Game week thread - Pats at Bills SNF

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Exactly he also made cam Newton look like a half decent QB in the Covid year.. he’s a great OC but a terrible HC. 

 

I admit the +2 job McDaniels did with Mac Jones. 

My opinion of him as OC is strongly influenced by his time in St Louis, where I had a ring-side seat to his destruction of Sam Bradford (who resurrected himself x3 with Shottenheimer and Shurmur, proving he could actually play QB)

From what I hear, McDaniels also was hugely involved with the offensive design and playcalling in Las Vegas and the results were....not good.

 

[PatsFanNH]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I admit the +2 job McDaniels did with Mac Jones. 

My opinion of him as OC is strongly influenced by his time in St Louis, where I had a ring-side seat to his destruction of Sam Bradford (who resurrected himself x3 with Shottenheimer and Shurmur, proving he could actually play QB)

From what I hear, McDaniels also was hugely involved with the offensive design and playcalling in Las Vegas and the results were....not good.

 

I think he needs a certain type of QB maybe.. like any other coach.

[boyst]

Just now, PatsFanNH said:

I think he needs a certain type of QB maybe.. like any other coach.

it's funny in the nfl

 

what comes first? the coach or the QB?

[PatsFanNH]

Just now, boyst said:

it's funny in the nfl

 

what comes first? the coach or the QB?

Good question! I think Maye has all the tools be a very very good QB.. I think McDaniels is a good fit for him, but as my wife says I am wrong a lot. (Also I believe they can help make each other.. Brady was an outlier he was fanatical about everything football.. most aren’t going be like that now.)

[hondo in seattle]

Bills

#2 offense (ypg)

#11 defense (ypg)

TO: +3

 

Pats

#14 offense

#16 defense

TO: -3

 

I don't think the Pats can score enough running the ball to keep up with the Bills' offense.  So can Drake Maye pass well enough against Bills (currently ranked #1 in pass D) to win the game? 

 

The older, traditional stats point to a Bills victory.  The Bills have the better offense and are more likely to win the turnover battle. 

[Beck Water]

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/khalil-shakir-whatever-it-takes-to-win-buffalo-bills

Start of the interview.  Shakir is notably unenthused when asked about how Stefon Diggs will be received and answers "no idea".  He swallows and looks to the side as though seeking counsel from a Bills PR handler (??) then offers "he was here before, and I learned so much from him about the game, but as for the fans, no idea."
 

Notably more enthused when talking about our offense and how the "everybody eats" mentality only works if "every single individual" is really bought in to that.

[BillsFan130]

20 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yes, points.  Why should one "please" not tell you points per game given up?  Points, after all, win games?  
Yes, the Bills had an opportunistic defense that forced a lot of turnovers.  They led the league in % of opponent drives ending in an offensive TO.

 

If you want to make some argument for the Bills being "bottom 12 defense", please proceed but make it more than "because that's what they looked like to my lil' 'ol Mark IV eyeballs" if you please.

 

"Except for turnovers the defense was bottom 5" kind of sounds a bit like "except for THAT, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?"

Because it doesn't tell close to the whole story.

Bills offence barely turned it over last year and rarely put them in a bad spot.

 

So of course if your offence turns the ball over like crazy, it's going to put the defence in a bad spot which is going to result in a higher points against.  And on the other end, if the offence doesn't turn the ball over much and the other team has to go 70-80 yards every time, it's going to help their PPG. Agreed?

 

Well they were 29th in 3rd down defence and I believe 25th in letting up first downs in total. There were also many stats that I don't have at the top of my head that had them ranked in the bottom half of the league.

[boyst]

9 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Good question! I think Maye has all the tools be a very very good QB.. I think McDaniels is a good fit for him, but as my wife says I am wrong a lot. (Also I believe they can help make each other.. Brady was an outlier he was fanatical about everything football.. most aren’t going be like that now.)

Brady made Belichick 

[Beck Water]

18 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

I think he needs a certain type of QB maybe.. like any other coach.

 

Well, Bradford clearly wasn't his "type".  But he was allowed to pick his QB in Denver (where as HC he was for sure running the offense) when he traded Cutler for Orton.  He was allowed to pick his QB in Las Vegas, releasing Carr and signing Jimmy Garappolo to the Big Bucks.  Offensive success did not follow.

 

 

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, boyst said:

Brady made Belichick 

He also made Bill O'Brien and Charlie Weis a lot of money. Brian Daboll has both Brady and Josh Allen to thank for his 401K.

[Brit]

2 hours ago, Low Positive said:

Josh McDaniels is a meathead too. They got a whole collection. What is the collective noun for meatheads? 

 

A McMahon of meatheads?

[PatsFanNH]

19 minutes ago, boyst said:

Brady made Belichick 

I think they made eachother.. in the beginning BB. Made Brady because most HC don’t even keep a 6th round QB around never mind make him the backup to the franchise QB that just got a huge deal.. and well Brady made BB look amazing I’d say the last 8 years because he had trash around him so often

[boyst]

1 minute ago, PatsFanNH said:

I think they made eachother.. in the beginning BB. Made Brady because most HC don’t even keep a 6th round QB around never mind make him the backup to the franchise QB that just got a huge deal.. and well Brady made BB look amazing I’d say the last 8 years because he had trash around him so often

belichick was about to be fired at the end of the season squandering bledsoe.

[Beck Water]

36 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Because it doesn't tell close to the whole story.

Bills offence barely turned it over last year and rarely put them in a bad spot.

 

So of course if your offence turns the ball over like crazy, it's going to put the defense in a bad spot which is going to result in a higher points against.  And on the other end, if the offence doesn't turn the ball over much and the other team has to go 70-80 yards every time, it's going to help their PPG. Agreed?

 

Well they were 29th in 3rd down defence and I believe 25th in letting up first downs in total. There were also many stats that I don't have at the top of my head that had them ranked in the bottom half of the league.

 

Sure, it doesn't tell the whole story.  Especially I've pointed out many times that if a team differs a lot in their defensive rank by points against  compared to yards against, it warrants a further look.  In this case, it points out that the Bills were opportunistic about punching the ball out or intercepting it. 

 

But those are defensive skills too, can you acknowledge that?   To be that good at punching out the ball or intercepting it, means it's a skill they practice and study for.

 It also points out that the Bills defensive philosophy, when they have a comfortable lead which they did in something like 6 or 7 games, sometimes isn't too worried about giving up yards.

Your points about 3rd down D and 1st downs given up are valid, but so are points where the D ranked in QB knockdowns and pressure percentage (10th and 13th I  believe), in hurries (7th); also, in Tackles for Loss (7th).  I specifically look at the first 3, because that's one of the factors that drives interceptions.

 

Overall the view I'm trying to convey is 1) turnovers don't happen in a vacuum, they represent team effort represented by some metrics 2) I don't think it tells the whole story to focus on two metrics and say "see, the defense was really a bottom feeder".

 

13 minutes ago, boyst said:

belichick was about to be fired at the end of the season squandering bledsoe.

 

"One Mo Lewis hit away from the unemployment line" - Bart Scott

 

45 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Good question! I think Maye has all the tools be a very very good QB.. I think McDaniels is a good fit for him, but as my wife says I am wrong a lot. (Also I believe they can help make each other.. Brady was an outlier he was fanatical about everything football.. most aren’t going be like that now.)

 

I actually think if McDaniels had stayed in NE instead of taking the HC gig in Las Vegas, there was a decent chance Mac Jones developed into a decent QB.  I think he had flaws, but I also think McDaniel would have refined the offense towards what he did well.

Edited Thursday at 08:53 PM by Beck Water

[PatsFanNH]

10 minutes ago, boyst said:

belichick was about to be fired at the end of the season squandering bledsoe.

Ya I doubt that is true, and it wasn’t like Brady lit it up as a QB his 1st year.. 

[BillsFan130]

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Sure, it doesn't tell the whole story.  Especially I've pointed out many times that if a team differs a lot in their defensive rank by points against  compared to yards against, it warrants a further look.  In this case, it points out that the Bills were opportunistic about punching the ball out or intercepting it. 

 

But those are defensive skills too, can you acknowledge that?   To be that good at punching out the ball or intercepting it, means it's a skill they practice and study for.

 It also points out that the Bills defensive philosophy, when they have a comfortable lead which they did in something like 6 or 7 games, sometimes isn't too worried about giving up yards.

Your points about 3rd down D and 1st downs given up are valid, but so are points where the D ranked in QB knockdowns and pressure percentage (10th and 13th I  believe), in hurries (7th); also, in Tackles for Loss (7th).  I specifically look at the first 3, because that's one of the factors that drives interceptions.

 

Overall the view I'm trying to convey is 1) turnovers don't happen in a vacuum, they represent team effort represented by some metrics 2) I don't think it tells the whole story to focus on two metrics and say "see, the defense was really a bottom feeder".

 

 

"One Mo Lewis hit away from the unemployment line" - Bart Scott

 

 

I actually think if McDaniels had stayed in NE instead of taking the HC gig in Las Vegas, there was a decent chance Mac Jones developed into a decent QB.  I think he had flaws, but I also think McDaniel would have refined the offense towards what he did well.

The Bills were elite at turnovers last year which is an extrEmely metric, no Question.

 

But to keep it simple- They were straight up just bad at getting off the field in total last year.

And going back to this conversation, my biggest concern in this game is McDaniels and Maye shredding them on 3rd downs and moving the ball with relative ease

[Beck Water]

13 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Ya I doubt that is true, and it wasn’t like Brady lit it up as a QB his 1st year.. 

 

It's been said enough that I think it probably was true.  Kraft thought they had a roster that was better than 8-8 or they wouldn't have fired Carroll. 5-11 1st year, lost first 2 games, seat hot.  

Brady did exactly what he was asked to do in that Charlie Weis offense: make the right pre- and post-snap read and make the right decision on where to go with the ball.

[boyst]

2 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Ya I doubt that is true, and it wasn’t like Brady lit it up as a QB his 1st year.. 

Lol

 

Please take as much offense to this as possible because right now it is deserved but you may be forgiven since as a patriots fan you didn't discover football until some time in mid October 2001.

 

Belichick had precious experience in Cleveland and in his narcissistic grandeur wore his welcome out there. 36-44. His success largely entailed riding the coattails of Parcells.

 

He went to NYJ as HC and chickened out, too. He got to NE and thought he would get another go at it. 

 

The Internet is impossible to search for it with all the time since 2000 was a long time ago but the NE fans wanted him gone especially the 0-1 start and 5-11 start before.

 

After Bledsoe was injured the team called and  brought in some QBs to tryout. Belichick opted to roll with what he had and was quoted as saying he will try the rookie out and rely on the defense. The speculation was that he knew the season was done and he likely wouldn't last beyond his second year with Bledsoe hurt. Bledsoe had just become the highest paid player ever, mind you.

 

Brady came in and didn't make mistakes his first year. He did just enough to get the positions to win and not give up enough to cost a loss. 

 

If not for Brady Belichick would not have been the HC the next year.

 

It's sad how Patriots fans don't know this but again, most don't know football before Sept 23rdh 2001. 

[Beck Water]

12 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

The Bills were elite at turnovers last year which is an extrEmely metric, no Question.

 

But to keep it simple- They were straight up just bad at getting off the field in total last year.

And going back to this conversation, my biggest concern in this game is McDaniels and Maye shredding them on 3rd downs and moving the ball with relative ease

 

I think I'm about to where I'll give up, but riddle me this: where did the Bills rank for # of defensive plays?  TOP?

 

Yes, it would certainly be concerning if Maye and the Pats shredded the Bills on 3rd downs and moved the ball with relative ease

[boyst]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

It's been said enough that I think it probably was true.  Kraft thought they had a roster that was better than 8-8 or they wouldn't have fired Carroll. 5-11 1st year, lost first 2 games, seat hot.  

Brady did exactly what he was asked to do in that Charlie Weis offense: make the right pre- and post-snap read and make the right decision on where to go with the ball.

Forgive him. He was either born in the 2000, doesn't know who steve Grogan is, or most likely didn't discover football until Oct 2001 when the Brady mania took over.