No Cease Fires

Regardless of how you feel about his opinions, it's an interesting piece on how best to use Allen. The first of its kind I've seen.

Was just about to post this. Great article, and I too hope the Bills embrace the boom-or-bust quality of Allen's game.

You'd think people would be proud of Buffalo having the first female president in the NFL but...nope. "She slept with the boss."

I saw a lot more late throws in 2016. But yeah he definitely could step into them a bit more in 2016.

I think the 2017 tapes show better mechanics actually.

Yep. This is what I've been saying. The results weren't there for him in 2017 but his mechanics were markedly improved. Fewer late throws, better timing.

How exactly do you measure success, though? Allen was a winner at Wyoming. Where he struggled was his completion percentage. It seems weird to me that if he would have completed just 3 more passes per game, this pick would be seen far more favorably.

Here's the thing about his accuracy: you can't throw out his drops because that 60 percent or whatever acceptability level has drops accounted for. So then you're looking at more of a 63 to 65 percent accuracy benchmark and naturally Allen fails to meet that. However, you can watch his tape (I like 2017, his worst statistical season) and see a guy running for his life behind a turnstile line on many many plays. A guy who, when he has time and protection, is accurate almost all the time. A guy who had running backs averaging 3 YPC. A guy who played in a program that favored a pro-style passing game with lots of downfield action and few screens. You can see a QB who actually CAN hit swing passes with good ball placement, who DOES use touch on his throws with proficiency. So, I mean, keep the drops because everyone has them. I see a QB who can hit all the throws but needs to do so with consistency. And I do think that if he can get his footwork improved, he will find that consistency. There have already been indications that he's a fast learner so here's hoping.

I think maybe FO should actually watch some of Allen's 2017 starts. He wasn't carrying the team. He WAS the team. No running game except what he generated. Bare minimum of an offensive line. And his mechanics were improved over 2016 despite the poor stats.

My prediction is: Darnold will sit. Mayfield, Rosen, and Allen will start.

Allen might benefit from sitting but he might benefit from live bullets, too. He's a tough, smart kid and if a rough start ruins his entire career then maybe he was never going to be anything anyway. If McCarron beats him out for the job, great, but I don't want the Bills to be TOO conservative with handling their first rounder.

I thank that unless Allen is terrible in camp he's going to win the job outright. It doesn't make much sense to sit him just for the sake of sitting him. If he shows he's better than the rest of the crop (which he will) then start him.

I think the big difference there is the Chiefs had a franchise-quality QB in Smith. Not the case in Buffalo.

Fair enough. I wasn't comparing him to anyone else, though. Just saying that from watching the games he seemed pretty on the mark with his intermediate throws. And 60 percent ain't bad. Also, he was throwing deep a lot. Like a lot a lot. So it's understandable that the actual percentage of those completions was low.

On the one hand, I hope this happens, and Allen gets much needed development time. On the other, I hope Allen blows everyone away and wins the job outright. I hope we don't get a case of both struggling and AJ gets the job by default.

Does anyone actually believe that Allen WON'T beat out AJ in camp? Unless they make a concerted effort to sit him out, the job is Josh's to lose.

I hated this pick as much as anyone. But I suggest that people just watch a random game of Allen's and see what they think. Because he is not the guy I was expecting based on all the inaccuracy talk. Yes, he misses some easy throws. But he's mostly money on intermediate to long throws. And they're not all fastballs! That's the other thing that was drilled into my head about this guy: no touch or arc to any of his throws. Again, not true. At times he throws it too hard, yes, but not all the time. I guess I was expecting a guy who can't hit the broadside of the barn on tape but misses with great velocity. And again that's just not true. I don't know, I got so worked up over his inaccuracy that I was expecting his tape to be an absolute disaster. I'm sure there are others here like me who have the same perception. So all I can say is: watch some random games. Might help you chill out a bit. I know it did me. I saw a guy who was running for his life and throwing seeds on the move, and who, when he had time, was pretty accurate. I know, I'm shocked too. To me the best sign is that 2017 was his off year but to my eyes his mechanics improved from the year prior. Better timing, fewer late throws. Yes, there's always a couple throws per game that really make me facepalm, but then he'll hit on a couple throws that I see very few other QBs completing. I still have my doubts, the bust potential is there, but he was hardly a trainwreck, and with his smarts I could see him learning to be a pretty good QB. I'll say it, damn it: I'm excited to see what Josh Allen can do.

There were some drops to be sure. There was also a dropped pick-six going the other way. All in all, he didn't look as bad as his stat line showed.

Bingo.

I wasn't insulting anyone. I explained my reasoning.

Tools, yes. But he hasn't shown he knows what to do with them. Kinda like some other Bills QB picks I don't need to mention. Look, I really hope he's a star, and of course there's a chance he will be. But looking at the history of college QBs with less than 60 percent accuracy, those chances aren't good. That's the truth. So if I were a betting man, I would bet on him to bust. And that's just playing the percentages. The only way I would bet on him to be a star is if I had a whole ton of faith in a regime that has given me no reason to have said faith when it comes to the QB position. Hence the Kool-aid.

Accuracy accuracy accuracy accuracy. He needs to get a lot more accurate and that's something that's demonstrably hard to learn.

I'm not saying he won't turn out to be a star, I hope he does. But to predict that TODAY when every conceivable metric says nuh-uh, well, you're riding on faith and little else.

To be honest, I've been running this all over and over in my head as a doomsday scenario for the last few months. We're in the prime position and tank the pick. "Josh(the crowd goes wild)...Allen (crickets)"

Tim Graham claimed it was Allen seconds before the pick was announced so I was prepared for the devastation.