John Adams Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Well I would have to attack them another 120 times each to match the total times your backside has been attacked by random men at various rest stops across the country. Yawn. GG...I said I am out. I said 8200 is a resistance level that I don't feel we will bust through. If it closes today anything more than 50-100 points over that, I will consider myself wrong.There is almost no way we could break through the 200 day moving average [we did that in May, not that Dwight could admit it].... If the market busts through that and we head towards 10,000...I will gladly admit that I was too cautious and will eat crow. Still waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwight Drane Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Yawn. Still waiting. Here's a question. If everyone thinks I'm goofy and full of crap... And everyone says I don't know what I am talking about and have been wrong about everything I said... Why would you want me to admit to being wrong about something, in such a desperate manner? Would it not be a given that you should not take what I say seriously, and I will be wrong in any manner? Your intensity, along with the intensity of others in "following" me only leads me to be flattered. There are plenty of clueless posters on this website....I tend not to respond to anything they post. Your demands for an admission of fault or an appology of some sort comes across as a jilted ex-girlfriend who wants self-validation long after the fact. Not to mention I tell you specifically in this thread that I previously said I was wrong. I for one do not see anyone supporting me in any substantial regard here, so I don't understand why you are so bent out of shape. If you want me to pack up and go home.....it will be soon enough, don't worry. Even the amount of fun I have getting some of you guys worked up in a tizzy isn't worth it if it becomes too personal. I don't wish harm on anyone, I just enjoy some mental sparring while I am busy waiting on other things. You need to relax a little Adams....you're a good dude. I know you will understand in the end what it was all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Why would you want me to admit to being wrong about something, in such a desperate manner? We don't. That wouldn't be any fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwight Drane Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 We don't. That wouldn't be any fun. Congratulations on the new baby by the way. Where did you find that thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Congratulations on the new baby by the way. Where did you find that thing? It was foretold of in Revelations 16:12-19. I'm surprised you didn't know that. It wasn't too far after the prediction that "the coming of the reign of fire shalt halt the competition between the saint of diegus and the roaming beasts from the land of the great falls" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwight Drane Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 You guys are like a bunch of sorrority sisters.....I ask one a question and someone else answers it for them. Let me ask Ramius a question, then maybe Alaska Darin will chime in.....he seems to be the only one missing from the Drane Circlejerk. Edit: whoops....he gave me the potato chips.....forgot about that. Ramius....I'll give you a mulligan today. I saw your response in the other thread so I'll try to explain very simple, once again that I do not make financial predictions because I feel we are in the end times..........I came to the conclusion we are in the end times after seeing the financial and geopolitical situation we were in the past decade. There is no way to reverse the magnitude of the financial problem without starting a major war of some kind. Be it civil, revolution, or world. I don't control how or when we get there....I can just give my best estimates which is what I have been doing. I really hope I am wrong....but I fear I am not. You have a right to laugh. I said I used to laugh too. It's just a really sad state of affairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 I do not make financial predictions because I feel we are in the end times..........I came to the conclusion we are in the end times after seeing the financial and geopolitical situation we were in the past decade. Oh yeah, that's not retarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Here's a question. If everyone thinks I'm goofy and full of crap... And everyone says I don't know what I am talking about and have been wrong about everything I said... Why would you want me to admit to being wrong about something, in such a desperate manner? ... GG...I said I am out. I said 8200 is a resistance level that I don't feel we will bust through. If it closes today anything more than 50-100 points over that, I will consider myself wrong.There is almost no way we could break through the 200 day moving average [we did that in May, not that Dwight could admit it].... If the market busts through that and we head towards 10,000...I will gladly admit that I was too cautious and will eat crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Where did you find that thing? Made it. Bought a hamster, let him read your posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwight Drane Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Made it. Bought a hamster, let him read your posts... Well then he's going to really love my Ustream broadcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Equity values are not normal assets. They are the residual of revenues and costs. If both go up in an inflation, your profit is unchanged. Look up equity performance in inflationary periods and then tell me if buyers will bid up stocks because everything is getting more expensive. If you buy into the Fed money machine theory, you shouldn't be looking to put money is the stock market. I don't believe that the stock market is a solid place to put your money over the next 12 months, hell for that matter next 3 years. All though I do believe it will go higher over the next 6 months, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P at 1200. There is just too much cash sitting on the sidelines eager to take advantage of this historic run that is going on right now. Of course alot of that money will be chasing after more money and usually those who chase usually end up getting burned. Funny thing about bubbles though, they tend to keep growing and growing and can last a long time before they get burst. Over the next 6 months we will be hearing improving economic data (albeit from disastrously low levels) but none the less it will continue to give reasons for people to chase after more gains. I would guess that after the stimulus wears off not just from Treasury but from the Fed through their Emergency lending programs and also that most investors deem this run unjustified and commercial realestate really starts to falter we could be in for a very big pull back, unless of course Treasury comes up with another round of Stimulus (which would have deficit risk implications) and the Federal Reserve doesn't put too much emphasis on exiting their programs than I would imagine the pull back to be less severe. That isn't to say that I would disagree with those things happening, I don't believe we would should have another round of Stimulus and I do believe that FEDS should clearlya be communicating their exit strategy. My guess is that they won't, they don't have the political will to stomach dipping into a second recession, which probably would be the healthiest long term development for this economy. I agree with what you said GG in regards to equity performance in inflationary times. Inflation is terrible for equity values, even more so if you have stagnant growth, which is what I am predicting over the next 5 years, with elevated levels of inflation (which is a double whammy). Inflation is going to eat in to profits on a corporate level (higher input costs) and it will eat in to the consumers pockets. But that isn't really what I was getting at, I was more referring to what I believe we will see over the next 6 months or so, which is higher equity values. Inflation will not pose a serious threat in the short term, there are way too many deflationary issues out there for that to happen. So I would say that you would probably make money if you invested in stocks over the next couple months, for the reasons I mentioned above, all though I would advise against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 I don't believe that the stock market is a solid place to put your money over the next 12 months, hell for that matter next 3 years. All though I do believe it will go higher over the next 6 months, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P at 1200. There is just too much cash sitting on the sidelines eager to take advantage of this historic run that is going on right now. Of course alot of that money will be chasing after more money and usually those who chase usually end up getting burned. Funny thing about bubbles though, they tend to keep growing and growing and can last a long time before they get burst. Over the next 6 months we will be hearing improving economic data (albeit from disastrously low levels) but none the less it will continue to give reasons for people to chase after more gains. I would guess that after the stimulus wears off not just from Treasury but from the Fed through their Emergency lending programs and also that most investors deem this run unjustified and commercial realestate really starts to falter we could be in for a very big pull back, unless of course Treasury comes up with another round of Stimulus (which would have deficit risk implications) and the Federal Reserve doesn't put too much emphasis on exiting their programs than I would imagine the pull back to be less severe. That isn't to say that I would disagree with those things happening, I don't believe we would should have another round of Stimulus and I do believe that FEDS should clearlya be communicating their exit strategy. My guess is that they won't, they don't have the political will to stomach dipping into a second recession, which probably would be the healthiest long term development for this economy. I agree with what you said GG in regards to equity performance in inflationary times. Inflation is terrible for equity values, even more so if you have stagnant growth, which is what I am predicting over the next 5 years, with elevated levels of inflation (which is a double whammy). Inflation is going to eat in to profits on a corporate level (higher input costs) and it will eat in to the consumers pockets. But that isn't really what I was getting at, I was more referring to what I believe we will see over the next 6 months or so, which is higher equity values. Inflation will not pose a serious threat in the short term, there are way too many deflationary issues out there for that to happen. So I would say that you would probably make money if you invested in stocks over the next couple months, for the reasons I mentioned above, all though I would advise against it. In other words, it'll be just like Family Feud if people stopped answering their surveys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 In other words, it'll be just like Family Feud if people stopped answering their surveys. Nah, more like Let's Make a Deal with nothing behind any doors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 I don't believe that the stock market is a solid place to put your money over the next 12 months, hell for that matter next 3 years. All though I do believe it will go higher over the next 6 months, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P at 1200. There is just too much cash sitting on the sidelines eager to take advantage of this historic run that is going on right now. Of course alot of that money will be chasing after more money and usually those who chase usually end up getting burned. Funny thing about bubbles though, they tend to keep growing and growing and can last a long time before they get burst. Over the next 6 months we will be hearing improving economic data (albeit from disastrously low levels) but none the less it will continue to give reasons for people to chase after more gains. I would guess that after the stimulus wears off not just from Treasury but from the Fed through their Emergency lending programs and also that most investors deem this run unjustified and commercial realestate really starts to falter we could be in for a very big pull back, unless of course Treasury comes up with another round of Stimulus (which would have deficit risk implications) and the Federal Reserve doesn't put too much emphasis on exiting their programs than I would imagine the pull back to be less severe. That isn't to say that I would disagree with those things happening, I don't believe we would should have another round of Stimulus and I do believe that FEDS should clearlya be communicating their exit strategy. My guess is that they won't, they don't have the political will to stomach dipping into a second recession, which probably would be the healthiest long term development for this economy. I agree with what you said GG in regards to equity performance in inflationary times. Inflation is terrible for equity values, even more so if you have stagnant growth, which is what I am predicting over the next 5 years, with elevated levels of inflation (which is a double whammy). Inflation is going to eat in to profits on a corporate level (higher input costs) and it will eat in to the consumers pockets. But that isn't really what I was getting at, I was more referring to what I believe we will see over the next 6 months or so, which is higher equity values. Inflation will not pose a serious threat in the short term, there are way too many deflationary issues out there for that to happen. So I would say that you would probably make money if you invested in stocks over the next couple months, for the reasons I mentioned above, all though I would advise against it. That's all fine and dandy, but the original question (which hasn't been answered) still stands: How do 15,000 Dow and $3,500 gold coexist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 How do 15,000 Dow and $3,500 gold coexist? Simple...the seven-headed, ten-horned beast replaces have the Dow components with mining stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 That's all fine and dandy, but the original question (which hasn't been answered) still stands: How do 15,000 Dow and $3,500 gold coexist? I can't possibly see 15,000 Dow and $3,500 gold. The only possible scenario that it could happen in my view is that the dollar becomes the primary currency for the carry trade, global growth improves, risk aversion becomes the name of the game, stocks go up and the dollar gradually declines. But even in that scenario, the dollar would have to fall apart for there to be $3,500 gold, which is a possibility, but if that were to happen, you would most likely see the Dow at 6,500 or possibly even lower. I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 In other words, it'll be just like Family Feud if people stopped answering their surveys. I don't know where you are getting this from, but I never said that the DOW will go to 15,000 and Gold to $3500. You have got me confused with someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Simple...the seven-headed, ten-horned beast replaces have the Dow components with mining stocks. So i should invest in fire and brimstone. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 I don't know where you are getting this from, but I never said that the DOW will go to 15,000 and Gold to $3500. You have got me confused with someone else. Whoa, hey...I was just mocking Dwight's game show analogy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Whoa, hey...I was just mocking Dwight's game show analogy again. My bad, I didn't read that post he made, I usually tend to ignore them if they are over a paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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