Scouting player potential

[Buffalo716]

When trying to determine a players potential at the next level a lot of things are part of the process and it certainly isn't cut-and-dry

 

But one of the biggest factors in determining potential has always been breakout age, especially true with QBs

 

The younger the breakout age , typically the higher potential. You look for a breakout age of 20 or younger in college

 

Darnold, Baker, Luck, Mahomes, Watson, Allen all had breakout years at 20 or younger

 

So has Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. Joe Burrow has a breakout age of 23. Which is why I believe he has a high floor , a starting NFL QB, but doenst have the top flight potential of the guys I named

 

The level of competition in the NFL only gets better and your are playing more mature men . Breakout age and playing against elders has always been a huge factor in potential 

 

I don't think the distance between Burrow and Tua and Hebert are that far off and Tua and Herbert have displayed breakout seasons at 20 or younger and while they might not be as polished have more upside

Edited April 15, 2020 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

When trying to determine a players potential at the next level a lot of things are part of the process and it certainly isn't cut-and-dry

 

But one of the biggest factors in determining potential has always been breakout age, especially true with QBs

 

The younger the breakout age , typically the higher potential. You look for a breakout age of 20 or younger in college

 

Darnold, Baker, Luck, Mahomes, Watson, Allen all had breakout years at 20 or younger

 

So has Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. Joe Burrow has a breakout age of 23. Which is why I believe he has a high floor , a starting NFL QB, but doenst have the top flight potential of the guys I named

 

The level of competition in the NFL only gets better and your are playing more mature men . Breakout age and playing against elders has always been a huge factor in potential 

 

I don't think the distance between Burrow and Tua and Hebert are that far off and Tua and Herbert have displayed breakout seasons at 20 or younger and while they might not be as polished have more upside

 

Burrow is a high floor but only maybe a moderate ceiling. I agree. Tua I kind of think the same though. 

 

Herbert. Meh. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

When trying to determine a players potential at the next level a lot of things are part of the process and it certainly isn't cut-and-dry

 

But one of the biggest factors in determining potential has always been breakout age, especially true with QBs

 

The younger the breakout age , typically the higher potential. You look for a breakout age of 20 or younger in college

 

Darnold, Baker, Luck, Mahomes, Watson, Allen all had breakout years at 20 or younger

 

So has Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. Joe Burrow has a breakout age of 23. Which is why I believe he has a high floor , a starting NFL QB, but doenst have the top flight potential of the guys I named

 

The level of competition in the NFL only gets better and your are playing more mature men . Breakout age and playing against elders has always been a huge factor in potential 

 

I don't think the distance between Burrow and Tua and Hebert are that far off and Tua and Herbert have displayed breakout seasons at 20 or younger and while they might not be as polished have more upside

This premise has some merit even though I submit that it is more true for WRs than QBs.  Maybe because I keep thinking of Johnny Football and Kurt Warner as exceptions to the premise. But it is a topic worth debating. So thanks.

[Buffalo716]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Burrow is a high floor but only maybe a moderate ceiling. I agree. Tua I kind of think the same though. 

 

Herbert. Meh. 

I'm not a huge Herbert fan but his traits and early breakout age has him pegged as a guy who can be really good. Hence his draft slot

 

Tua is small but as a thrower his touch and placement is so good , even at a young age. And his arm has zip... I saw him in HS and said this is a star, the injury stinks but I think he is just a better football player than Burrow if healthy

 

I've never been fans of people who go from the sixth round to first overall pick in one season . High floor , but I don't think his ceiling is anything special

6 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

This premise has some merit even though I submit that it is more true for WRs than QBs.  Maybe because I keep thinking of Johnny Football and Kurt Warner as exceptions to the premise. But it is a topic worth debating. So thanks.

The premise was created for underclassmen quarterbacks back in the and track them. Nothing is cut and dry tho

 

Johnny manziel was 6 ft tall and a runner and a knucklehead. It's pretty easy to see how he might not fit in the NFL. 

 

And Kurt Warner played at UNI a small school

Edited April 15, 2020 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

I'm not a huge Herbert fan but his traits and early breakout age has him pegged as a guy who can be really good. Hence his draft slot

 

Tua is small but as a thrower his touch and placement is so good , even at a young age. And his arm has zip... I saw him in HS and said this is a star, the injury stinks but I think he is just a better football player than Burrow if healthy

 

I've never been fans of people who go from the sixth round to first overall pick in one season . High floor , but I don't think his ceiling is anything special

 

Yea I agree on Tua. His touch on boundary throws is special. Like as good as I have seen special. 

 

On Burrow the question is fair. I said it in my evals there is a question about how much is him and how much is Joe Brady. Equally, the 2018 tendency to be a checkdown charlie when behind the chains is a concern. He was rarely behind the sticks in 2019 so it never really showed. I think he is probably a Matt Ryan guy who never quite makes elite but is consistently really good. We will see.  

[IgotBILLStopay]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

The premise was created for quarterbacks back in the day. There are obvious exceptions to everything tho

 

Johnny manziel was 6 ft tall and a runner and a knucklehead. It's pretty easy to see how he might not fit in the NFL. 

 

And Kurt Warner played at UNI a small school

 

Yup. I recognize that my response was anecdotal rather than scientific.

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I agree on Tua. His touch on boundary throws is special. Like as good as I have seen special. 

 

On Burrow the question is fair. I said it in my evals there is a question about how much is him and how much is Joe Brady. Equally, the 2018 tendency to be a checkdown charlie when behind the chains is a concern. He was rarely behind the sticks in 2019 so it never really showed. I think he is probably a Matt Ryan guy who never quite makes elite but is consistently really good. We will see.  

I've been throwing it back and forth for a while. I think he's Matt Ryan with a worse arm but more athletic ability

1 minute ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

 

Yup. I recognize that my response was anecdotal rather than scientific.

And wide receivers certainly hold true to that also. Give me a wide receiver who breaks out at 19 instead of 22 if everything else is equal

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I've been throwing it back and forth for a while. I think he's Matt Ryan with a worse arm

 

Could get on board with that. 

[Buffalo716]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Could get on board with that. 

I also think he's a better athlete. he's pretty poised in the pocket and could actually create some things but how much of a Creator will he be in the fast NFL

[Buffalo716]

Even back in the day , while Elway was RS at Stanford the legend was born

 

The Elway cross as it has came to be known was already alive and well. Freshman John Elway was ripping up the Stanford Starting defense and scouts and NFL teams were drooling over the chance to select Elway in a few seasons

 

Andrew Luck had one of the most polished RS freshman campaign's of all time(polished not stats)  playing in a 2-3 TE offense

 

Sam Darnold Dazzled as a RS Fresh

 

Baker became a Freshman D1 college starter as a WALK ON

 

Drew Brees broke out before his 20th birthday In college

 

Lamar Jackson did, Allen did, 

 

Rodgers  broke out at 20 after transferring

 

Even Andy Dalton started 4 years

 

There is just so much that says the younger you breakout the better chances you have for success .. rather than a late bloomer , tho there are exceptions like to everything

 

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Buffalo716

[BuffaloRebound]

I think you gotta put an asterisk next to Burrow’s breakout age.  Urban Meyer won a lot of games but wasn’t exactly a QB guru.  It’s not like Burrow struggled when he was young.  Just wasn’t given the chance.  

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think you gotta put an asterisk next to Burrow’s breakout age.  Urban Meyer won a lot of games but wasn’t exactly a QB guru.  It’s not like Burrow struggled when he was young.  Just wasn’t given the chance.  

That is totally true ... he also never won a quarterback competition at Ohio State

 

So both have to be taken into account

[DFT]

Gonna respectfully disagree with a good portion of the OP.  Breakout age is a really great tool for WRs as it demonstrates a pattern of performance beyond simply measurables.  But QBs defy it constantly.  Achieving the requisite QBR on the requisite action plays (don’t remember the number off hand) is important, sure.  But respectfully, not as critical as it’s made in the OP.  QBs have a chance to develop incredibly at the next level, arguably more than any other position.  The drop off in significant coaching talent at the collegiate level is immense compared to the consistency players find in the pros.  If you poll scouts you’ll find that many are looking for the “holy grail” of intangibles (Leadership, work ethic and accuracy being almost unanimously the top 3) before ever looking into something like peak collegiate achievement defined by breakout age (if they look at it at all).  The biggest flaw in the analytics behind breakout age...  The young players ceiling isn’t measured and doesn’t reveal anything that attributes to the big 3, aside from accuracy.  Again...  my opinion.

[YoloinOhio]

26 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think you gotta put an asterisk next to Burrow’s breakout age.  Urban Meyer won a lot of games but wasn’t exactly a QB guru.  It’s not like Burrow struggled when he was young.  Just wasn’t given the chance.  

He had a chance, and he came close to starting in 2018, but Haskins had the better arm talent and burrow had an ill timed injury when he broke his hand in fall practice of 2017 and fell behind Haskins as Barrett’s backup. Burrow actually fit the offense much better than Haskins. He was coached by Ryan Day beginning in 2017 who IS a QB guru. Urban didn’t coach the QBs. He was more of a CEO type.

Edited April 15, 2020 by YoloinOhio