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Playoff Thread


JimBob2232

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My take at the playoff picture:

Cliff Notes: Win and we are in, Lose just 1 and we have a reasonable chance.

 

At this moment, this is the race for the Wildcard/Division Leaders

 

AFC East: New England

AFC North: Baltimore

AFC South: Indianapolis

AFC West: San Diego

 

Race for Wild Card

Denver 7-4

Kansas City 7-4

NY Jets 6-5

Cincinatti 6-5

Jacksonville 6-5

Buffalo 5-6

Miami 5-6

Pittsburgh 4-7

Tennesee 4-7

 

Now, obviously Buffalo needs to win out for our best chance. A loss to SD would not end our dreams, but it would make it alot tougher. Losing one game puts us at 7-5 in the AFC, which gives us a prayer for tiebreakers. Lets review the remaining games

 

Denver (7-4) - All accounts say Denver is going to go with their rookie QB. Games remaining on their schedule include Seattle, San Diego, Arizona, Cincinatti and San Franciscio. An uphill battle with a rookie QB to say the least. Denver holds many tiebreakers due to a 7-3 AFC record. 3 wins, or 2 wins, including a win over either San Diego or Cincinatti, and they are in.

 

Kansas City (7-4) - Games left include Cleveland, Baltimore, San Diego, Oakland, and Jacksonville. Kansas City is only 3-4 in conference currently, so they likely need 10 wins to get in. Do not hold any significant H2H tiebreakers hand likely need to to win 3 of the remaining 5 games to get in.

 

New York Jets (6-5) - Games Remaining include Green Bay, Buffalo, Minnesota, Miami and Oakland. Would have H2H tiebreaker over miami if they win again in December, but it would likely be irrelavent as miami would then be (at best) 9-7 with a bad AFC record. Likely need to go 4-1 to make the playoffs. 3 wins is possible assuming they win all 3 AFC games left on their schedule.

 

Cincinatti (6-5) - Left for dead 2 weeks ago, they are now in the thick of the playoff hunt. Still have Baltimore, Oakland, Indianapolis, Denver and Pittsburgh left on the calender. 4-3 in conference right now, its questionable whether 3 wins will do it for them. But 4 wins is going to be hard to get with those opponents. Hold a head to head advantage over Kansas City.

 

Jacksonville (6-5) 3-4 in conference, still have Miami, Indianapolis, Tennessee, New England and Kansas City left. Likely need to go 4-1 over that stretch to get in. Hold H2H tiebreaker over the Jets and Tennessee. 9-7 just wont do it for this club. Would lose an AFC tiebreaker to most other 9-7 clubs. Got their work cut out for them.

 

Buffalo (5-6) 3-4 in conference, have San Diego, Jets, Miami, Tennesse and Baltimore on the schedule. With 1 loss in the last 5 weeks, they would be 7-5 in conference and could squeak in with a 9-7 record with a tiebreaker over the right teams. Best scenario, win out and they are likely in. Hold head to head tiebreakers over Jacksonville & Miami (if they win in December). I detail the 9-7 tiebreakers below

 

Miami (5-6) - A miserable 2-5 vs. AFC opponents means they will likely need to win out to make the playoffs. Hold H2H tiebreaker over Kansas City. Games remaining Jacksonville, New England, Buffalo, Jets, and Colts. Good Luck.

 

Pittsburgh and Tennessee realistically are out of it. Both need to win out to have a prayer, and both have very difficult schedules, and have bad AFC conference records.

 

For Buffalo:

Finish 10-6 and we are pretty much in. We would have the H2H over Jacksonville if they are 10-6, same with the Jets. Would have a better in conference record than Kansas City, would win a tiebreaker over Denver (unless they beat both cincinatti and San Diego in which case they win the tiebreaker), would also knock out Miami by beating them. Cincinatti would need more review as we would both be 10-6 and would both be 8-4 in conference. Need to resort to common games, which is too much work for me right now. But all this said, there are 2 wildcard slots available, so chances are good we get one if we are 10-6. The only way we dont make it is if Cincinatti and Denver are both 10-6 and we lose the common opponents tiebreaker.

 

Now, if we lose 1 game, and finish 9-7, this is where it gets really tough.

Our AFC conference record would be 7-5. Respectable, but not outstanding. Might depend to whom this loss comes against.

 

If the below teams finished 9-7, as well as Buffalo, who would win the tiebreaker?

(Records shown are current AFC records)

Denver - (7-3) - Only 2 AFC games left. SD and Cincinatti. Win one of them and they hold the tiebreaker over us. Lose both, and it goes to common opponents.

Kansas City (3-4) - Only AFC opponents left for KC. If KC finishes 9-7 we would win the tiebreaker because they won just 2 of their last 5 games and thus be a dismal 5-7 in conference.

Jets (5-4) - If our loss is to the Jets, the Jets win the H2H tiebreaker. If we beat the jets, the Jets would need to beat both Miami and Oakland to finish 7-5 in conference. Even then, it needs to go to common opponents.

Cincinatti (4-3) All AFC opponents left. If they finish 9-7 AFC record will be 7-5. Same as Buffalo. Would need to go look at common opponents.

Jacksonville - (3-4) We hold the H2H

Miami (2-5) - If we beat Miami, we hold the H2H tiebreaker. If we lose, and Miami finishes 9-7, Miami is 6-5 in conference and we still hold the tiebreaker

 

 

So to recap.

Win and we are in.

Lose 1 game , and finish 9-7, we would have a fighting chance. Denver would likely hold a tiebreaker over us. Kansas City would not. Jets (if we beat them) and Cincinatti would be up to common opponents.

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I think this team has a better chance of finishing 0-5 than it does 5-0.  :devil:

848899[/snapback]

 

Yeah, I feel the same way. Even though the Bills are 3-1 since the bye I still see them finishing 6-10 (perhaps 7-9). That being said I do like coming to the wall and seeing some optimism for a change.

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Good work

 

My take at the playoff picture:

Cliff Notes: Win and we are in, Lose just 1 and we have a reasonable chance.

 

At this moment, this is the race for the Wildcard/Division Leaders

 

AFC East: New England

AFC North: Baltimore

AFC South: Indianapolis

AFC West: San Diego

 

Race for Wild Card

Denver 7-4

Kansas City 7-4

NY Jets 6-5

Cincinatti 6-5

Jacksonville 6-5

Buffalo 5-6

Miami 5-6

Pittsburgh 4-7

Tennesee 4-7

 

Now, obviously Buffalo needs to win out for our best chance.  A loss to SD would not end our dreams, but it would make it alot tougher.  Losing one game puts us at 7-5 in the AFC, which gives us a prayer for tiebreakers. Lets review the remaining games

 

Denver (7-4) - All accounts say Denver is going to go with their rookie QB.  Games remaining on their schedule include Seattle, San Diego, Arizona, Cincinatti and San Franciscio.  An uphill battle with a rookie QB to say the least.  Denver holds many tiebreakers due to a 7-3 AFC record.  3 wins, or 2 wins, including a win over either San Diego or Cincinatti, and they are in.

 

Kansas City (7-4) - Games left include Cleveland, Baltimore, San Diego, Oakland, and Jacksonville.  Kansas City is only 3-4 in conference currently, so they likely need 10 wins to get in.  Do not hold any significant H2H tiebreakers hand likely need to to win 3 of the remaining 5 games to get in. 

 

New York Jets (6-5) - Games Remaining include Green Bay, Buffalo, Minnesota, Miami and Oakland.  Would have H2H tiebreaker over miami if they win again in December, but it would likely be irrelavent as miami would then be (at best) 9-7 with a bad AFC record.  Likely need to go 4-1 to make the playoffs.  3 wins is possible assuming they win all 3 AFC games left on their schedule.

 

Cincinatti (6-5) - Left for dead 2 weeks ago, they are now in the thick of the playoff hunt.  Still have Baltimore, Oakland, Indianapolis, Denver and Pittsburgh left on the calender.  4-3 in conference right now, its questionable whether 3 wins will do it for them.  But 4 wins is going to be hard to get with those opponents.  Hold a head to head advantage over Kansas City. 

 

Jacksonville (6-5) 3-4 in conference, still have Miami, Indianapolis, Tennessee, New England and Kansas City left.  Likely need to go 4-1 over that stretch to get in.  Hold H2H tiebreaker over the Jets and Tennessee.  9-7 just wont do it for this club.  Would lose an AFC tiebreaker to most other 9-7 clubs.  Got their work cut out for them.

 

Buffalo (5-6) 3-4 in conference, have San Diego, Jets, Miami, Tennesse and Baltimore on the schedule.  With 1 loss in the last 5 weeks, they would be 7-5 in conference and could squeak in with a 9-7 record with a tiebreaker over the right teams. Best scenario, win out and they are likely in.  Hold head to head tiebreakers over Jacksonville & Miami (if they win in December).  I detail the 9-7 tiebreakers below

 

Miami (5-6) - A miserable 2-5 vs. AFC opponents means they will likely need to win out to make the playoffs.  Hold H2H tiebreaker over Kansas City.  Games remaining Jacksonville, New England, Buffalo, Jets, and Colts.  Good Luck.

 

Pittsburgh and Tennessee realistically are out of it.  Both need to win out to have a prayer, and both have very difficult schedules, and have bad AFC conference records. 

 

For Buffalo:

Finish 10-6 and we are pretty much in.  We would have the H2H over Jacksonville if they are 10-6, same with the Jets. Would have a better in conference record than Kansas City, would win a tiebreaker over Denver (unless they beat both cincinatti and San Diego in which case they win the tiebreaker), would also knock out Miami by beating them.  Cincinatti would need more review as we would both be 10-6 and would both be 8-4 in conference.  Need to resort to common games, which is too much work for me right now.  But all this said, there are 2 wildcard slots available, so chances are good we get one if we are 10-6.  The only way we dont make it is if Cincinatti and Denver are both 10-6 and we lose the common opponents tiebreaker.

 

Now, if we lose 1 game, and finish 9-7, this is where it gets really tough.

Our AFC conference record would be 7-5.  Respectable, but not outstanding.  Might depend to whom this loss comes against.

 

If the below teams finished 9-7, as well as Buffalo, who would win the tiebreaker?

(Records shown are current AFC records)

Denver - (7-3) -  Only 2 AFC games left.  SD and Cincinatti. Win one of them and they hold the tiebreaker over us.  Lose both, and it goes to common opponents.

Kansas City (3-4) - Only AFC opponents left for KC.  If KC finishes 9-7 we would win the tiebreaker because they won just 2 of their last 5 games and thus be a dismal 5-7 in conference.

Jets (5-4) - If our loss is to the Jets, the Jets win the H2H tiebreaker.  If we beat the jets, the Jets would need to beat both Miami and Oakland to finish 7-5 in conference.  Even then, it needs to go to common opponents.

Cincinatti (4-3) All AFC opponents left.  If they finish 9-7 AFC record will be 7-5. Same as Buffalo.  Would need to go look at common opponents.

Jacksonville - (3-4) We hold the H2H

Miami (2-5) - If we beat Miami, we hold the H2H tiebreaker.  If we lose, and Miami finishes 9-7, Miami is 6-5 in conference and we still hold the tiebreaker

So to recap.

Win and we are in.

Lose 1 game , and finish 9-7, we would have a fighting chance.  Denver would likely hold a tiebreaker over us.  Kansas City would not.  Jets (if we beat them) and Cincinatti would be up to common opponents.

848897[/snapback]

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Cincy win hurts us, no doubt about it.

 

Here is the rooting guide for the rest of this weekends games:

1) Detroit over New England

2) Green Bay over NYJ

3) Jacksonville over Miami

4) Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh

5) Cleveland over Kansas City

 

Seattle/Denver I am unsure about. On one hand, I want them to run away with the first WC slot because we dont have a good chance at beating them out in a 9-7 tie-breaker. On the other hand, a loss for Denver brings them back in the pack. I cant believe they will finish 8-8 though. I think we are better off seeing Denver win today.

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Cincy win hurts us, no doubt about it.

 

Here is the rooting guide for the rest of this weekends games:

1) Detroit over New England

2) Green Bay over NYJ

3) Jacksonville over Miami

4) Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh

5) Cleveland over Kansas City

 

Seattle/Denver I am unsure about.  On one hand, I want them to run away with the first WC slot because we dont have a good chance at beating them out in a 9-7 tie-breaker.  On the other hand, a loss for Denver brings them back in the pack.  I cant believe they will finish 8-8 though.  I think we are better off seeing Denver win today.

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Forget the Jets. That one hurts as they're KILLING Green Bay.

 

Cleveland is hanging tough with KC but I heard Frye is out of the game. NE is up on Det by 3 going into the 2nd half but I cant see the Lions pulling the upset and quite frankly, the division is out of reach anyways.

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Okay, have to keep this going.

 

5 teames are tied for the WC slot at 7-5 (with remaining opponents)

 

Kansas City (BAL, SD, OAK, JAX) .583 winning%

Denver (SD, ARZ, CIN, SF) .521 winning%

Jets (BUF, MIN, MIA, OAK) .354 winning%

Cincinatti (OAK,IND,DEN,PIT) .500 winning%

Jacksonville (IND, TEN, NE, KC) .646 winning%

Pittsburgh (CLE, CAR, BAL, CIN) - 5-7 and could mathmatically be tied with us at 9-7.

 

Leaving PIT out of the equation, there are 5 teams that need to win 3 of 4 games to beat out buffalo outright, and 2 of 4 games to tie buffalo.

 

As chronicled earlier, Denver is in at 9-7. They have the best AFC record by far. They SHOULD make the playoffs, but with a rookie QB, who knows....

 

The Jets have a good chance as well. Course we have to beat them to stay alive, so they need to lose 1 of the remaining 3 games against pretty easy opponents to stay with us at 9-7. We win the tiebreaker if they lose to either MIA or OAK, otherwise if they lose to minnesota, we are both 7-5 vs. common opponents...and the plot thickens more.

 

Cincinatti also has a good chance. Tough game in INDY. other than that, a winnable schedule. Should they finish 9-7, they would have the same afc record as us. Assuming one of their losses is to IND, we would both be 1-4 vs. common opponents. This is getting difficult.

 

Kansas City and Jacksonville have a tough road to hoe. Both have very difficult schedules (one plays SD and BAL, the other plays IND and NE), and then they play each other week 17. Only one (if any) will be 9-7. Probably insignifigant because both will likely lose a tiebreaker to us based on AFC record.

 

It should be noted the next tiebreaker after common opponents is strength of victory. Lets just say we dont have much hope there unless we destroy some teams down the stretch.

 

If I was a betting man right now (chances of making playoffs)

Denver: 70%

Jets: 50%

Cincinatti: 40%

Kansas City: 15%

Jacksonvile:10%

 

In sumary: Win out. Destroy a few teams in the process. Key Games:

Denver over Cincinatti

IND over CIN and JAX

SD and BAL over KC

MIA over NYJ

NE over JAX.

 

All those games above go as planned...we have a CHANCE. But it aint lookin pretty

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Okay, have to keep this going. 

 

5 teames are tied for the WC slot at 7-5 (with remaining opponents)

 

Kansas City (BAL, SD, OAK, JAX) .583 winning%

Denver (SD, ARZ, CIN, SF)  .521 winning%

Jets (BUF, MIN, MIA, OAK)  .354 winning%

Cincinatti (OAK,IND,DEN,PIT) .500 winning%

Jacksonville (IND, TEN, NE, KC) .646 winning%

Pittsburgh (CLE, CAR, BAL, CIN) - 5-7 and could mathmatically be tied with us at 9-7.

 

J

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CIN added 2 more to their long injury list in the BAL game. After losing RB Chris Perry - 2 weeks after coming off of IR - with a broken leg, Kenny Watson went down. MIN plucked rookie rb Naufahu Tahi from their PS squad, so they signed the preseason cut FA FB Chris Mandino to that. With the team injuries and if Watson can't go, I think they will have to risk carrying only 2 running backs - Rudi and Jeremi Johnson.

 

And 2nd year C Eric Ghiaciuc who replaced Rich Braham in game 2 looks to be out this week, replaced by the rehabilitated 2nd year man, Ben Wilkerson - he did play in preseason, but is essentially a rookie at a position that needs savvy. They might get starting RG Bobbie Williams back next week, though. I'm guessing LT Levi Jones won't play again this year.

 

Your 40% chance of them qualifying sounds right to me. In their favor is their current 4 - 1 AFC North record, and a win against KC. Against them is DEN's 7 - 3 AFC record.

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Well, never really thought this would go this far...but here we are going into week 15 and we are still (mathematically) alive for the playoffs.

 

At 8-5

Cincinnati Bengals (Ind, Den, Pit)

Jacksonville Jaguars (Ten, NE, KC)

 

At 7-6

New York Jets (Min, Mia, Oak)

Kansas City Chiefs (SD, Oak, Jax)

Denver Broncos (Arz, Cin, SF)

 

At 6-7

Buffalo Bills (Mia, Ten, Bal)

Pittsburgh Steelers (Car, Bal, Cin)

 

(Note: Ten and Mia not included because if Buffalo wins out, Ten and Mia will both lose at least one game).

 

So, Wow. Do we still have a chance? I see a realistic scenario where EVERY team above us in the wild card chase loses next week. Wouldnt that be interesting?

 

Trouble scenario I see however, is that the following games are still to be played:

Jacksonville/Kansas City

Cincinnati/Denver

 

That will provide 2 teams above us with very critical wins. A Denver win means they would likely need to lose to both Arizona and San Fran to miss the playoffs. Likewise, a Cincinnati win means Cincinnati will need to beat either Denver or Pit to guarantee playoff spot. Similar situation exists in the Jax/KC game.

 

Things are getting interesting, but Jacksonville beating Indianapolis today hurt us ALOT.

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Things are getting interesting, but Jacksonville beating Indianapolis today hurt us ALOT.

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What hurt us even more was those 2 road games we should have won (losing by two points 2 at NE and by 1 at Indy). Had we won those two, we'd be leading the division now, in control of our own destiny, and the naysayers would have shut the !@#$ up, jumped on the bandwagon, or gone away long ago.

 

Still, today's win was huge - keeps us in the race for another week and, more importantly, gives fans and the players reason to be extremely optimistic about the future.

 

JP will be a great QB in this league for years to come, and Levy/Jauron have this franchise on the path to another era of Bills' dynasty!

 

GO BILLS!!!! :thumbsup:

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Well, never really thought this would go this far...but here we are going into week 15 and we are still (mathematically) alive for the playoffs.

 

At 8-5

Cincinnati Bengals (Ind, Den, Pit)

Jacksonville Jaguars (Ten, NE, KC)

 

At 7-6

New York Jets (Min, Mia, Oak)

Kansas City Chiefs (SD, Oak, Jax)

Denver Broncos (Arz, Cin, SF)

 

At 6-7

Buffalo Bills (Mia, Ten, Bal)

Pittsburgh Steelers (Car, Bal, Cin)

 

(Note: Ten and Mia not included because if Buffalo wins out, Ten and Mia will both lose at least one game).

 

So, Wow.  Do we still have a chance?  I see a realistic scenario where EVERY team above us in the wild card chase loses next week.  Wouldnt that be interesting? 

 

Trouble scenario I see however, is that the following games are still to be played:

Jacksonville/Kansas City

Cincinnati/Denver

 

That will provide 2 teams above us with very critical wins.  A Denver win means they would likely need to lose to both Arizona and San Fran to miss the playoffs.  Likewise, a Cincinnati win means Cincinnati will need to beat either Denver or Pit to guarantee playoff spot.  Similar situation exists in the Jax/KC game.

 

Things are getting interesting, but Jacksonville beating Indianapolis today hurt us ALOT.

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The J'ville KC game is actually a good thing for us. One of them has to lose and we have very good tie breaks against both. KC is 3-6 in the conference. Assuming they lose to San Diego, beat Oakland and then beat J'ville, they would finish with a 5-7 conference record. Assuming we win out which is really the only realistic scenario for us to make it, we would finish with a 7-5 conference record. Since we didn't play KC and are in different divisions, the first tie-break would be conference record.

 

As for J'ville, we beat them head to head so we win a tie break against them. They have Ten, NE and KC left so they easily could lose two if not all three.

 

We probably need Cinn to get the other play off spot. They play Denver who is definitely in the running. We need the Bengals to take care of them for us. Denver plays Arizona, Cinn and SF and are a game ahead of us. There is a good chance they will lose to Cinn but I don't like the odds of them losing to Az or SF. If they don't and we win out, we end up tied and they have the best conference record so we would be out in the cold. Denver is actually one of our biggest problems. We need them to get upset once and to lose to the Bengals.

 

The Jets have Minn, Miami and Oak left. We need them to lose to the Vikings and the Dolphins the following week.

 

For us to make it to the post season would be a long shot but not as long as you might think based on ESPN's coverage of the playoff hunt on the highlight shows. They are not even listing the 6-7 teams on the board.

 

Here is your guide on what to pull for next week:

 

Carolina over the Steelers

Tenn over J'ville

Minn over Jets

AZ over Denver

Indy over Cinn

Buff over Miami

 

Those results would leave this list for the Wild Card hunt:

 

Cinn 8-6

J'ville 8-6

Jets 7-7

Buff 7-7

KC 7-7

Denver 7-7

Tenn 7-7

Miami 6-8

Pitt 6-8

 

The following week root for:

 

Balt over Pitt

NE over J'ville

Buff over Tenn

Miami over the Jets

Cinn over Denver

Oak over KC (won't happen)

 

Those results would leave this wild card list (changing the Oak-KC game to give KC the win since we really don't need that upset and it won't happen anyway):

 

Cinn 9-6

J'ville 8-7

Buff 8-7

KC 8-7

Denver 7-8

Tenn 7-8

Miami 7-8

Jets 7-8

Pitt 6-9

 

Going in to the last week we need the following to happen:

 

Buff over Balt

 

That is all. If we do that we will finish tied with either J'ville of KC and we win the tie breaker against both.

 

I think the only realy long shot in that whole scenario is Denver having to lose to either Az or SF but even that isn't such a long shot.

 

Next week is the critical week. The games set up for us nicely the following week. Apart from Denver losing the the Cardinals, I think Minnesota over the Jets is a bit iffy as is Tenn. over J'ville. The following week we don't need any upsets, not even a mild one. We just need good teams like the Bengals not to screw up against lesser opponents.

 

This could be interesting.

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Love the win this week. Heard way to much trash talk from Jets fans. Also, even though it's a long shot (based on what other teams do), I like our chances of playoffs.

 

I do BILLieve that the Bills can win out.

 

Fish don't like the cold.

Titans, well... they owe us one.

Ravens... should be sitting players.

 

 

 

BILLIEVE!!! :thumbsup::nana::lol::lol:

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Here is your guide on what to pull for next week:

 

Carolina over the Steelers

Tenn over J'ville

Minn over Jets

AZ over Denver

Indy over Cinn

Buff over Miami

 

Those results would leave this list for the Wild Card hunt:

 

Cinn 8-6

J'ville 8-6

Jets 7-7

Buff 7-7

KC 7-7

Denver 7-7

Tenn 7-7

Miami 6-8

Pitt 6-8

 

The following week root for:

 

Balt over Pitt

NE over J'ville

Buff over Tenn

Miami over the Jets

Cinn over Denver

Oak over KC  (won't happen)

 

Those results would leave this wild card list (changing the Oak-KC game to give KC the win since we really don't need that upset and it won't happen anyway):

 

Cinn 9-6

J'ville 8-7

Buff 8-7

KC 8-7

Denver 7-8

Tenn 7-8

Miami 7-8

Jets 7-8

Pitt 6-9

 

Going in to the last week we need the following to happen:

 

Buff over Balt

 

That is all.

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That's all???

 

Just kidding - great info, but could someone 'button it all up' in an Excel spreadsheet or something?

 

I tend to imbibe, and don't want to screw up and root for the wrong team! :thumbsup:

 

Step #1...

 

SQUISH THE FREAKIN' FISH!!!!

 

BuffTown- 37

Dolphags-- 6

 

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

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