corta765 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Yesterday I did the AFC with post draft rankings so today brings the NFC which honestly is way harder. The NFC lacks the premier passers as they all seem to exist in the AFC as the NFC is in a point of transition. So this has created a vastly more open conference with more questions then answers across the board: Title Contenders... With A Small But Philadelphia Eagles- Without a doubt the class of the NFC with the most complete lineup and offense that is so fun to watch. They are the easiest team to bet on at this point in the NFC. BUT they were incredibly healthy last year, the defense brought in some good young talent but jettisoned a lot of impact vets, both coordinators left, and they have went from the easiest schedule in the NFL to middle of the road. Attrition will come because it is natural; the Eagles are by far the odds on favorite for the division, but it is certainly plausible they lose a few tight games to KC/BUF/Top NFC foes and all the sudden DAL/NYG ties or squeaks past for the division. San Francisco 49ers- Someday... well maybe Kyle Shanahan will get a competent starter healthy for a full season. Until then the QB position is again a ? as Purdy is recovering and may not play at all, Trey Lance is coming back from injury and who knows what he is, and Sam Darnold is in the hopper for a career revival until he gets the plague. They seemingly have the most complete lineup year in year out, but the consistent question mark there/injuries always seems to move their expectations around. Pretty Sure Their Good But... Dallas Cowboys- I get it is in vogue to bash and make fun of Dallas because... well it is. Realistically they had a very good team last year that ran into the 49ers buzz saw of a defense. I have felt Dallas is due to finally break through forever and the talent is certainly there. BUT this team employs Mike McCarthy who just fired Kellen Moore whose offense had been top 5 for years now so they can run the ball more and to limit turnovers. He actually said that. Also at some point Dak has to show he is not a sieve in the playoffs when it matters and he is not Tony Romo 2.0. Great regular season with Meh playoff years. Seattle Seahawks- They had a superb rookie class last year, got Geno back for a decent contract, added some great rookies, and the division has fallen off as ARZ and LA look to be down. They could easily be a sleeper 1 seed pick without too much thought as their schedule has some real chances to stack wins. BUT can Geno prove last year wasn't a one year wonder, he doesn't need to be perfect but his play just needs to remain steady. Also can the defense continue improving as their is some talent, but they were exposed on the ground last year. Detroit Lions- Everyone's favorite new kid to the block nearly pulled off a playoff appearance last year. This year the division is more open then its been in three decades and the Lions return a top flight offense with additions to their defense that hopefully help. The draft was a bit lackluster as they used capital at non premium places, but overall they have a very sound competitive roster. Now can they finally prove it? On paper they should win the division pretty handily, but Detroit has not won a division crown since the first Bush presidency and they have a single playoff win in the SB era. Like the Bills drought slaying that type of history is a real thing if your going to ascend time to put the pedal to the metal. Due For Regression, But It Is The NFL & The NFC Is A Mess So Maybe Their OK New York Giants- The Giants got some major luck in wins in terms of turnovers and missed field goals that allowed a fun season to happen. As a Bills fan I loved seeing Daboll/Schoen have success and long term I absolutely think they are building a good team. They made some solid moves in the offseason to certainly add more talent to the roster. BUT every year a team comes out of a playoff year where you look and say "yea they got a lot of breaks last year" and then things swing back. At the same point Daboll unlocked Jones to be a competent QB and maybe he gets more passing out of him this year. The division being what it is with PHI/DAL they still feel 3rd by a decent margin also. Minnesota Vikings- They were historically the luckiest 13-3 team ever as virtually every break in existence happened for them, the reality came harsh and swiftly in the playoffs. Still the offense has pieces that create a formidable attack and Cousins is at least solid at QB which means something. But like the Giants what happens when the breaks go the opposite way and a defense last year which already was porous has to pick up the slack even more. This is the last year of Cousins in Minnesota so he has something to play for as it has been pretty evident they are looking to move on from him. One Of These Teams Will Make The Playoffs Because Sports Are Weird Washington Commanders- Somehow they beat the Eagles last year in Philly none the less and just missed the playoffs at 8-8-1. The offense has more talent then people realize and coach Ron Rivera is not bad either, but their QB options are just putrid. I mean maybe Sam Howell actually shows some real potential, but they look like a 6-11 Bills drought team that hangs "in the hunt" for a bit before reality hits and they proceed to finish drafting top 10. The major win for Commander fans is Dan Snyder exiting the picture finally. Perhaps though they catch the Giants to leap frog and as the NFC destroy itself for a Wild Card spot. Chicago Bears- They have added a lot of talent across the board so this should be a much improved squad just because of that alone. Division wise it is open, but the Bears need to prove they are not to be taken lightly and win some games before we talk about that. A 7-10 year is still tremendous progress given where they have been especially if the offense comes along, but a few bounces push teams in the playoffs every year. Green Bay Packers- Sometimes to move forward you have to take a step back. Rodgers is finally gone and Jordan Love has the opportunity to make his mark. The Packers roster has talent, Love has a full offseason to be the guy, and LaFleur has been a capable head coach. Still first year growing pains are real for QBs and even with Love being around for a bit it is unlikely he hits the ground running. BUT given the division if Love plays more then capable perhaps this is not a transition year. The NFC South Before I say a word about about any of these teams this is my annual announcement that the division structure is beyond stupid and we should be back to two eight team divisions which would forever eliminate bad division winners as well as reward wild card teams that actually had a strong season but finished behind a great PHI or SF team (for example). This is without a doubt the greatest flaw to me of the NFL and until it is addressed it will forever allow undeserving teams a playoff spot and home game. New Orleans Saints- Their OK and just brought in Derek Carr who at times is a top 10 passer and at other times very very average. BUT he is the best QB now in the NFC South and the offense has plenty of pieces to put together a pretty good attack. The defense is OK and Dennis Allen as a coach exists so there is that. They feel like the default pick for the division but that is like getting excited about a grilled cheese. Atlanta Falcons- Their offense actually is pretty cool as their is some real talent there... and then Desmond Ridder is their QB and they showed zero desire to improve the position. The best 3rd round picks at QB the last two decades have been Russell Wilson, Matt Schuab, & Nick Foles. Maybe Ridder is decent enough to make the offense formidable to win the division but history says no. The defense is meh and they have went 7-10 the last two years so they probably will again. Tampa Bay Bucs- They are right back to where they were pre Brady which was a roster with some good talent on it and no good option at QB. I could perhaps buy Baker Mayfield having a little revival if Bruce Arians was the head coach but Todd Bowles is the guy so that is that. Honestly they were benefit from a 3-14 year and getting one of the top 2 picks then trying to win, but the rosters talent will probably push them out of that spot. Carolina Panthers- Honestly this is the one fun and intriguing team in this division. Frank Reich has had great success with multiple QBs and is well respected league wide so he is a perfect coach for Bryce Young. Their talent is OK in some areas while needing help in others, but the roster is not barren. They probably are more likely a year away from any meaningful gains, but rookie QBs have come into weak divisions like this and pulled worst to first in the past. Maybeeeee the Panthers get lucky? Caleb Williams & The 2024 Draft Arizona Cardinals- They have probably the worst roster talent wise in the NFL and to their new coach/GMs credit they loadedddd up on picks for the future to reset the base. Kyler Murray is in a critical prove it year as when healthy he is a decent starter, but the money invested does not match the play. He also is returning from a devastating knee injury and very few players who use mobility the way he does hit full form again. Honestly the worst case scenario for Arizona might be winning 5-6 games where Murray is still up and down taking them out of the running for the top 2 picks. LA Rams- Unlike the Cardinals I don't see the Rams bordering on trying to tank their team and McVay as an offensive mind raises any offense. After being one of the better squads in the NFL since 2017 they now are paying the price for constantly moving draft picks as the roster is going to need a new base of talent to build from. Sure if Stafford is healthy and Kupp maybe the offense flows enough to make a light run towards a wild card spot as Aaron Donald is enough of an issue on defense to make things happen and keep them ok. But it feels more likely Stafford only plays a few games as his injuries' stay, the Rams take their lumps for a year, and end up top 5 in the draft with a chance to truly bring in a new gunslinger at QB. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scuba guy Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Thanks for the great work. I wonder given your tier criteria how the afc tiers stack up to the nfc. 😊 thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Fan Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 @corta765 like the analysis.... however I do disagree with you about Grilled Cheese. Add some tomato soup to the mix and you have something special and fulfilling! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corta765 Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 17 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said: @corta765 like the analysis.... however I do disagree with you about Grilled Cheese. Add some tomato soup to the mix and you have something special and fulfilling! Haha I am big grilled cheese fan so respect to the GC when done well or mixed with tomato soup! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corta765 Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, scuba guy said: Thanks for the great work. I wonder given your tier criteria how the afc tiers stack up to the nfc. 😊 thanks Honestly they don't stack up. AFC is so QB heavy by comparison it is far easier to buy any of Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Rodgers, Lamar making a run to the title just because of the level of QB play they have shown and over a consistent period of time. The NFL favors passers now and in a sense I think the way the NFC dominated the AFC from the mid 80s until 98 might be drifting back towards that as the AFC is just so top heavy and deep. Hurts is right now the only QB in the NFC that has actually proven to have made a true run right now. Stafford has but his injuries and their lack of depth make it hard to see them as a viable contender. Dak & Cousins haven't, Goff was guided by a genius at HC who liked him so much he dumped him, Carr hasn't even won a playoff game, and the 49ers the QB spot is a question as their best kid tore his elbow up. After that the new kids like Fields, Love, & Young all have so much to prove. Geno Smith had a great year but is a one year wonder or is this who he is now. The QB landscape itself has change over the last few years as many past legends retired so the new kids are driving the bus and all of those kids are in the AFC right now or the one maybe trusty vet just arrived in the case of Rodgers. The Eagles and 49ers can hang with any of the top AFC teams so that is fine and the Lions on paper look to me formidable but again were back at questions. It will be fascinating how it all breaks down over the next 2-3 years. For the AFC other then Mahomes I expect over the next decade all the QBs just take turns getting their shot in the dance with Mahomes getting his share. It is why I have said Buffalo probably gets one crack and if they win maybe one more, loss and that is probably it. Mahomes is as close to Brady as it will come but even Brady had down stretches for a few years at points where they crapped out in the playoffs and that will happen too. Edited May 10, 2023 by corta765 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 'Tiers' or 'tears'? 🤔 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Fan Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 1 hour ago, corta765 said: Haha I am big grilled cheese fan so respect to the GC when done well or mixed with tomato soup! hot ham and cheese pressed is just amazing while on the subject! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Kyler Murray singed a huge deal a year ago. Not sure how it is a prove it year for him---he's essentially untraceable, especially if he has a bad season. AZ would eat 40 million cap hit all in 2024 and the next team ready for a bad QB will pay him 125 million over 3 years. Stafford played in 9 games last year, lost 6. McVay bubble has burst. Meanwhile, the QB he kicked to the curb had a very solid season with a meathead HC and a career position coach as OC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corta765 Posted May 11, 2023 Author Share Posted May 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said: Stafford played in 9 games last year, lost 6. McVay bubble has burst. Meanwhile, the QB he kicked to the curb had a very solid season with a meathead HC and a career position coach as OC. Sorry but Goff is above average Cousins esq not elite. Every coach would take the trade to win a SB even with a down season after. Goff has always needed to be force fed a user friendly scheme, he does well with it but he never has been one to elevate a team on his own. If he could he would still be in LA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 12 hours ago, corta765 said: Sorry but Goff is above average Cousins esq not elite. Every coach would take the trade to win a SB even with a down season after. Goff has always needed to be force fed a user friendly scheme, he does well with it but he never has been one to elevate a team on his own. If he could he would still be in LA. Cousins? Anyway, the point is that Goff is being "force fed" a "scheme" by some Joe Blow....and he's doing just fine. Meanwhile, with an "elite" QB coming off a SB win, Future Hall Of Fame HC McVay and the Rams crashed and burned. In 2 seasons, Goff took the 5-11 Stafford Lions to 9-8 and, but for a bad break (one of the worst ref call ever, putting Seattle into the payoffs), were a playoff caliber team that beat Aaron Rodgers twice--including at home in the last game with a playoff spot on the line for the Packers. "Hasn't elevated"? Look at that Lions roster... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnBonhamRocks Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Thanks for the great work! I am higher on the Saints and to a lesser degree Rams. I think Carr will get that offense moving and as long as Stafford is healthy the Rams have a playoff chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.