Scenarios for winning the division; scenarios for winning the #1 seed

[BVBILLS]

I'd love to see Buffalo win this week and be lucky enough to take the division, but I would rather they beat these guys in the playoffs.

[MDH]

If the Bills win this week (then the next 2) in an ideal world they want the Broncos to lose to GB, beat Jax then lose to KC.

 

That would set up a week 18 scenario where if the Pats lose to MIA and the Bills beat the Jets the Bills get the 1 seed.

 

Odds of all this happening aren’t good but that’s the best/easiest path to the 1.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

KC fans will be cheering for us this week. 

 

They will want Denver to have to try week 18 and not just throw the game. Denver needs to be in a spot where they have to win for the #1 seed in week 18, or else they'll lay down for the Chargers and KC will be left out even if they win out. 

 

IF NE runs away with the #1 seed Denver also has no reason to play week 18. 

 

Yeah - the issue for LA is chiefs cowboys and texans are all... essentially playoff games for both teams.  They need to win at least 1 to have that broncos game matter in the context of KC winning out. 

 

There's some serious concerns about the chargers ability to block on O, and the offense is pretty stuck in the mud the last 3 weeks.  

 

Herbert average the last 3 weeks:

12/21 - 124 yards - 1 TD 1 INT - 4 sacks for -21 yards 5 carries for 32 yards.  So if we assume the 5 carries are scrambles - That would be 30 plays that results in 135 yards, and 103 net yards passing.  That is... Dillon Gabriel levels of production.  They won 2 games like this because of some timely run plays, and takeaways from philly.  

 

[finn]

22 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

A man can dream, can't he?  

But my rational, pragmatic mind tells me that we're not winning out.  We've been too inconsistent this season, and we're too banged up right now, to believe winning out is a realistic scenario.  

 

We started the season 4-0.  But since the hospital beds filled up and Brady lost his juju, we've been a mediocre 5-4 team.  I'm hoping for a 3-1 finish but, given the trend, 2-2 might be more likely.  

Yes, but I suspect the inconsistency has to do with losing focus, which they are more likely to maintain in the playoffs, as they have in the past. And the injury train may stop (we certainly have had our share), while the injured players--Bosa, Oliver, Palmer, Bernard--all could be back for the playoffs. (I have the least confidence in Palmer; for some reason, I think he's dogging it.)

 

As for Brady... you might have a point. He's doing a bit better lately, but my confidence in him remains very low. 

[Billsfanatic8989]

Bills win out. NE goes 1-3. Or, we win out and NE goes 2-2. With one of those losses to Miami/Jets.

 

If NE wins the Jets/Dolphins games, they win the division. No matter if we win out. 

 

My question is...what if we win out and NE loses to the Jets. Not the Dolphins. Does that give us the division due to conference record?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

Bills win out. NE goes 1-3. Or, we win out and NE goes 2-2. With one of those losses to Miami/Jets.

 

If NE wins the Jets/Dolphins games, they win the division. No matter if we win out. 

 

My question is...what if we win out and NE loses to the Jets. Not the Dolphins. Does that give us the division due to conference record?

 

It would appear so - That would give NE a 4-2 divisional record (same as buffalo), and 4 conference losses.  They have to lose a divisional game otherwise they'd be 5-1 in division and win the first tiebreaker.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Not really picking any major upsets other than Miami over NE (which would be a major upset imo) - there's a plausible scenario that the chargers are win and in week 18 - while denver would finish 14-3 and win the conference with a win and earn a bye week.  Jaguars can't win out or they beat buffalo in tiebreakers as well - and they have the jets and titans on the schedule.  

Chargers - L's @ KC and @DAL

Denver - L @KC 

Jaguars - L 

 

Denver would be 14-3 with a W and would take the conference with a patriots loss, and chargers would make the playoffs with a win, or a KC loss.  Interested to see how they would schedule that.  I feel like the SNF game is trending towards panthers vs bucs or ravens vs steelers just because they're looking closer and closer to a no-frills winner gets in and loser is out.  Broncos chargers really depends on a number of other factors, but its trending towards it being a fairly high stakes game.  

 

 

[colin]

is it certain that if we win out and the pats split w the dolphins that we win the division?  It goes to like the 3rd or 4th tie breaker in that case.

 

obv, if we win out and they drop to the fins and ravens, we get the division, and frankly i think that's sort of out best (or only) shot.

 

I will say, depending on who wins the south in the case where we don't win the east (jax or hou or maybe even indy) and who else ends up as a wild card, there seems to be a fairly good chance that we will be the only wild card winner week one (say if we are at pittz, which i think is most likely).  that means that if the pats are the number one seed, they come off of a bye and host us.  a young upstart team like that, especially a vrable coached one cuz he got his titans beat by cincy when they were the 1 seed a few years back, they have a real risk of peaking early and being one and done in the playoffs.  i really want the 1 seed/division, but beating the pats as a wild card when they are the 1 seed to travel to denver for the afc chip sounds like the easiest path for our team to a chip BY MILES since we've gotten josh allen.  ragged pittz team, not ready net pats team, and then bo nix and the broncos even if all on the road is a good script.  only the pats out of all of them can stop the run, and they can't even slow down kinkaid, and we have the much better and more experienced qb (save rogers, but he's cooked).  i also don't think we get out coached in those games like we have vs ried in past.

 

in the nfl imo it's green bay or the rams.  i'd rather play the rams if we got that far, i think gb is a bad match up for us, but at that point i'd be ready for all comers.