thebandit27

Well, I've said it in my head a whole bunch... Seriously though, I did have to set one or two people straight...there were a few super-boisterous "I TOLD YOU SO" types, so I did have to do a bit of "where the heck were you?" stuff. In general though, I don't do I-told-you-so's until the guy gets a SB ring or a gold jacket; things can change so darn fast in the NFL.

Yeah, he was my #1 overall pick in 2017.

I didn't say you were putting Allen down. I said that you have to be careful with the stats game...for a lot of reasons... 1) Details matter. That "3rd ranked" Denver defense allowed 23.9 PPG in 2017; only 7 teams allowed more. By the way, the Tyrod-lead Bills scored more points against that same defense in Week 3 than Mahomes' Chiefs in Week 17. Also worth noting are the snap counts for Denver's defensive stars in that game: Talib - 10 Harris - 15 Miller - 33 All season-lows 2) Are you implying that experience makes a difference when evaluating a player? I agree. In fact, the biggest difference a player will ever experience is the difference between his first NFL offseason (which happens after the draft) and his first real NFL offsesaon (which happens after his first season). Once a rookie actually reaches the end of his first season, he's been in "season mode" for almost 17 months. He's gone from college pre-season in August through the bowl season in January, then into draft prep, combine, visits, workouts, etc. through April. Then, just a week or two later, he's already in rookie minicamp, followed by OTAs, minicamp, and a 6 week break to get his life in order before his first training camp. Forget the toll that takes on your body, what about the stress on your mind? It's no wonder that guys like Goff and Trubisky (and, to a lesser extent, Wentz) can go from looking utterly lost as rookies to looking like franchise QBs in year 2. I don't say all this to say that you're wrong to be skeptical of Allen, or that he's going to be as good as Mahomes. What I am saying, however, is that comparing the two of them based upon their respective NFL bodies of work is apples-to-oranges at this point.

Gotta be careful when you play the stats game... Allen's Week 17 stat line as a rookie in a meaningless game: 17/26, 224 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 9 rushes, 95 yards, 2 TDs Mahomes' Week 17 stat line as a rookie in a meaningless game: 22/35, 284 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 7 rushes, 10 yards, 0 TDs

I was the Ma-homer

He's probably going to want 50% more than William Gholston's 2017 deal that worked out to be ~$5.5M AAV. Since that's the case, Shaq's market value is probably something like $8M AAV. Of course, it's pointless to talk about it at this time, because what he does in 2019 will affect his value tremendously. And, of course, we have no idea what's going to happen with the CBA post 2020, so that's got the potential to change the contract landscape significantly as well.

I don't ask for much; I never even came close to saying that you needed to agree with me. But one thing I do ask for is honesty, so if you can't be honest then we're done here:

Yes, you mention this in at least 100% of the Josh Allen discussions that you participate, and in about 50% of them, I point out that it's silly to disregard his week 17 game. They all count. As for Allen's issues, I've said many times that there are 3 keys for him: 1) improve his play recognition/anticipation, 2) be more willing to take what the defense gives him, and 3) not rush his setup/delivery.

I'm assuming you're citing his time-to-throw as listed on NextGenStats here, well, you've totally missed the boat. Badly. Pressured on 41% of his dropbacks (and as I posted in the link, pressure is defined as coming against the QB in the pocket in less than 3 seconds)--more than any other QB in the NFL, yet somehow he still had 3.22 seconds per pass attempt. Go ahead, explain that away while clinging to the idea that "scrambling is BS". There's only one explanation for "pressured almost half the time he drops back to pass" while "having 3.22 seconds per dropback to throw"...unless you're going to claim that half the time his OL was the best pass-protecting unit in the NFL, and the other half of the time they were the worst. Or, perhaps even more agenda-driven, that they were the best pass-protecting unit in the NFL, which is why he had the most time per dropback, and that Allen is so lost that he actually created pressure against himself the remainder of the time, but that's such a ridiculous notion that I can't imagine there's a sane person that would try to sell it. EDIT: according to PFF, Allen actually faced pressure on 43.4% of his dropbacks. Not sure how their numbers differ, but either way, there still only one way explain that away. The above is just an example of where you tend to disregard very pertinent information in order to keep banging the same drum. It makes it really hard to take you seriously. What makes it even harder to take you seriously is when you claim that anyone that points out massive flaws in your analyses is somehow upset, a homer, or misrepresenting you. That's not what's happening here. There's no need to beg people to put you on ignore; just be honest. When you make an untrue claim, own it. I have said no less than 15 times that it's reasonable to be skeptical of Allen...it's not, however, reasonable to make things up and get mad when called out about it. Another example is you claiming that Goff was somehow so obviously better than Allen entering the league, but ignoring that he performed so much worse as a rookie. I mean, objectively, Allen was clearly a better QB than Goff as a rookie. And when confronted with the question, you ignore the idea that it's relevant to compare Allen's first season improvement pre and post injury to the first-year arc of guys like Goff, Wentz, and Trubisky. What a horse *****, moving of the goal posts tactic. You can't seriously expect me to pick out a QB that meets your subjective criteria for not being good at reading defenses in college? Furthermore, inherent in that request is an expectation that I acquiesce to the idea that Allen couldn't read a D in college. I don't, and that was never my evaluation of the guy. That certainly wasn't the rap on him coming out of Wyoming from anyone else's evaluation that I read. But just to satisfy your non-sequitur, here's an example of a QB that couldn't read a defense in college, got by on athletic talent alone, and didn't complete 60% of his passes in the NFL until his 8th season, but is also widely-regarded as a franchise QB: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/cam-newton?id=2495455 I think I can now say that I've done my best to have an intellectually honest discussion here.

According to NFL.com's NextGenStats: "Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts." Relax...it's not difficult to provide the whole definition.

I just find it so...odd. I mean, Ronin likes to make epic-long posts that are filled with jargon, but when challenged on data, examples, and even generalizations he just ignores it and whistles right on by. I'm still waiting for responses to... - why did you claim that Allen routinely has all day to throw? - where are the repeated examples of receivers throwing their arms up in disgust? - did you compare Allen's first 6 games vs. last 6 games improvement arc to other recent rookies like Goff, Wentz, & Trubisky? Like I've said a dozen or so times: it's fine to be an Allen skeptic. In some respects, it's entirely warranted. What's absurd is to make utterly false claims upon which you base your evaluation, and then completely ignore when you're challenged on those claims. I'd like to give Ronin the benefit of the doubt and believe that the lack of response to such challenges results from the sheer volume in each of his posts, which makes it difficult to keep up with responses. With each passing topic, I find that harder to do.

No offense intended here: I think that's looking at it backwards. $50k does far, far more for the recipient than $50, so while that may appear to be the case from an outsider's POV, as far as the hospital is concerned $50k from Gronk is in no way/shape/form the same as $50 from one of us.

FWIW, I've done some initial exploring. There's just no way to make up for the loss in income (yet). Give me another 4-5 years and we'll see.

Why do you keep defaulting to this argument when you've been shown in several different threads and by multiple posters that this isn't true?

Per the CBA, you cannot extend either guy until after the completion of the 2020 league year (in March of 2021)...as a practical matter, you'd like to get them to do an extension at that time because they'd be ERFAs, and 2 full years removed from having a shot at UFA.

Lawson's 2018 season makes the 2016 draft just slightly better than John Butler's last draft with the Bills

I don't know that I'd characterize the final 3 as "home runs" at this point, but I 100% agree that every pick they've made has "home run potential", which is a far cry from Rex's 2016 draft.

Perhaps...I think that the re-upping of Hughes was a huge tell. They clearly recognize that the pass rush is going to be an issue next offseason. No. What's your point? You're already worried that the team will have too many good players to re-sign their own in 2022? For starters, that's a problem for another day; let's worry about having good enough personnel for that to even be a concern first. On a more pragmatic note, you can easily shed salary as needed. Do you think that they'll keep John Brown instead of signing, say, Michael Thomas (and yes, I know he's likely to re-sign, but that's an example)? No way. They'd cut Brown and clear over $5M in cap room to add a new WR. Spencer Long has a team-option that would clear $4.5M. Think Trent Murphy sticks around if they sign Clowney? The point is, there are plenty of ways to manipulate the cap to keep your own. Good teams do it every year.

That's definitely what the article said too

I have to ask: was what the team did in FA this offseason "good cap management" or "chasing after shiny toys" in your opinion?

My word there are some salty folk 'round these parts. Look, Gronk may be an ass, but he has absolutely no requirement to give money to anyone or any cause. He donated a very large sum of money--more than the average American makes in a single year--to a very worthwhile cause in his home town. That some people have managed to find a way to criticize him for that says a LOT more about them than it does about him.

Seriously. The WR group is loaded relative to other years: AJ Green Tyler Boyd Emmanuel Sanders Amari Cooper Michael Thomas Robbie Anderson And that's before you get to the prove-it types like Josh Gordon, Josh Doctson, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, and Demarcus Robinson. It also doesn't count Tyreek Hill. That group, combined with the seemingly-elite group of WR prospects in the 2020 draft, makes it look like the Bills should be able to load up on pass-catching talent next offseason. As for pass rushers, here's a sampling of who's slated to become UFAs as of now: Jadeveon Clowney Dante Fowler Ziggy Ansah Shaq Barrett Yannick Ngakoue Mario Addison Whitney Mercilus Vic Beasley Bud Dupree Trust me, it's a very good year to have cap room and be in need of an EDGE rusher and WR.

Extensions for who? Dawkins is really the first guy, but he's under contract through 2021. White's fifth year option keeps him here through 2022. You're worried about Foster, who won't even be an ERFA until after 2020? Believe me, by the time those guys are eligible to sign extensions, a new CBA will be in place, which could make the cap soar even higher than the $220M it's likely to be in 2021. About the only guy you worry about is Poyer, who is criminally underpaid.

Who are you worried about re-signing in the next 2 years?