Mikie2times Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 The Bills have converted 19 of 47 3rd downs of 4, 5, and 6 yards this season, a 40.4% clip. So at the minimum Lindell needed to have a 40% shot at making that kick. It's more likely around 50% when you consider Tennessee still had ample time to counter the FG, with the wind, and a guy that's already made a 60 yard game winner. For his career RL is 12-19 from 50 yards out a 63.2% clip. The wind easily took 5 yards off the ball, so that's why I have his 50 yard numbers instead of his 40 yard numbers. If the wind took more then 9 yards off the ball (more then possible) it would equal Lindell’s career long. You can see how close the decision actually was for Jauron. I thought he made the right one at the time, and still do after looking at the probabilities. Edit: I did some more exact probability work below. It appears the bottom line on Lindell’s kick had to be about 35% or better for it to make it a 50/50 proposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 The Bills haveFor the people who wanted a FG attempt Lindell needed atleast a 60% shot or more at hitting the FG to make it worth while. You could even argue it needed to be higher then that. Afterall the titans still had ample time to counter with the wind, and a guy who's already made a 60 yard game winner this season. A 878140[/snapback] Senior moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stussy109 Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 If they sent him out there to kick the ball, it was a guaranteed loss. I watched all the pregame kicking, he has less than 5% chance of hitting that, the ball would have been at least 5 yards short. He kickjed about 4 that i saw from that distance and not one of them had the range for all you people who were disgusted with the 4th and 5 call. A FG had zero chance, lindell said it himself without saying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 26, 2006 Author Share Posted December 26, 2006 Senior moment? 878142[/snapback] Haha, I hit submit when I was changing a thought around. Please go back and read it again. Should make a little more sense. Edit- Damn I'm stupid right now, all my math was f'ed up in the correction post! It's fixed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 26, 2006 Author Share Posted December 26, 2006 Here’s another angle to this thread which would be the correct way to look at the probabilities. Either call would require two variables for the Bills to win. If you kick the FG, you take the probability of making the kick, and multiply it by the probability of Buffalo stopping a TEN FG. If we go for it you figure out the probability of converting on fourth down, then the odds of Lindell later making a shorter FG. Here’s a breakdown of what that could look like with different odds. Go for the FG with the Bills having a 95% chance at stopping Tennessee the next drive Kick% Stop% Win% 10%----- 95%------ .0095 20%------95%------.190 30%------95%-------.285 40%------95%------- .380 50%------95%-------.475 60%------95%-------.570 Or Go for the FG with the Bills having a 90% chance at stopping Tennessee the next drive Kick% Stop% Win% 10%----- 90%------ .009 20%------90%------.180 30%------90%-------.270 40%------90%------- .360 50%------90%-------.450 60%------90%-------.540 Or Go for the First down, and make a shorter FG, diffrent odds of that FG are listed. Go for the First down FIRST%---FG%-----WIN% 40.4%------70%------.283 40.4%------75%------.303 40.4%------80%------.323 40.4%------85%------.343 40.4%------90%------.364 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acantha Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 Perhaps the most important aspect of this thread...Jauron didn't get to read it while making his decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 26, 2006 Author Share Posted December 26, 2006 Perhaps the most important aspect of this thread...Jauron didn't get to read it while making his decision. 878162[/snapback] I still support his decision. Let me also say Jauron knew all this stuff before the decision was made. As fan I guessed we converted around 40% the last two days in these 3rd/4th and short situations. Jauron's a freaking Ivy Leaguer. If a random fan could guess the probabilities that closely I'm sure he had it within a 2-3% of the actual odds in his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acantha Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 I still support his decision. Let me also say Jauron knew all this stuff before the decision was made. As fan I guessed we converted around 40% the last two days in these 3rd/4th and short situations. Jauron's a freaking Ivy Leaguer. If a random fan could guess the probabilities that closely I'm sure he had it within a 2-3% of the actual odds in his head. 878163[/snapback] I was just kidding. I agree with the decision not to kick, but like most others my big problem comes with the 3rd and 4th down plays that were called, and the confusion on the sideline and field on 4th down. At very best, it showed very little discipline/coordination between himself and his assistant coaches and players. At worst, it was a complete cluster. That said, I really like having Jauron as the coach. I think he blew that drive, but I also think he is a very solid coach who will LEARN from his mistake, unlike our last coach who seemed to take great satisfaction doing the same stupid things over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitner20 Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 That said, I really like having Jauron as the coach. I think he blew that drive, but I also think he is a very solid coach who will LEARN from his mistake, unlike our last coach who seemed to take great satisfaction doing the same stupid things over and over again. 878172[/snapback] I totally agree. I don't blame him for not kicking the FG, but he definetly ruined the drive. Losman in shutgun on 3rd down? And then on 4th down the entire offense was hectic and Lindell didn't know wtf was going on, Jauron lost control and i think got clueless for a few minutes too. I think he's done a great job and Mike Ditka even said on espnews that he would never second doubt Jauron on anything, he said that Jauron is one of the smartest guys in football... so i definetly don't disagree with him on not kicking, but i think he could have handled the last drive a bit better and had the offense more ready for the final 2 plays to get the 5 yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 26, 2006 Author Share Posted December 26, 2006 I was just kidding. I agree with the decision not to kick, but like most others my big problem comes with the 3rd and 4th down plays that were called, and the confusion on the sideline and field on 4th down. At very best, it showed very little discipline/coordination between himself and his assistant coaches and players. At worst, it was a complete cluster. That said, I really like having Jauron as the coach. I think he blew that drive, but I also think he is a very solid coach who will LEARN from his mistake, unlike our last coach who seemed to take great satisfaction doing the same stupid things over and over again. 878172[/snapback] Couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 If they sent him out there to kick the ball, it was a guaranteed loss. I watched all the pregame kicking, he has less than 5% chance of hitting that, the ball would have been at least 5 yards short. He kickjed about 4 that i saw from that distance and not one of them had the range for all you people who were disgusted with the 4th and 5 call. A FG had zero chance, lindell said it himself without saying it. 878144[/snapback] But then why start and send the FG unit out, call them back... Only to create a confused and rushed O play on 4th? Then heave it on a "Hail Mary" into that same wind... As much as JP has been "growing" on me lately... He really botched that play, sure he was put into a rushed situation... JP had better odds if he just "hoofed" it and attempted to get the five himself... I would respect him more today, even if he didn't make it. Like I said... JP is growing on me... Yet, I am still very much queazy about him leading this team. I so want to be proved wrong in the coming years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 I agree, don't kick. Now, can someone explain why on 4th and 3 with your season on the line, you run a five-step drop and send your receivers on streaks to the endzone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frogger Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 not sure if this has been said before, I am too lazy to look and I wasn't here to look monday, but if there ever was a better time to use that fake field goal with Peters getting the shovel pass that was it. The play call is what bothered me, we needed 5 yards not a TD. Josh reed has made a living the last few weeks getting 5 yard first downs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 I agree, don't kick. Now, can someone explain why on 4th and 3 with your season on the line, you run a five-step drop and send your receivers on streaks to the endzone? 878237[/snapback] Because it was a fire drill out there... The O had to come back on after the Bills coaching staff sent the FG unit out, then called them back in so they could go for the first. Was there even a play called?... With the play clock winding down and in fear that they might not get it off... JP probably said "HIKE!" and everybody did their own thing! When on the sandlot, what does everybody do? Go deep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 not sure if this has been said before, I am too lazy to look and I wasn't here to look monday, but if there ever was a better time to use that fake field goal with Peters getting the shovel pass that was it. The play call is what bothered me, we needed 5 yards not a TD. Josh reed has made a living the last few weeks getting 5 yard first downs 878238[/snapback] So true... The way they had it going with the FG unit going out right away... Going for it doesn't bother me... It is just they made the decision to go for the FG first... There is no turning back at that point. They hesitated and changed plans while the play clock was winding down... That is what did them in! So take into consideration that and a FG try really had better odds. The way they changed their mind is what doomed everything, IMO. Where is George W. Bush when you need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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