section122
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Posts posted by section122
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Chiefs
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Random that you need filled.
Im on vacation at a waterpark w the family so ill help however i can but its gonna be tough lol
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
I love stump the truck. There might only be about a dozen people still watching the draft by the dog days of round 7..... but I love it. You stumped me anyway. Not a guy I'd ever heard of.
I only stumbled on him when I was looking up advanced stats on wrs.
He compares to puka nacua and i think we are going to see a little bit of the josh allen effect with nacua.
I saw it at the combine when they brought up him excelling in the gauntlet and all of a sudden this year the gauntlet was a very important event.
Another thing that stuck out to me is how much I take fbs and nfl production values for granted lol.
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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
He feels like the kind of guy you could throw out there in NFL Network's Stump The Truck segment. Haha.
Hey i found one on youtube! Lol
He got pffs 5th highest season score. They probably don't need a highlight cut bc he won't be drafted but he dominated the fcs competition which is important imo if you are going to make the jump to the pros.
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Hayden Hatten
https://nfldraftdiamonds.com/2023/07/hayden-hatten-2/
Another guy like Franklin that analytics love. Big x and can be had very late. Would love one of the late round dart throws to be on this guy.
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14 hours ago, HappyDays said:
I've seen a couple of times that Penix is a guy who will likely go in the first round after the first 4 guys are off the board. Seahawks were mentioned along with the Raiders and Vikings (if they can't trade up).
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8 hours ago, Beck Water said:
I think that's one reason why the draft, even the top of the first round where the physical talent is undoubtedly elite, tends to be such a crap shoot. You can watch their film and measure their vertical leap, but not their heart or how hard they continue to work once paid.
There was a really interesting conversation on Sirius the other day about how the NIL deals are making kids stay in school longer and causing some issues with transferring and competition however the huge benefit for the NFL is teams now get to see how kids react to getting paid. It's a huge piece that they also had to wonder about but now they have real actionable information. Does the player still work as hard, does he still put in the effort on training, or does he rest on his laurels and not try as hard. It used to be making it to the NFL was when you got life changing money. Now kids are getting it as Freshman and teams get a few years of data. They mentioned that it helps teams know who has the drive or plays for the love of the game as opposed to just playing for the paycheck.
8 hours ago, Beck Water said:OK, fair, I misunderstood - but I thought you were arguing for drafting up? The reason I misunderstood is that it doesn't make sense to me to argue for drafting up, by including a guy we both tag as a success who would be drafted by standing pat or trading BACK. How and why does that support your argument for trading up?
I don't know...my guess is "not" but I think your top-3 success rate would also decrease. Ultimately, while I appreciate and applaud the work you put in, honest comment I feel choosing "top 3 WR" (when they're drafted at different pick numbers year to year) is a bit problematic. People, including myself and organizations like PFF, have tried to look at success rates by criteria like "top 10 picks" or "top half of the first" or "first" - some of it is in other threads on this board right now.
The point is that while drafting, teams can't predict who the top 3 guys at a position will be, they can only make an educated guess about how early they need to draft to get a particular player.The bottom line is that the best success for any position is usually in the top half of the 1st round - something like 50%. Overall, in the first round, it's 30% and usually not much lower in the top 10 picks of the 2nd round. The second round as a whole stays pretty high, 20-25%. Third round something like 15-20%, then it plummets.
Let me rummage a bit and I'll put a link to some of the recent stuff people have posted about WR success by draft round here....Um, yes, you did include Ruggs as a "hit" when you brought up that the success would be 80% for a trade-up if you just included him - " If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%... think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft???"
My point is that if you include one hypothetical to claim a hypothetical marvelous 80% hit rate, you open a can of worms where other hypotheticals can enter the fray. And um, I'm not sure where you get the notion I'm upset.
Not following you on the QB comment, but that's a nit.
.....looping back to link some of the recent postshttps://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/254036-how-to-pick-a-top-wr/#comment-9016893
looked at top receivers for the last 3 seasons and where they were drafted.
39% of them from 1st round, equal split between top and bottom half of the 1st round
25% of them from 2nd round
21% from 3rd roundI'm not looking at "how many receivers were drafted where, and what % succeeded? I'm looking at "successful WR, where did they draft?"
Here's one by Rigotz
https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/254044-1st-vs-2nd-round-wr-hit-rate/#comment-9017898
He goes back 9 years but omits the 22 and 23 draft as too recent for good data...you'll like his conclusion11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).
6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).
[So he would support you, don't trade back]
Here's one where I was looking at the most successful players in each draft, vs draft orderJust some different ways of approaching the same problem. Hope it's of interest.
I posted earlier in the thread:
Instead of using the whole 2nd round, I used the top 7 wrs in each draft. I think it is very reasonable that the Bills will get their choice of at least a top 7 wr barring a historical never before seen run on wrs. The success numbers are actually better than his numbers for trading up. @transplantbillsfan didn't respond to it though I would be interested to hear what he has to say.
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4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
So give us some historically deep draft classes. I feel like you're using some revisionist history here so I'll call your bluff. The 2021 and 2020 classes were also considered deep.
Just look back at some of the narrative from the 2021 class alone:
Excerpt from The Athletic regarding the 2021 top 20 WRs in the class:
The volume of talent at receiver rivals last year’s, which set a record with 13 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. I don’t think this year’s group will break that mark. But I do believe this class will have more receivers drafted in the top three rounds than last year’s class (15).
From PFF regarding the 2021 class:
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase
The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available.
Sound familiar?
I can spin your numbers differently though to favor staying put or trading back using the same data.
As 20 and 21 are the comparable deep drafts:
2020 - Had a ridiculous 5 of the first 8 receivers drafted be a hit. Furthermore, the hits were drafted 3,5,6,7,8. The busts were 1,2, and 4. This data wouls say there is room to either stay put or trade back and still get a quality wr.
2021 - 5 of the first 7 were hits. The hits were 1,2,3,6, and 7. The misses were 4 and 5. This would say you could stay put and still have a 5/7 chance to get a good wr unless you think 7 wrs will go before 28 this year.
I wont ignore your other data but itll be briefer.
2019 the 2 1st round guys were busts and the only 2 hits were taken in the 2nd round. Would support a trade back or stay put.
2022 - i think jameson williams will break out this year but for now I wont count him. 4 of the first 7 were hits. This year would support trading up maybe but watson was a hit in the 2nd round so we could have hung tight if our scouting is to be trusted.
2023 - way to early to make any sort of calls on these guys. Even using your thought though 4 out of 7 guys hit.
So unless you think 7 guys will go before 28 the Bills have a 20 out of 31 chance to pick an impact wr or a 65% chance. Or with your addition of jsn and Johnston it goes to 71% or adding ruggs 74%. Better odds without the hypotheticals and less odds without them because the actual info has more data points.
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He quit on the bears. I never want a player like that on the Bills.
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1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:
I dont disagree that he might try to get up there but I think it will be difficult to get up there. Really the teams that would be willing to trade are maybe Atlanta, Chicago(if they don't want Odunze themselves), Tennessee(looking OT and can still get one at 28) and maybe if Odunze slips to 12 Denver is in play. Those seem like really the only options.
I also think there is a good possibility that Arizona trades down but with NYG instead of Minnesota so they can grab another premium pick while still getting Nabers or Odunze at 6. I just see it as an unlikely road not impossible but unlikely. I would love Odunze as I have him as my # 2 WR.
I was and am still on the McConkey train for the Bills as well. I just have a huge gut feeling that the pick is going to be Keon Coleman. The more I think about it the more he fits their model of person and he is different than what they have in the room.
He does a lot of things the Bills would love. He's a hard worker, hes a great teammate, he's a leader in the Florida State locker room, he's a big WR that they don't have, he goes out of his way to block instead of just standing there. Those are the little things the Bills love. His greatest strength is YAC ability, something the Bills have struggled with and continue to struggle with so hopefully he would mitigate that issue. On top of that Keon Coleman is 20 years old and there is a lot of evidence that the Bills love taking younger players with their first round picks and Coleman definitely fits that mold as he'll be 21 years old when the season starts. He could be another interchangeable part for the Bills playing inside and outside the numbers and he is a good athlete as he played both D1 Basketball and Football.
This doesn't include the fact that the Bills met with him at the Combine and then brought him in for a 30 visit as well. He's not my # 1 choice and maybe I'm looking too much into it but Coleman checks a lot of the Bills character and player arch boxes.
When the season ended and I started to looking at receivers I came upon a comp of keon coleman as kelvin benjamin. Beane was in Carolina when he was drafted at pick.... 28.
There are so many guys I'll be ok with the Bills drafting and Coleman is one of them. His one handed catch against cuse was a thing of beauty. He would be a big bodied red zone threat and he excels at the most important thing for a wr. He catches the ball.
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1 hour ago, SWATeam said:
I know the Bears are light on picks but I can't see them passing up the opportunity to pair a #1 WR with their rookie QB
They do have Keenan Allen and DJ Moore along with Cole Kmet. Add in that they have Swift at RB and I think they have pretty good weapons already.
2 hours ago, DJB said:Other than Harrison and Odunze, Ladd McConkey as the safest WR to draft .
At minimum you have a high end slot guy with good work ethic, character, ability to separate and hands.
If he’s able to work as an outside guy then you will have hit a home run.
Would you say he brings his lunch pail to work? A real first in last out kind of guy? Maybe he's scrappy and sneaky athletic? A real gamer? Plays the game the right way?
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Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State - Cardinals
Rome Odunze, Washington - Bears
Ladd McConkey, Georgia - Chiefs
Brian Thomas Jr., LSU - Jaguars
Xavier Worthy Texas- Bills
Bonus Bills pick - worthy
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1 hour ago, 947 said:
I don't see Worthy as having a high floor at all. His floor is John Ross, which is a complete and utter bust & useless as an NFL player. He's a very risky player.
I think McConkey's floor is a decent NFL player, that's the definition of a high floor.
How do you land on that? Because both Ross and Worthy run fast?
I like both players before I go into this but here is some comparisons and why I like Worthy more:
McConkey had 1 game with 7 catches, 2 games with 6 catches, and 7 games with 5 catches. In his career! He had 9 games with 1 catch.
Worthy had 5 games with 6 or more catches just last year. He had 2 games in his career with 1 catch.
McConkey's best year was 58 catches 762 yards and 7 tds.
Worthy's worst year was 60 catches, 760 yards, and 9 tds. (he did have a year with 5 tds but that came along with 75 catches for 1014 yards)
Admittedly McConkey did miss a chunk of time with injury last year which affected his stats but also he missed some time with knee back and ankle injuries through his career. In my mind that is a strike against him.
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28 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:
I considered him and a WR hard for GB, but need won out there.
I was going to send a trade request to you to try and dissuade you but ultimately didn't want to hold up the draft.
14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:And I nearly took him too. If I was the GM of the Lions for real I'd move Brian Branch to safety full time and take Lassiter and if he plays mainly nickel as a rookie with Carlton Davis and my 1st round pick Kool-Aid outside then so be it. But these things are always a balance between what you would do and something you think it is realistic for the team to do and I don't get any sense they have an appetite to move Branch who they basically used in the Nick Saban "star" role he played in college last year. So I went with my next guy.
I almost "accidently" posted my pick before yours to try and dissuade you but that would have been dirty pool lol. I knew from the first mock you liked Lassiter a lot and I think the value is there for the Lions to double dip so I was more than a little worried you would do just that.
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@NewEra and the 49ers are on the clock.
I thought about trying to trade up as I was nervous the last 2 teams might take this guy but they had already selected a CB so I held tight and it paid off.
With the 62nd pick the Ravens select Kamari Lassiter CB UGA.
From a Ravens fan site: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/03/28/ravens-draft-central/defensive-back-prospects/kamari-lassiter/
Lassiter is an excellent fit with the Ravens on many different fronts. He looks like a Raven with the way he plays the run from the CB position, with an excellent trigger and aggression as well as making form tackles on even bigger ball carriers. He also flies to the football on WR screens. He is intelligent and it keeps him in phase on most type of routes and he has inside out versatility. Georgia deployed him in the slot when facing dangerous weapons there. I don’t think he’s quite as athletic as the Ravens like but that won’t stop them from pulling the trigger on him, I think. The versatility seals it for me as he would enter the CB rotation with Stephens and Humphrey quickly.
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Thanks @GunnerBill and @DCOrange!
Now I have to go back and watch them all again lol. I am trying hard not to have favorites as they inevitably won't end up on the Bills but I have watched so much on these guys it is near impossible!
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5 minutes ago, LEBills said:
I do have Mitchell a little higher because I think his floor is a good possession receiver as he is a good route runner. If he can tap into his athleticism his ceiling is pretty high though watching him run after the catch is painful and something I think is instinctual and may be hard for him to improve.Worthy is pretty inconsistent with his hands and routes but his highs are very high. Though I like him overall, I think he has a higher chance of being a straight bust.
To your bolded, that is actually why I am so high on Worthy. You can see that he understands how to set up defenders to miss in the open field. Since he has that tool already, that should really help his route running improve and make him a success in the league. Strangely though there are several instances of him getting caught from behind that surprised me.
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Just now, DCOrange said:
We'll see where Harmon ultimately lands on him, but I'll be pretty surprised if he's outside his top 10. It seemed that the OP was saying we shouldn't trust Harmon because he's outside of his top 10 when we don't actually know where he is since he hasn't finished scouting him yet.
Personally, I think if you're just looking for someone to be a deep threat and open things up underneath, there's probably a lot of better options than Franklin. The allure with Franklin is that he isn't just a deep threat; most of his targets came closer to the LOS and he was generally very productive on those while still offering some deep ball upside. If you think his physical issues will prevent that part of his game from translating to the pros, I wouldn't bother taking him where he's likely to be drafted. I like him; he's on the late 1st/early 2nd fringe for me.
The stat of a 30 yard catch in 13 of 14 games is mind boggling to me. Teams had to be game planning to stop that and still couldn't. Add in how much analytics love him and he is another guy I think I am higher on than the consensus.
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29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Yea it does for me. I mean I have them right together on my board Mitchell is only just ahead and it comes down to the ease with which you can project each to be a #1 in the NFL. That's an easier projection for Mitchell than it is for Worthy because of the size.
17 minutes ago, DCOrange said:I think the size, athleticism, and skills give AD a chance to be an elite WR if you get him to buy in. I very much question his effort (not to mention production red flags), and as a result, bump him down to the 2nd round. But he has all the physical traits we're theoretically looking for to fill the X WR spot.
Worthy has the same effort questions but far worse physical limitations, so lower ceiling and same low chance of reaching his ceiling IMO. Not to mention I don't see him as an X, which is the more pressing issue for us. His production profile is definitely a lot more impressive though.
Ultimately, with where I have both of them graded, I know they'll be gone before I'd personally be willing to take either.
I appreciate the answer and it makes sense to me. Where I struggle is them being teammates and Worthy outshining Mitchell. To me that says Texas thought Worthy was the better player. I know the draft and nfl are different animals where projection of where they will be matters much more than who they have been but I just feel Worthy is a better player even if he doesn't look the part.
Since both of them have the effort question, is it fair to say that maybe they were coached to take it easy on certain plays? I think Mitchell's quote about not going all out each play was taken out of context and misunderstood but if lack of effort shows up on tape, there isn't really any denying it. I heard an interesting thing on Sirius that I hadn't thought of this morning, the NIL deals are showing teams who will continue to put in the work after getting life changing money. No longer is the NFL there first taste of being set financially so teams can look at who still works hard and on their craft.
Worthy outperformed Mitchell's best year in all 3 years of college. @DCOrange are there any concerns with Mitchell's late breakout or does his age negate that?
Are both of you good with Mitchell at 28? Or is there someone else you would prefer? I think @GunnerBill you would go Legette?
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Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy?
Worthy has the production and speed. Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well. Does it really just come down to height and weight?
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19 minutes ago, Brandon said:
Over many years of following the draft, one thing I've learned is that the depth always hollows out earlier than it seems like it should. In this draft, the WRs, in particular, will go higher than people think.
I actually think the opposite. Since this is a Bills fan site, the WRs in this draft are going much earlier than I believe they will in the real draft. The GM for the team drafting in front of the Bills admitted to picking Legette just so he wasn't an option for the Bills. The trade back almost worked perfectly as Legette was the 2nd leading vote getter in both v1 and v2. There is a dead spot in round 1 where from picks 11-28 only really the Jags look like a team that may take a wr.
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6 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
I’d be thrilled with Legette and Franklin
Perhaps Xavier at 28 and then move up from 60 for Franklin?
Or if Beane is confident both make it to Round 2, trade down with WSH or CAR and hopefully pick up a 3rd
Analytics really seem to love franklin this year. Pff has him very highly rated as well.
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30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I suspect he'll win the poll because everyone knows safety is a need. I just personally have no interest in drafting a safety anywhere in the top 75 picks. It's too easy to find good players at that position later in the draft. Especially in McDermott's defense we don't need studs at the position, just smart players that can learn the defense and stick to their zones.
I love Bullard here. I also dont think the team should try to find a diamond in the rough if the opportunity to get a very good player presents itself like it has here. Bullard would immediately jump into the starting lineup and upgrade the position.
Value and need matchup nicely here. Do you really want to lean on a 4th round or later rookie starter? I don't. Add in that I like Bullard as a player and this was an easy choice for me.
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@Alphadawg7 and the cardinals are back on the clock (dang dude leave some picks for the rest of us lol).
With the 34th pick the new england patriots waffled an awful lot on this pick but ultimately settled on Xavier Worthy WR Texas.
I get that ad mitchell looks like a better football player but worthy has produced more over his career.
My favorite trait of Worthys is how he sets up defenders to miss. Sometimes he changes speed, sometimes jukes but you can tell he understand how to set up the defender and then take advantage of their mistakes.
I wanted to go ot here but the value didn't match the pick. Then I waffled between McConkey and Worthy. For all the injury concerns with Worthy, McConkey has actual dealt with them.
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16 minutes ago, Virgil said:
I'm curious. Were you considering WR?
No i was thinking about cb there but ultimately decided ot was more important. After grabbing flowers last year I will be very surprised if the Ravens go wr again in round 1 especially since flowers was a hit.
Wr is certainly in play in round 2 and beyond I just think ol made more sense.
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TSW Mock Draft 3.0 - Completed!
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I have felt all along its qbs in the first 3 picks mhj to arizona then the vikings trading up with the chargers at 5. The Chargers could then use 11 and 23 to draft one of each of those guys.