So, those of you who have won your league

[Buftex]

was the best move you made, in the draft, or during the season, that set you apart from everyone else?

 

I won my leauge last year, for the first time (in 7 years) and I totally changed my draft stratedgy. I listened less to all the fantasy mags advice, and went with seemed logical to me.

 

After looking at the draft habits of the 10 people in my leauge, over 6 years, I noticed that most years, everyone undervalued TE's and team defenses/special teams, and overvalued widereceivers.

 

I figured that, going into last season, there were two tight ends (Gonzalez and Todd Heap) that were heads and shoulders above the rest, and another 2 or 3 that were just a notch below. So after picking two RB's and a QB with my first three picks (C.Portis, Brett Favre and Curtis Martin), I picked Gonzales in the 4th round. In previous years, he had typically gone in the 5th or 6th round (we have 17 rounds!). Everyone looked at like I was nuts, having yet to pick a wide receiver. My thougt was that Gonzales, going into last season, was week in week out, as reliable as all but a few receivers, and that all but those same few receivers, are not very consistant point scorers. It worked out brilliantly!

 

After a so-so first few weeks, Gonzales was a stud the rest of the way (his record setting Chrisrtmas Eve game nailed down my championship!), and I managed to gather a nice stable of receivers, as the season went on, by agressively scanning the waiver wires. Mushin Mohammed was a mid season waiver pick up, as was Michael Clayton of the Bucs.

 

Ironically, Clinton Portis, my first pick, was a pretty mediocre fantasy play most weeks. The points I got from Gonzales made up for Portis' so-so weeks. And, having Gonzales, made it possible for me to carry only 1 TE for most of the season (picked up Freddie Jones for TG's bye week, got little from him), and stockpile good young WR sleepers, like Clayton, and Lee Evans...

 

What was your best move?

[slothrop]

It starts with a hybrid value based drafting draft list. This enables to ensure you are not over or undervaluing players. For a great article on VBD got to footballguys.com (great site in general).

 

You can't win your league with a bad draft - but you can win it with an average draft. The single most determinative factor in my experience is how you work the waiver wire.

 

The waiver wire should be used offensively and defensively. You should pick up that rookie or backup RB who is thrust into the starting position and starts lighting it up. However, if one of your opponents key players that he likely drafted high goes down with injury, pick up that players backup on the waiverwire (if availible). Even if you don't need him. THat's how to use the waiver wire defensively.

[Guest Guest]

 

The waiver wire should be used offensively and defensively. You should pick up that rookie or backup RB who is thrust into the starting position and starts lighting it up. However, if one of your opponents key players that he likely drafted high goes down with injury, pick up that players backup on the waiverwire (if availible). Even if you don't need him. THat's how to use the waiver wire defensively.

358938[/snapback]

 

 

That is how I picked up Mushin Mohammed midway through last season. I can't remember if he was injured, or just struggling with the rest of the Panthers offense, but somebody waived him, I snatched him up, even though I didn't really need him. I figured, if he starts lighting it up, like he is prone to do, it not only gives me a good player, but it keeps somebody else from getting him! Kind of like the Yankees and the Red Sox mentality! It works better in fantasy!

[R. Rich]

Tough to remember, but one of the leagues I won (I won 2.........out of 13), I was able to pick up Jake Plummer @ QB. He hooked me up.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

You can't win your league with a bad draft - but you can win it with an average draft. The single most determinative factor in my experience is how you work the waiver wire.

 

Well said. I would only add that pulling off early-season trades can really improve your roster. Almost every year I pull off at least one blockbuster trade--usually because some league member panics early and ends up trading away a great player for low value. For instance, last year Ahman Green started super slow, so I traded for him and gave up a #2-type WR. He ended up turning in some solid performances for me down the stretch. A few years ago I did the same thing in acquring Shawn Alexander and he carried me to the championship.

[BuffBills#1]

picking up Julius Jones right before he came back from injury helped me win the championship.

[gantrules]

luck.

 

 

As much as people think fantasy games are about knowledge they aren't. Once you know the stats you just have to be lucky.

[OnTheRocks]

luck has a lot to do with it.

 

but a guy that walks into a draft with a magazine that was published in May, or an internet list from Pete Prisco or Len Pasquerelli, typically are not as "lucky" as the guy who has done his homework...(if you get my meaning).

 

the guy that has done his homework knows what RB's come out on 3rd down plays. they know what LB's play on 3rd down, they know what teams struggle punching it into the endzone and have a kicker that can make FG's.

 

here is an example....i was really high on Javon Walker going into last years draft because he finished the final 4 or 5 games in 2003 very strong. a lot of guys thought it was funny that i spent a 5th round pick on him. then somewhere along week 4, they were scratching their heads at why they took guys like Amani Toomer, or Eric Moulds, while Walker was scoring points every week.

 

So yes...luck has a lot to do with finishing first....but homework has a lot to do with consistantly finishing in the top 3 year after year.

[Bear]

After looking at the draft habits of the 10 people in my leauge, over 6 years, I noticed that most years, everyone undervalued TE's and team defenses/special teams, and overvalued widereceivers.   

358904[/snapback]

 

I have a similar strategy, but I always wait on QB's. I would have a tough time waiting on WR just because you can a few of them starting at once.

 

Every year there are QB's that surprise everyone. Last year I got Plummer in 2 of my leagues. I usually won't pick a QB until round 6-8...after I have a couple RB's, WR's, a TE, and maybe even a Defense.

I try to pick a QB (out of those that are left) who has a solid team around him and could do something pretty good. QB who could be around this year might be Palmer (if I'm lucky) or Harrington.

Normally the guys I get in the draft don't turn out that well, but by paying close attention the first two weeks I can usually get a pretty good QB by week 3. (a Plummer type)

 

I won 2 out 4 leagues last year using that method. While other factors obviously played a role, the 2 leagues I lost (and finished in the bottom three of both leagues) I wasn't able to find a QB to consistently give me points...so it is a gamble.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I have a similar strategy, but I always wait on QB's.  I would have a tough time waiting on WR just because you can a few of them starting at once. 

 

Every year there are QB's that surprise everyone.  Last year I got Plummer in 2 of my leagues.  I usually won't pick a QB until round 6-8...after I have a couple RB's, WR's, a TE, and maybe even a Defense.

I try to pick a QB (out of those that are left) who has a solid team around him and could do something pretty good.  QB who could be around this year might be Palmer (if I'm lucky) or Harrington. 

Normally the guys I get in the draft don't turn out that well, but by paying close attention the first two weeks I can usually get a pretty good QB by week 3. (a Plummer type)

 

I won 2 out 4 leagues last year using that method.  While other factors obviously played a role, the 2 leagues I lost (and finished in the bottom three of both leagues) I wasn't able to find a QB to consistently give me points...so it is a gamble.

370238[/snapback]

 

So if Payton Manning was available for your first pick, you wouldn't take him? Madness.

[R. Rich]

So if Payton Manning was available for your first pick, you wouldn't take him? Madness.

370562[/snapback]

 

Hey, some people just stick to their stragegy, no matter what.

 

In one of my leagues last year, I had the #7 pick in a 10 team league. By my pick, most of the good RBs were gone, so I used the pick on Moss. When my 2nd pick came up (snake draft, so it didn't take long), I took Manning. By the time I chose RBs, I had to settle for older players and people busted on my team by saying, "...you better hope Moss and Manning carry your team, because your RBs suck..." and stuff like that. Well, Moss got hurt, but Manning did carry my team to the top spot in the regular season standings (I finished 2nd; lost in the championship game). Oh yeah, the RBs I had:

 

Emmitt Smith: not a great year, but did give me over 900 yds and 9 rushing TDs. Decent effort.

 

The other one? Some old, broken down guy by the name of Curtis Martin.

 

Moral of the story? Go for top points scorers, no matter what position it is. W/ my top 2 picks, I got 2 of the top 11 scorers from the previous season. As you can see, I 'made do' @ RB.

[drnykterstein]

I love playing with players that over value RB's.

My first three picks last year were Moss, Harrison and Vick. People thought I was crazy, my first RB was Lee Suggs in the 4th. The only other big picks I can remember was Bulger in 8th and the (awesome!!) Buffalo Bills defense

 

So both Vick and Suggs turned out to be busts. And then my biggest free agency pickups were Ashlie Lelie and Nick Goings.

 

Sounds like a good team right? (sarcasm on)

 

I very well should have won the league, but I ended up with only second place. I forget why but I lost the championship by sitting someone I should have started. My team was really good though. It was simply a bunch of dependable players that all got me 10 pts per week and it added up. No studs, no razzle dazzle, I even ended up trading away Vick for injured McNair.

 

There were some in my league that drafted RB's with the first 4 picks. They went nowhere since they had concentrated all of their talent into one area.

 

In other words, learn to balance the talent on your team and don't rely on just one player or position.

[slothrop]

In other words, learn to balance the talent on your team and don't rely on just one player or position.

371219[/snapback]

 

Value Based Drafting takes care of that problem. I have placed in the top 3 in all my leagues since I have started using VBD. Value drafting has you taking a QB late because (other than Manning) the top 10-15 QB's are grouped very close together. Therefore you can wait and pick up more value on your roster.

 

Best explanation of VBD and VBD tool is on footballguys.com.

[Bear]

So if Payton Manning was available for your first pick, you wouldn't take him? Madness.

370562[/snapback]

 

Depends on where I picked. I don't think I would take Manning top 5..and he'd probably be gone after that.

 

If I picked 8 or 9 and Manning was available, of course I'd change my strategy. But other than Manning there isn't a QB worth taking early IMO.

[R. Rich]

Depends on where I picked.  I don't think I would take Manning top 5..and he'd probably be gone after that.

 

If I picked 8 or 9 and Manning was available, of course I'd change my strategy.  But other than Manning there isn't a QB worth taking early IMO.

371742[/snapback]

 

Like I said before, I go for the top scorers, regardless of position. It worked well for me last year (1st in reg season; lost in title game in playoffs), so I'll stick w/ it.

[The Avenger]

Value Based Drafting takes care of that problem. I have placed in the top 3 in all my leagues since I have started using VBD.  Value drafting has you taking a QB late because (other than Manning) the top 10-15 QB's are grouped very close together. Therefore you can wait and pick up more value on your roster.

 

Best explanation of VBD and VBD tool is on footballguys.com.

371226[/snapback]

 

VBD is key to a successful draft and season. You have to get VALUE for your picks. You have to understand that it may be better to go for a TE who produces 30% more than the next guy than it is to get a RB who will score only marginally more than your other options.

 

That said, in order to get VBD to work you MUST understand your league's scoring and which positions put up points. Most leagues have scoring systems that result in a premium being placed on RBs, so they go fast. However, some leagues have scoring systems that put value on QBs - you have to know how your system works to evaluate where to assign value.

 

The strategy I've always used (and has worked well for me) is to take guys who are solid at a position rather than a superstar and take a few of them - chances are one will do better than expected and you also aren't so dependent on a guy who could get injured and ruin your season. Young guys (rookies) often fit that bill - a risk, but with upside. Also, when drafting pay attention to who is likely to get the ball - you can't score if your guys isn't getting the carries or the catches.

 

Finally, I'd advocate an aution draft - hands down, the best way to draft. Lots of strategy on draft day and the ability to play it so that you find plenty of value and make sure others overpay for their players.

[hoser12]

Last year my team won it because I picked Bills D and Jason Witten with 9th and 12th round picks. Getting a decent tight end late guarantees WRs will be ok.

 

I have a keeper dilemna this year though. Culpepper without Moss or Alexander threatening that he wants more dough???? Any ideas? I am leaning towards Culpepper.

[wmcgahee69]

I won 3 out of 8 leagues last year. In those leagues, I was strong at HB. It depends on your league's settings, but HBs are usually the most important. A good HB over an average one can make a huge difference whereas a good WR over an average one isn't as big. Also, you have to make the right moves and hope your gambles pay off (like picking up JJ last year). So, yeah, luck plays a big part too.

[Buftex]

I love playing with players that over value RB's.

My first three picks last year were Moss, Harrison and Vick. People thought I was crazy, my first RB was Lee Suggs in the 4th. The only other big picks I can remember was Bulger in 8th and the (awesome!!) Buffalo Bills defense

 

So both Vick and Suggs turned out to be busts. And then my biggest free agency pickups were Ashlie Lelie and Nick Goings.

 

Sounds like a good team right? (sarcasm on)

 

I very well should have won the league, but I ended up with only second place. I forget why but I lost the championship by sitting someone I should have started. My team was really good though. It was simply a bunch of dependable players that all got me 10 pts per week and it added up. No studs, no razzle dazzle, I even ended up trading away Vick for injured McNair.

 

There were some in my league that drafted RB's with the first 4 picks. They went nowhere since they had concentrated all of their talent into one area.

 

In other words, learn to balance the talent on your team and don't rely on just one player or position.

371219[/snapback]

 

I guess I am one of those who usually over values running backs. After always taking a QB with my first pick, I came to realize that people who have two good running backs typically win their leauge. The way things are looking now though, there seems to be more good running backs than in the past. I will still likely take one with my top pick (unless I somehow get the #1 pick, it would be nuts not to take Manning), and try to get two solid starters in my first three rounds. Last year, I picked Portis #1, Marvin Harrison #2 and Brett Favre #3. Favre was great week and week out, while Portis and Harrison were up and down all year.

[LabattBlue]

I love playing with players that over value RB's.

371219[/snapback]

It all depends on how many teams are in the league. I am in a 14 team league which requires that you start 2 RB's. By the end of the 3rd round, most teams have selected 2 RB's(some will even take 3 in 3 rounds) and if you are one of the teams that hasn't, you are basically looking at a crapshoot for a starting RB, let alone depth at RB. This poses a problem down the line because nobody usually has great depth at RB, so trading for one is virtually impossible, even if you are strong at another position.

 

just my 2 cents.

[drnykterstein]

It all depends on how many teams are in the league.  I am in a 14 team league which requires that you start 2 RB's.  By the end of the 3rd round, most teams have selected 2 RB's(some will even take 3 in 3 rounds) and if you are one of the teams that hasn't, you are basically looking at a crapshoot for a starting RB, let alone depth at RB.  This poses a problem down the line because nobody usually has great depth at RB, so trading for one is virtually impossible, even if you are strong at another position.

 

just my 2 cents.

375053[/snapback]

Yeah, rules of the league were

2 RB's/2WR's or 3WR's/1RB. 12 man league.

most teams in the league went 2/2. for half of the games I went 3/1 and then when I was able to dig up 2 starting RB's I went 2/2.

 

my general starting linup was

bulger/goings/suggs/moss/harrison/mcmichaels/akers/bills

and somehow that linup dominated every week (only near the end of the season though). someone from my team stepped up every week.

 

there were two players in my league that went RB in the first 4 rounds. neither of them made the playoffs.

 

also I rember how i lost the championship now. I started volek instead of bulger, that was the week volek got 2 fantasy points. suck suck suck, why did I not trust my proven starter.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I won 3 out of 8 leagues last year. In those leagues, I was strong at HB. It depends on your league's settings, but HBs are usually the most important. A good HB over an average one can make a huge difference whereas a good WR over an average one isn't as big. Also, you have to make the right moves and hope your gambles pay off (like picking up JJ last year). So, yeah, luck plays a big part too.

374161[/snapback]

 

This is my philosophy as well. RBs make you or break you. A healthy priest Holmes catapulted me to an 8-0 start and a spot in the championship game.

 

Of course, when he got hurt, I was scrambling to find his replacement. Fortunately, I had Donovan McNabb on my squad as well.

[Thorolf]

So if Payton Manning was available for your first pick, you wouldn't take him? Madness.

370562[/snapback]

 

In my opinion, the 'madness' is taking Manning in the first round.

 

Think about it... he had a career year last season that he is, quite honestly, VERY unlikely to repeat. But even if he does match last year's numbers - he was typically a third or fourth round pick last year. How many of your league champions had him as their QB?

 

I was in 13 leagues last year. He was the QB on exactly ONE - and that team also had Shaun Alexander, a couple of good receivers, and Antonio Gates.

 

Now, he is being taken in the first, and I am not a fan of the tactic. I see guys who no longer have a first round RB (70-75% chance to be in the top-10), and so must rely on a second-round RB to succeed (about 40% chance to be in the top-10). Then, they will normally have to take an RB in the third round because starters are getting scarce (unlikely to make it to the top-10 or -15). In a league that starts 2 RBs, by this point the team has sacrificed approximately 12-15 points per game in order to gain 5 by locking up Manning.

 

But wait, there's more. Because many people will have a receiver by the end of the third round, our fateful Manning picker now is unable to get a first-tier WR, and will often have a difficult time finding a second-tier WR. Now, other guys start going for QBs, so the draft begins to even out, but it is rarely looking all that good for the guy who took Manning.

 

Maybe I'll be proven wrong and Manning will carry an otherwise weak team on his shoulders - but I doubt it. He may score 5-10 points per game higher than, say, the #10 to #15 QBs, but that isn't enough to make up for the loss of points taken by backing up the skill position players by at least a round each.

[Buftex]

In my opinion, the 'madness' is taking Manning in the first round.

 

Think about it... he had a career year last season that he is, quite honestly, VERY unlikely to repeat. But even if he does match last year's numbers - he was typically a third or fourth round pick last year. How many of your league champions had him as their QB?

 

 

378209[/snapback]

 

 

Wow, that has to be a typo! You were in 13 leauges last year, and Manning was typically a 3rd or 4th round pick, in each? He has gone in the top 5 each of the last 4 years in my leauge, he was #1 overall last year.

 

Anyway, I generally agree with you about QB's, but Manning is the one QB who I would make the exception for. He had a career year last year, and played (and generally plays) at a very high level over the last 3 years or so. He threw 49 friggin' TD's man! Even if he doesn't repeat that feat, I bet, barring injury, he still throws somewhere in the 40 range. If you can get a QB who tops 30, you are doing great, but 40? I am not sure why you think his numbers will fall off so damatically. Remember, his playoff meltdowns don't mean anything in FF. He is the closest thing to Marino going right now, and is still very young, injury free, and has basically the same cast returning as last year.

[Thorolf]

Nope... no typo. The ADP on Manning from most draft sites frequently had him in the third-to-fourth rounds last year.

 

And it's not that I think his numbers will drop dramatically, but that they WILL drop. If he couldn't carry a guy's team last year with a career season being drafted in the third or fourth rounds, where is the logic that says he can more than make up for a stud RB and pushing your RB2 and WR1 back at least a round?

 

Manning is no exception. He's a stud QB, but in most leagues today he simply is not worth a first round pick. The difference in the RB and WR corps for guys who have taken Manning so far this year is often quite painful to look at. One of the guys I work with recently drafted in a CBS Sportsline Experts league, and one of those guys took Manning in the early first round. His RBs and WRs were, frankly, horrible. He's going to NEED Kevan Barlow and Travis Henry to be studs just to be mediocre, IMO.

 

I never like leaving my future entirely to luck or 'deus ex machina'... and these guys who are taking Manning in the first (especially the upper portion of the first) are all too often relying on divine intervention to transform their mid-round RBs into studs...

 

I should note that I'm not just making things up here... I am either in, or familiar with several hundred drafts, and have been for the last few years. There are guys I work with who are in favor of Manning being drafted in the LATE first, and we have some good discussions about it. We will see at the end of the year who is right, but at this point I feel pretty strongly that I am. If you are in a competitive league with guys who generally follow the stud-RB theory, I simply do not believe taking Manning in the first is a wise move.

 

Now, as I alluded to earlier, if you are in a league with guys who do NOT follow the stud-RB theory, or you are drafting with monkeys, then you can afford to take him and stock up on the stud RBs that the other guys did not draft in the first... but I don't play in any of those leagues.

 

So, to sum up... evaluate your leaguemates, and look for any scoring rules that dramatically reduce the value of an RB in comparison to QBs and WRs. If things are fairly standard, then it's gotta be an RB.

[slothrop]

Nope... no typo. The ADP on Manning from most draft sites frequently had him in the third-to-fourth rounds last year.

 

And it's not that I think his numbers will drop dramatically, but that they WILL drop. If he couldn't carry a guy's team last year with a career season being drafted in the third or fourth rounds, where is the logic that says he can more than make up for a stud RB and pushing your RB2 and WR1 back at least a round?

 

Manning is no exception. He's a stud QB, but in most leagues today he simply is not worth a first round pick. The difference in the RB and WR corps for guys who have taken Manning so far this year is often quite painful to look at. One of the guys I work with recently drafted in a CBS Sportsline Experts league, and one of those guys took Manning in the early first round. His RBs and WRs were, frankly, horrible. He's going to NEED Kevan Barlow and Travis Henry to be studs just to be mediocre, IMO.

 

I never like leaving my future entirely to luck or 'deus ex machina'... and these guys who are taking Manning in the first (especially the upper portion of the first) are all too often relying on divine intervention to transform their mid-round RBs into studs...

 

I should note that I'm not just making things up here... I am either in, or familiar with several hundred drafts, and have been for the last few years. There are guys I work with who are in favor of Manning being drafted in the LATE first, and we have some good discussions about it. We will see at the end of the year who is right, but at this point I feel pretty strongly that I am. If you are in a competitive league with guys who generally follow the stud-RB theory, I simply do not believe taking Manning in the first is a wise move.

 

Now, as I alluded to earlier, if you are in a league with guys who do NOT follow the stud-RB theory, or you are drafting with monkeys, then you can afford to take him and stock up on the stud RBs that the other guys did not draft in the first... but I don't play in any of those leagues.

 

So, to sum up... evaluate your leaguemates, and look for any scoring rules that dramatically reduce the value of an RB in comparison to QBs and WRs. If things are fairly standard, then it's gotta be an RB.

379444[/snapback]

 

 

A whole lot of words to say that Value Based Drafting is the only way to go. The key word is your draft the player with the most VALUE and not necessarily because he scores the most points. For example, Hasselbeck scores twice as much points as Tony Gonzolez - but Gonzolez has twice as much VALUE. If you do not understand this you are destined to lose your league - just give your money away.

 

I would NEVER draft MAnning before the third round because I would be sacrificing too much value at other positions. I can pick up great value at QB in the rounds 5-7 while maximizing value at my other positions.