Dibs Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 I've made comment recently about how I believe one needs a top QB to win Super Bowls. I stand by that thought though.... Where do you find said top QB? I would have thought high 1st round in the draft...hell, 1st round period. This article puts a dampner on my thoughts. Linky: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/colu...02=stateChanged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCM Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 I've made comment recently about how I believe one needs a top QB to win Super Bowls.I stand by that thought though.... Where do you find said top QB? I would have thought high 1st round in the draft...hell, 1st round period. This article puts a dampner on my thoughts. Linky: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/colu...02=stateChanged 665157[/snapback] I didn't read the entire article.....but, I'm not surprised. Often, the high 1st round QB's go to crappy teams.....almost destined to fail. I have to believe that Alex Smith is much better than what he showed us last year, and also believe that if he played with the Steelers he would have had a much better season and expectations of a bright future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 and assemble a talented supporting cast around a less-than-prototypical superstar quarterback. I think this is really the heart of the matter. The Steelers had everything in place when Rothlisburger stepped in while Buffalo had a bad defense, no offensive line, a meager attempt of a running game but hey...the special teams were great, for JP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 and assemble a talented supporting cast around a less-than-prototypical superstar quarterback. I think this is really the heart of the matter. The Steelers had everything in place when Rothlisburger stepped in while Buffalo had a bad defense, no offensive line, a meager attempt of a running game but hey...the special teams were great, for JP. 665184[/snapback] And you Sir, are 100% correct. I am guessing that dozens of potentially good/decent qbs have ruined by getting their brains beaten in while they are learning behind a terrible team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 And you Sir, are 100% correct. I am guessing that dozens of potentially good/decent qbs have ruined by getting their brains beaten in while they are learning behind a terrible team. 665195[/snapback] Their can't be that large a disparity between QB's at most D1 schools. I have to imagine that the majority of good college QB's, if plugged into the right system, would have some success. Just throwing a young kid to the wolves with no help is going to result in failure 99.9 percent of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 Their can't be that large a disparity between QB's at most D1 schools. I have to imagine that the majority of good college QB's, if plugged into the right system, would have some success. Just throwing a young kid to the wolves with no help is going to result in failure 99.9 percent of the time. 665238[/snapback] i have to disagree, i think this is pretty far from the truth. there are huge differences in how these guys can throw they ball, read the D, find open people, take a hit, and how the act under pressure. some guys have it and some guys just don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 I've made comment recently about how I believe one needs a top QB to win Super Bowls.I stand by that thought though.... Where do you find said top QB? I would have thought high 1st round in the draft...hell, 1st round period. This article puts a dampner on my thoughts. Linky: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/colu...02=stateChanged 665157[/snapback] 1 thing they fail to mention is that maybe a first round pick only makes it big time 50% of the time, but late round picks are a much bigger longshot. Hell, even if the success rate of 1st round QB's is 1 out of 3, the success rate for lower round QB's is probably more like 1 out of 30. Its all a matter of media perception. Everyone notices the big name forst round QB that was a bust, and everyone notices the names of low rounders that hti it big. No one remembers the countless late round QB's who wash out of the league year after year. The fact remains, all things being equal, if your team needs a QB you are better off selecting one early rather than late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted April 19, 2006 Author Share Posted April 19, 2006 i have to disagree, i think this is pretty far from the truth. there are huge differences in how these guys can throw they ball, read the D, find open people, take a hit, and how the act under pressure. some guys have it and some guys just don't. 665295[/snapback] Mistake in article...Bledsoe also made the superbowl. I had a bit of time so... # of 1st round QBs from 1986-2002 = 32 2003-2005(too early to tell) COMPLETE BUST = 14 NOT GOOD ENOUGH(injuries included) = 5 PRO BOWLER = 7(4 are not really good enough to win) SUPERBOWL WINNER = 2(both pro bowlers) SUPERBOWL LOSER = 4(all pro bowlers) As you can see, 72% are busts or not good enough. Only 19% get to the big game. ONLY 12.5% WIN THE SUPER BOWL! I personally don't think it is as simple as they go to rubbish teams so therefore become busts. Some moved on to other teams to earn pro bowls & super bowls. A lot of the QBs were picked lower in the draft(by O.K. teams) & were still busts. I'm starting to think the QB position might be too difficult for scouts to analyse at the college level. Minimally, I think there is no extra reason for drafting a QB higher just because he is a QB. Too much emphasis is placed upon a 1st round QB. ()=number of pro bowls 1986 3 Jim Everett(1) - HOU 12 Chuck Long - DET 1987 1 Vinny Testaverde(2) - T.B. 6 Kelly Stouffer - St. L 13 Chris Miller(1)- ATL 26 Jim Harbaugh(1)- CHI 1988 - none 1989 1 Troy Aikman(6) - DAL 1990 1 Jeff George - IND 7 Andre Ware - DET 1991 16 Dan McGwire - SEA 24 Todd Marinovich - OAK 1992 6 David Klingler - CIN 25 Tommy Maddox - DEN 1993 1 Drew Bledsoe(4) - N.E. 2 Rick Mirer - SEA 1994 3 Heath Shuler - WAS 6 Trent Dilfer(1) - T.B. 1995 3 Steve McNair(2) - HOU 5 Kerry Collins(1) - CAR 1996 - none 1997 26 Jim Druckenmiller - S.F. 1998 1 Peyton Manning(6) - IND 2 Ryan Leaf - S.D. 1999 1 Tim Couch - CLE 2 Donovan McNabb(5) - PHI 3 Akili Smith - CIN 11 Daunte Culpepper(3) - MIN 12 Cade McNown - CHI 2000 18 Chad Pennington - NYJ 2001 1 Michael Vick(3) - ATL 2002 1 David Carr - HOU 3 Joey Harrington- DET 32 Patrick Ramsey - WAS 2003 1 Carson Palmer(1) - CIN 7 Byron Leftwich - JAX 19 Kyle Boller - BAL 22 Rex Grossman - CHI 2004 1 Eli Manning - NYG 4 Philip Rivers - S.D. 11 Ben Roethlisberger - PIT 22 J.P. Losman - BUF 2005 1 Alex Smith - S.F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsflippinrule Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 2005 24 Aaron Rodgers - G.B. Don't forget this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABills Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 I believe the Skins drafted a qb in the first round last year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 I believe the Skins drafted a qb in the first round last year as well. 665441[/snapback] Jason Campbell, Auburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talonz Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 1991 was a banner year eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 I've made comment recently about how I believe one needs a top QB to win Super Bowls.I stand by that thought though.... Where do you find said top QB? I would have thought high 1st round in the draft...hell, 1st round period. This article puts a dampner on my thoughts. Linky: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/colu...02=stateChanged 665157[/snapback] drew bledsoe was first round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyC81 Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 i have to disagree, i think this is pretty far from the truth. there are huge differences in how these guys can throw they ball, read the D, find open people, take a hit, and how the act under pressure. some guys have it and some guys just don't. 665295[/snapback] I have a hard time believing that Joe Montana would've been an NFL Hall-of-Fame QB had the Bills drafted him in 1979 instead of the Niners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartyBall4Buffalo Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 All in all I dont put much stock into quaterbacks in general. Imo you can win with any qb as long as you have a good oline. You don't need the all world physically talented guy. You win football in the trenches period!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted April 20, 2006 Author Share Posted April 20, 2006 All in all I dont put much stock into quaterbacks in general. Imo you can win with any qb as long as you have a good oline. You don't need the all world physically talented guy. You win football in the trenches period!!!! 665747[/snapback] I think there is a good argument though to suggest a QB with exceptional awareness can succeed with an average O-line. Brady would be the most prominant example for this. I think a top O-line(& weapons) can make a QB look better than he is but a true Pro bowl QB(Favre, Montana, Elway, Manning, etc) makes all around him look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 Mistake in article...Bledsoe also made the superbowl. I had a bit of time so... # of 1st round QBs from 1986-2002 = 32 2003-2005(too early to tell) COMPLETE BUST = 14 NOT GOOD ENOUGH(injuries included) = 5 PRO BOWLER = 7(4 are not really good enough to win) SUPERBOWL WINNER = 2(both pro bowlers) SUPERBOWL LOSER = 4(all pro bowlers) As you can see, 72% are busts or not good enough. Only 19% get to the big game. ONLY 12.5% WIN THE SUPER BOWL! : 665382[/snapback] I did a similar study during last season, and had similar findings. 50% Bust 25% Journeyman quality 25% Legit long-term starter To the earlier poster who pointed out (correctly) that lower picks have longer odds, I would differ from his conclusion that teams in need need to pick their qb in the first round. Instead, I think the best strategy based on this data is that you pick a qb every year, and do not put all your eggs in his basket. You do not take a step back to develop him on the field, because the chances are you will spend years sapping the morale of the team just to find out he's not your guy. You keep these qb's on the bench untill they show they are better than the guy starting. Do you have to do it that way? Of course not. I simply think this strategy has the best W-L payoff for the franchise over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted April 20, 2006 Author Share Posted April 20, 2006 I did a similar study during last season, and had similar findings. 50% Bust 25% Journeyman quality 25% Legit long-term starter To the earlier poster who pointed out (correctly) that lower picks have longer odds, I would differ from his conclusion that teams in need need to pick their qb in the first round. Instead, I think the best strategy based on this data is that you pick a qb every year, and do not put all your eggs in his basket. You do not take a step back to develop him on the field, because the chances are you will spend years sapping the morale of the team just to find out he's not your guy. You keep these qb's on the bench untill they show they are better than the guy starting. Do you have to do it that way? Of course not. I simply think this strategy has the best W-L payoff for the franchise over time. 665792[/snapback] I quite like that theory. If you combine it with the "in the trenches" theory & use 1st round picks on the lines each year then when you (eventually) strike it rich at lower round QB you will have an awesome line(theoretically) protecting him & providing a good running game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rev.Mattb74 ESQ. Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 Really if you stop to think about it, there are only a handful of great QBs in the game today. You have three in their prime Peyton, Brady, and Mcnabb-you have two that where great Favre, and McNair and two that could become grat Big Ben and Palmer. Then you have alot of good QBs Brees, Culpepper, Hasselback, Eli, Vick, Bulger and others. So teams put a premium on QBs because you can win a super bowl without a great QB but it makes it alot harder. So sometimes teams get googly eyed over a big arm but that doesnt always translate because in the NFL you have to fit it in more then in college. Alot of first round picks are busts but QBs stick out more, because of the expectations, pressure. and the spotlight that comes with the position. By the way a late round pick I would like the Bills to get at QB would be Drew Olsen the QB from UCLA, I was watching a draft show the other day and they where showing Mercedes Lewis highlights and all these passes thrown to him I thought where tight and on the money many times in traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye Eric Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 I've made comment recently about how I believe one needs a top QB to win Super Bowls.I stand by that thought though.... Where do you find said top QB? I would have thought high 1st round in the draft...hell, 1st round period. This article puts a dampner on my thoughts. Linky: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/colu...02=stateChanged 665157[/snapback] There are some of us that have been saying this on this board for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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