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This is good info. Thanks. I've also heard a couple of people criticize Dorsey for using motion pointlessly on some plays. I don't see how it's ever pointless. Even if it's a running play and you don't particularly care if the D is in zone or man, you still might want to put a guy in motion to influence the defensive alignment. Or simply to not telegraph that it's a running play. You never want to fall into a pattern where, for example, someone can say, "The Bills only use motion in x and y situations." Random use of motion makes the offense less readable.

Many teams, maybe most, put a spy on OJ. Fergie became a good QB in later years but when he first got to the NFL his job was to hand off. Our passing attack in 1973 wasn't anything special. Neither was our defense. So the opposing team's game plan was to slow OJ down. If they did that, they'd win. With an entire defense focused on him every week, OJ still averaged 143 yards. People forget the rules were different then. Hash marks were wider out often squeezing the offense against a sideline. Linemen couldn't block with their hands. And so on. Virtually all the rule changes since the 1970s have favored the offense gaining yards and scoring easier. Schemes and philosophies were different back then. More RBs were taken #1 overall in the draft in the 1970s than QBs. While QBs were important, many teams built their offenses around bell cow running backs. The best athletes didn't become WRs and CBs, they became RBs. The coaching mantra was: Establish the run to open the pass. Then it was all about the run. So defenses were designed to stop the run. The Nickel defense we currently run as our base would be considered a pass-prevent defense back then. LBs weren't coverage guys and blitz specialists. They were big, violent thumpers like Dick Butkus and Chuck Bednarik whose sole goal in life was to crush running backs. By 1997, Barry's best year, the league had changed. Seasons were longer, defenses were more concerned with the pass, and the rule changes made it easier for offenses to move the ball and score. Barry topped out at 2053 but a couple other guys also took advantage of the changes and finished over 1500 yards. Still, it was a very good year for Barry as he finished an impressive 17% above the next best guy. In 1973, in a 14 games season where the best athletes played running back and defenses were focused on the run, OJ got 2003 yards - a whopping 75% more yards than the next best guy. OJ wasn't just a little better than his peers. He was on a different freaking planet. His combination of speed, grace, power, elusiveness, and vision were otherworldly. I am old enough to have watched OJ in his prime. And I don't think I've ever seen an NFL player - not even Brady - play at a level that was so much ahead of what everyone else was doing. Brady's career was amazing but how much better in his best years was he than Rodgers, Brees, or Manning. Not much - if at all. On the other hand, once Lou Saban came to town, everyone in the NFL knew OJ was the best back in the game and there was little-to-no debate.

Of course, Joe is right. A guy can play a good game, do what the team asks him to do, and not be a statistical standout. Still, Joe might be trying to get ahead of Gabe's discontent and/or massage a hurt ego.

I want Josh to have all the stuff you mentioned in the bolded parts!

It's frustrating because our OL is better than last year and yet we've been struggling in recent weeks (minus the Jets game) on offense. So although I'm happy with the progress the line has made, it's not performing as well as the NFL's elite lines. I know some analytics site somewhere says it is but, watching games, I don't believe it.

This is a hard one but I'm going... Offense: Diggs Defense: Floyd And I'm calling a Bills win. Their respective W-L records make the Eagles look like a significantly better team. But the Bills have a higher offensive, defensive, and total DVOA. The Bills also have a much higher point differential. And Brady has upgraded the offense. And the Bills just need the game more than Philly. Furthermore, Philly beat their SB nemesis last week. That was their big, emotional regular season game. They won't be as high for the Bills.

I get why you feel that way. But Belichick and other defensive-minded HC's have run good offenses. McD needs to find the right OC. And Beane needs to build a better OL and find us some speed on the outside.

Imagine you're a young man at a dance a hundred years ago. At the dance, you notice a beautiful young lady. You watch her, long for her - but so do dozens of other bucks. Out of all the guys courting her, she chooses only a dozen or so to dance with. Maybe it was your charm, good looks, or dancing skills - whatever the reason, you are thrilled to be in that elite and fortunate group. She only accepts a second dance with a few of the young stalwarts and again you are overjoyed to be among the chosen. But you are crestfallen at the end of the evening when she chooses a rival less worthy than you to be her beau. Lady Luck is fickle. McD normally gets us a dance. If you dance with Lady Luck, things might turn out. They might not. You can slant the odds in your favor by doing the right things, but you can never control the outcome. McD has made us competitive. Give him enough passes, and he'll get us a ring. Unless Andy Reid becomes available, I stay with McD.

Warner said our mesh concept was pure man-beater which he saw as a problem.

Watching part of the Dallas game yesterday, I thought of this thread. If Josh was in an offense like that - with superior pass pro and receivers running open all over the field - we'd see Josh at his ceiling.

I only watched part of the game but what I did watch filled me with envy. I wish Josh had protection like that and that and worked in a scheme that got receivers wide-open like that.

Are there are any X-and-O analysts that you can recommend as informed and insightful? When I watch a Bills game, I watch as a fan. I'll be dimly aware of formations, schemes, etc. Mostly, I'm just following the ball and either cheering or groaning. But when the game's over, I like to watch an analyst break down the offense so I better understand what happened and why.

Thanks for the homework. Impressive research! Your work has made me doubt Orlovsky's credibility as an informed, impartial football guru. I wonder why he said we only ran two run concepts?

No. I think to see Josh at his very best... (1) Get him an OC that can make optimal use of his unique skill set while at the same time correcting/covering up his flaws. Dorsey wasn't that guy. (2) Get him an OL. This year's OL is probably his best yet. But I'd love to watch Josh with time to operate behind an elite line. A dominant OL would also force defenders to respect the run game instead of sitting back in two-high zones. (3) Get him a better receiving corps. In fact, I'd be thrilled with just one change: replace Gabe with a speedster with hands. Do these three things and Josh will start winning MVP awards and setting even more records.

The long pass to Hooks before the Hail Mary was equally impressive. 35 seconds. 73 yards. No time outs. It wasn't one miracle play. It was a miraculous drive. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zu4fxr7kxM0&t=10s

When someone starts proclaiming that they have "The Truth," I usually expect a disappointing case of hubris. But HH has done his homework (thank you!). But let me ask something... I've heard Orlovsky and others say that the Bills under Dorsey mostly just used two different run concepts. Is there some core of truth to this?

Let's fantasize a bit. Let's say we outgain Philly 400 to 240 yards and win 33 - 17. Obviously, getting that win improves our odds. But it would also tell a compelling story that our offense is back on track with Joe as the OC and our defense, banged up as it is, can handle good offenses. If we beat the Eagles convincingly, my optimism will double. But if we lose, I'll cry tears of hopelessness in my plate of Buffalo wings.

Agreed. When I see a team winning, or losing, a lot of one-score games, I wonder how much luck is involved and assume it's at least part of the explanation. I read somewhere that the yards earned by an offense or allowed by a defense are fairly stable from year to year. Obviously, there are some fluctuations as you'd expect due to coaching and roster changes, injuries, and so on. Still, the teams that do well statistically one year tend to do well the next year. The teams that performly poorly tend to do so again the following year. Fumbles - particularly fumbles lost - are an exception. They seem to be a matter of fluctuating luck. And sometimes they decide the outcomes of games. You can put injuries in that category, too. Sure, conditioning is a part of the story. But many/most injuries are just bad luck - and they impact the games, too.

Sure, the coaching staff deserves credit/blame. But I did say, "oversimplification." We would have overcome a lot of mistakes and bad decisions if (1) the D was healthy, and (2) we had a better OC since the beginning of the season. Those two stand out to me as the biggest, most fundamental problems. I mentioned this in another thread... Back in 2016, during that stretch (games 3 to 15 as I recall) when ALynn was the OC and Tyrod was the QB, we averaged 27 points per game. We averaged 26 points per game (with a downward trend) this season with Dorsey and Josh. It's shameful that a TT-led offense was more productive than a Josh-led offense. With all our losses being decided by one score, we could have conceivably been undefeated with an elite OC. I doubt if Brady will emerge as an elite coordinator but I am hoping he proves himself to be better than Dorsey.

As I recall, we've never been "favorites." At the beginning of the last few seasons, the pundits, casinos, and analytical sites mostly had KC - and sometimes other teams - ahead of us in terms of probability. But I don't really care about any of that. I care about reality as best as I can see it. And from my vantage point, we've never had the league's best roster. Or even the AFC's best roster. So, a Super Bowl has never been very likely. Sometimes, I think about it like this: There are a few good teams in each conference each year each with a roughly 10% chance of winning the SB, plus or minus a few points. For the past few years, we've been one of those teams. In other words, the odds were always against us. They're just not as long as they are for a crap team like the Pats. I'm grateful that Beane and McD have gotten us into the hunt. But to improve our chances, the roster needs to get better.

I disagree. McD is a good leader. But he's up against other talented football leaders, some of whom have better & healthier rosters.

In my opinion, the best pure running back to play the game was OJ. OJ's moves were a little more subtle than Barry's but just as effective. And OJ was bigger, faster, and stronger. OJ wasn't the best blocker. He was underutilized as a receiver. But as a runner, he was a man playing with boys. I don't have the stats but I'll guess Barry had more negative plays than OJ. The highlights don't show that. If OJ wasn't murderous scum, the NFL and its fans would remember him differently. I think the top tier of running backs consists of two players: Jim Brown and OJ. I think Barry is in the next tier with Walter Payton and some others. But most people don't rank RBs that way - with OJ in the top two - because of the ick factor of OJ's post-career crimes rightfully tainting his reputation. If OJ had died in a car accident when he was traded to the 49ers, the Jimi Hendrix effect would be working in his favor and he'd be remembered as a legend.

Beane has built a good team. There's a reason why we've been AFCE champs. But it is not - and has not been - a Super Bowl-quality roster. There's a reason why we don't have Lombardi (yet).

As I recall, Dorsey had three shots against the Jets and never scored more than 20 points. It seemed like Saleh and the Jets had Josh’s (and Dorsey’s) number. Brady, with the same guys, put up 32.

McD is the Head Coach. The way I look at it, he’s responsible for ALL the losses we’ve had since his hiring. And all the wins.