Pos as fast or faster than Willis?

[Kelly the Dog]

Willis had a complete workout at the Combine. He ran two 40s in 4.51 and 4.53, the short shuttle in 4.46 and the cone drill in 7.23. He also had a 35-inch vertical jump, a 9-foot-11 long jump and did 21 bench presses. Willis worked out again on March 20 at Mississippi's Pro Day and ran 4.57 and 4.38 at a weight of 237 pounds.

 

Pos had a complete workout at the Combine where he ran his 40s in 4.70 and 4.71. He also had a 37-inch vertical jump, a 9-foot-8 long jump, ran 4.20 in the short shuttle, 6.94 in the cone drill and did 22 lifts. He had 33-inch arms. At Penn State's Pro Day, he ran 4.61 and 4.67 in the 40.

 

Looks like Pos is a lot faster in short runs and changing direction than Willis.

[Sketch Soland]

Willis had a complete workout at the Combine. He ran two 40s in 4.51 and 4.53, the short shuttle in 4.46 and the cone drill in 7.23. He also had a 35-inch vertical jump, a 9-foot-11 long jump and did 21 bench presses. Willis worked out again on March 20 at Mississippi's Pro Day and ran 4.57 and 4.38 at a weight of 237 pounds.

 

Pos had a complete workout at the Combine where he ran his 40s in 4.70 and 4.71. He also had a 37-inch vertical jump, a 9-foot-8 long jump, ran 4.20 in the short shuttle, 6.94 in the cone drill and did 22 lifts. He had 33-inch arms. At Penn State's Pro Day, he ran 4.61 and 4.67 in the 40.

 

Looks like Pos is a lot faster in short runs and changing direction than Willis.

 

This is and has been far and away the best argument for Pos over Willis. Funny that most Pos fanbois don't even mention this (or know it)

[DrDawkinstein]

id be happy with either

[Fewell733]

This is a good selling point for Poz. But watch the highlights and its clear that Willis plays bigger, can shed blocks better, and has the deep speed necessary to play MLB in the cover-2.

 

Poz is a very solid player, but he often looks small out there, and I seriously question whether he can cover the deep part of the field on passing downs as a MLB in our defense. Obviously if he's the pick, I trust our scouts and they certainly know more than I. But if it were me, I'd take Willis over him.

[Kelly the Dog]

This is a good selling point for Poz. But watch the highlights and its clear that Willis plays bigger, can shed blocks better, and has the deep speed necessary to play MLB in the cover-2.

 

Poz is a very solid player, but he often looks small out there, and I seriously question whether he can cover the deep part of the field on passing downs as a MLB in our defense. Obviously if he's the pick, I trust our scouts and they certainly know more than I. But if it were me, I'd take Willis over him.

Not really making a statement about who is better. I think there are very likely things that Willis does better and an equal number of things that Pos does better. I suppose that if I had a clear choice of A or B, I may take Willis. But the idea of Willis at 12 or Pos at 22 is a completely different question, and in that case, I may take Pos. The real point of the post is just to accentuate to not get too enamored with Willis' 40 time and think he is much faster than comparable players. He also lost 5 pounds to run that 40, and maybe he wouldn't "play so much bigger" at the lesser weight he needed to chop .2 off his 40.

[Snorom]

This tells me Poz has quicker reactions, but is a tad slower in closing speed.

 

But IMO football speed is more of a reaction then sprint. Especially from a D or LB stand point

[Fewell733]

Not really making a statement about who is better. I think there are very likely things that Willis does better and an equal number of things that Pos does better. I suppose that if I had a clear choice of A or B, I may take Willis. But the idea of Willis at 12 or Pos at 22 is a completely different question, and in that case, I may take Pos. The real point of the post is just to accentuate to not get too enamored with Willis' 40 time and think he is much faster than comparable players. He also lost 5 pounds to run that 40, and maybe he wouldn't "play so much bigger" at the lesser weight he needed to chop .2 off his 40.

 

in that case, I agree.

[Rubes]

Honestly, I think I'd be happy with either one. Either way we get one hell of a linebacker, and that's what we need.

 

It's interesting to think about a linebacking core of Ellison, Crowell, and Poz/Willis. Undersized, maybe, but fast as hell.

[Brandon]

Not really making a statement about who is better. I think there are very likely things that Willis does better and an equal number of things that Pos does better. I suppose that if I had a clear choice of A or B, I may take Willis. But the idea of Willis at 12 or Pos at 22 is a completely different question, and in that case, I may take Pos. The real point of the post is just to accentuate to not get too enamored with Willis' 40 time and think he is much faster than comparable players. He also lost 5 pounds to run that 40, and maybe he wouldn't "play so much bigger" at the lesser weight he needed to chop .2 off his 40.

 

Its not just the weight loss. I think a lot of people don't realize that the scouts adjust these 40 times from Pro Days based upon the conditions and the track surface. So while a team may have officially clocked Patrick Willis at 4.38 at his Pro Day, it may have officially been recorded as a 4.45-4.50 based on the track surface combined with his weight loss.

 

The 40 times don't mean jack, anyway. The 10 and 20 yard components of the 40 are FAR more relevant than the 40 overall. Posluszny's combine times there were 1.56 and 2.73, respectively. That, along with the overall time, tells me that he may not have great top end speed, but he hits that top speed very quickly. The shuttle, cone drill, vertical and broad jumps all seem to support the idea that he has a very good burst from a standstill.

 

Willis scored well in both the 10 (1.53) and 20 (2.62) components, as expected from someone who posted a 4.51 at the combine.

[Kelly the Dog]

Its not just the weight loss. I think a lot of people don't realize that the scouts adjust these 40 times from Pro Days based upon the conditions and the track surface. So while a team may have officially clocked Patrick Willis at 4.38 at his Pro Day, it may have officially been recorded as a 4.45-4.50 based on the track surface combined with his weight loss.

 

The 40 times don't mean jack, anyway. The 10 and 20 yard components of the 40 are FAR more relevant than the 40 overall. Posluszny's combine times there were 1.56 and 2.73, respectively. That, along with the overall time, tells me that he may not have great top end speed, but he hits that top speed very quickly. The shuttle, cone drill, vertical and broad jumps all seem to support the idea that he has a very good burst from a standstill.

 

Willis scored well in both the 10 (1.53) and 20 (2.62) components, as expected from someone who posted a 4.51 at the combine.

Right. So, in other words, 60-70 plays a game, Pos is as fast or faster than Willis. 0-5 plays a game, Willis is faster.

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

Combine and pro day numbers are nice and all, and for the most part I've tended to stay away from the willis vs poz arguments. Mostly because I haven't really seen Willis play much. From what I have seen I've liked him more then what I've seen from poz. I think Willis fills holes better and noticed that he tends to get dragged less by rb's and can disengage from blocks better. As Well as being more of a sure wrap up and explosion tackler then from what I've seen of Poz. Overall I think he has work to do in coverage but it can be coached.

 

 

Poz's play to me last season seemed to slip. While he had similar stats to the 05 season he just seemed a half beat slow in reacting to plays, and at best seemed like a marginal late 1st rd talent, which is more of a reflection towards a weak lb class then poz's talent. Poz seems to have a good feel for the game, but his coverage ability despite his good showing of short area speed leaves something to be desired. At 12 I'd be dissapointed with poz feeling he's poor value that high, and would much rather Jon Beason who imo is better and reminds me a lot of DJ Williams.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

Not really making a statement about who is better. I think there are very likely things that Willis does better and an equal number of things that Pos does better. I suppose that if I had a clear choice of A or B, I may take Willis. But the idea of Willis at 12 or Pos at 22 is a completely different question, and in that case, I may take Pos. The real point of the post is just to accentuate to not get too enamored with Willis' 40 time and think he is much faster than comparable players. He also lost 5 pounds to run that 40, and maybe he wouldn't "play so much bigger" at the lesser weight he needed to chop .2 off his 40.

 

Those times actually make me think more about Willis than Pos, and I don't mean that in a good way. I already like Pos a lot, and would be fine with him at 12, but Willis was not only less agile than Pos, he was less agile than LOTS of the LBs that were tested. An LB with great straight-line speed, but limited agility, makes me very nevous, especially because that's just the kind of package that can take you a long way in college but make you a bust in the NFL.

 

I would take Pos straight up over Willis at 12 or anywhere else. I like a lot of things about Willis, but I'd be more nervous if we drafted him (not totally pessimistic, just nervous) than if we drafted Pos.

 

My personal semi-realistic board (i.e., no Johnson or Thomas) looks like this:

 

Peterson (trade up with AZ or Wash)

Branch

Pos

Okoye

Lynch

Beason

Willis

 

I know there aren't too many around here who would agree with that board. I guess we'll see in a few years.

[Brandon]

Right. So, in other words, 60-70 plays a game, Pos is as fast or faster than Willis. 0-5 plays a game, Willis is faster.

 

Yep. I also think that you really have to consider the ability to read the play quickly and react to it as well. That's extremely hard to judge, but it can easily make up for a LOT of speed deficiencies and is an important attribute in a LB, perhaps the most important. It can also completely negate any advantage a player might have in terms of speed and athleticism if he can't do it. Note that I'm not aiming that at Willis, but its just an observation about the LB position in general.

[Kelly the Dog]

Combine and pro day numbers are nice and all, and for the most part I've tended to stay away from the willis vs poz arguments. Mostly because I haven't really seen Willis play much. From what I have seen I've liked him more then what I've seen from poz. I think Willis fills holes better and noticed that he tends to get dragged less by rb's and can disengage from blocks better. As Well as being more of a sure wrap up and explosion tackler then from what I've seen of Poz. Overall I think he has work to do in coverage but it can be coached.

Poz's play to me last season seemed to slip. While he had similar stats to the 05 season he just seemed a half beat slow in reacting to plays, and at best seemed like a marginal late 1st rd talent, which is more of a reflection towards a weak lb class then poz's talent. Poz seems to have a good feel for the game, but his coverage ability despite his good showing of short area speed leaves something to be desired. At 12 I'd be dissapointed with poz feeling he's poor value that high, and would much rather Jon Beason who imo is better and reminds me a lot of DJ Williams.

I am not sure of this, it's just something I read recently from a somewhat reliable source. But the gist of it was this: In the first half of the season last year, Pos was noticeably slower, due to the change of position as well as the knee, and knee brace. Halfway through the year as he got more healthy, more used to the position, and changed to a smaller brace he got significantly faster. By the end of the year he was his old self and playing as well as he ever did. I am not sure again, if this is true but it makes sense. And I highly doubt whether just looking at stats would prove or disprove it. I'd like to hear what Penn State fans or people that have actually and honestly followed him close felt about this.

[Brandon]

Those times actually make me think more about Willis than Pos, and I don't mean that in a good way. I already like Pos a lot, and would be fine with him at 12, but Willis was not only less agile than Pos, he was less agile than LOTS of the LBs that were tested. An LB with great straight-line speed, but limited agility, makes me very nevous, especially because that's just the kind of package that can take you a long way in college but make you a bust in the NFL.

 

I would take Pos straight up over Willis at 12 or anywhere else. I like a lot of things about Willis, but I'd be more nervous if we drafted him (not totally pessimistic, just nervous) than if we drafted Pos.

 

My personal semi-realistic board (i.e., no Johnson or Thomas) looks like this:

 

Peterson (trade up with AZ or Wash)

Branch

Pos

Okoye

Lynch

Beason

Willis

 

I know there aren't too many around here who would agree with that board. I guess we'll see in a few years.

 

I think you also have to be careful taking it to the other extreme, however, by placing too much emphasis on one or two poor times. The shuttle and cone drills, in particular, are a little bit more technique-based than the others, and poor technique can adversely affect scores.

 

As an example, a lot of fans try to use a poor short shuttle time to bash Marshawn Lynch, but his 10, 20, and 40 yard times, as well as his cone drill, broad jump and vertical jump are very comparable to those posted by Adrian Peterson (and Peterson in fact ran a somewhat weak shuttle time as well, 4.40). If I had to guess, neither Peterson or Lynch ran that short shuttle with good technique, perhaps over-running the mark or slipping, and it cost them time. Their other scores compare favorably to anyone at the combine and are not indicative of a player who is unathletic. So in this case, the outlier, the poor shuttle, probably should be discarded.

[2003Contenders]

This is all academic anyway, as I have a pretty strong feeling that Willis will be well off the board before we pick at 12.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

I think you also have to be careful taking it to the other extreme, however, by placing too much emphasis on one or two poor times. The shuttle and cone drills, in particular, are a little bit more technique-based than the others, and poor technique can adversely affect scores.

 

As an example, a lot of fans try to use a poor short shuttle time to bash Marshawn Lynch, but his 10, 20, and 40 yard times, as well as his cone drill, broad jump and vertical jump are very comparable to those posted by Adrian Peterson (and Peterson in fact ran a somewhat weak shuttle time as well, 4.40). If I had to guess, neither Peterson or Lynch ran that short shuttle with good technique, perhaps over-running the mark or slipping, and it cost them time. Their other scores compare favorably to anyone at the combine and are not indicative of a player who is unathletic. So in this case, the outlier, the poor shuttle, probably should be discarded.

 

That's a good point. I don't pretend to know how good Willis will or won't be. If we draft him, I'll cross my fingers and join his fan club. Those times just make me a bit nervous, because they seem so far behind so many people. He can't be the only guy with poor technique.

 

That being said, the most important speed factor for LBs in particular is instinct and play recognition. If I run the 40 a tenth of a second faster than you, but you diagnose plays half a second faster than me, you are a hell of a lot "faster" than I am on the football field. Which is another reason I like Pos a bit better than Willis, since everyone says Pos's LB instincts are second to none.

[Pyrite Gal]

I think one thing which may speak to going after Poz to be a Bill rather than going after Willis is that based on what folks are estimating (its tough to go by what teams are saying because if they are smart they are lying) the Bills better pick Willis at 12 (if he drops to them because if they really want him they better trade up) but if the Bills are targetting Poz they should be able to trade into the teens with their pick and still get him and potentially they can trade into the lower 20s and still get him.

 

It would seem to me that IF the Bills make the judgment that Poz can start for us at SLB, that this team is better in the 07 season with an LB crew of Poz at Sam, Crowell at Mike and Ellison at Will and also have some additional seconds and/or thirds for the trade down (if they can make a deal) than they are with a trio of Ellison, Crowell, and Willis.

 

We simply will have to find two LBs to replace our starters at LB last season and likely will also need to draft two RBs as I only see A-Train and Cieslak as being on the final roster to fill what likely will be 5 RB jobs (I think Shaud does not perform well enough to be our 3rd down back as he is no threat to take it to the house on plays he is in and I think Jackson has gotten some nice raves, but clearly he is nothing anyone should count upon).

 

If we were to secure an extra first day pick or two then I think we would be in a position to select two the RBs who are generally viewed as first day talent (Pittman, Booker, Bush, Irons and maybe Hunt) and with these players and A-Train (and maybe Turner) and there is a reasonable chance that one of these players will step up and deserve a #1 RB slot or make the RBBC effort have a chance of succeeding.

 

In addition, we can probably use some more depth at LB and while there is no one among the first day choices who would be a viable starter, a pick like Davis may add some depth and ST chops that help this team.

 

My sense is that everything will doubtfully work out just as we plan it (injury is always a concern and even top notch picks eventually can simply fail to produce as rookies (look at the Eric Moulds example or the Larry Johnson example if you are thinking about bonafide Pro Bowl level players who simply sucked in terms of production their first two years).

 

I think the Bills are better faster if they continue to emphasize competition. As the lead post in this thread shows there is at least some thinking out there based on objective data (rather than mere fact-free opinion) that Pos and Willis are comparable (I actually disagree with this and think Willis is clearly better than Poz but I do not see Willis as being an elite talent (which I define as a consensus top 10 pick) such as AJ Hawk was at LB last year.

 

I think the Bills can produce more by relying on competition rather than relying on any of the players who MIGHT drop to us at #12.

[WVUFootball29]

Willis had a complete workout at the Combine. He ran two 40s in 4.51 and 4.53, the short shuttle in 4.46 and the cone drill in 7.23. He also had a 35-inch vertical jump, a 9-foot-11 long jump and did 21 bench presses. Willis worked out again on March 20 at Mississippi's Pro Day and ran 4.57 and 4.38 at a weight of 237 pounds.

 

Pos had a complete workout at the Combine where he ran his 40s in 4.70 and 4.71. He also had a 37-inch vertical jump, a 9-foot-8 long jump, ran 4.20 in the short shuttle, 6.94 in the cone drill and did 22 lifts. He had 33-inch arms. At Penn State's Pro Day, he ran 4.61 and 4.67 in the 40.

 

Looks like Pos is a lot faster in short runs and changing direction than Willis.

 

OMG there is someone else on this board that knows what the short shuttle and cone drills measure.

 

Good observation Kelly. Personally I'd be happy with either as I think they would fill a hole better than Lynch at the 12 spot in the draft

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

[quote name='Last Guy on the Bench' date='Apr 17 2007, 02:59 PM' post='973569'field. Which is another reason I like Pos a bit better than Willis, since everyone says Pos's LB instincts are second to none.

Everyone ? Other than this board, I haven't seen anyone rate him higher or as high as Willis ? So even though "EVERYONE" rates his instincts second to none they still have Willis higher.