billsfan89

The NFL unlike the MLB or NBA is very volatile. Injuries and luck in close games are always two big equalizers. Injuries can derail any season in any league but they are much more likely to happen in a given NFL season. Then of course there are always 2-3 close games in an NFL season that come down to a missed field goal or a late turnover or something very goofy. If those 2-3 games go against you a team that should have won 10 games wins 7 or 8. I genuinely think this team if reasonably healthy (every team has injuries) and no regression from Josh is a 10-11 win team and is easily a 12 win team with even moderate progression from Josh. But you just never know in the NFL what is going to happen.

To me the jury is still out on Flores, yes he did scratch 5 wins out of a team that probably should have only won 1-3 games BUT all he did was win 5 games. Many former NE coaches don't pan out long term and I think I am going to see what Flores does in year two with more expectations and talent before I call him a good coach. What doesn't make me afraid of Miami is their QB situation. Fitz is a mediocre QB and Tua in my opinion won't last at the NFL level health wise. If Tua is a bust that's at least 2-3 seasons burnt at the QB position. Why I think the Jets are the more looming threat is that they have the QB. I think Darnold will establish himself as a top 10 QB in the league next season and long term if nurtured right could be a top 5 QB. When you have the QB the rest of the team can fall in place a lot easier. They can sack Gase and find someone that can build around Darnold long term. The bottomline is that I am not so sure Flores is a good coach and if their QB situation with Tua doesn't pan out they are in for a rough time in the next 3 seasons. Whereas if Darnold is a top 10 QB the Jets despite their coaching will be competitive.

The Fins to me have a lot of issues along the O-line, a lackluster QB situation, so/so receivers and a defense that is fairly average. They scream a 7 win team to me. I don't know how well they are coached because Jauron would win 7 games with a ***** roster and I didn't consider him to be a good coach.

All the time Miami makes these big free agency splashes and I never see them have any level of sustained success. I think the Jets and Miami are mid-level teams who will win between 7-9 games depending on how lucky they are with injuries and close games. The Jets have the QB and rebuilt their O-line smartly this time, but they lack weapons and their defense is nothing more than average. Miami lacks a lot of talent in several areas but is improved and they are well coached. Both teams are a year away. Who I am not sure about in the division is the Patriots. Their defense and special teams are good but their offense could be tragic but I wouldn't put it past them to scratch out a decent offense with what they have. I could see the Pats winning 5 games or 11.

The Jets problem is their coach talent wise they are only a step behind (probably 2 starting pieces on defense and a reliable receiver away from having a similar talent level to what the Bills had in 2019) the 2019 Bills team talent wise but the coaching is mediocre at best. Gase scheme wise isn't a bad coach but he doesn't seem to know how to handle and mold the culture of an organization. What makes me fear the Jets long term is that I think Darnold will be a legit top 10 QB. But I question their ability to get enough talent around him in the next 2 seasons when he will still be on his rookie deal and if they won't dump Gase and rest their ability to compete by the time Darnold is due for a big cap hit. This past off-season the Jets actually acted pretty prudently. It was just the mess that was 2019 (lots of high end signings that ignored depth) free agency that set the team back. The Jets quietly rebuild their O-line with some smart signings and added several pieces to their offense via the draft. Their defense while nothing fantastic isn't tragic. I think Gase is a much bigger hinderance to that organization than their current GM (who wasn't there in the 2019 free agency period.) Gase is a good offensive mind but watching that team and that organization you see a team that has not culture and can't get out of its own way despite a not so bad talent level and a good young QB. I like Darnold he is what the Jets have going for themselves. Gase is what will hold that team back from winning more than 10 games in Darnold's rookie contract.

Their secondary is not that good besides Jamal Adams and they have an anemic pass rush. Their defense will be average at best.

Roberts game isn't based off of speed all that much and he isn't coming off of a major injury so I think his level of play should maintain. His best qualities are his reliability in fielding the ball and his patience in the return game.

Davis I think is a lock over McKenzie, I think that the competition for WR 5 is going to be insane (WR6 will be Roberts as a return man) McKenzie, Foster, Duke, and Hodgins will all be competing for one roster spot.

The Jets problem is their defense is mediocre to average and Darnold has no one to throw to. But they did have a nice draft further solidifying their O-line and getting a young receiver in there. But overall they are in my opinion a year away from seriously competing I think they win 8-9 games this season competitive for the last wildcard spot but not a serious threat in the division just yet. Now if they can continue that prudent approach into 2021 then I think they become a much more serious threat. But I wouldn't sleep on the Jets that's 2 games that won't be easy. The Dolphins I am not sold on being much more than a 7-8 win team. I don't think they play Tua and I think their big free agency splurge is bound to not give them the results they hoped. Long term their hopes rest on Tua and how he develops.

Hodges is on the bubble, not sure if he can beat out Mackenzie, Foster and Duke. Dane Jackson is likely to be on the PS. Moss, AJ, Davis, Fromm and Bass are likely to all make the roster.

I put that more on coaching than on Polian. Polian gave them the talent.

Indy won a Super Bowl, went to another and was constantly a contender when he was there. I say that run was just as good.

I think Gase saw how broken that locker room was starting to get and wants a stabilizing force in there. The Jets have been very prudent this off-season (compared to their spending spree in 2019) making smart acquisitions and trying to build a team as opposed to just trying to collect talent. Gore isn't going to be much more than a short yardage back on the field. But in the locker room he could be a great help to help the team's locker room culture.

I think Spain is an above average player in addition to Dawkins and Mitch. Spain gave up no sacks last year and was a good player in the rush attack. I think he is highly underrated after watching some more film on him. I think that as tempting as it is to think that the O-line lacking "Elite" players makes it a less than stellar unit that thinking ignores the realties of O-line play that is much more determined by playing as a unit and avoiding having a weak link. The Cowboys line is one way to build a line of just stacking as many elite players as possible. However I think the other (more easy to sustain) offensive line to model is the Giants O-line from 2005 to 2012 when they were a unit that featured 2-3 "Good players and 2-3 average to above average players BUT they played together for years on end in the same system and were one of the top 5 units in the NFL despite not having more than 1-2 Pro-Bowl caliber players at a time (Chris Snee, Sean O'Hara and David Diehl being the only O-line players to make a Pro-Bowl during that time and Diehl only made 1.) That O-line was more than the sum of its parts and allowed the team to spend bigger on other areas of the team being less reliant on stacking elite players. I think that is the model that McBeane is going for. Keeping a group of players who aren't elite on paper but are good and have a ton of chemistry and depth.

The D-line carries 8 typically and currently has 9 players who were either significantly high draft picks or on fairly decent sized contracts. Unless they plan to carry Addison as an LB I think you might be right in that they will look to trade some of that surplus.

Beane's attention to depth on the team is highly underrated the past 2 off-seasons. The Bills O-line rolls 9 deep with starting caliber players. The Bills D-line rolls 9 deep with starting caliber players. I have never seen the Bills ever have that level of depth on their lines before 2019. It isn't just the lines that are deep either. The running back position has 2 good backs and a decent veteran third RB in Yeldon. The WR core has 3 front line starters but also features a gadget WR5 in Mackenzie, added a 4th and 6th round pick to the mix, and has Duke and Foster competing for spots. I like that Beane has decided not to be a slave to comp picks and if he likes a player he will sign them in order to improve the roster instead of holding off on good players for a mid-round pick in next years draft. Beane has both managed to put this team in a position for short term success and sustained success at the same time.

Any O-line losing 2 starters is going to hurt any team's Super Bowl aspirations significantly. The Bills have the depth to field a mid-level or slightly below average O-line if they sustain 2-3 injuries in my opinion which is all you can ask for depth wise. The starting unit IF Ford can maintain the higher level of play he ended last season on features no bad players and a unit that will have better chemistry. I see 3 firmly above average players (Dawkins, Mitch, and Spain) and 2 players who I think will be average at worst and good at best (Feliciano and Ford.) Add in the chemistry improvement and I see a top 10 unit.

I think the O-line until will be a top 10 unit in the league next season. Continuity and chemistry are big factors in offensive line play. Prior to 2019 none of the Bills O-line players had played together let alone played for the same team in the same system. Despite that and starting a rookie at RT the Bills O-line was still decent in 2019. I think with a full year having played together (and all 5 players are under 30) and some improvement/development from Ford (he did play better late last season) the O-line should be a lot better. Dawkins is a top half of the league LT, Spain an above average guard, Mitch is top 5 at his position, Feliciano is an average to above average guard, and I expect Ford to play at least solid in 2020 with a year in the pros under his belt. The unit also has 3-4 good depth players behind that starting unit. I think that while the O-line might not be elite it certainly will be a good unit. Long term I think they will have to evaluate the right side in 2020 to see if Ford and Feliciano will be the long term answers but the unit should be good enough to allow Josh to handle his business. The Bills have a quality swing tackle in Ty, a starting caliber guard who can pinch into center in Long, Bates can play all 5 O-line positions and showed good play when called upon, and they added D.Williams a former All pro tackle reclamation project. I don't know how much deeper an O-line can get?

The O-line has 3-4 starting caliber players on the bench. If Dawkins goes out they have a respectable LT option in Ty. If Morse goes out they can shift Feliciano to Center and bring in Spencer Long to play guard. They also have D.Williams and a versatile player in Bates off the bench. Very few teams have more than 1 or 2 decent backup O-linemen the Bills have 3-4.

I don't think he is getting it. He fell short of 653 last season and he got 163 rushing attempts in a more legit time share for half of the season. The Jets have Lev Bell who is still a 3 down RB and will get most of the snaps. I guess it is possible but I think his snaps go down to less than 130 and if that's the case I don't see him surpassing last years rushing yards total with 30+ less carries to do so.

Gore at this point is nothing more than a locker room guy he is the NFL equivalent of the 19 year NBA vet who gets paid to sit on the bench and practice with the younger guys. I actually don't hate the move for the Jets, they need to clean up their culture a bit and Gore is the kind of vet that certainly helps and I think he is someone you would want around a young QB like Darnold. On the field I think the Bills got the last few drops of him out early last year (in particular the Titans game in which he basically closed the game out.) The last two thirds of the season Gore was done.

Star would get a one year deal from some team that runs a similar scheme. Just because he has been overpaid the past 2 seasons doesn't mean he doesn't have value and the fact that he is by all accounts not an issue in the locker room makes him easier to sign. Dareus comes with a toxic reputation one that coaches don't want to bring into the locker room.

Zack Moss was a really solid pick. I think he will be a quality 4.3 to 4.5 ypc between the tackles runner. I think by the end of their first season together Moss and Singletary will be viewed as one of the best young RB duos in the league.

That's my thought too, the game is the game, yes the fans add energy to it but in the end the game is played on the field and having limited or no fans in the stands doesn't change the game all that much for me. As long as it is on TV and being played the way it normally is I am good.

The offense also played the Steelers away, New England away and Baltimore at home during that stretch 3 of the most brutal defenses in the league and 2 of them away to boot. I think given that context it makes it a little more clear why the point totals got lower against those teams. Yes in the playoff game the offense ***** the bed. All they needed was to get the defense a three possession lead and they couldn't put the hammer down up 16. But the offense overall on the back half of the season was in my opinion better and more consistent against superior competition. I think it is cherry picking the most brutal 3 game stretch of the schedule and a game with the backups to say that the offense sputtered to close the regular season. If you take into account the totality of the back half of the regular season I think you see a more consistent less turnover prone offense.