Tortured Soul Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Oak over KC (won't happen) 862671[/snapback] KC won by only four points a couple of weeks ago at home, and they are a different team on the road (5-2 home vs. 2-4 away). That said, the most unlikely game I see on your list is NE winning in Jacksonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 That's all??? Just kidding - great info, but could someone 'button it all up' in an Excel spreadsheet or something? I tend to imbibe, and don't want to screw up and root for the wrong team! Step #1... SQUISH THE FREAKIN' FISH!!!! BuffTown- 37 Dolphags-- 6 GO BILLSSS!!!! 862799[/snapback] I know, it sounds like a lot but when you look at it game by game, we really don't need a bunch of crazy upsets. For most of the games, we just need the favorite to win. Take next week, I listed Carolina over the Steelers and Indy over Cinn but those aren't strictly necessary for us to make the playoffs, I just threw them in because those out comes will help us in the long run. Actually, we only need the Steelers to lose one game and after Carolina they have Baltimore and Cinn. I really don't think we have to worry about the Steelers but if Carolina did beat them, they would be out of the picture from the git go. I think it help us for Cinn to get knocked out of the division race so that the last game of the season for Baltimore against us is meaningless so I think it helps if the Bengals lose to Indy but it really isn't at all critical to our playoff hopes. That means that next week, we just need to beat Miami which, at home and in the cold, is probably a good bet for us. We need the Titans to beat J'ville and why not? The Jags are up and down and the Titans are hot right now, very hot. The have won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 9. One of those two losses was the Ravens by only one point. The Titans are home for that game as well. Not only that but we only need J'ville to lose two and their next two are against New England and KC. Neither of those is a cake walk. Still, a loss to the Titans would be great for us. I don't think a Titan win would even be considered an upset. We need the Jets to lose to the Vikings. At least they are at home and really, the Jets are overrated. I think we showed that to be true on Sunday. Maybe this would be a mild upset of sorts but certainly not a crazy one. Not only that but it isn't necessary that the Jets lose here. If we get into a tie breaker with the Jets, it goes all the way down to "strength of victory". That will likely favor us. Where we lost to Detroit, they lost the Jags who we beat and that will definitely help our strenght of victory numbers. Also, we play Baltimore and assuming we beat them (the only way any of this works out is if we win out), that win will match quite nicely against the Jets win over Oakland. In the end, the wins they have that we don't would be Oak, NE, Det and Clev and the wins we have that they don't would be Balt, Miami and the Jags. Clearly, Balt-Miami-Jags will have a better won-lost percentage than NE-Clev-Oak-Det. So, all we need is for the Jets to lose one, two would be nicer but one will do. The Denver game is the problem. We need them to lose two of three and they have Cinn left so that should be one loss. Neither SF or AZ is much good and we are out if Denver wins those two. Still, that gives us two shots at a mild upset. The Cardinal game is Denver's only road game left so I like that one for the upset more than SF. Denver has dropped 4 in a row so, again, I don't think them losing 2 out of 3 is so crazy. Lets say that we don't get real lucky this weekend and some of the games go against us. For example, lets say that we win and the Titans win but so do Denver and the Jets. That puts us one game behind Denver, J'Ville and the Jets. The following week the Jets are on the road in Miami for an 8:30 game and Denver is playing Cinn. I'd pick both Miami and Cinn in those two games, keeping mind that the Jets only beat Miami by 3 points at home earlier in the season when Mare missed a 51 yarder at the buzzer. J'ville is playing NE and I have no problem picking the Patriots there. Not a gimmee but certainly not a huge upset. If that happens, we end up tied at 8-8 with the Jags, Denver and the Jets, also maybe KC. We have favorable tie breakers against all those teams wit the exception of Denver. At that point, we just have to hope that SF takes them in the last game. It seem like a lot but even so, it is not as long of a shot as I thought it was before I took a long look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pBills Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Long shots are better than no shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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