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Kubiak on Miami-Bills game: Missing in Action Screen Game located


Hapless Bills Fan
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3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

*chuckle*

 

Correct - Allen's pocket time, which Pro Football Reference defines as "average time between snap and throwing the ball or collapse of the pocket" is listed as 10th, but tied for 6th (must be differences in the 2nd digit, not shown). 

 

That's being given a good amount of time to throw - though I'm uncertain as to how they define it - if Allen rolls out before the pocket collapses and buys himself an extra second, does that inflate this metric?  Just as Allen has the 2nd best sack % in the league, but that probably does not speak to OL quality because he's so good at escaping pressure and evading sacks.

 

Some things, like # of hits, absolutely do reflect how long the QB holds the ball.  When Big Ben Roeth was playing a quick passing game last season where he got the ball out before pressure got there, he had one of the lowest hit % in the league because the ball was gone long before the rushers got there. 

 

Unfortunately Pro-football-reference doesn't explain how a bunch of their stuff is calculated.  I suspect they get their stats from somewhere else who might define more fully but they don't say where.  I'd like to understand how they define hurries, for example.  If Allen has to throw perhaps before he wants to, but he's on his 3rd read and meanwhile he's got 2 guys open short whom he's not choosing, is that a hurry?

 

Stats usually mean something, but not always what one thinks they mean.

 

 

That latter could be.  And they did look kind of sketchy at first, but they seemed to make adjustments and settle in, in the 2nd half.

 

We also really need to look at the total amount of time the QB holds onto the ball before throwing. I'm going to guess that Allen is near the top in the league of total amount of time to throw. But it would help to see those numbers. 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It weakens your argument that the Bills have a below average o-line when it comes to pass protection.  I thought in the 2nd half the line did a pretty good job in pass protection allowing him to hit Beasley on some key 3rd down conversions.

 

They did play better in the second half.  Miami also changed their scheme in the second half.  Playing decent for a half of football doesn't make the line good though.

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7 hours ago, eball said:

 

I believe the point of Kubiak’s analysis, and Hap’s posts, is that Josh himself contributes significantly to those statistics by being stubborn and waiting for big plays to develop rather than getting the ball out of his hands to open receivers quickly.  I don’t have the numbers in front of me but I believe Josh’s time from snap to release is likely among the longest in the league, which backs up that assertion.

 

Edit:  Whoops, sorry @Motorin' — I see you brought this up above!  Great minds…

 

 

 

 

2.4 seconds is the average that the pocket holds up for.  That is not really holding the ball too long IMO.  Yes he holds it longer than that on plays but that's because he is escaping the pocket/routes are longer developing and a combination of things. Yes sometimes Josh is at fault.  Thats a different stat though.

 

If Josh threw to the outlet running back on average, this board would be complaining that all he does is take the check down and rightfully so.  Taking the check down all the time is not going to move the ball.  It might on some downs.  Our offense is not designed to take the outlet on half the plays. Our YAC for our targets are bottom of the league.  

 

I agree with the Kubiak stuff but we are talking a handful of plays throughout an entire game.  Our o line is not only bad for just a handful of plays.  They aren't good at run protection.  They are slightly better but not good enough at pass protection.  Most other QBs behind this line would be taking sacks or throwing INTs because they aren't as mobile or strong as Josh.

 

People wonder why our red zone percentage is down.  This starts with the trenches.  We cant run the ball in the red zone effectively.  Nor can we on short yardage anywhere else on the field.  So again our team is one dimensional in this aspect and its not gonna go well when we aren't playing the Dolphins and the Jags of the league.  It makes it too easy on a defense for a team that has good defense and has good coaching.

 

Yes, we can still win a super bowl but that doesn't take away from a flaw on our team.  I don't typically speak of the teams flaws because I am just excited to watch Bills football. The line is that bad IMO that its worth discussing.  Other people seem to think our line is good and I just don't get that.  Josh is masking it more than he is hurting it.

And yes I misread one stat because I had the column backwards.  I made an error.  I admit the error.  I still stand by everything else I have said.

Edited by Scott7975
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18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

...

 

 

I don't see anything here about how we've got the worst OL in the league that simply doesn't give Allen the time he needs to function.  Allen can lead the Bills to wins behind this OL; he simply has to keep his composure and take what the defense gives him, even if that means passing up some of the "kill shots"

 

FIrst, I really don't care what Kubiak thinks.  I watch all the same games he does.  I'm a grown man and can form my own opinion.

 

And having watched football for 50 years or so, I think our OL is average-at-best at pass pro.  I think they're below average at run blocking.  But I'm not sure who - if anyone - thinks we have the "worst OL in the league."

 

For our passing game to get better, our OL has to block better, Allen needs to make better decisions, and Daboll needs to make better play-calls.  It would be awesome if all those things happened. 

 

But let's be real, our passing game right now - despite its deficiencies - is awfully darn good.  

 

 

 

 

Edited by hondo in seattle
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8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

*chuckle*

 

Correct - Allen's pocket time, which Pro Football Reference defines as "average time between snap and throwing the ball or collapse of the pocket" is listed as 10th, but tied for 6th (must be differences in the 2nd digit, not shown). 

 

That's being given a good amount of time to throw - though I'm uncertain as to how they define it - if Allen rolls out before the pocket collapses and buys himself an extra second, does that inflate this metric?  Just as Allen has the 2nd best sack % in the league, but that probably does not speak to OL quality because he's so good at escaping pressure and evading sacks.

 

Some things, like # of hits, absolutely do reflect how long the QB holds the ball.  When Big Ben Roeth was playing a quick passing game last season where he got the ball out before pressure got there, he had one of the lowest hit % in the league because the ball was gone long before the rushers got there. 

 

Unfortunately Pro-football-reference doesn't explain how a bunch of their stuff is calculated.  I suspect they get their stats from somewhere else who might define more fully but they don't say where.  I'd like to understand how they define hurries, for example.  If Allen has to throw perhaps before he wants to, but he's on his 3rd read and meanwhile he's got 2 guys open short whom he's not choosing, is that a hurry?

 

Stats usually mean something, but not always what one thinks they mean.

 

 

That latter could be.  And they did look kind of sketchy at first, but they seemed to make adjustments and settle in, in the 2nd half.

 

The stat is simple. Its the time until either the pocket collapses or the QB throws the ball.  Which ever comes first.  Josh holding the ball past a collapsed pocket would not inflate the number because the pocket would have already collapsed and timer stopped.  

 

Agree with the Ben Roeth comment.  Hits could be reflected by how long the QB holds the ball.  Our O is not designed as a quick pass game like Big Bens was though. So its not just all on Josh in that sense.

 

As explained above, pro football reference does explain the calculation clearly. I mean this is pretty clear: "PktTime -- Average time the QB had in the pocket between the snap and throwing the ball or pressure collapses the pocket, in seconds."  As for hurries... that's a pretty universal stat that doesn't need explaining.  Its the same for anyone who uses the stats. The QB is hurried.

 

 

5 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

We also really need to look at the total amount of time the QB holds onto the ball before throwing. I'm going to guess that Allen is near the top in the league of total amount of time to throw. But it would help to see those numbers. 

 

 

 

Again, if Allen is holding the ball and the pocket has not collapsed then the time would go up not down... indicating the line was better not worse. And you can see that stat on nextgetstats which is done by the NFL.  Its a garbage stat IMO because it doesn't tell you much. Mobile QBs will always show a longer time holding the ball as opposed to dink and dunkers. QBs like Lamar, Allen, Wilson, Murray would all have high times on these.  QBs like Brady, Last years Big Ben, probably Tua would show low times.  Its not an o line indicator stat.

Edited by Scott7975
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27 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Again, if Allen is holding the ball and the pocket has not collapsed then the time would go up not down... indicating the line was better not worse. And you can see that stat on nextgetstats which is done by the NFL.  Its a garbage stat IMO because it doesn't tell you much. Mobile QBs will always show a longer time holding the ball as opposed to dink and dunkers. QBs like Lamar, Allen, Wilson, Murray would all have high times on these.  QBs like Brady, Last years Big Ben, probably Tua would show low times.  Its not an o line indicator stat.

 

I don't think time to throw is a garbage stat. But you do have to look at it in context. I actually would like to see Josh's time to throw number come down a little this year because at times he is holding it too long IMO, but that doesn't mean I think the line is playing well. It very clearly isn't playing very well. I think you started from worst in the league, which I do think is an exaggeration, but they are not good. Bottom of the middle third or top of the bottom third in the league is about where I'd peg them. 

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7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think time to throw is a garbage stat. But you do have to look at it in context. I actually would like to see Josh's time to throw number come down a little this year because at times he is holding it too long IMO, but that doesn't mean I think the line is playing well. It very clearly isn't playing very well. I think you started from worst in the league, which I do think is an exaggeration, but they are not good. Bottom of the middle third or top of the bottom third in the league is about where I'd peg them. 

 

I should restate... its not a garbage stat but I think its a stat that needs a lot of context.  I call it a garbage stat because people use it to show something it doesn't show.

 

I don't think our line is the worst in the league.  Never have thought that.  I don't recall ever saying that but if I did then I misspoke. I think our line is bottom third of the league.  Honestly the way I feel is it doesn't matter where they "rank."  They simply aren't good enough IMO.  If anything holds us back from a Super Bowl its the line not being good enough.

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1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I should restate... its not a garbage stat but I think its a stat that needs a lot of context.  I call it a garbage stat because people use it to show something it doesn't show.

 

I don't think our line is the worst in the league.  Never have thought that.  I don't recall ever saying that but if I did then I misspoke. I think our line is bottom third of the league.  Honestly the way I feel is it doesn't matter where they "rank."  They simply aren't good enough IMO.  If anything holds us back from a Super Bowl its the line not being good enough.

 

And on the bolded I agree. Well that and our crap punter. 

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11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think time to throw is a garbage stat. But you do have to look at it in context. I actually would like to see Josh's time to throw number come down a little this year because at times he is holding it too long IMO, but that doesn't mean I think the line is playing well. It very clearly isn't playing very well. I think you started from worst in the league, which I do think is an exaggeration, but they are not good. Bottom of the middle third or top of the bottom third in the league is about where I'd peg them. 

 

This.

 

There are plenty of times the pressure gets to Allen's lap around the same time as the ball...thinking of the TD to Davis where he had to yank his head out of a defenders grip..

 

In those cases he is often forced to move off his spot and reset which would inflate some stats.

 

....and Sweeney was getting ragdolled early trying to block the extra guys which I thought was more his forte.

 

Either way Allen taking those higher percentage underneath options helps hide the warts, limits how long they have to maintain blocks, and keeps the sticks moving.

 

We will see if this OL finds better continuity when Brown gets back and Williams shifts to RG again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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