Dibs Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 Interesting stats below - suggests that at best you get a 50/50 shot at getting a decent QB in round 1 .. worse yet very few play well in their first two years. Not saying Trent is the answer but I would not be in such a big hurry to think the team is going to get turned around by a first round QB. A stud DE or LB may have more impact right away Crunching the Numbers: First-Round QBs, 1989-2003 Number of QBs drafted: 30 Notable busts: Ryan Leaf, Todd Marinovich, David Klingler, Akili Smith, Cade McNown Number of busts: 16 Bust percentage: 53% Number of QBs with at least one Pro Bowl appearance: 10 Pro Bowl percentage: 33% Noticeable second-tier (not busts, but not stars): Jeff George, Trent Dilfer, Kerry Collins, Byron Leftwich, Rex Grossman For the sake of comparison Percentage of first-round RB busts: 49% Percentage of first-round WR busts: 45% I look at things similarly.....but worse. It's important to differentiate IMO how the QB performed for the drafting team. Dilfer for instance showed nothing at TB so therefore is considered a bust for the purposes of the team drafting him. Basically there is no benefit to draft a player who does not perform & is let go & then performs at a high level elsewhere later in his career(not that Dilfer performed at a high level ). Also.....players who only put things together for one or two seasons(ala Leftwich, Grossman) should also IMO not be considered to be draft day successes. Here is my look at QBs drafted in the 1st round from 1987-2003. There is only a 27% success rate. If you take away the #1 pick in the draft.....the success rate drops to 18% If you take away picks #1-#5.....the success rate drops to 10% Interestingly the success rate for rounds 2&3 is 20% #1s…..5 hits out of 9….56% #1 Vinny Testaverde #1 Troy Aikman #1 Jeff George #1 Drew Bledsoe #1 Peyton Manning #1 Tim Couch #1 Michael Vick #1 David Carr #1 Carson Palmer TOP 5…..8 hits out of 17….47% #2 Rick Mirer #3 Heath Shuler #3 Steve McNair #5 Kerry Collins #2 Ryan Leaf #2 Donovan McNabb #3 Akili Smith #3 Joey Harrington TOP 10…..8 hits out of 22….36% #6 Kelly Stouffer #7 Andre Ware #6 David Klingler #6 Trent Dilfer #7 Byron Leftwich TOP 20…..10 hits out of 28….36% #13 Chris Miller #16 Dan McGuire #11 Daunte Culpepper #12 Cade McNown #18 Chad Pennington #19 Kyle Boller FIRST ROUND…..10 hits out of 37….27% #26 Jim Harbaugh #? Steve Walsh #? Timm Rosenbach #24 Todd Marinovich #25 Tommy Maddox #? Dave Brown #26 Jim Druckenmiller #32 Patrick Ramsey #22 Rex Grossman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 Get rid of useless Losman and let the China Doll be the backup... by "QB" I presume you mean "Center" or "Defensive End", right? If so, good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 Oh, what the...we're not back to "winning only hurts the franchise", are we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koufax Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 I would like to say again, as I repeat every time this comes up: The experience of winning an extra game spread across the 35+ players who will be back with your team the following year exceeds the value of increased draft position due to an extra loss. I think this is a universal truth, difficult to contest, and the "if we lose a couple more games we could draft as high as xth" line of reasoning sucks tremendously, and represents both a lack of understanding of football and a general loser mentality. I certainly have been frustrated with our team and want Jauron gone as soon as possible and replaced with an exceptional head coach. But I really want us to win our 7th game as soon as possible, and have a chance at an 8th win, and if we somehow manage that have a chance at a 9th win. I can't wait to see this team back in the playoffs, back in the super bowl, and most importantly winning the super bowl. Lots of things I think can be improved to help make that happen (many I worry will not be until Ralph is gone...he frankly would rather die with lots of money than accomplish something meaningful that would bring him great joy). However I do not think in this league losing any game is ever a good thing. If the right QB is available to draft I think that would be nice, but I also think that Edwards has a history of being an accurate passer with good vision and decision making, and I do not think he needs to be written off after a concussion and sophomore slump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 You're generous. Must be the holiday season! I wouldn't put Vick or Culpepper on the success list. Even without going to the dogs, Vick was a marginal QB, same with Culpepper. But I totally agree with the premise though that the odds of getting agood QB in the draft are low. That's the problem in the league, not enough good QB's to go around. I can think of a handfull of people playing today, picked high who were expected to do well and followed through on it. Both Mannings, Brees, McNabb, Palmer, Rivers, Peddington marginal. A list of people who have turned out to be very good but nothing expected of them prior to playing are as follows; Brady, Romo, Warner, Farve, Delhome, Rothesberger, maybe Culter, but too early yet for certain. I look at things similarly.....but worse.It's important to differentiate IMO how the QB performed for the drafting team. Dilfer for instance showed nothing at TB so therefore is considered a bust for the purposes of the team drafting him. Basically there is no benefit to draft a player who does not perform & is let go & then performs at a high level elsewhere later in his career(not that Dilfer performed at a high level ). Also.....players who only put things together for one or two seasons(ala Leftwich, Grossman) should also IMO not be considered to be draft day successes. Here is my look at QBs drafted in the 1st round from 1987-2003. There is only a 27% success rate. If you take away the #1 pick in the draft.....the success rate drops to 18% If you take away picks #1-#5.....the success rate drops to 10% Interestingly the success rate for rounds 2&3 is 20% #1s…..5 hits out of 9….56% #1 Vinny Testaverde #1 Troy Aikman #1 Jeff George #1 Drew Bledsoe #1 Peyton Manning #1 Tim Couch #1 Michael Vick #1 David Carr #1 Carson Palmer TOP 5…..8 hits out of 17….47% #2 Rick Mirer #3 Heath Shuler #3 Steve McNair #5 Kerry Collins #2 Ryan Leaf #2 Donovan McNabb #3 Akili Smith #3 Joey Harrington TOP 10…..8 hits out of 22….36% #6 Kelly Stouffer #7 Andre Ware #6 David Klingler #6 Trent Dilfer #7 Byron Leftwich TOP 20…..10 hits out of 28….36% #13 Chris Miller #16 Dan McGuire #11 Daunte Culpepper #12 Cade McNown #18 Chad Pennington #19 Kyle Boller FIRST ROUND…..10 hits out of 37….27% #26 Jim Harbaugh #? Steve Walsh #? Timm Rosenbach #24 Todd Marinovich #25 Tommy Maddox #? Dave Brown #26 Jim Druckenmiller #32 Patrick Ramsey #22 Rex Grossman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offside Number 76 Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 What is wrong with some of you people? A team can't go changing rookie QBs every couple of years and expect success. Where was Eli Manning a few seasons ago? Drew Brees? Hell, what was Kelly's first season like? How about Aikman? (That was no wins in 11 starts; I'll save you all the google search.) Look, Edwards has been far from stellar, but the Bills haven't given a rookie QB a legitimate shot since 1986--and that's if Kelly qualified as a true "rookie." That's a huge problem. It takes time to develop a player at that position. And it's not like they've surrounded their rookie QBs with a lot of talent, either. Yeah, a couple of teams have had some success right out of the gate recently with quarterbacks--New England (I STILL say Brady's a product of the system, and Cassel isn't making that any tougher to believe), and Pittsburgh are the most notable. But the vast majority of the time, it takes a little while. How about some legitimate front-seven men on D, or a tight end who can catch a pass and still remain on his feet? Edwards may or may not be the answer; we don't know yet. I may even be leaning towards "no, he isn't the answer." But there are other players on this team who definitely are NOT NFL-quality starters, and I think the Bills should start there first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Fong Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 Why? So the Bills can pick the wrong one? No thanks. Go with line in the 1st round. Doesn't matter which one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfreak Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 How many times do we have to bring the Franchise QB into Buffalo? Didn't we just give up a boat load of draft picks to our buddies in Dallas to draft J.P. (aka-Just can't Play). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 Whatever. We'll draft another QB and kill his career too. Buffalo is where careers come to die. PTR I hear ya on that. Is there any doubt in your mind that the year the bills drafted Evans/losman, if they were somehow aboe to jump ahead of Pitt & get Big Ben he probably be out of the league next year his play would be so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 Dunno why some people never learn that no matter how many franchise QB's the bills trade for or draft that NOTHING will change. This coaching staff would manage to screw up Brett Farve,Drew Brees,Phillip Rivers ect. I see at least 4 games the Bills could have won this year if they had only focused on running the ball more. This OC calls a run and if it fails to gain yardage he gives up on the ground game completely.In fact this OC calls plays like the Bills have an elite QB,which they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VJ91 Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 Get rid of useless Losman and let the China Doll be the backup... Four of the past ten Super Bowl winners had "franchise first round pick" quarterbacks start. John Elway, Ben Roethlesberger, Peyton Manning & Eli Manning. The other 6?: Back-up undrafted free agent Kurt Warner, free agent Trent Dilfer, 6th round draft choice Tom Brady (3 times, and was the back up QB starting the season of his first one) and free agent Brad Johnson for the Bucs' SB win. So who really cares about drafting that "franchise quarterback", when 60% of the past 10 SB winners won without drafting one themselves? Maybe the China Doll, Trent "Warm Weather" Edwards will lift more weights this coming off season, find some additional mental toughness, and become a fine starting QB in his third year. There are much more important pieces of the Bills' puzzle to put back together then to waste the money and draft pick on the high priced rookie quarterback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ball Coach Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 Get rid of useless Losman and let the China Doll be the backup... Can you stop and pull your head out of your A$$ and get off the QB crap. Trent is just fine, JP is gone. what needs to happen is to fix the O line. Question when was the last time you went to practice? and put in your 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pass the Pipe Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 Get rid of useless Losman and let the China Doll be the backup... You act as if they have a choice, there is no way they win any of the three remaining games against teams that are in the playoff hunt. I wonder if Vegas has a three game parlay because this is a slam dunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 We have the QB in Edwards. We have far greater needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwi Bills fan Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 I agree with you 100% (We also really need new coaching.) NO Lets fix the problems AROUND the QB I actually have no problem with going into next year as Trent Edward my QB (you need to bring in a competant backup in case of injury) - This team cannot generate a pass rush without blitzing........that has to be number one on the fix list - This team needa a CENTER....I would like the top center coming out of college please - This team needs a pass catching Tight End threat If we could actually get teams off the field on defense and create turnovers that would cure a lot of ills. If this team could actually run up the middle then maybe we can actually get some favorable down and distance IF THIS TEAM DIDNT WASTE TIMEOUTS GOT PLAYS ONTO THE FIELD ON TIME AND RAN PLAYS THAT PLAYED TO OUR STRENGTHS THEN MAYBE OUR QB WOULD LOOK BETTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreFL_Bills_Fan Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 This is a pointless post.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreFL_Bills_Fan Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 We have the QB in Edwards. We have far greater needs. I couldn't have said it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billnutinphoenix Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 I still believe in Trent. However, we need some more weapons. A stud TE would be nice. An Offensive Coordinator that actually has a playbook to win. We also need to be able to get pressure on the QB and maybe, just maybe a Defense as a whole who gets pissed if the other team gains a yard. ie: Steelers and Ravens. [/quote I think I fixed the problem...Kellen Winslow anyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 I think I fixed the problem...Kellen Winslow anyone... Expensive, big attitude and most importantly, injury prone. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StupidNation Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 Trent's close to top 10 now. He around #12. That's not bad. I don't know what more we expect. If you want a top 5 QB you have to get lucky or invest numerous years and 1st rounders before it happens. Look at Carson Palmer who was good before the injury. Trent is good enough if he can stay on the field and we get a legit threat at the #2 position with a decent TE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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