DreamOnDan Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 In recent draft history, the trend that sticks out to me the most is that of the 1st rd wrs taken, the tall ones are the ones to produce early. Most of the top wr that had size and speed developed into quite productive NFL players. The top wr taken is usually pretty good also. Threre is 5 sure 1st rd wr available this year. Possibly 7, despite what some analysts say. This reminds me of the Lee Evans class, with Deshaun Jackson being the Evans type playmaker. Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans, and Michael Clayton were all taken in the top 15 picks. I consider the Bills lucky this year, all of the teams at the top of the draft do not have a HUGE need at wr. After the Bills pick, there will be a bunch of teams that will take a wr in the 1st rd. Reason being, there is an unusual amount of productive and tall wr with speed and potential. WR that will definately be picked in rd 1 in no particular order: Limus Sweed, James Hardy, Malcolm Kelly, Deshaun Jackson, and Devin Thomas WR that will most likely be gone by the Bills 2nd rd pick: All of above mentioned, plus Early Doucet, Mario Manningham, Andre Caldwell are probaly gone by the Bills 2nd rd pick I think that the arguement to draft a wr in rd 1 this year is based on Who will be there when the next pick rolls around... Predicting the runs and getting players at the top of the runs is a great thing to keep in mind come draft day. My philosophy is that in every draft there is at least 4 great players drafted at every position. A lot of players are taken out of order in terms of how they pan out. That is bad drafting. We cannot have bad drafting in order to be successful short or long term. My opinion is that rare talents become superstars in this league. Physically gifted players like James Hardy http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile...rospect_ID=1246 Limus Sweed http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile...rospect_ID=1209 Malcolm Kelly http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile...rospect_ID=1211 will all become at the very least great #2 wr in the league instantly if given the opportunity. My personal favorite is James Hardy. He seems like the rare physical gifted type of athlete that I would covet at the wr position. His combination of size, speed, and strength gives him the ability to outmuscle defenders for jump balls. That is rare. He had 36 td in 33 games and dominated with nobody even close to as good as Trent or JP throwing the ball. I watched him play and he dominated Penn State. Very agile, can catch sideline routes, can use his massive frame to eat up slant routes on 3rd and 6. This is excactly what this organization needs right away. I agree that the lines are still in need of fortifying. The good news is that there aren't very many center, guard, DT positions listed in the top 75 players ranked. There are sure to be diamonds in the rough at these positions available in the 3-5 rds. TE is a position that has 4-6 good nfl talents that are mostly ranked to be drafted in rds 2-3. So if I'm running the show, I'm trying to draft the best players at the positions I need the most for success short term and long term. Short term getting taken care of first. Taking players at the top of the "run" is the best way to draft. You get your "guy" that way. The Bills have their Wr already. I'm not sure who it is, but they will get their "guy" and It will be in rd 1. The Bills needs also work out for them in this case. They technically can get the Best WR, a top 2-3 TE, the top C, the top FB, and a wealth of talent lies in the 5-6 rds at the LB position this year. We can't address all of our needs with just this draft. We have to get good players at positions of little depth early and often all while not reaching on a guy. It is easier than most people make it seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattypro89 Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 i would love to see a trade down then grab hardy. But he doesnt get the 11th pick. Hes even been projected to be there in the second so I say if you want him, you have to trade down or hope hes there in the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamOnDan Posted March 24, 2008 Author Share Posted March 24, 2008 i would love to see a trade down then grab hardy. But he doesnt get the 11th pick. Hes even been projected to be there in the second so I say if you want him, you have to trade down or hope hes there in the second. He hasn't been projected to go in the second by anybody since he blew the combine up. This guy is Plaxico Burress, but faster and less injury prone. I'd be very happy with Either Malcolm Kelly, Limus Sweed, or James Hardy. Its just that Hardy seems to me like the guy that everyone is gonna regret not drafting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBilliever Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 What is the #1 thing that the Bills need right now: A legitamite offense. What would help that offense the most right now: A legitamite #2 reciever. What pick do the Bills have in this draft to fix that glaring hole? #11. So... the logical thing to do would be pick the best wide reciever available at #11... "But, but... why not wait until the second round and see who's there!?" Why? The point of having a high draft pick is so that you can get whatever player you want and need that hasn't been taken yet. I don't think people understand that on this board.... I should've put this in the we will NOT draft a WR thread but I'm just running circles in my head here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRebound Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 I think the Bills will go WR in the 1st round but not at #11. Carolina, Chicago, and Detroit at 13, 14, and 15 all have extra 3rd rounders. Detroit might want to jump in front of Chicago to take Mendenhall. Chicago and Carolina might want to jump in front of Denver to take an Offensive Tackle. The Bills will then Take Devin Thomas at #14 or #15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Rob Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 For all the guys out there that say this player won't be picked at #11 I give you D Witner.If the Bills really want a player and don't feel he will still be there at the deal to move down they will take their guy. I look at it like this, the draft is what it is.A player could end up being a hall of famer out of the 6th round and the 11 pick could be a bust.So why not take the guy you know you want and not who the "draft experts"say you should take here.It is more about making sure the player you have targeted gets on your roster and not someone elses. Quick question.If these draft guru's were really that good at what they do why aren't they making picks for real teams?Quick answer.It's because they couldn't build a real team.If they could they would not be in the entertainment game. The only thing these guys are really good at is knowing everyones name and a few stats that someone on the other end of their earpiece is giving them.Sure they are very good at talking and doing the research that it takes to talk about players for 3 months on TV but that is as far as it goes.With as many mock drafts as there are out there it is real easy to figure out who may go where but the only men that matter are the guys that will be making the phone call to these players.The term reach only applies to the the persons opinion that is giving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 I should've put this in the we will NOT draft a WR thread but I'm just running circles in my head here. I agree 100%. No WR @11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 I agree 100%. No WR @11. But a WR once we get Dallas's 2 first round picks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 But a WR once we get Dallas's 2 first round picks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 What is the #1 thing that the Bills need right now: A legitamite offense. What would help that offense the most right now: A legitamite #2 reciever. What pick do the Bills have in this draft to fix that glaring hole? #11. So... the logical thing to do would be pick the best wide reciever available at #11... "But, but... why not wait until the second round and see who's there!?" Why? The point of having a high draft pick is so that you can get whatever player you want and need that hasn't been taken yet. I don't think people understand that on this board.... I should've put this in the we will NOT draft a WR thread but I'm just running circles in my head here. This is the smartest post I've seen regarding the #11 pick here at TSW. Bravo! The Buffalo Bills have the pick of the litter at their most dire position and fans here are disgruntled. Truly unbelievable. I guess fans feel the need to make things unnecessarily complicated. Hopefully the Bills brass will be employing the "keep it simple stupid" method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 This is the smartest post I've seen regarding the #11 pick here at TSW. Bravo! The Buffalo Bills have the pick of the litter at their most dire position and fans here are disgruntled. Truly unbelievable. I guess fans feel the need to make things unnecessarily complicated. Hopefully the Bills brass will be employing the "keep it simple stupid" method. Another No vote!!! Keep 'em coming folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombstone56 Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 In recent draft history, the trend that sticks out to me the most is that of the 1st rd wrs taken, the tall ones are the ones to produce early. Most of the top wr that had size and speed developed into quite productive NFL players. The top wr taken is usually pretty good also. Threre is 5 sure 1st rd wr available this year. Possibly 7, despite what some analysts say. This reminds me of the Lee Evans class, with Deshaun Jackson being the Evans type playmaker. Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans, and Michael Clayton were all taken in the top 15 picks. I consider the Bills lucky this year, all of the teams at the top of the draft do not have a HUGE need at wr. After the Bills pick, there will be a bunch of teams that will take a wr in the 1st rd. Reason being, there is an unusual amount of productive and tall wr with speed and potential. WR that will definately be picked in rd 1 in no particular order: Limus Sweed, James Hardy, Malcolm Kelly, Deshaun Jackson, and Devin Thomas WR that will most likely be gone by the Bills 2nd rd pick: All of above mentioned, plus Early Doucet, Mario Manningham, Andre Caldwell are probaly gone by the Bills 2nd rd pick I think that the arguement to draft a wr in rd 1 this year is based on Who will be there when the next pick rolls around... Predicting the runs and getting players at the top of the runs is a great thing to keep in mind come draft day. My philosophy is that in every draft there is at least 4 great players drafted at every position. A lot of players are taken out of order in terms of how they pan out. That is bad drafting. We cannot have bad drafting in order to be successful short or long term. My opinion is that rare talents become superstars in this league. Physically gifted players like James Hardy http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile...rospect_ID=1246 Limus Sweed http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile...rospect_ID=1209 Malcolm Kelly http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile...rospect_ID=1211 will all become at the very least great #2 wr in the league instantly if given the opportunity. My personal favorite is James Hardy. He seems like the rare physical gifted type of athlete that I would covet at the wr position. His combination of size, speed, and strength gives him the ability to outmuscle defenders for jump balls. That is rare. He had 36 td in 33 games and dominated with nobody even close to as good as Trent or JP throwing the ball. I watched him play and he dominated Penn State. Very agile, can catch sideline routes, can use his massive frame to eat up slant routes on 3rd and 6. This is excactly what this organization needs right away. I agree that the lines are still in need of fortifying. The good news is that there aren't very many center, guard, DT positions listed in the top 75 players ranked. There are sure to be diamonds in the rough at these positions available in the 3-5 rds. TE is a position that has 4-6 good nfl talents that are mostly ranked to be drafted in rds 2-3. So if I'm running the show, I'm trying to draft the best players at the positions I need the most for success short term and long term. Short term getting taken care of first. Taking players at the top of the "run" is the best way to draft. You get your "guy" that way. The Bills have their Wr already. I'm not sure who it is, but they will get their "guy" and It will be in rd 1. The Bills needs also work out for them in this case. They technically can get the Best WR, a top 2-3 TE, the top C, the top FB, and a wealth of talent lies in the 5-6 rds at the LB position this year. We can't address all of our needs with just this draft. We have to get good players at positions of little depth early and often all while not reaching on a guy. It is easier than most people make it seem. the bills recent aqusitions of te s and cb s have allowed them to draft just about anywhere ... while in my opinion getting a receieving threat at te is a prioity even more than a number 2 at wr i doubt they will reach in this draft the position is deep yet the suspicions that scouts share of players ability do increase as the rounds do,, ,all that being said i do think they re leaving the door open in each round as to who they pick no despiration picks,, my wish list is simple ,,,,,,,, limas sweed 1st ,, martellus bennett 2nd,, red bryant 3rd...,kellen davis 4th,,trae williams 5th, schmidt 6th .. dustin wallace 7th ,,,, i like the threats added to the offense and depth to defense, i wouldnt be disapointed though if martin rucker or jerod mayo or connor somehow fell into the mix ,, i doubt losman goes anywhere,, this is a paralell to kemp ,lamonica , safe mr kemp..balsy mr lamonica.edwards is like a piece of china ,, real pretty till it hits the dirt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamOnDan Posted March 24, 2008 Author Share Posted March 24, 2008 the bills recent aqusitions of te s and cb s have allowed them to draft just about anywhere ... while in my opinion getting a receieving threat at te is a prioity even more than a number 2 at wr i doubt they will reach in this draft the position is deep yet the suspicions that scouts share of players ability do increase as the rounds do,, ,all that being said i do think they re leaving the door open in each round as to who they pick no despiration picks,, my wish list is simple ,,,,,,,, limas sweed 1st ,, martellus bennett 2nd,, red bryant 3rd...,kellen davis 4th,,trae williams 5th, schmidt 6th .. dustin wallace 7th ,,,, i like the threats added to the offense and depth to defense, i wouldnt be disapointed though if martin rucker or jerod mayo or connor somehow fell into the mix ,, i doubt losman goes anywhere,, this is a paralell to kemp ,lamonica , safe mr kemp..balsy mr lamonica.edwards is like a piece of china ,, real pretty till it hits the dirt.. Agreed, I like that draft also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattypro89 Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 What is the #1 thing that the Bills need right now: A legitamite offense. What would help that offense the most right now: A legitamite #2 reciever. What pick do the Bills have in this draft to fix that glaring hole? #11. So... the logical thing to do would be pick the best wide reciever available at #11... "But, but... why not wait until the second round and see who's there!?" Why? The point of having a high draft pick is so that you can get whatever player you want and need that hasn't been taken yet. I don't think people understand that on this board.... I should've put this in the we will NOT draft a WR thread but I'm just running circles in my head here. i can see your argument. And I am one to tend to agree. I say screw trying to get the most value for your pic, just get the player you need. But it seems a trade down may be a viable option to get another first day pick and still get the WR we want later in the first. Because there are so many talented WRs and not many warly picking teams need them, it should be possible to get one later. But i would not mind at all taking Hardy ( after seeing him absolutely embarrass Justin King of PSU, a highly rated corner in the draft) at the number 11 spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBilliever Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 i can see your argument. And I am one to tend to agree. I say screw trying to get the most value for your pic, just get the player you need. But it seems a trade down may be a viable option to get another first day pick and still get the WR we want later in the first. Because there are so many talented WRs and not many warly picking teams need them, it should be possible to get one later. But i would not mind at all taking Hardy ( after seeing him absolutely embarrass Justin King of PSU, a highly rated corner in the draft) at the number 11 spot. Well said. I billieve that in our position we most certainly want to stock-pile early round picks in order to get quality starters/backups that can immediately take the field. The way I see it is, we have a solid O-Line, a stable quarterback, two great running backs and a solid backup, a great #1 reciever and 2 great slot recievers, a solid D-Line, great LB corp, great safeties, and a good depth at corner. This leaves our glaring weaknesses at #2 WR, recieving TE, FB, and Corner. A lot of people think we need a DE. I may agree for depth/rotational purposes, but that's it, we don't need a bonafide #1 DE causing havoc in the $ we've already shelled out to our defensive ends. Early on? Most certainly, but not above the third round IMO. I think that the only two positions that could be feasible at #11 are WR and Corner, the former being the most glaring. In this scenario, then you most certainly take either TE or WR/CB off the board in round two, and fill depth holes at DT, DE, LB, OL, and FB. I just don't like the idea of waiting it out until the second and see who "falls" to us. Falling isn't good, rising is. I, personally, see Derek Schouman as a great candidate for our FB situation, since he's not the size of a prototypical TE but has the hands and can push blockers out of the way. Just my 2 cents... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obie_wan Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 This is the smartest post I've seen regarding the #11 pick here at TSW. Bravo! The Buffalo Bills have the pick of the litter at their most dire position and fans here are disgruntled. Truly unbelievable. I guess fans feel the need to make things unnecessarily complicated. Hopefully the Bills brass will be employing the "keep it simple stupid" method. Stupid is what it would be to blindly draft an inferior player solely by need when other better playmakers at harder to fill positions are also available. Especailly when WRs capable of filling the #2 WR slot will be available in the 2nd round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 Especailly when WRs capable of filling the #2 WR slot will be available in the 2nd round Not a chance. Whoever is leftover by the time we pick in the 2nd will NOT be capable of filling that WR spot. Plan on another 30th ranked offense if the Bills don't go WR in the first. Also plan on another coaching staff because there's no way Jauron stays around in 2009 after yet another dreadful touchdownless season in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 I got my draft magazines and after reading all of it i want Malcolm Kelly is he is truely healthy. If hes not i want Devin Thomas. I keep reading that harding isnt physical at all which is what we need. Ill pass. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 Not a chance. Whoever is leftover by the time we pick in the 2nd will NOT be capable of filling that WR spot. Plan on another 30th ranked offense if the Bills don't go WR in the first. Also plan on another coaching staff because there's no way Jauron stays around in 2009 after yet another dreadful touchdownless season in 2008. Strongly agree. By our RD#2 pick, these are gone: 1Devin Thomas - 3Malcolm Kelly - 2DeSean Jackson - 4Limas Sweed - 5James Hardy - 6Early Doucet - Here's what's left of WR's on my Value Board for Round 2: 7Manningham - 8Caldwell - 9Lavelle Hawkins - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamOnDan Posted March 25, 2008 Author Share Posted March 25, 2008 Strongly agree. By our RD#2 pick, these are gone: 1Devin Thomas - 3Malcolm Kelly - 2DeSean Jackson - 4Limas Sweed - 5James Hardy - 6Early Doucet - Here's what's left of WR's on my Value Board for Round 2: 7Manningham - 8Caldwell - 9Lavelle Hawkins - Great analysis. as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts