uncle flap

Well, there were plenty of question marks there... I thought I might not be understanding the connection, so I asked for some clarification. Maybe you're referring to their personal lives? You know Stevie is happily married with children and there's nothing controversial about his business and endorsement deals, right? Meanwhile TO is alone, broke, and suspected of having drug problems... so yeah, that'd suck for Stevie if things turn out that way, but I don't see it happening. At a glance, Stevie seems confident, even a little cocky. TO seems like a certifiable egomaniac. So are you saying that Stevie could find himself alienating himself from his loved ones and blowing all his money by the end of his career because he likes to have fun and doesn't take his job as seriously as you'd like him to? If I still don't understand, please enlighten me.

A 6 time Pro Bowler, future HOFer? Nah that'd be terrible!! Who would want to be that??! You do mean Terrell Owens, right? Or was that some other TO?

What's wrong with that? The picture of his face is weird but I'm a teacher and I made a motivational poster with the same message: 1. Know where you're at 2. Know where you're supposed to be 3. DO YOUR JOB I cribbed it from a high school football coach / teacher a while ago and I can't remember who it was. It may have been originally cribbed form Sean Payton idk. But it is applicable in the classroom as well as on the field, and I like to refer to it when kids are acting up or slacking- Asking them what they're doing vs what they should be doing, etc. I think it sends the same message Marrone is putting out there: If you're "doing your job," the results should take care of themselves. Basically saying "I tried" is not good enough. Because if there's no results to back it up, you obviously didn't try hard enough (and aren't doing your job). PS No need to comment on the "teacher using poor grammar" angle- I'm not using the motivational poster as an instructional aid. It comes across much better than "Consider your current actions in relation to what you are trying to achieve, and reorient yourself toward your goals." These are inner city junior high students They're trying to sign Urlacher, duh.

Great post! I agree with all of the reasoning and hope that the #8 pick yields and impact defender. I'd like to add another thing to consider re: the consensus top 5 or 6; As Bills fans, we all know that bad teams tend to make bad decisions. Teams with top draft positions "earned" those positions. They're there for a reason. So, while I agree that there's a fairly clear cut group of top prospects, there is a very real possibility that one or more of the teams ahead of the Bills "outsmarts" everyone else and takes a player that isn't the expected "no brainer." Maybe it's not likely, but it is definitely possible that one of those guys that should be gone won't be. My hope is that Dion Jordan falls into the Bills's lap, but of course that'd be too good to be true. If it indeed plays out as the OP suggests, I'd take Mingo, Jarvis Jones, Ogletree, or Ansah - whomever Pettine likes best.

Wouldn't mind anybody already mentioned but my top three in no particular order are DHB, Brandon Tate, and Chaz Schilens. The WR situation is such that first and foremost, they need bodies to compete. These guys or basically anyone out there isn't guaranteed to be any better than TJ Graham and Brad Smith. Considering the QB situation, if they were to make a splash in FA with one of the bigger names that are now gone, the cost/benefit ratio would almost certainly be a net loss. I think it's a much better idea to simply add some cheap depth and hope someone steps up. Plus, there are a TON of WRs with star potential in this draft IMO. I think they can get a guy in the 3rd that'll probably be much better in the long run than anybody currently available FA. It's not that far fetched to say the Bills could have their choice of Terrance Williams, Justin Hunter, or Da'Rick Rogers in the 3rd.

Some of those scenes seem fake- Idk if it's because of how the videos were edited into one, but the fidelity of some of the sounds don't seem to match with the rest of the sounds coming form the videos. I do a little bit of amateur audio engineering for my bad, so I guess I have an ear for when sounds seem out of sync with the rest of the environment. Then again some phones/cameras have all sorts of noise reducing/filtering features, so that could be it too. Of course, if they are some sort of supernatural or extreme natural phenomena I guess that would explain why it "doesn't sound right."

Nah Buddy is currently negotiating with Tombstone Tackle to take over Sheppard's spot

Disagree. He wasn't all that bad when he's been in, the real issue is the injury troubles. Not saying he's destined for stardom or anything, but I seem to recall him showing some good potential for a small school product with seemingly subpar coaching thus far. He's even in a highlight on NFL.com! http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/09000d5d81b32b83/Davis-INT

Eerie! Here's some more reading on the Bloop and some other mysterious underwater sounds: http://io9.com/5883622/meet-the-bloop-the-mysterious-sound-from-the-bottom-of-the-pacific-ocean

Wait! NO! We need ARMS! Why not kick the tires on these guys?

Agreed. I also hope that whomever he is is already considered "tough," because I think it could be a step backward if it was a kicker for example. I wouldn't want that to reinforce any stereotypes along the lines of "yeah, you can be a gay NFL player... but still a sissy one," or something like that. Maybe that's shallow to say, but I think it reflects the reality of the situation. That would be amazing. What better way to combat the ostracization (real or perceived) by being one of many, not just a "token" gay player.

I just posted this an another thread, then I read this one with the exact scenario the OP posited: However, to truly answer the OP's question I'd pretty much answer the same way Whitewalker Merriman did. If it were up to me, I'd most likely take a "surer" thing in one of the stud defenders (Dion Jordan is my first choice), and hope for the best in the later rounds. Without the knowledge of the coaching staff and scouts, I don't know how they see Manuel fitting in, but he's the most intriguing QB to me. As I said in another thread, every QB has question marks, but Manuel has all the measure-ables I want in a QB.

I don't think the roster is as bad as many around here do. To get to the next tier of teams - that would be those that push for division titles and making noise in the playoffs- they don't need bodies, they need stars. That said, I really don't think they should trade back if Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo, or Dee Miliner is/are on the board. I'd even take Jarvis Jones at #8 and possibly a few others. If they could swing trading back, but only a few slots so that they could pick up one of these defensive studs, I'd be ok with that. But if the purpose is solely to get more picks, no thanks. I think this team would be better of with one "A" player than two "B" or "C" players. EDIT: I took out the QB stuff that fits another thread's premise precisely

GIT ER DONE!!!!!!!!!!!!

I've been dropping this article in the various threads speculating on what the D will look like: http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2013/02/breaking-down-mike-pettine-part-2/ It's really informative re: what Pettine has run in the past. I don't totally agree with the author as far as where guys will fit, but he definitely sets a good baseline form which to start. It was written a few weeks ago, so you can start by subbing Mark Anderson (not sure why he's snubbed here) and/or Manny Lawson in places you see Merriman and/or Moore (whom I'm not sure they'll re-sign). Now I know Pettine has said himself that with the Bills, it will be about adjusting schemes to the personell, so maybe we can't read too much into what he's done previously. But what you see in the article is that Pettine's 3-4 over (and under) looks a lot like a 4-6 when they're lined up. The only difference is one of the LB spots is going to be a safety, and another will be a coverage LB like Bryan Scott (who would basically be a tweener safety/DB/LB). Anyway, I think the linked article is a great read and sheds a lot of light on what we can expect the D to look like going forward. One thing the author harps on and that I totally agree with is that they could use some LB help in a big way, which is why I'd love to see Dion Jordan taken with the Bills first pick.

I think I "get" all of this, but since the money rolled over from last year to this year doesn't roll over to next year- How much of that has been spent, and how much should they spend so they don't just lose it? McKelvin's hit was $3mil but he was re-signed before the new league year, so does that not count as rollover money? Lawson's is $2.4 but that was after. I assume the ~$5 mil for rookies will be a part of that $10 mil rolled over from last year. So basically, if I'm understanding this correctly, it looks like the Bills have ~$3 mil in space to use or they lose it. Does anyone have any idea how the "rollover" money is designated? In the Bills case, is it just the first $10 mil they spend? And from when to when is rollover money in effect?

Ah- too slow w my reply! But back to those WRs, they are all cheap and if your preference is to have them instead of Brad Smith, I can't argue with your opinion. My point is that we can all find a ton of cheap guys to fill the roster holes, and I think it's understood that while the Bills aren't working with the $50 mil Cleveland started with, they still have adequate space to sign plenty of players. I guess my criticism of the OP is that using Brad Smith's cap hit as a justification to cut him is somewhat misguided. They've got enough cap space either way. So like I said, if someone wants to cut Brad Smith because they think he sucks, that's fine. I just don't think his cap hit has anything to do with it. I'd keep Brad Smith and add a WR (or two, if they don't draft one). I like any of the guys the OP listed, and I'd also take a look at DHB, Chaz Schilens, and Brandon Tate. Man, I'm slippin today. I forgot to add this to my above post re: rolling over cap space: http://www.spotrac.com/terms/nfl/can-a-team-carry-excessunused-cap-space-into-the-next-year-295/

I think it only the top 51 contracts count, but we should also consider that any unused cap space* will roll over to next year. So, they certainly might be looking at who might be available next year and who they want to re-sign. cough Eric Wood cough *Quote Can a team carry excess/unused cap space into the next year? Yes. Unused cap space from a team’s previous year cap can be added to the following year. The team must notify the league of their intent to rollover cap money at least 14 days prior to the start of the next season’s league year. Does it continue to rollover like cellphone minutes? No. Rollover money from 2012 into 2013 is treated as “adjusted cap”. Any unused “adjusted” money in 2013 cannot be rolled over again into 2014. http://www.spotrac.c...-next-year-295/ All/any of those guys could certainly bolster the WR corps, but none of them are going to break the bank. So Brad Smith's hit is pretty inconsequential.

That chart hasn't been updated to reflect Fitz's nearly 7 mil rollover to next year. So it's more like $23 mil. Or $18 mil if you include the rookies that'll have to be signed. Also, Byrd hasn't signed his tender. That could mean they are negotiating a long term deal and his cap hit could change too. Not to pile on, but I'm also curious who is out there (WR and otherwise), that Brad Smith's cap hit is preventing them from signing. Granted we don't know who would be the best fits in the coach's/management's eyes, but if you were building the team - How would you spend the money? And for fun's sake, go ahead and use the $4M you save from cutting Brad Smith. You've got $22 million to play with, have at it!

All of the above but most of all this! Horribly used IMO. 1. I am a fan of the WIldcat but Chan used it all wrong. Wrong timing, and more importantly, did not use it enough. Yes, I know that sounds crazy. But if you're going to use it at all, you need to use it often enough and with enough variety, that plays out of the Wildcat formation set up other Wildcat plays. Like the QB read option this past year. Most of the time it's going to look similar and not break a big one. But when that pattern is broken is when you see the big gains. Sure it may happen on any given play, but when you only run it 1-3 times a game, you're not maximizing its potential. Which leads to my next point; 2. Scrap the Wildcat completely, and work out BS at WR exclusively. He may not be destined to be a #1 or #2 receiver, but he will be more polished at that position, rather than taking snaps as an emergency QB. I'd like to see him used similar to Percy Harvin has been. Get him the ball in space - swing passes, reverses, WR screens, and slants/hitches against corners playing off the line. Try to emulate a kick/punt return while on offense. Again, not saying he'll suddenly become a superstar, but I think he has some unique value in this regard. And I won't automatically write him off as a traditional WR. With the proper preparation, I don't see why he couldn't become a "normal" WR. Remember, every time we've seen him as a WR for Buffalo, he'd been pressed into that role due to injuries. If I'm not mistaken, he hasn't had an assignment as a true WR since his rookie year, which wasn't that bad. 32 catches for 325 yds in 9 games started with 2 TDs. That's as the 3rd option behind Laveraneus Coles and Jericho Cotchery with Kellen Clemens throwing him the ball. So again- not a *huge* fan, but he's definitely talented and I think he deserves a shot with a new coach. And I also think if used correctly, he can win some of you guys over.

My buddy pointed out that the opener is released before the entire schedule. Last year it was March 27. Maybe Baltimore is playing an away game bc of the Orioles conflict and they're shuffling off to Buffalo.

I am too, but it's not worth arguing over

Well, as I understand the cap rules, they can roll over their unallocated cap space to the following year. From last year to this one, they rolled over almost $10 mil, despite the spending spree. So, if they know that they aren't going to spend right up to the cap this year, that space will still be there next year. Basically, if they don't use that $7 mil this year, they still have it to effectively wash the hit next year. All in all, it doesn't seem to hurt them any more or less by pushing the bigger hit to next year. If anything, it gives them more wiggle room this year, if they want to use it. And like I said, if they don't use it this year, it doesn't disappear, they can still use that space next year to eat the rest of Fitz's cap hit. Another way to think of it is a no-interest loan; Why pay it back before you have to if you *might* want to use your available money before hand? They don't have anything to gain by paying it back early if you use that analogy.

Not at all! I enjoyed reading it and I agree with everything you say. I don't mean any offense, I just don't think there is much value to analyzing the success rate of scouts/GMs as a whole - except in terms of draft pick value a la Jimmy Johnson's chart. Again, not to sound like a jerk, but it just doesn't much interest me to know that a QB drafted at #8 has X% chance to succeed based on all the previous QBs that have been drafted in or near that slot. Only because because that percentage has no bearing on a particular player's chance of success. While it'd be misleading to say I'm not interested in descriptive stats, since I find that stuff interesting too, but what I'm really interested in is predictive stats. It just sucks because as I said earlier, there doesn't seem to be a reliable model, and it's not for lack of trying or data. I look forward to reading some more of your analyses and I'll def stay on the lookout for them!

For those of you saying you'd take Geno, consider this: Would you rather have Jordan/Mingo/Jones (one should be there at #8) and Manuel/Nassib/Wilson/Glennon/Bray/any QB not named Geno or Barkely? Or Geno Smith and... Sam Montgomery? Alex Okafor? Manti Te'o? I submit the D needs an impact player. Not more than the O needs a QB, of course, but I'd say the drop off from the 1st rd LBs to the 2nd rd LBs is far more vast than it is for 1st to 2nd rd QBs. That said, I've been mulling it over, and below is my stab at who I think the Bills should draft. Now, obviously the following "mock" will never happen bc things never work out this well for Buffalo but here's what I *think* would be the best possible draft: 1. Dion Jordan - probably won't slip to us, but I think he's the type of dynamic player Pettine's defense needs. Seems like he can do it all but most importantly can bring the heat. 2. EJ Manuel - I know a bunch of you think he's a bum, but I think he's got the most upside out of the guys likely available in the second. They have to roll the dice. There's question marks about all the QBs, but he's got all the measureables I want. 3. WR- There are so many that one of these guys will slip and I'd take any of these three in this order (although I could be convinced to alter the order): Terrance Williams, Justin Hunter, or Da'Rick Rogers. All have the potential to be stars. Da'Rick Rogers had off-field issues but seems to have turned it around. 4. Nico Johnson ILB from Bama - dude seems to be the downhill thumper they need in the middle. Then again, I thought that about Kelvin Sheppard too. Most likely not an every down LB, or at least won't be asked to man cover, which is reflected by his draft position. 5. I have no idea. If there's a pass catching TE out there, I'd go for it. Otherwise, I'd take a DB. Jordan Reed is a TE I'd take a flyer on but most likely won't be there. 6. See 5. OK BOYS HAVE AT IT