all that common

When the Bills go 5-2, they use basically a Will and a Mike, but not really an outside backer. McDermott's system isn't really a 4-3. He has that package to deploy though, as he uses it the rare times Klein is on the field. The NFL is pass happy, but when you have 2 top notch backers, I think McDermott's scheme is awesome. Having a backer who can cover a huge amount of space, blitz, and still play the run is a real weapon, and when you have 2, it's like having a Unicorn defense. That's why the Bills are almost always in a 5-2. Literally, I don't think the Bills have run a dime look this year. The Chiefs used that as their primary defense against the Bills last weekend. realize "5-2" can be confusing. What I'm meaning is a 4-2-5.