I agree with you, but you're too run obsessed. Teams can't actually pound the ball on us, it's deceptive. We have that weird (and absolutely horribly) bend but don't break defense. At first, I thought it was funny to keep saying that 5 or 6 times a game, but I've finally realized that it really is the defensive game plan. Allow the team to do whatever they want in any 7-10 yard pattern, with the idea that eventually they'll lose a down and go down field. Once they've lost a down, they panic and start to throw. Teams with good quarterbacks know to just throw to the down and out receiver. All other teams lose to us.
And so, my main criticism with your season predicting stats, is that you think we lose the games we'll lose based on defense. I think we'll lose the games we'll lose based on our offensive game plan (or lack thereof). Every time a team successfully prepares for us, we will lose. Our only hope is that the team has no confidence in Fitz, and actually calls successful running plays. A 70/30 ratio, with our RBs could actually mean we can pull out some games...but I don't coach this team, skeletron does.