mike1011 Posted November 11, 2006 Share Posted November 11, 2006 I think you are comparing apples to oranges. You have established teams with lots of talent on both the line and the WR. Where as we are trying to put together a line that can block and fid WR that can get open. 831992[/snapback] You're completely correct. Caldwell and Brown is probably the best WR tandem out there. After watching the game both QBs in that game were pressured all game. JP needs more mental abilities, not more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeLuca1967 Posted November 11, 2006 Share Posted November 11, 2006 Did you see the pass rush they generated on that day....Remeber the Bills OL is also in the bottom of the league.....(Please do not jump and bring in some statistics that the bills are really 28th.).....Even the DTs were getting sacks,and QB hurries...It is one thing to stop the ends from getting to the QB, but when the interior linemen get to the QB, then there is not much he can do. 832213[/snapback] It still doesn't take away from the fact that the Bills made the worst defense in the league look like the '85 Bears. If the Bills can't get things done against that defense? What hope is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted November 11, 2006 Share Posted November 11, 2006 It proves JP is regressing - regressing toward the mean. That is, I mean, a mean reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted November 11, 2006 Share Posted November 11, 2006 OK. I decided to look objectively at how much time Losman has before he throws or gets sacked. So I watched the Packer game and recorded from the time the ball was snapped until he threw it, got sacked, or took off running. Then I thought why not compare to Manning and Brady, the game was on NFL Replay. I could only do part of that game, because my wife was demanding the TV back. None the less, I was surprised by the numbers. I thought JP would have far less time to throw, what I found was quite different. Here's the numbers and my conclusions: JP's Time: 03.7 complete 03.1 incomplete royal not seen 02.3 quick pa to shelton 02.5 sack -pennington beat 03.8 short underneath to evans 03.6 royal dropped - over db on royals hands 02.0 designed dump off to AT 03.3 sack up middle 01.7 complete 3step drop to reed 02.8 scramble to avoid sack 02.9 down field to evans - drop on his hands safety was there if thrown longer 01.9 rollout complete to price 02.9 sack 03.0 incomplete to royal - near interception 03.9 sack 03.2 incomplete high to davis 02.8 short to shelton - designed 03.4 sack up middle 03.2 incomplete - tipped 01.9 incomplete royal drop - low pass 03.6 touchdown to evans 7-14 (5 sacks) (so I missed one somewhere) Min: 1.7 seconds Max: 3.9 seconds Mean: 2.9 seconds Incomplete pass to Price in 1st quarter; he had Royal underneath, but appeared to be going for the touchdown and over threw. On dropped pass to Evans that was short; the safety was deep and if the ball is thrown deeper, he'd definitely have a play on the ball. So not a bad throw afterall, in my opinion. Peyton's Time: 02.9 incompete 02.3 incomplete 05.0 compete - scrambled left 02.4 complete 04.1 complete 02.2 touchdown 02.5 complete 02.8 complete 02.6 complete 03.8 complete 03.7 incomplete -PI 02.7 sack 02.9 intereference 01.4 complete 02.3 incomplete 03.8 thrown away 03.1 sack 02.8 complete 04.6 pressured complete 04.1 complete 01.2 touchdown 13-19 (2 sacks) (selected - I didn't watch the whole game) Min: 1.2 seconds Max: 5.0 seconds Mean: 3.0 seconds Brady's Time: 02.9 complete 02.0 complete 02.4 complete 03.4 complete 02.0 complete 01.8 complete 02.9 scrambles 02.1 incomplete interference 02.5 incomplete 03.7 incomplete 6-9 (0 sacks) (selected - I didn't watch the whole game) Min: 1.8 seconds Max: 3.7 seconds Mean: 2.6 seconds =============================================================================== It appears from these limited numbers that JP has just about the same amount of time to throw as Manning and Brady. However (JP haters knew that was coming), on every pass the Buffalo LOS is getting pushed into JP's face. There was almost no pocket to step into. There was almost no separation between him and the pass rush. In contrast, although Brady and Manning got rid of the ball just as quickly; they had far more separation between them and the rush. Quite often, they could step up in the pocket and really get behind their throws. In conclusion, given this very limited sample survey, I'd offer that the Buffalo line does give JP time to throw. However, they're consistently getting pushed backwards. The result is JP "appears" to have less time in the pocket and defintely is making more "hurried" throws. The other observation, that seems to be missing from Buffalo's passing protection is the occurence of "passing lanes". There are no clear lanes for JP to readily see the reciever. Manning seemed to consistently have great passing lanes to readily see the field. The other decidedly noticeable observation was the play calling. The Pats and Colts defintely seem to mix the plays up better. Of course, its very obvious that Manning and Brady are definitely more polished QBs; therefore, they're easily able to scan the field and make the quicker decision. Given the separation when they threw, I'd guess they could have easily had an extra 0.5 second to throw the ball; whereas JP seemed to always throw at the last possible instant. Talk amongst yourselves... *Disclaimer - I'm not the best with math, so please check my addition and division, if you wish. I also missed a pass in the Bills game and because I was watching Replay, I certainly did not get all the passes for Manning and Brady. However, these numbers do show a trend which I think is representative of reality for these 2 games. 831962[/snapback] Terrific work, and thank you for taking the time to do this. Probably the best info posted here on the subject of JP. Some non-fiction for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyF Posted November 11, 2006 Share Posted November 11, 2006 I have not been overly critical of the O Line.... They are what they are. Can I repeat JP only attempted 15 passes, completed 8, had 2 easy drops. Add 5 sacks & 1 run. Got to get him in better passing situations, use shotgun, if he has trouble reading at the line and have him throw 35 times a game (league average) to see if he can do anything.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted November 11, 2006 Share Posted November 11, 2006 Now let me add this, which is largely a subjective opinion, I think most times, Manning has as time as he wants/needs whereas it appears that often it appears that JP is getting rid of the ball out of necessity rather than desire. How much of that is attributable to the particular QBs skill & how much to the talent of his supporting cast is open to debate. (Also how much different schemes come into play.) 831986[/snapback] I appreciate the effort and it's not totally wasted, but you are right that the analysis doesn't work because when the ball was thrown doesn't really tell you about the pass rush pressure. And I'd add that comparing him to two great pocket passers is unfair. He'll never be the guy who takes a two step drop, floats it to a spot and like magic it ends up on his receivers hands in stride just out of reach of the defensive back. Those guys have a brilliant coordination of mind and arm. JP is more of a Donovan McNabb or Steve McNair type of athletic QB. He's talented enough to be a good pocket passer, but his athletic ability can allow him to buy time, wait for a defense to lose coverage then find the open receiver or run for a nice gain. We don't get to see those skills because he's on a very short leash. People mock his puny passing stats, but if he were dropping back 35 times, he'd consistently get his 300+ yards and be a 25 TD guy. But he'd also be a turnover factory and would probably be seriously injured from all of the hits he'd absorb behind the laughable collection of rejects they call their offensieve line. This team can't absorb even a single turnover and HOPE to win. They've actually been dominated in two of their victories. And instead of this being a 2-14 team that will probably manage to win 6 games, they would actually be 2-14, which would be a better reflection of their lines, their overall lack of depth and inexperience at QB. Whether this is a good long term way to develop this QB, versus letting him get into shootouts he'll inevitably lose badly, remains to be seen, but it's never a bad thing to understand the value of protecting the football. I think he'll be OK and while his numbers might not reflect it over the course of this season, the experience is making him better and when he experience becomes know-how we should at least have an entertaining good QB for a 5-7 year period. But whether they win or not is still going to be about coaching and line play. Here's to getting to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted November 11, 2006 Share Posted November 11, 2006 Very nice assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dog14787 Posted November 11, 2006 Share Posted November 11, 2006 OK. I decided to look objectively at how much time Losman has before he throws or gets sacked. So I watched the Packer game and recorded from the time the ball was snapped until he threw it, got sacked, or took off running. Then I thought why not compare to Manning and Brady, the game was on NFL Replay. I could only do part of that game, because my wife was demanding the TV back. None the less, I was surprised by the numbers. I thought JP would have far less time to throw, what I found was quite different. Here's the numbers and my conclusions: JP's Time: 03.7 complete 03.1 incomplete royal not seen 02.3 quick pa to shelton 02.5 sack -pennington beat 03.8 short underneath to evans 03.6 royal dropped - over db on royals hands 02.0 designed dump off to AT 03.3 sack up middle 01.7 complete 3step drop to reed 02.8 scramble to avoid sack 02.9 down field to evans - drop on his hands safety was there if thrown longer 01.9 rollout complete to price 02.9 sack 03.0 incomplete to royal - near interception 03.9 sack 03.2 incomplete high to davis 02.8 short to shelton - designed 03.4 sack up middle 03.2 incomplete - tipped 01.9 incomplete royal drop - low pass 03.6 touchdown to evans 7-14 (5 sacks) (so I missed one somewhere) Min: 1.7 seconds Max: 3.9 seconds Mean: 2.9 seconds Incomplete pass to Price in 1st quarter; he had Royal underneath, but appeared to be going for the touchdown and over threw. On dropped pass to Evans that was short; the safety was deep and if the ball is thrown deeper, he'd definitely have a play on the ball. So not a bad throw afterall, in my opinion. Peyton's Time: 02.9 incompete 02.3 incomplete 05.0 compete - scrambled left 02.4 complete 04.1 complete 02.2 touchdown 02.5 complete 02.8 complete 02.6 complete 03.8 complete 03.7 incomplete -PI 02.7 sack 02.9 intereference 01.4 complete 02.3 incomplete 03.8 thrown away 03.1 sack 02.8 complete 04.6 pressured complete 04.1 complete 01.2 touchdown 13-19 (2 sacks) (selected - I didn't watch the whole game) Min: 1.2 seconds Max: 5.0 seconds Mean: 3.0 seconds Brady's Time: 02.9 complete 02.0 complete 02.4 complete 03.4 complete 02.0 complete 01.8 complete 02.9 scrambles 02.1 incomplete interference 02.5 incomplete 03.7 incomplete 6-9 (0 sacks) (selected - I didn't watch the whole game) Min: 1.8 seconds Max: 3.7 seconds Mean: 2.6 seconds =============================================================================== It appears from these limited numbers that JP has just about the same amount of time to throw as Manning and Brady. However (JP haters knew that was coming), on every pass the Buffalo LOS is getting pushed into JP's face. There was almost no pocket to step into. There was almost no separation between him and the pass rush. In contrast, although Brady and Manning got rid of the ball just as quickly; they had far more separation between them and the rush. Quite often, they could step up in the pocket and really get behind their throws. In conclusion, given this very limited sample survey, I'd offer that the Buffalo line does give JP time to throw. However, they're consistently getting pushed backwards. The result is JP "appears" to have less time in the pocket and defintely is making more "hurried" throws. The other observation, that seems to be missing from Buffalo's passing protection is the occurence of "passing lanes". There are no clear lanes for JP to readily see the reciever. Manning seemed to consistently have great passing lanes to readily see the field. The other decidedly noticeable observation was the play calling. The Pats and Colts defintely seem to mix the plays up better. Of course, its very obvious that Manning and Brady are definitely more polished QBs; therefore, they're easily able to scan the field and make the quicker decision. Given the separation when they threw, I'd guess they could have easily had an extra 0.5 second to throw the ball; whereas JP seemed to always throw at the last possible instant. Talk amongst yourselves... *Disclaimer - I'm not the best with math, so please check my addition and division, if you wish. I also missed a pass in the Bills game and because I was watching Replay, I certainly did not get all the passes for Manning and Brady. However, these numbers do show a trend which I think is representative of reality for these 2 games. 831962[/snapback] If you want to get real scientific about it, the numbers would have to be taken from the same defenses. I'm also sure Losman is blitzed more than Brady or Manning. However, your points are well taken, all in all, the O-line did well against the Packers. If the Bill's can run the ball against the Colts, and we can slam down Manning hard enough to knock him sensless, we might have a chance. Bill's 20 Colt's 13 in a Defensive slug fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted November 11, 2006 Share Posted November 11, 2006 Bill's 20 Colt's 13 in a Defensive slug fest 832547[/snapback] Bills 20 (points total) Colts 13 (points in the first quarter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dog14787 Posted November 11, 2006 Share Posted November 11, 2006 Bills 20 (points total)Colts 13 (points in the first quarter) 832551[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted November 11, 2006 Share Posted November 11, 2006 OK. I decided to look objectively at how much time Losman has before he throws or gets sacked. Thanks for taking the time to do all this. A great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted November 12, 2006 Share Posted November 12, 2006 Thanks for the homework. I will also discount Brady's times. He does throw mostly quick passes and timing routes. The big thing I notice between Manning and JP is the range of times. In the list of passing plays involving Manning, there are 4 plays where he held the ball better than 4 seconds, the longest was five seconds. At the other end, he got rid of the ball twice in less than 2 seconds, the shortest being 1.2 seconds. JP's longest time in the pocket was 3.9 seconds and his shortest, 1.7 seconds. He was under 2 seconds 3 times. Obviously, when Manning held the ball for a mere 1.2 seconds, that was a quick hitter. Any reading of the defense had to occur before the snap. I think it might help the Bills to have some of those plays in their arsenal and work to execute quickly. The only way JP could ever figure on taking 5 seconds for a play to develop would be to scramble around outside the pocket to buy time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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