Misplaced concerns

[bleedinblue]

Popular thing seems to be to place the blame for the Bill's miserable performance the last two games on JP, the O line, the defense and/or all of the above. It seems to me that in the Bucs game, our head coach was completely out coached. Yesterday, Deangelo Hall goes down for most of the second quarter, leaving the Falcons with a 2nd and 3rd stinger at CB, one of which was dinged for a few plays leaving a back up saftey at corner. As I recall, we went to 4 wideouts 4 or 5 times during that timeframe. Yeah, JP was 10 for 23, but the 23 is as big a problem, if not bigger that the 10 in yesterdays situation. Additonally, why we didn't go for 2 after the 1st score is beyond me. Usually not a big fan of it, but at that point yesterday, it simply didn't make any difference so why not try. And why the staff called for a sneak on 4th and over a yard when you have a guy averaging 5.2 per carry on the day is astounding. Point is, you havev to be concerned about the coaching decisions the last two games. Besides the mistake, keeping JP on such a short leash is only going to impede his progress.

[Ramius]

Popular thing seems to be to place the blame for the Bill's miserable performance the last two games on JP, the O line, the defense and/or all of the above.  It seems to me that in the Bucs game, our head coach was completely out coached.  Yesterday, Deangelo Hall goes down for most of the second quarter, leaving the Falcons with a 2nd and 3rd stinger at CB, one of which was dinged for a few plays leaving a back up saftey at corner.  As I recall, we went to 4 wideouts 4 or 5 times during that timeframe.  Yeah, JP was 10 for 23, but the 23 is as big a problem, if not bigger that the 10 in yesterdays situation.  Additonally, why we didn't go for 2 after the 1st score is beyond me.  Usually not  a big fan of it, but at that point yesterday, it simply didn't make any difference so why not try. And why the staff called for a sneak on 4th and over a yard when you have a guy averaging 5.2 per carry on the day is astounding.  Point is, you havev to be concerned about the coaching decisions the last two games.  Besides the mistake, keeping JP on such a short leash is only going to impede his progress.

454692[/snapback]

 

You dont go for 2 unless its the 4th quarter or late in the third and you absolutely need it...say we go for 2 and miss early, then in the 4th we are down 24-15 with NO chance at a final tying drive...

[bleedinblue]

You dont go for 2 unless its the 4th quarter or late in the third and you absolutely need it...say we go for 2 and miss early, then in the 4th we are down 24-15 with NO chance at a final tying drive...

454706[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

bs, made no difference at that point, you can't base the decision at the time on what happened later.

[Simon]

Yeah, JP was 10 for 23, but the 23 is as big a problem, if not bigger that the 10 in yesterdays situation.

I agree that the style of coaching has been problematic from what I've seen in the last couple games. But regarding that number you should also consider adding sacks and Losman scrambles to get a more accurate number of the passplays called. That makes it up around 32 which imo is plenty when you've got a RB cranking out yardage like Willis was.

And regardless of what happens later on, as Capt. Ramius said you still don't go for 2 in the middle of the 2nd quarer no matter what the score is. You take the point when it's there.

Cya

[DeeRay]

dude... even when JP had time he was aither way late with the throw or way off target. Believe me, he was bad.

[Puhonix]

bs, made no difference at that point, you can't base the decision at the time on what happened later.

454716[/snapback]

You're wrong. Every coach has their strategy, but basically, you don't go for 2 until you need to get two points. No point in eliminating yourselves from the game early. Taking the one there gives you a chance to tie the game on one drive, where if you missed the 2 pointer there, you now need two drives.

[Fezmid]

You're wrong. Every coach has their strategy, but basically, you don't go for 2 until you need to get two points. No point in eliminating yourselves from the game early. Taking the one there gives you a chance to tie the game on one drive, where if you missed the 2 pointer there, you now need two drives.

454852[/snapback]

 

I was in favor of going for two.

 

That said, you're right. Look at the Dallas game, for example. They missed a PAT so went for two on their next TD and missed that. At the end of the game they had to go for two AGAIN, in order to go up by 3. If they had just kicked the PAT (assuming their kicker made it...), they would've just had to kick the PAT at the end of the game to go up by 3.

 

Not as sexy, but much safer.

 

CW

[Ozymandius]

you don't go for 2 until you need to get two points. No point in eliminating yourselves from the game early. Taking the one there gives you a chance to tie the game on one drive, where if you missed the 2 pointer there, you now need two drives.

454852[/snapback]

 

I'm stoopid and need some explaining, so can you guys please elaborate on this logic? Wouldn't you want to attempt the 2-pt conversion as soon as possible, so that if you miss, you know early on that you will need two scores and can plan accordingly? If you wait until the end of the game instead to try the 2-pter and you miss, then game over, and you can't do anything about it at this point. If you attempt it early, you give yourself time to plan for the two scores, right? Why has it all of a sudden become law that you wait on the 2-pt conversion? I just don't get it. There might be something obvious I'm missing, and I'm beginning to doubt myself about this, considering Simon is on the other side here.

[bleedinblue]

You're wrong. Every coach has their strategy, but basically, you don't go for 2 until you need to get two points. No point in eliminating yourselves from the game early. Taking the one there gives you a chance to tie the game on one drive, where if you missed the 2 pointer there, you now need two drives.

454852[/snapback]

 

The score after our TD was 14-12, miss, its still 14-12, still a single score (FG nonethelsss) game, make it and its tied, no difference being down by 1 or down by 2 at that point. Absolutely no reason why not to go at that point, you can't anticipate what may happen later. I would rather go for it when I didn't need it that when I did and they know it.

[Ozymandius]

The score after our TD was 14-12, miss, its still 14-12, still a single score (FG nonethelsss) game, make it and its tied, no difference being down by 1 or down by 2 at that point.  Absolutely no reason why not to go at that point, you can't anticipate what may happen later.  I would rather go for it when I didn't need it that when I did and they know it.

454893[/snapback]

 

Agreed

[Ramius]

The score after our TD was 14-12, miss, its still 14-12, still a single score (FG nonethelsss) game, make it and its tied, no difference being down by 1 or down by 2 at that point.  Absolutely no reason why not to go at that point, you can't anticipate what may happen later.  I would rather go for it when I didn't need it that when I did and they know it.

454893[/snapback]

 

going for 2 points cost the panthers the super bowl against the pats. if the panthers kick XP's, then, vinatieri's FG would have been to tie the game, not win. Always take the points, until you absolutely need to. By going for 2 that early, you;re saying that you dont think your offense will score again.

 

getting the XP in basically 100%, so on 2 TD's you get 2 points

2-pt conversion run about 40% on average, when you'd need to make 50% just to get those same 2 points.

 

Heres the super bowl breakdown of what happend, and what should have had the panthers smartly kicked the XP's instead of going for 2: (what it would have been in parentheses)

 

NE 21, Car 10 in the 2nd half

Car scores, misses the 2: NE 21, Car 16 (NE 21, Car 17)

Car scores, misses the 2: Car 22, NE 21 (CAR 24, NE 21)

NE scores, makes the 2: NE 29, CAR 22 (NE 28, Car 24)

CAR scores, kicks XP: NE 29, Car 29 (Car 31, NE 28)

Vinatieri FG at end of the game: NE 32, Car 29 (Car 31, NE 31, game to OT)

 

always takes the 1, unless you need it late in the game...

[Ozymandius]

going for 2 points cost the panthers the super bowl against the pats. if the panthers kick XP's, then, vinatieri's FG would have been to tie the game, not win.

454924[/snapback]

Except you assume that the game would've played out exactly the same way had Carolina kicked the XP. The events of a football game aren't occurring in a vaccuum where you can just pluck out one event, change it around, and expect the rest to remain the same. Different score means different circumstances means different play means different results. You can't anticipate what will happen.

[MRW]

Except you assume that the game would've played out exactly the same way had Carolina kicked the XP.  The events of a football game aren't occurring in a vaccuum where you can just pluck out one event, change it around, and expect the rest to remain the same.  Different score means different circumstances means different play means different results.  You can't anticipate what will happen.

454961[/snapback]

That's exactly why you kick the XP early and go for two later. You have no idea how the scoring is going to shake out as the game progresses. Maybe you have opportunities to kick a couple of field goals, or score another TD, or maybe you even get a safety.

 

The only possible exception I could think of would be if you're getting blown out, but in that situation who cares?

[Simon]

I'm stoopid and need some explaining, so can you guys please elaborate on this logic?

You don't strike me stoopid, although I would be remiss if I didn't make fun of you for spelling OzymandiAs wrong.

Most teams seem to hit about 40% of their 2pt conversions. Early in a game you're going against odds by turning down a guarnteed point and taking a shot at 2. In the long run going for two too often will put less points on the scoreboard for you than will just taking the extra point.

Additionally you can't go for two early because the scoreboard makes it look sensible. Scoring dynamics and the margins of leads are very fluid in a football game due to the fact that FG's are worth 3 and safeties are worth 2. What looked like a reasonable decision at the time is likely to be a complete different scenario later in the game when the score has had the time to fluctuate. Yesterday was a fair example; if the Bills ahd gone for two after their score, odds are tehy would not have converted and in the 4th qrtr may have found themselves down 2 possessions instead of one which may have taken our best threat (Willis) out of the game. Instead they just took the guaranteed point and as a result had a chance to tie the game right until their very last possession.

As for going for the two earlier rather than later, I don't agree with that line of reasoning since you don't even know whether you will even need it later due to the fluidity of lead changes. I think it's smart to just put as many points on teh board as you can earlier and then later if a situation arises where you can gain some advantage by risking the loss of a point, then you go ahead and roll the dice if it's worth it.

Cya

[Ramius]

You don't strike me stoopid, although I would be remiss if I didn't make fun of you for spelling OzymandiAs wrong. 

Most teams seem to hit about 40% of their 2pt conversions. Early in a game you're going against odds by turning down a guarnteed point and taking a shot at 2. In the long run going for two too often will put less points on the scoreboard for you than will just taking the extra point.

Additionally you can't go for two early because the scoreboard makes it look sensible. Scoring dynamics and the margins of leads are very fluid in a football game due to the fact that FG's are worth 3 and safeties are worth 2. What looked like a reasonable decision at the time is likely to be a complete different scenario later in the game when the score has had the time to fluctuate. Yesterday was a fair example; if the Bills ahd gone for two after their score, odds are tehy would not have converted and in the 4th qrtr may have found themselves down 2 possessions instead of one which may have taken our best threat (Willis) out of the game. Instead they just took the guaranteed point and as a result had a chance to tie the game right until their very last possession.

As for going for the two earlier  rather than later, I don't agree with that line of reasoning since you don't even know whether you will even need it later due to the fluidity of lead changes. I think it's smart to just put as many points on teh board as you can earlier and then later if a situation arises where you can gain some advantage by risking the loss of a point, then you go ahead and roll the dice if it's worth it.

Cya

455499[/snapback]

 

thanks simon, at least someone else sees this clearly...take the sure point instead of chancing a 2 that may put you out of the game later on...

[AJ1]

The score after our TD was 14-12, miss, its still 14-12, still a single score (FG nonethelsss) game, make it and its tied, no difference being down by 1 or down by 2 at that point.  Absolutely no reason why not to go at that point, you can't anticipate what may happen later.  I would rather go for it when I didn't need it that when I did and they know it.

454893[/snapback]

 

This is the right answer but I can see it's beyond the comprehension level of most of our armchair coaches and the REAL coach also.

 

You don't project future scores to make the decision; you make the decision considering the risk/reward AT THE TIME.

[34-78-83]

This is the right answer but I can see it's beyond the comprehension level of most of our armchair coaches and the REAL coach also.

 

You don't project future scores to make the decision; you make the decision considering the risk/reward AT THE TIME.

455630[/snapback]

 

Fine, just be assured that there's not a coach out there that would agree with you on this

[Ramius]

Fine, just be assured that there's not a coach out there that would agree with you on this 

455647[/snapback]

 

well of course...arm chair coach is right, and 31 coaches are wrong (only 31, because bonehead mike martz would pull off a stunt like this...)

[MDH]

Popular thing seems to be to place the blame for the Bill's miserable performance the last two games on JP, the O line, the defense and/or all of the above.  It seems to me that in the Bucs game, our head coach was completely out coached.  Yesterday, Deangelo Hall goes down for most of the second quarter, leaving the Falcons with a 2nd and 3rd stinger at CB, one of which was dinged for a few plays leaving a back up saftey at corner.  As I recall, we went to 4 wideouts 4 or 5 times during that timeframe.  Yeah, JP was 10 for 23, but the 23 is as big a problem, if not bigger that the 10 in yesterdays situation.  Additonally, why we didn't go for 2 after the 1st score is beyond me.  Usually not  a big fan of it, but at that point yesterday, it simply didn't make any difference so why not try. And why the staff called for a sneak on 4th and over a yard when you have a guy averaging 5.2 per carry on the day is astounding.  Point is, you havev to be concerned about the coaching decisions the last two games.  Besides the mistake, keeping JP on such a short leash is only going to impede his progress.

454692[/snapback]

 

 

Actually its even worse than you say. The Falcons 2nd and 3rd stringer CBs didn't even suit up. Neither did their 4th. They had to sign players last week just to have the needed bodies. So when Hall went down the Falcons were missing their 1-4th string CBs and had a bunch of street free agents on the field covering Moulds and Evans.

 

As for the 2 point conversion matter, you are absolutely incorrect. A team should never go for 2 unless it is late in the game. Why go for 2, so you have a nice neat number early in the game? There are so many different scoring scenerios that can play out between then and the end of the game its not in your team's best interest to not take every single free point they can get. Unless you can accurately predict the future and know that a 2 point conversion at that very moment will be the difference between winning and losing, its a bad idea to go for 2 that early.

[ofiba]

This is the right answer but I can see it's beyond the comprehension level of most of our armchair coaches and the REAL coach also.

 

You don't project future scores to make the decision; you make the decision considering the risk/reward AT THE TIME.

455630[/snapback]

 

Ok lets use your logic. It's the 2nd quarter. You are down by 6. You are facing a 4th and goal at your opponents 8. Do you kick the field goal and take the almost guaranteed 3 points? Or do you decide that since you are down by 6, your best bet is to score 6 points and go for it? 99 percent of coaches take the 3 points based on the fact that the scoring most likely won't stop after that. Your goal isn't to have more points than the other team at halftime. You play to get as many points as you can during the course of the game. If the Bills went for 2 and missed, we would all be screaming at MM because he didn't even give JP a chance to tie it up in the final drive. Take the points unless you HAVE TO go for 2.