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Everything posted by Alphadawg7
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Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator
Alphadawg7 replied to Ray Stonada's topic in The Stadium Wall
I get what you are saying, but I just don't think the Chiefs can offensively keep up with the Bills right now leaning on Pacheco. It won't be a gimme game by any means, and Chiefs D has saved their season no doubt, but the way our offense is playing, coming off a bye with more time to give Brady to install more tweaks and wrinkles, I just think it will be a game where Chiefs won't keep up. Chiefs D is banged up and Bills know this is a must win game, this is essentially as close to a playoff game as it gets in the regular season for the Bills too. And remember, when Pacheco helped against the Jets the Chiefs were facing Zack Wilson on the other side of the ball, not Josh Allen. -
Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator
Alphadawg7 replied to Ray Stonada's topic in The Stadium Wall
Jets run D has not been great this year, and I am not too worried about Pacheco. Bills will put up 28+ and that will be more than KC puts up on us. KC is also banged coming out of the GB game too. -
Bills are going to make the playoffs, and I actually believe like I did in 2021 when we were 6 games out that we are going to probably win out. I know this will be split between the over optimistic crowd and the overly negative crowd, but I am not saying this to just say it. In 2021 I thought the Bills figured something out in the 2nd half of the Bucs game and I started a thread saying we would win out and they did. This year, not saying it out of blind homerism, but I really do think this team is about to finish the season strong and likely win out and make the playoffs because I am fully convinced that this offense under Brady is not just a 2 game fling and is going to continue down the stretch. Ive been watching a lot of content on the Dorsey offense vs the differences in the Brady led offense, and its remarkable Dorsey kept his job as long as he did. This offense IMHO has turned a corner that will stay the rest of the season. Its now coming off a bye week to get even more settled into what Brady wants to do and tweaks and wrinkles they want to install. So lets look at what is in store and why I feel this team is about to cook the next 5 weeks and enter the playoffs as maybe the hottest team in the AFC: KC - Coming off a loss and an offense with no identity anymore. The personnel grouping there is shockingly bad and this offense can no longer keep up with high powered offenses. The thing that has saved KC this year has been the much improved defense, but that defense just got cooked by GB and took some injuries in that game too. I think the Bills coming in off a bye, KC in an offensive rut, Rasul and Linval now more comfortable in our defense, and this just feels like a game the Bills win and probably win decisively. DAL - They are the Dolphins of the NFC - They struggle against the better teams in the league while boosting stats on bad teams. Their "DPOY" just got torched by Seattle along with their whole defense, and that offense in Seattle is mediocre at best. Dak on the road in Buffalo is a recipe for a down game. I think because of Buffalos 6-6 record and early season offensive struggles that people see this game as more dangerous than it really is. I actually think we are going to beat the Cowboys handedly. Wouldn't surprise me if it looks a lot like what the Niners did to Dallas. LAC - Allen and this offense will drop over 40 on that defense, especially without Bosa. Herbert and that offense can score too, and this might be a high scoring game, but Staley and the LAC are the best in the NFL at losing games, so even if they put a lot of points up I still think the Bills win by 2 scores. NE - Its New England - we arent losing to them twice. Bottom 3 team in the NFL right now without question. MIAMI - With Trevors ankle injury, and KC losing to GB and probably losing to us this week, the #1 seed could very well be locked down for Miami by week 17 and they would rest their starters for all or part of the game. Either way, I do not expect Miami to have much to play for and we probably don't see their starters for more than a half. BUT even if they do need to win and play the whole game, we always cook the Fish, so a dub either way in my eyes. The key to beating Miami is take away Tuas first read and don't give up the big play, something the Bills have excelled at during the Tua-Hill era. I see 5 games, and I see 5 wins. Negative crowd is gonna flame away, just like they did in 2021. But I really do think this team is about to cook these last 5 weeks and that momentum will carry over into the post season where I don't see too much of a threat standing in the way to reach the AFCCG for the Bills. With the offense humming and the defense integrating so much needed veteran reinforcements in Rasul and Linval, I think we are poised to make a run here. I think 5-0 is quite possible, but even 4-1 may get the job done of getting in.
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Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator
Alphadawg7 replied to Ray Stonada's topic in The Stadium Wall
All anyone needs to focus on is beat the Chiefs. We can't take another AFC loss, we are already in very bad shape as it is with tie breakers, so we can't both take another loss and have it be an AFC team. That being said, I am confident we will beat the Chiefs, they will not be able to keep up with us scoring wise. -
I hope that Beane stops listening to McDermott when drafting
Alphadawg7 replied to margolbe's topic in The Stadium Wall
I swear, its like there are people here who don't watch football or the games. So you are unhappy that Bills drafted Milano (undersized LB) and Bernard (maybe our best defensive player on the season thus far and also undersized LB)? Landing an all pro LB in Milano in the 5th round and then landing Bernard in the 3rd is an issue for you? You are equally upset with finding quality cornerbacks who are good enough to start in the NFL late in drafts too like Benford and Dane is also an issue for you? Literally this is one of the most ridiculous posts I have ever seen. Hey, lets stop drafting all-pros, potential pro-bowlers, and quality depth and starters late in drafts so we can draft a bunch of offensive guys that likely don't make the team. And then the irony is in a thread where you literally said to stop drafting defense basically you also say we need to replace Jones (who was playing as one of the best DT's in the NFL this year prior to getting hurt) and Milano (an all pro MLB whose injury is expected to be a full recovery). So with no money to spend, where are the Bills getting those "replacements" if you don't want them drafting them? LOL, this thread really makes no sense what so ever. -
Yeah cuz that’s all him right lol 🙄
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What do you mean without actual success? Bills have the best record in the NFL since 2020 coming into this season, 2nd only to KC I think by like 1 game. Allen wins, and he wins a lot. He was the best player on the field in the playoffs for 2 weeks in 2021 but the team let him down. He was so good the NFL changed a rule because of him. He holds multiple records already in regular season and playoffs. He has twice as many TD's (20) as Burrow (10) in the post season despite only 1 more game played. Sorry, to say he does it without actual success is just false.
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Addressing the "Josh Allen is TO machine" narrative
Alphadawg7 replied to FireChans's topic in The Stadium Wall
And I will add that coming into this season, Allen had a better record than all of them not named Mahomes too...he wins...a lot. Even with this down year (thanks Dorsey) I think he would be among the top in terms of record since 2020. -
Hurts had 2 turnovers.
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What are the odds. Rodgers and Love's first 11 starts
Alphadawg7 replied to Gregg's topic in The Stadium Wall
3 straight HOF QB's - crazy 😂 -
Nah, hes been gone long enough it wont mater. And he might want to try and upset them after they traded him anyway cuz they wanted to focus on Goedert.
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Random talking head says something about the Bills
Alphadawg7 replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
There is one BIG factor that might save McD if we finish strong but still miss the playoffs. Dorsey. Averaging 20.5 points per game, never scoring over 25, during the easiest 6 game stretch of the season sunk this team. The defense played well enough for us to have won enough games to be the #1 seed right now, but the offense just couldn't score enough points. And the defense is the side missing top level players, offense has been healthy all year at all key positions for the most part. Brady coming out and showing what a difference removing Dorsey was could give McD some cushioning if we say go 4-1 down the stretch and miss the playoffs. Obviously if we keep losing more games, I don't think anything can save McD. And I agree, if we go 5-0 (6-1 since Dorsey was fired) to end the season, playoffs or no playoffs McD is probably safe. Im not saying what I think should happen...just what I think will happen. -
Most likely goes home to Philly. If not, then it will likely be Ravens, KC, or maybe Cowboys. It wont be here, there is no role for him here.
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Kurt Warner did a big film break down on the Jets INT's and he felt that 2 of them were on the either play design or the WR's running poor routes because the spacing between WR's was key to why those INT's happened. And we saw multiple times throughout the season where spacing on routes were causing issues with Dorsey. Then you add in Bills are 1-2 vs Jets (both losses to Wilson at QB) and avg 17.7 PPG with Dorsey at OC in 3 games never scoring over 20 and you see Brady led offense drop 32 in a game we probably score 40-50 had we not taken the foot off the gas for more than a quarter in a blow out win and it just lends even more credence to Dorsey being a big factor on the week 1 INT issues too.
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Von Miller faces arrest in domestic violence case in Dallas
Alphadawg7 replied to ArdmoreRyno's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yeah, the Araiza situation was so crazy, couldn't believe how many wanted to hang him when there was clear evidence that suggested he might not even be involved. Including her dumb lawyer releasing her journal entries that stated the next morning she had no idea how she got in the room and no idea who was in the room, and questioned her own decisions being part of what happened. Then there were own friends giving statements Matt wasn't even at the house. Like all this came out the first 24 hours on top of no chargers ever being filed and just a lawyer going after money not justice who was trying to convict him in the court of public opinion on twitter. But even now with Von, like you said, its not that hard to get an arrest warrant, so I will wait until more is known. But not a good look and start when Von was previously investigated for DV in 2021 in Colorado and now has an actual arrest warrant issued. -
Von Miller faces arrest in domestic violence case in Dallas
Alphadawg7 replied to ArdmoreRyno's topic in The Stadium Wall
LIke I did with Araiza, I will wait and see what happens and what comes out before I react to this. But obviously does not look good if its DV involving a pregnant woman. Guess if its true, he and Tyreek Hill can get some beers and talk about their baby mama dramas lol Sadly, the first thing that popped in my head was "will this allow us to get out of Von's contract" through a morality clause. Never gonna route for DV against women, but if this is true, that actually might help the Bills overall cuz he is useless on the field this year as it is and it would give us cap space next season. -
2022 higher INT % than 2021. 2023 even higher INT % than 2022. Dorsey was the OC in 2022 and 2023 and it got worse both years. In 2 games immediately following Dorseys dismissal Offense is avg 13 PPG more than Dorseys final 6. During those 6 games, Dorsey led offense faced the weakest stretch of oppoosition on our schedule. Brady led offense after being thrown in mid season is avg 33 PPG and faced much tougher defenses in Jets and Philly. The Offense has not scored less than 32, 7 points more than the highest output in Dorsey's final 6 games. VS Jets, Dorsey led offense was 1-2 and averaged 17.7 PPG...Under Brady, we scored 32 even though we took our foot off the gas for the entire 4th quarter in a blowout. If you don't count the hail mary INT, Josh has 1 INT in 82 actual pass attempts which is a 1.2 INT% substantially lower than under Dorsey. Even if you count the hail mary, he is still significantly lower these 2 games than he was with Dorsey this season. There is no dismissing Dorsey from being a bit part of the problem. Doesn't mean there were not other mistakes or issues...but all teams have those by all players. But when the OC, or any coach, is fundamentally an issue then you will have inconsistency and players won't be in position to play their best. And that was the biggest issue with Dorsey, he was in over his head as a first time OC. Very well might learn what he needs to and grow and become a great OC one day, but he was hurting Allen and this offense and there is really no way refute that.
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It climbed further this year under Dorsey too. So his two highest periods of his career were under Dorsey and getting worse. And again, Dorsey gone and Bills are avg 13 points per game more and against tougher competition. So everything still suggests Dorsey was a major issue for this offense and didn’t have Allen playing his best football either.
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Addressing the "Josh Allen is TO machine" narrative
Alphadawg7 replied to FireChans's topic in The Stadium Wall
Then he got hurt and his first full season he had Higgins, Chase and Boyd. Allen spent 2 years throwing to scrubs on a team cutting players and eating dead cap space while Bengals were adding talent from the moment Burrow got there. -
He is at 1.22% since Brady took over if you don't count the Hail Mary. 2 games is a small sample size, but its a substantial difference. Offense was avg 20.5 PPG final 6 games Dorsey was here against mostly pretty weak competition and 33 PPG against the stellar Jets D that smashed the Bills offense week 1 under Dorsey and a tough D from one of the best teams in the league on the road in Philly. In fact, Josh Allens INT % was 17% higher under Dorsey than Daboll, and that includes Daboll having to coach Allen his first 2 years as a RAW player with no weapons or talent around him to work with. Dorsey had prime Allen with Diggs and company, including this year which is probably the most talented offensive roster in the Beane/Allen ERA. So I think there it is safe to say that Dorsey is a big reason for that and it might just be different moving forward with Brady (or whoever if Brady isn't back next year).
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Addressing the "Josh Allen is TO machine" narrative
Alphadawg7 replied to FireChans's topic in The Stadium Wall
Lost in this is that Josh Allen started his career off as RAW college prospect, forced to start game 1, with no talent around for 2 years on a franchise that was gutting its roster and cap space for a rebuild. His TD to Turnover ratio was 1.74 for 2018-2019 which drags his career number down and doesn't reflect the player he became. From 2020 on he above Burrow who started his career off with Tee Higgins and Chase after coming from a big college program, with better coaching, and more ready to play.