hondo in seattle

This is my worry. Well, one of my worries. My bigger worry is if Brady knows how to scheme guys open. If he does, I think Shakir's efficiency and production do scale up nicely.

And when he shines, he's better than all of them. Let's hope a healthy arm, better biomechanics, and a Joe Brady-designed scheme can improve the shine-to-struggle ratio.

I agree. Despite allowing the fewest sacks in the NFL this past season, the OL was not elite. I think if an analytics guy wants to devise a new passer rating system, they need to factor in the ability to avoid sacks and complete passes while under pressure. It's easy to perform well as a QB if you're in a clean pocket most of the time and simply take the sack when you're not. That's not Josh Allen. While the picks last season were a legit cause for concern, I think some of Josh's critics overemphasized the turnovers while underappreciating the bad plays that didn't happen when Josh avoided a sack.

Interesting comparison. Looking at the '17 roster now, I don't know how McD got that motlely crew into the playoffs. There is so much uncertainty in every offseason but this one more than most. At this point in the offseason, speculating about the roster is a Rorschak Test. I learn more about the person sharing their opinion than about the players. I can see, for example, that Shaw is an open-minded optimist while FireChans is a doomsday curmodgeon. There's a saying in India, "When a pick-pocket walks down the street, all he sees is pockets." Likewise, when a hungry man in America drives down a street, all he sees is restaurants. When a horny man drives down a street, all he sees is... well, never mind. The optimists amongst us keep finding reasons to be optimistic. The pessimist mafiosas keep finding reasons to grumble. I'm a registered Independent but lean optimist. I can easily find reasons why this year's receiving corps, OL, LBs, etc will be good. But, in the end, I really have no freaking idea. And as smart as all of us are, I think there's going to be some humble pie to eat by season's end. Each year gives us surprises and this football season will be very interesting.

He was 12 of 13 last year from 30-39. He was 4 of 6 from 40-49 yards. Not great. In the post-season he was 1 of 3 from 40-49. That hurt.

I don't agree with the OP but JerseyBills does have a right to his opinion and shouldn't be beat up for it. The fact that it's an optimistic, pro-Bills opinion only strengthens that right - at least in my mafia mind. And JB could be right. There is uncertainty in the WR room. Some guys may be more productive and add more value than we expect. Shakir - was more productive than Diggs over the second half of the season. Maybe he's primed for a breakout season. Claypool - once looked like an up-and-coming starting calibre wideout. Maybe this is the year he puts it all together. Samuel - never had a good QB throwing to him. Maybe this year he showcases his talent & versatility like never before. Coleman - never played in the NFL before. Maybe Beane is right and this guy turns out to be a productive beast. MVS - has speed that maybe allows Josh to make max use of his arm strength and puts fear into defenses, opening zones underneath. Kincaid, Knox, and Cook - are all also legit targets that maybe take some heat off the WR group. Lots of maybe's here but hope is the essence of fandom.

I agree, philosophically. My daughter just came back from a trip to Europe and I gave her crap for eating McDonalds one day. When in Europe: do European things, eat European food. And mostly, she did. But seeing a Bills game in London would be an exception for me. It seems like it'd be a great experience to see the Bills play overseas. I hope Virgil has an awesome time!

Good point. 4500 might have been the wrong number. But more, vaguely & metaphorically, I do believe if Andy Reid was our OC this season, he'd find a way to make lemonade with our lemons. It's not as if I have no worries about our receiving corps because I do. But I worry more about Brady. The offensive roster isn't ideal, but it has enough talent at the skill positions overall that Brady ought to be able to give us a good show.

You may disagree and I'm aware of the PFF grades, but in my estimation the OL has ranged from poor to mediocre during Josh's years. When Josh is so important to this team, he deserves a better bodyguard. Kincaid was a good addition, but outside of Diggs and Allen, in my eyes our offense has consisted mostly of jags. Our offense delivers good passing stats because we have Allen as our QB. Our offense deliver good running stats because we have Allen as our QB. Allen is the scariest runner on the team - the ball carrier defenses worry most about. The RBs often deliver decent YPCs because defenses are exclusively focused on Allen the passer and Allen the runner - not on our running backs. I agree, though, that Mahomes and Reid have had roster challenges to overcome as well.

Fair enough. A modern NFL teams runs about 60-62% of the time. I certainly wouldn't want to run more than 40% of the time when Josh Allen is the QB - except in situations like the Dallas game when the opponent is just giving up the run. I don't think McD or Brady want that either. I just want those 38% of plays that we run the ball to work. I want a good OL & blocking scheme that opens holes and backs who are dangerous. I want the opponent's defensive scheme to be more challenging & complicated than just having to stop Allen throwing intermediate-to-deep passes. If I'm being greedy, I want Brady not just to put together a good running game, I want to see a better short/timing pass game too.

We don't have an all-world receiving corps. But Shakir and Samuel are legit starters. We need one more. Between MVS, Claypool, and Coleman - there's a fair chance of them emerges as the third legit starter. And if teams do RB-by-committee, why not WR-by-committee? Andy Reid could get 4500+ yards out of this WR group. I'm hoping Brady can too.

As a guy that did want Daboll to use the run game more effectively, I want to clarify that point of view. Today's NFL is a passing league and the Bills probably won't have another QB as talented as Allen in my lifetime. There's no question that the offense needs to be built around his skills. However, I get tired of seeing 2 high shells, light boxes, and the general disrespect opponents have for our running game. I'm also concerned that we can't seem to convert 3rd and short without putting Allen at risk. I want our running game to be effective enough that other teams need to scheme for it, think about it, defend it. Having Thurman in the backfield made Kelly more effective. Having a legit run game will make Allen more effective. I don't want Josh to pass for less than 4500 yards. I want to make it easier for him to attain 4500 by having a diverse O that forces opposing teams to defend every possible playcall and every blade of grass.

They're both tremendous QBs. Both can both make jaw-dropping escapes and then deliver unbelievable throws 50 yards downfield. But Mahomes chooses the safe, high-percentage throw more often than Josh. Sometimes, especially in close games when the offense has been struggling, Josh presses. As I see it, the main difference between Josh and Pat isn't physical. It's mental. It's about decision making.

I think "parity" is something of a reality in the modern NFL. The difference between the haves and have-nots isn't as great as it used to be before free agency and the salary cap. And it's much harder to establish a dynasty now. I think the situation nowadays is that there are maybe 6 or so strong teams at the start of the team with a solid chance (around 1 in 10) of reaching the SB. The Bills are one of those teams. But KC is a unicorn. They have maybe the best offensive mind in the game paired with maybe the best QB. They've also had a great DC (Spags) for five years now who weirdly hasn't been stolen for a HC position. And they have strong FO that builds and sustains a strong overall roster. They're clearly not in that 10% crowd.

I agree... Sometimes Josh is superhuman. Sometimes he makes plays with his arm and/or legs and my jaw drops to the floor as I think, "No one else could do that!" But is that the true measure of a QB? Brady rarely made plays that other QBs couldn't make. But he was special for a long time because of his presnap reads, consistency, drive to win, ability to elevate the team around him, etc. When you put it all together, I think Mahomes is considered the best in the league for good reasons.

I'm kinda agnostic on Von. On the one hand, I read the quotes about how angry he is and how he's out to prove his critics wrong. As a Bills fan, I want to believe. On the other hand, he had recovered enough to play 12 games last year and all he could produce was 2 tackles and an assist. Over the past 6 years, he's only averaged 4.2 sacks/season. I don't bet, But if I did, I wouldn't take the over.

I'm guessing they were in a situation where they couldn't borrow the money to open the dealership without personal guarantees. Without the guarantees, the effort to buy/build the dealership would have collapsed. Hungry to make the deal happen, Pierce signed the guarantee. It's not clear to me if Peirce was the only one to sign a guarantee. There's nothing criminal or underhanded here. Just a catastrophic business failure. From the sounds of it, Pierce is screwed.

When I was young, I always heard that games were won and lost in the trenches. But I didn't care. I played WR in high school and always focused the skill postions when the Bills were on TV - especially the backs. When OJ played, he commanded the totality of my attention. But over the decades I've seen too many offenses falter because they couldn't protect the QB and/or open holes for the RB. Now I pound the table a lot about OLs. And I've been concerned for a long time that Beane has been neglecting it. But, for maybe the first time during Beane's tenure, I'm not especially worried. I'm starting to think this just might, perhaps by a small margin, be the best OL in front of Josh yet.

Gunner, this is a great recap and analysis. Thanks. One of the things that makes KC special is the three-part marriage of Reid, Spags, and Mahomes. A top offensive mind paired with a top defensive mind for the past 5 years. They've been very fortunate that Spags hasn't found a HC gig. On the field, the offense is led by one of the best QBs in history. The Bills have been one of the league's top teams for the past four years. But I don't think McD is quite as good a defensive head coach as Reid is an offensive head coach. I don't think our group of OCs have been as nearly as good as Reid's DC. And Josh isn't quite as good as Mahomes. Our Big Three just isn't as good as theirs. Frustatingly, they have the best Big Three in the league.

I agree that KC's "elite" coaching staff being better than ours. But I do think McD was dealing with more than having to "start a couple backups." The best players at all three levels our defense were missing (or might have well as been). * Von was still recovering, didn't start, and didn't play well * Milano was out. * Tre White was out. Additionally, if I recall correctly: * Rapp was out * Benford was out. * Spector was out * Bernard was out * Douglas played with a gimpy knee My memory might be a little hazy, but I think I saw Micah Hyde was on the field with crutches at one point. At another point, McD asked a guy in the stands to suit up. Playing against the world's best football team, we had no business being in that game as bandaged and banged up as we were. A team has only so many playmakers and all of our defensive stars were hurt. And if Diggs doesn't atypically drop a critical pass, or if Bassomatic doesn't atypically miss a 44 yarder, it could have been a great upset win for us. It's hard to blame McD for either of those errors. Imagine how the game might have unfolded if all those guys were fully healthy. It would be like going to war with jets, tanks, and drones instead of bows and arrows and AJ Klein.

HappyDays, do you believe that when we've faced KC in the playoffs we trotted out better players? No matter how either of us answer that question, and I suspect we'd answer differently, I do think KC has better coaches. I think they have the best coaches in the league. Both their offense and defense are very coached well. But as excellent as their roster and coaching staff is, we tend to outplay them in the regular season. McD is 3-1 against Reid - despite Reid's excellent staff and players - in the regular season since 2020. McD must have some talent as a coach. KC tends to barely beat us in the playoffs. Two years ago, the playoff game went to OT. Last season we lost because of a missed Bassomatic FG. Both games could have gone either way. These two teams are pretty evenly matched. It's not an utter failure to be very nearly on par with the best team in the league. If we were an NFC team, we'd be losing to them in the SB rather than the AFC playoffs. So how do we get over the hump? We could fire McD. We could fire Beane. We could fire both. Or we could give them time to make the Bills just a little bit better - enough to raise up a trophy.

You may be right. But I'm still not ready to kick McD to the curb (I still believe he can win a SB) and I worry about the new voice. Now if Reid decided forswear the dark side and come to Buffalo, I'd be onboard. But McD, while imperfect, is better than most coaches in the pro and college ranks. So the probability is high that the new voice would be a worse voice, not a better one.

You're right, the Vegas thing means nothing. I'm not sure about McD getting an "A" from the players just because he's a nice guy. It does seems like he has good values and priorities. But he's not the warm and fuzzy type. He doesn't get weepy in pressers like Dick Vermeil did. He's a bit of a cold fish, actually. The take about the Bills winning because McD's good DC and we have Josh on offense is fair and I can absolutely see why you feel that way. Only 1 out of 4 of our OCs have been any good and even Daboll had some issues. The success of our offense has been largely fueled by Josh, not by superior offensive schemes. But I do believe that McD has added value to the offense with the teamwork and comaraderie that he's able to build and his methodical approach to preparation. Still, I'll offer this: If the offense struggles because McD once again hired the wrong guy to run it, I'll help you buy McD a bus ticket out of town.

I've asked myself if McD is Marty Shottenheimer. But Lewis - yikes - that's a harsh comparison! Lewis is barely a career .500 coach who went 0-7 in the playoffs. McD atleast wins roughly half of his playoff games. One thing I wonder about is if coaching in the playoffs is any different than coaching in the regular season. Are there guys who coach better in the playoffs than in the regular season? Are there guys who coach worse? The answer is probably "yes" to some degree but I have trouble seeing it. I think most coaches have more or less the same practice field sessions during the playoffs, the same position group film reviews and meetings, the same game planning process, etc. And I think McD is a good enough at this stuff that with Josh as his QB and some other healthy, talented players, he can win it all. I really want you to be wrong, too. Only time will tell.

I agree with this. I think there have been times in the regular season that McD overperformed. For whatever reason, I can't say that about the postseason.