McBean's Drafting vs. Chiefs, Eagles, and 49ers (draft position/impact players?)

[Mikie2times]

41 minutes ago, folz said:

 

That will depend on if there are legitimate excuses or not. You call them excuses, I call them factors and circumstances.

 

I mean, yeah, if we get to the playoffs and are missing 5 defensive starters, while the other team is healthy or say only missing one guy. Yeah, that is a factor. If Josh were to miss a playoff game and we lose, yeah, that is a factor. If the referees make a horrible call on a game changing play, or multiple bad calls that all go against Buffalo, yeah, that is a factor. Rookies are not excuses (outside of at QB). This team brings them along slowly and won't have them out there if they aren't performing well. But, yeah, I really hope there is nothing to point at this year in that vein too. 

I’m curious if you think any part of it is the history of these players or who we target. As an example, would it at all be surprising to see Bernard, Benford, Rapp, or Milano go down? 2 of the 4 we just extended. We do target small players on all three levels. Many are physically maxed out. Like a Milano, who just felt like his body would just give way eventually. Even Mad Max missed several games at Kentucky this past year. I don’t know this answer but I have considered it.

 

I’m hesitant to draw too much from the injuries just because I don’t believe people have an intimate understanding of what other teams are going thru. Bengals playoff game they had half the offensive line out. Lions last year were completely depleted. We have never lost Josh and for the most part have sustained no significant injuries on offense in how many years? Meanwhile tons of teams have lost critical players that have basically knocked them out of even the playoffs. 
 

I just think leaning into the injuries as a reason is a dangerous game. Do we expect to be any healthier than last year again? Do we know relative comparisons to say how disadvantaged we have been? I don’t know if it’s all that severe in the scheme of things. Not sure and I haven’t met a poster here that had the information to really shed any light on it. 

Edited 14 hours ago by Mikie2times

[RoscoeParrish]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not really true. They got lit up by the Colts in Andy's first year when they blew a huge lead. After that before swapping out Bobby Sutton for Spags the Chiefs played six playoff games and gave up more than 22 just twice at an average of 19.5. Both to Tom Brady and the Patriots - 27 in the 2015 divisional loss and 37 in the 2018 AFCCG OT loss. They were 2-4 in those games mainly because their offense couldn't score. 

 

Their first nine playoff games with Spags as DC they kept teams under 22 just three times and the average points given up ticked up slightly. They really only got better on defense when they started drafting defense early and often. McDuffie, Karlaftis, Bolton, Chenal, Cook... etc. 

is your take that the Chiefs would have had the same postseason success with Sutton as they have with Spags?

[Mikie2times]

7 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

is your take that the Chiefs would have had the same postseason success with Sutton as they have with Spags?

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

I’m curious if you think any part of it is the history of these players or who we target. As an example, would it at all be surprising to see Bernard, Benford, Rapp, or Milano go down? 2 of the 4 we just extended. We do target small players on all three levels. Many are physically maxed out. Like a Milano, who just felt like his body would just give way eventually. Even Mad Max missed several games at Kentucky this past year. I don’t know this answer but I have considered it.

 

I’m hesitant to draw too much from the injuries just because I don’t believe people have an intimate understanding of what other teams are going thru. Bengals playoff game they had half the offensive line out. Lions last year were completely depleted. We have never lost Josh and for the most part have sustained no significant injuries on offense in how many years? Meanwhile tons of teams have lost critical players that have basically knocked them out of even the playoffs. 
 

I just think leaning into the injuries as a reason is a dangerous game. Do we expect to be any healthier than last year again? Do we know relative comparisons to say how disadvantaged we have been? I don’t know if it’s all that severe in the scheme of things. Not sure and I haven’t met a poster here that had the information to really shed any light on it. 

 

We played the Ravens without Zay Flowers and at no point have I thought our win was lessened by that fact. There are rare cases where injuries really do become too much to overcome - the Lions last year are a good example actually - but most of the time they're an annoying inconvenience, not an insurmountable obstacle.

[RoscoeParrish]

30 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I don’t mean it in a negative way.

 

I just think when talking about the Chiefs and Eagles and even Niners, we have to consider that they have changed defensive schemes (and in the case of the Eagles, offensive schemes) at least once if not multiple times in their routes to multiple Superbowls.

 

Now to be fair, it hasn’t always been positive for those teams. The Eagles defense in 2023 was horrific after they lost their coordinator. The Bills hiring Dorsey almost sank 2023. There is for sure potential downside. 

 

McDermott is an excellent coach imo and has only gotten better as a Bill. And it sounds like they are bringing in new ideas defensively. But to me, defense is the ultimate “sum of their parts” aspect of football.

 

If you had to rank importance of the Eagles or the Chiefs becoming clutch defenses, the #1 would be coordinators, imo. #2 would be the talent acquisitions and switch outs. Heck, we even saw the same thing with McD. He cut all the Rex weight, gutted the roster, and had the defense playing at a HIGHER level with some good FA adds and draft picks. 
 

 

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

I don’t mean it in a negative way.

 

I just think when talking about the Chiefs and Eagles and even Niners, we have to consider that they have changed defensive schemes (and in the case of the Eagles, offensive schemes) at least once if not multiple times in their routes to multiple Superbowls.

 

Now to be fair, it hasn’t always been positive for those teams. The Eagles defense in 2023 was horrific after they lost their coordinator. The Bills hiring Dorsey almost sank 2023. There is for sure potential downside. 

 

McDermott is an excellent coach imo and has only gotten better as a Bill. And it sounds like they are bringing in new ideas defensively. But to me, defense is the ultimate “sum of their parts” aspect of football.

 

If you had to rank importance of the Eagles or the Chiefs becoming clutch defenses, the #1 would be coordinators, imo. #2 would be the talent acquisitions and switch outs. Heck, we even saw the same thing with McD. He cut all the Rex weight, gutted the roster, and had the defense playing at a HIGHER level with some good FA adds and draft picks. 
 

 

Failure forces self reflection. The bigger the failure the more reflection required. Many teams have taken the next step as a result of an implosion. Eagles are an example of that. Our regular season success has promoted a run it back attitude. Again, I don’t know if that’s good or bad. A McD coached team is going to be + in the turnover battle almost no matter what. Partner that with an MVP QB and we will never really implode. That’s not a bad thing, but it might not be a good thing either as far as change is concerned. 

[RoscoeParrish]

3 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Failure forces self reflection. The bigger the failure the more reflection required. Many teams have taken the next step as a result of an implosion. Eagles are an example of that. Our regular season success has promoted a run it back attitude. Again, I don’t know if that’s good or bad. A McD coached team is going to be + in the turnover battle almost no matter what. Partner that with an MVP QB and we will never really implode. That’s not a bad thing, but it might not be a good thing either as far as change is concerned. 

The Eagles didn’t implode. They lost in the Super Bowl and the WC round.

[Mikie2times]

26 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

The Eagles didn’t implode. They lost in the Super Bowl and the WC round.

The way the ended the Wild Card year was a full implosion. They started 10-1 ended up losing 6 of 7 and got blown out in the wild card game. It forced both coordinators to be fired and the GM basically dictating changes to the HC or he would get canned as well. The changes resulted in what you saw this year. 
 

What would you call that?

Edited 11 hours ago by Mikie2times

[folz]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I’m curious if you think any part of it is the history of these players or who we target. As an example, would it at all be surprising to see Bernard, Benford, Rapp, or Milano go down? 2 of the 4 we just extended. We do target small players on all three levels. Many are physically maxed out. Like a Milano, who just felt like his body would just give way eventually. Even Mad Max missed several games at Kentucky this past year. I don’t know this answer but I have considered it.

 

I’m hesitant to draw too much from the injuries just because I don’t believe people have an intimate understanding of what other teams are going thru. Bengals playoff game they had half the offensive line out. Lions last year were completely depleted. We have never lost Josh and for the most part have sustained no significant injuries on offense in how many years? Meanwhile tons of teams have lost critical players that have basically knocked them out of even the playoffs. 
 

I just think leaning into the injuries as a reason is a dangerous game. Do we expect to be any healthier than last year again? Do we know relative comparisons to say how disadvantaged we have been? I don’t know if it’s all that severe in the scheme of things. Not sure and I haven’t met a poster here that had the information to really shed any light on it. 

 

The first bolded statement is a decent point. We have tended to go small on defense at certain positions (LB/Secondary) and that could be a factor in those players getting injured. And yes, we have had some injury-prone players (particularly Milano). So, no I wouldn't be surprised to see Milano or a couple of other guys injured. I do hope this is something the Bills brass has at least looked into, from all angles. But, I do think we are a much deeper team now (at most spots) that can withstand injuries a bit better than the teams from say 2020-2023.

 

The weird thing is that the first 3-4 years of the McBeane era, we were one of the least injured teams. Then from the end of 2020 to 2023 it felt like we were one of the more heavily injured teams. Was it a change in training/conditioning staff/methods, was it the type of players we were bringing in, was it just bad luck? 

 

And of course, other teams have injuries too. But, there were particular games, Bills/Chiefs 2022 for instance, where we were missing a number of key players on defense (like 5 or 6 guys) and they were only missing like one starter or whatever. It does have an affect on the game. But yes, say in the Cincy game, they were banged up too. I guess we'd have to look back at each game to see how significant the difference was on the injury report, etc. and then how much we think those losses affected the outcomes. So, I get not wanting to lay too much of the blame on injuries, but no doubt they were a factor in at least some of the playoff games.

 

To the second bolded statement. Yes, no question the Lions were depleted by injuries last year and it played a big role in the end of their playoff run. But that's the thing, the national media talked over and over about Detroit's injuries, and posters here too have brought it up a lot. But then when some of us say, well injuries played an issue for the Bills in some years, people say, aw you're just making excuses. Why do injuries factor in for Detroit, but not for Buffalo?

 

Edited 11 hours ago by folz

[Mikie2times]

28 minutes ago, folz said:

 

The first bolded statement is a decent point. We have tended to go small on defense at certain positions (LB/Secondary) and that could be a factor in those players getting injured. And yes, we have had some injury-prone players (particularly Milano). So, no I wouldn't be surprised to see Milano or a couple of other guys injured. I do hope this is something the Bills brass has at least looked into, from all angles. But, I do think we are a much deeper team now (at most spots) that can withstand injuries a bit better than the teams from say 2020-2023.

 

The weird thing is that the first 3-4 years of the McBeane era, we were one of the least injured teams. Then from the end of 2020 to 2023 it felt like we were one of the more heavily injured teams. Was it a change in training/conditioning staff/methods, was it the type of players we were bringing in, was it just bad luck? 

 

And of course, other teams have injuries too. But, there were particular games, Bills/Chiefs 2022 for instance, where we were missing a number of key players on defense (like 5 or 6 guys) and they were only missing like one starter or whatever. It does have an affect on the game. But yes, say in the Cincy game, they were banged up too. I guess we'd have to look back at each game to see how significant the difference was on the injury report, etc. and then how much we think those losses affected the outcomes. So, I get not wanting to lay too much of the blame on injuries, but no doubt they were a factor in at least some of the playoff games.

 

To the second bolded statement. Yes, no question the Lions were depleted by injuries last year and it played a big role in the end of their playoff run. But that's the thing, the national media talked over and over about Detroit's injuries, and posters here too have brought it up a lot. But then when some of us say, well injuries played an issue for the Bills in some years, people say, aw you're just making excuses. Why do injuries factor in for Detroit, but not for Buffalo?

 

But ultimately we are left with this narrative that we have been severely hamstrung by injuries. Which I don’t dismiss but has also never been verified within context. I hate that this thought lingers as one of the reasons but ultimately we have no idea. 

Edited 11 hours ago by Mikie2times

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

is your take that the Chiefs would have had the same postseason success with Sutton as they have with Spags?

 

No. But it also is my take that they wouldn't have had the same post season success without the investments they made on that side of the ball. The bigger differntial was talent.

[folz]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

But ultimately we are left with this narrative that we have been severely hamstrung by injuries. Which I don’t dismiss but has also never been verified within context. I hate that this thought lingers as one of the reasons but ultimately we have no idea. 

 

Injuries are not the reason we lost all of our playoff games, but no doubt they were an important factor in certain years (a couple of the losses). It shouldn't preclude us from looking at other reasons or factors in our playoff losses though (for instance, 2021/2022: coaching/talent/defense; 2024/2025: refs, etc.).

 

Going back to Detroit last year, they had a lot of injuries...but for some reason, even the backup players got listed in articles and posts about their injuries/losses last year. That usually doesn't happen. But, as far as their playoff game, they were missing 4 players (Hutchinson, Peko, Barnes, and McNeil) who were starters at the beginning of the year. And Anzalone was recently back from injury (so probably not at his peak).

 

But, for instance, in '23/'24 vs. Chiefs in the playoffs, the Bills were missing 5 players (Tre White, Milano, Bernard, Benford, Gabe Davis) who were starters at the beginning of the year. And Rasul Douglas was playing with a knee injury and Taron Johnson was playing through a concussion he sustained the week before. And then if you want to talk volume (in comparison to Detroit's backup players missing, etc.), the Bills were also missing both backup safeties (Rapp and Hamlin), Jordan Phillips, Baylon Spector (normally not a big deal, but with both starting LBs out...), Damien Harris, and our punter Martin was playing injured (groin if I remember correctly). And we only lost by 3 points. Not sure how some posters still don't think injuries were not a factor that year.

 

And, again, why does Detroit get a pass for last year, but the Bills don't get a pass for '23/'24?

 

Edited 9 hours ago by folz

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

We played the Ravens without Zay Flowers and at no point have I thought our win was lessened by that fact. There are rare cases where injuries really do become too much to overcome - the Lions last year are a good example actually - but most of the time they're an annoying inconvenience, not an insurmountable obstacle.

 

I think ultimately it was the case for the Bills defense in 2023 too. I know they nearly did but you just don't win playoff games without that many guys on D. And even had they got past KC in the Divisional Round it would have sunk them against Baltimore in the AFCCG IMO. 

 

That is the only year where I think injuries ultimately doomed the Bills. Have they had great luck otherwise? No. They had White and then Von suffer season enders in consecutive years - their two most talented and highest paid defensive stars - that is really unfortunate and I don't think you will find any other team in the NFL to whom that happened that way.... but losing ONE player is never legitmately the reason for a playoff defeat unless that one guy is your Quarterback. So White missing 2021, Von missing 2022, Benford going out early in 2024.... they are not excuses. They are unfortunate. But you have to pull on your big boy pants, next man up and find a way.

[Mikie2times]

15 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Injuries are not the reason we lost all of our playoff games, but no doubt they were an important factor in certain years (a couple of the losses). It shouldn't preclude us from looking at other reasons or factors in our playoff losses though (for instance, 2021/2022: coaching/talent/defense; 2024/2025: refs, etc.).

 

Going back to Detroit last year, they had a lot of injuries...but for some reason, even the backup players got listed in articles and posts about their injuries/losses last year. That usually doesn't happen. But, as far as their playoff game, they were missing 4 players (Hutchinson, Peko, Barnes, and McNeil) who were starters at the beginning of the year. And Anzalone was recently back from injury (so probably not at his peak).

 

But, for instance, in '23/'24 vs. Chiefs in the playoffs, the Bills were missing 5 players (Tre White, Milano, Bernard, Benford, Gabe Davis) who were starters at the beginning of the year. And Rasul Douglas was playing with a knee injury and Taron Johnson was playing through a concussion he sustained the week before. And then if you want to talk volume (in comparison to Detroit's backup players missing, etc.), the Bills were also missing both backup safeties (Rapp and Hamlin), Jordan Phillips, Baylon Spector (normally not a big deal, but with both starting LBs out...), Damien Harris, and our punter Martin was playing injured (groin if I remember correctly). And we only lost by 3 points. Not sure how some posters still don't think injuries were not a factor that year.

 

And, again, why does Detroit get a pass for last year, but the Bills don't get a pass for '23/'24?

 

Not trying to be a jerk here, but this is the usual stuff on the board and I don't give anybody a pass. You have no idea if our injuries are more or less. Even within the context of just playoff teams, let alone the the regular season. The Lions or the _____'s or the ____'s have nothing to do with it.

 

The injury beating crew do it without the context of what is normal and what is not normal. How can anything be abnormal if you cant establish normal? I will place my fake bet and say the Buffalo Bills from 2020-2025 have not faced an abnormal amount of injuries comparative to the league average. Are you putting your fake bet down to say that isn't the case?

 

Edited 9 hours ago by Mikie2times

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

 

If you had to rank importance of the Eagles or the Chiefs becoming clutch defenses, the #1 would be coordinators, imo. #2 would be the talent acquisitions and switch outs. Heck, we even saw the same thing with McD. He cut all the Rex weight, gutted the roster, and had the defense playing at a HIGHER level with some good FA adds and draft picks. 
 

 

 

This is where I STRONGLY disagree. It isn't any knock on Spags or on Fangio who are both among the best defensive coordinators of their generation. 

 

But is talent #1. It is ALWAYS talent #1. In both cases the defensive improvement can be tracked specifically to the point the talent was significantly upgraded. In Fangio's case the two happened simultaneously. In Spags case though the evidence is pretty clear. He became DC in 2019 and their regular season defense actually got worse, and their post season defense stayed about the same, until Brett Veach committed to getting him better talent to work with. Then it took off. 

[folz]

18 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Not trying to be a jerk here, but this is the usual stuff on the board and I don't give anybody a pass. You have no idea if our injuries are more or less. Even within the context of just playoff teams, let alone the the regular season. The Lions or the _____'s or the ____'s have nothing to do with it.

 

The injury beating crew do it without the context of what is normal and what is not normal. How can anything be abnormal if you cant establish normal? I will place my fake bet and say the Buffalo Bills from 2020-2025 have not faced an abnormal amount of injuries comparative to the league average. Are you putting your fake bet down to say that isn't the case?

 

 

Yeah, it would be too difficult to figure out the number and importance of injuries for all teams across the board and compare. So I get saying every team gets injured and should have depth anyhow, so I'm not going to weigh injuries in too much in assessing the playoff losses (or use it as an excuse for years where the injuries weren't that many or significant).

 

But, I would say 7/8 starters out or playing through a significant injury is probably above normal for winning playoff teams (but maybe I'm wrong)---unless the other team is as beat up as you are.

 

And I might put a fake bet down, but I would shorten the time frame to 2021-2023. I think those three seasons we might have been above the norm in significant injuries. But, as you said, ultimately who knows. (and I don't think you're being a jerk 👍.)

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

We played the Ravens without Zay Flowers and at no point have I thought our win was lessened by that fact. There are rare cases where injuries really do become too much to overcome - the Lions last year are a good example actually - but most of the time they're an annoying inconvenience, not an insurmountable obstacle.

 

We also played KC without their WR1 Rashee Rice (in fact they went through almost the entire season without him). 

 

In my mind you can only blame a loss on injuries for 3 reasons:

 

1) Missing an elite QB

2) Missing a DPOY type player (TJ Watt, Myles Garret, etc)

3) Missing multiple players on a specific unit

 

The Bills were decimated by injuries in 2023 at LB and secondary going into the 3rd playoff game vs Chiefs. That's the only playoff loss I would blame on injuries. 

 

It's unfortunate we didn't have Tre in 2021, Von Miller in 2022, or Benford for most of the 2024 game, but it should've been possible to overcome those injuries and put together a decent defensive game. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

I will place my fake bet and say the Buffalo Bills from 2020-2025 have not faced an abnormal amount of injuries comparative to the league average. Are you putting your fake bet down to say that isn't the case?

 

 

I think you would almost certainly be right averaged across that period. Indeed I suspect the Bills would come out slightly below average in terms of sheer volume of injuries.

 

I can't be accused of not having context across the league. I do know who the starters are and who the backups are for the other 31. And teams just don't go on deep playoff runs with the cluster injuries the Bills had on defense in the 2023 post season. I'd have  a real bet on that let alone a fake one. Teams don't make Superbowls when half their defense is backups. 

 

I would also have a fake bet that no other team over the past 8 or 9 years has lost its two highest paid defensive players to season ending injuries halfway through the year in back to back seasons. I haven't sat and gone through that properly but I have had a think and can't recall one. As I said earlier... being down one player isn't an excuse not to make the Superbowl, I'm not saying that. But it is still pretty rotten luck injury wise. 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by GunnerBill

[philholbroo]

Coaching decisions.

[RoscoeParrish]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No. But it also is my take that they wouldn't have had the same post season success without the investments they made on that side of the ball. The bigger differntial was talent.

The 2018 Chiefs had defensive talent. They had guys like Chris Jones, Dee Ford, Justin Houston, Charvarius Ward, Kendall Fuller.

 

Sure they added guys and let some guys walk but they weren’t a defense of no-names. 
 

Chris Jones was a star pre-Spags and they still sucked. Adding George Karlaftis wasn’t the difference. No more than adding Greg Rousseau was transformative for our defense.

 

Is your take that the Eagles went form worst to first defensively more because they added a starting CB and a part time CB in the draft instead of completing changing their scheme for the other 12-13 guys who were already on the roster?

 

If so, I think you’re wrong there as well.

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is where I STRONGLY disagree. It isn't any knock on Spags or on Fangio who are both among the best defensive coordinators of their generation. 

 

But is talent #1. It is ALWAYS talent #1. In both cases the defensive improvement can be tracked specifically to the point the talent was significantly upgraded. In Fangio's case the two happened simultaneously. In Spags case though the evidence is pretty clear. He became DC in 2019 and their regular season defense actually got worse, and their post season defense stayed about the same, until Brett Veach committed to getting him better talent to work with. Then it took off. 

The talent was already there in Philly and they still sucked in 2023. Mitchell and DeJean are both nice players, but they weren’t more important than Fangio.

Edited 1 hour ago by RoscoeParrish