Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?

[Mr. WEO]

what happens to this new elite Offense when Cook stops averaging over 100 YPG?

[BullBuchanan]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

what happens to this new elite Offense when Cook stops averaging over 100 YPG?

Does he have to?

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Except apparently the math says that rushing slightly more than passing is the maximum +EV move.

 i don't know where you get that from

 

in most game conditions except when WP is approaching 100 it's optimum to pass more

 

 

 

and EPA of run plays is only +EV compared to passing when WP is 13% or lower

ie teams should be passing over 70% of the time

[Don Otreply]

Secretly doing something, now what that is…, 

 

😁🍸🚬

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

 i don't know where you get that from

 

in most game conditions except when WP is approaching 100 it's optimum to pass more

 

 

 

and EPA of run plays is only +EV compared to passing when WP is 13% or lower

ie teams should be passing over 70% of the time

Well, it seems you didn't watch the video either. The argument is made there that according to game theory, you should be running 54% of the time for maximum yards per play.

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

Does he have to?

 

misdirection question. why not ask "will he?" or "why won't he?"?

 

The odds are he will not, based on historical data--this average is 50% higher than his past 2 seasons.  Also, multiplying  every RB who has played over every season over the history of the NFL, there have been under 90 100 YPG seasons total.

[Psautcsk]

13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

what happens to this new elite Offense when Cook stops averaging over 100 YPG?

We will punt a lot?

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

misdirection question. why not ask "will he?" or "why won't he?"?

 

The odds are he will not, based on historical data--this average is 50% higher than his past 2 seasons.  Also, multiplying  every RB who has played over every season over the history of the NFL, there have been under 90 100 YPG seasons total.

I dunno, wasn't a problem for Saquon or Derrick Henry.

Of course, the simple answer is, if they're trying to stop the run, it should be easier to beat them with the pass, so do that. Again, worked just fine for the Eagles when KC over committed to stopping the run.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Nerds ruin everything 

[GoBills808]

14 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Well, it seems you didn't watch the video either. The argument is made there that according to game theory, you should be running 54% of the time for maximum yards per play.

of course i watched it lol

 

it's not game theory either, it's just faulty logic

 

his proof at is based on the premise that defenses are 100% efficient in matching pass plays w 'pass defenses' (no data for what that entails) and vice versa...which we know is not the case as evidenced by the wind bowl vs the Patriots that one year

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I dunno, wasn't a problem for Saquon or Derrick Henry.

Of course, the simple answer is, if they're trying to stop the run, it should be easier to beat them with the pass, so do that. Again, worked just fine for the Eagles when KC over committed to stopping the run.

 

Sure it was:  Barkley has done to once in his career--he isn't even close this year.  Henry has done in once in the last 3--he won't get there this year.  

 

Also, in 2 of the 3 games where Cook was under 100 yards, the Bills lost, with only 200 yards passing on average.  So, no.

[BullBuchanan]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

his proof at is based on the premise that defenses are 100% efficient in matching pass plays w 'pass defenses' (no data for what that entails) and vice versa...which we know is not the case as evidenced by the wind bowl vs the Patriots that one year

If you watched it, why would you say that when he talked about it explicitly in the calculation and graphed it.

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Sure it was:  Barkley has done to once in his career--he isn't even close this year.  Henry has done in once in the last 3--he won't get there this year.  

 

Also, in 2 of the 3 games where Cook was under 100 yards, the Bills lost, with only 200 yards passing on average.  So, no.

Right, but they aren't leading the league this year. Every year is its own beast. You don't go into it with the same plan.

This year James Cook is the top dog, and barring injury, he'll likely stay that way.

Edited 9 hours ago by BullBuchanan

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If you watched it, why would you say that when he talked about it explicitly in the calculation and graphed it.

Right, but they aren't leading the league this year. Every year is its own beast. You don't into it with the same plan.

This year James Cook is the top dog, and barring injury, he'll likely stay that way.

I only see where he graphed the scenario wherein defenses react rationally to corresponding changes in run/pass%?

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If you watched it, why would you say that when he talked about it explicitly in the calculation and graphed it.

Right, but they aren't leading the league this year. Every year is its own beast. You don't into it with the same plan.

This year James Cook is the top dog, and barring injury, he'll likely stay that way.

 

Hope isn't a plan, but I appreciate your optimism.

 

Also, Henry and Barkley couldn't be more physically different than Cook.  The record book for 100+ YPG isn't littered with small RBs.

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I only see where he graphed the scenario wherein defenses react rationally to corresponding changes in run/pass%?

At 5:20 he graphs expected yards per play when the offense runs and the defense uses a run defense vs pass defense and does the same for pass.

I don't know where he got the expected yardage values for the calculation, so if we want to say that's wrong, that's fine.

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Hope isn't a plan, but I appreciate your optimism.

 

Also, Henry and Barkley couldn't be more physically different than Cook.  The record book for 100+ YPG isn't littered with small RBs.

I missed where I said I was relying on hope for anything. This whole discussion is about the Bills showing us their plan already, or at least the framework for it, and whether or not it just might be deceptively effective.

[BillsFanForever19]

49 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Then why are you even engaging with my post? The entire premise here is to talk about how Michael's insights correlate directly with what McBeane has been telling us, and if it's possible they've cracked the code.

If you just want to cry about how we should pass the ball more/better, there are already 1000 threads for that. This isn't that thread,

 

Because you're using an infamous creator who is known for taking straw man stances as clickbait. And arguing specific aspects in team sports to either magnify or diminish others. 

 

Like in the video I sent, it's not that Mahomes is great, but Andy Reid. Or the Offensive Line. No - Mahomes is great and they are also great.

 

This is no different. I don't have to watch it. The idea that bc Cook is the 2nd leading rusher in the league doesn't denote we have a great passing game "or Elite offense". This is a classic McKelvie idea for a "wtf is this?! I'll click on it" video.

 

The YPA and Attempt metrics don't mean we're not doing well just bc we don't have to. We have the on field results based evidence that that's not the case. We couldn't even beat the friggin' Falcons when we needed to pass to win. We couldn't keep up with the Patriots when we needed to pass.

 

This isn't "crying" about the passing game. This is looking at someone saying "our Offense is Elite" and "our passing game is actually pretty good" and disagreeing.

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Because you're using an infamous creator who is known for taking straw man stances as clickbait. And arguing specific aspects in team sports to either magnify or diminish others. 

 

Like in the video I sent, it's not that Mahomes is great, but Andy Reid. Or the Offensive Line. No - Mahomes is great and they are also great.

 

This is no different. I don't have to watch it. The idea that bc Cook is the 2nd leading rusher in the league doesn't denote we have a great passing game "or Elite offense". This is a classic McKelvie idea for a "wtf is this?! I'll click on it" video.

 

The YPA and Attempt metrics don't mean we're not doing well just bc we don't have to. We have the on field results based evidence that that's not the case. We couldn't even beat the friggin' Falcons when we needed to pass to win. We couldn't keep up with the Patriots when we needed to pass.

 

This isn't "crying" about the passing game. This is looking at someone saying "our Offense is Elite" and "our passing game is actually pretty good" and disagreeing.

There's no evidence to any of this, and this is an evidence based discussion.

 

He follows a rigorous, science-based approach to all of his content, and you're literally the only person I've ever seen try to dismiss him out of hand as a fraud. If he's so intellectually dishonest, I'd love to see your own proofs. Should be easy for you, right?

You can't disagree with something you don't even understand.

Edited 9 hours ago by BullBuchanan

[BillsFanForever19]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

There's no evidence to any of this, and this is an evidence based discussion.

You can't disagree with something you don't even understand.

 

What on earth are you talking about? I *literally* posted a video example in the post you last replied to...

Edited 9 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

What on earth are you talking about? I *literally* posted a video example above...

you posted HIS own video. You're trying to use his own content to prove he's a fraud and that his science is invalid? How?

I watched that video already. 

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

At 5:20 he graphs expected yards per play when the offense runs and the defense uses a run defense vs pass defense and does the same for pass.

I don't know where he got the expected yardage values for the calculation, so if we want to say that's wrong, that's fine.

I missed where I said I was relying on hope for anything. This whole discussion is about the Bills showing us their plan already, or at least the framework for it, and whether or not it just might be deceptively effective.

i got it 👍

 

ok so i have to ask- is he graphing the optimum run/pass mix on offense or did he actually graph the optimum run/pass playcall on defense? i think those are two separate things