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Astro's "Pick-Six" Discussing the upcoming 2020 Bills Draft


MAJBobby

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25 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

That’s part of the reason I think a trade up for Jeudy is possible. If he lasts to the teens (which he probably won’t) the Bills will be on the phone. They say he’s as good of a route runner as they’ve ever graded at this point. To me that says “smallest learning curve” and “highest floor.” Receivers often take some time to adjust but Jeudy will enter the league ready to go. 

22, a 3rd and 4th....something like that

 

 

Sounds about right. Regarding the positioning, this is pretty much the identical trade-up that the Bills made back in 2018 to get Edmunds (going from 22 to 16, I believe). That trade required the #3 (1st pick of the 3rd round) that we acquired from the Browns for Tyrod.

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1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

I really really like what I am reading and the highlights I have seen of Shenault...he is big, strong, fast and quick and can be used in so many ways.  Outside, Slot, out of the backfield, etc...I think he would be a great fit as an almost X-factor in our offense.  And he has a cool ass name hahaha

He's really not as fast as some people are making him to be

 

He isn't slow but he isn't an NFL burner

 

There are lots more polished pure WRs in the class. I think he falls down the board a bit

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41 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Can't see Indy at 13 passing on him.  They have a huge need at WR.    The Bills would have to trade with the Raiders for the #12 pick to move ahead of them...

 

 

Yeah.   They did their DD.   

 

But he'd be a bit of a project and I'm not sure the Bills are set up for that this year...

 

Their QB was a project as well and they traded up for him because the ceiling was just so high. 

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21 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Their QB was a project as well and they traded up for him because the ceiling was just so high. 

 

But year four is the "Go!" year in the process.    No more time to wait for McBeane.    Either it comes together this year, or they'll start to get fitted for the hot seat...

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

But year four is the "Go!" year in the process.    No more time to wait for McBeane.    Either it comes together this year, or they'll start to get fitted for the hot seat...

 

 


ok and no WR in the first round will matter one way or another. In the grand scheme of next year. To be honest I don’t think they take Shenault only because I don’t think he will be there. But to say they Won’t  because his route tree is raw (though has really improved in 2019) when they traded up for a Super Raw QB is a little weird. 

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I like a RT in the second round since there is no way Ford can be handed the RT position.

If we take EDGE in rounds 5B and 6B it means Beane will have to buy one in FA.  These guys would be depth, like Daryl Johnson last year.

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11 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:


ok and no WR in the first round will matter one way or another. In the grand scheme of next year. To be honest I don’t think they take Shenault only because I don’t think he will be there. But to say they Won’t  because his route tree is raw when they traded up for a Super Raw QB is a little weird. 

 

Well, we'll agree to disagree.   I think there is a time and place to take developmental prospects vs. more polished ones.   

 

Last year would have been the perfect example.    The Bills were focused on getting better, but didn't yet have a roster capable of making a deep playoff run.     So more flexibility to take a kid that had to spend time learning the ropes--sort of like Ed Oliver.    Ed had a great year, but he was in a rotation and actually saw Phillips move ahead of him at one point.

 

This year, the expectations have to be higher.  Especially if Josh is taking that next step.    More polished kids from top programs who've competed in big games--and can (theoretically) step right in and contribute.   Like guys from LSU, Alabama etc. versus lesser programs.     

 

At least that's what I'd do if I was Beane...

 

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4 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Well, we'll agree to disagree.   I think there is a time and place to take developmental prospects vs. more polished ones.   

 

Last year would have been the perfect example.    The Bills were focused on getting better, but didn't yet have a roster capable of making a deep playoff run.     So more flexibility to take a kid that had to spend time learning the ropes--sort of like Ed Oliver.    Ed had a great year, but he was in a rotation and actually saw Phillips move ahead of him at one point.

 

This year, the expectations have to be higher.  Especially if Josh is taking that next step.    More polished kids from top programs who've competed in big games--and can (theoretically) step right in and contribute.   Like guys from LSU, Alabama etc. versus lesser programs.     

 

At least that's what I'd do if I was Beane...

 


that is what I was trying to get at. I wanted to see your scouting Bias. So Shenault is getting downgraded because he played for Colorado 

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8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:


that is what I was trying to get at. I wanted to see your scouting Bias. So Shenault is getting downgraded because he played for Colorado 

 

Nope.   Because he's a jack of all trades, rather than accomplished positional player.    I give kids from the big SEC schools an extra plus.   But lesser school kids can overcome that (i.e., Ed Oliver) if they have the right tools and development potential.

 

The bottom, line for me is that this year is different.    They have to think like a team that's busting through the door, not getting ready for next year or the one after that.    Shenault would be dynamite playing for Andy Reid on the Chiefs with all the talent around him.   In Buffalo, he'd be the Great WR Hope, with hugh immediate expectations.   If he came in and played like Knox did this year (not a bad comparison in terms of playing experience), then it would be a 'miss' rather than a 'hit' to me... 

 

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4 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Nope.   Because he's a jack of all trades, rather than accomplished positional player.    I give kids from the big SEC schools an extra plus.   But lesser school kids can overcome that (i.e., Ed Oliver) if they have the right tools and development potential.

 

The bottom, line for me is that this year is different.    They have to think like a team that's busting through the door, not getting ready for next year or the one after that.    Shenault would be dynamite playing for Andy Reid on the Chiefs with all the talent around him.   In Buffalo, he'd be the Great WR Hope, with hugh immediate expectations.   If he came in and played like Knox did this year (not a bad comparison in terms of playing experience), then it would be a 'miss' rather than a 'hit' to me... 

 


ok I get what you are thinking. However Drafts never change for me. It is always about the Future more than the present. 
 

the Present is addressed in UFA. 
 

I think he can do what Metcalf did in year one. And if he does that Bills are making a run again

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2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

http://billsmafia.com/2020/01/27/astros-pick-six-february-buffalo-bills/

 

Its a good read in terms of players value at the assigned pick..  little taste

 

"Just like we did over the holidays, it’s time to pick six prospective players at each of the Bills’ nine picks. We’ll do this based on player value, fit with the Bills’ archetype, positional need, and work ethic. My “Pick Six”, if you will. You will often see these names grabbed by the Bills in the DraftTek mocks, and they will undoubtedly change as we get closer and closer to April 23–25, 2020."

 

"ROUND 1, Pick 22
Laviska Shenault WR Colorado
Tee Higgins WR Clemson
K’Lavon Chaisson OLB LSU
Xavier McKinney S Alabama
Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
Henry Ruggs III WR Alabama

The Best Value on DraftTek Big Board: Shenault.
The Biggest Reach on DraftTek Big Board: Chaisson.
The Most Interesting Stat: Shenault’s 78.2% catch rate to Higgins’ 65.6%

Who I’m Picking: Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado. He was so versatile that Daboll’s drooling right now. The Buffs used him in slot, outside WR, H-back, tailback, TE, wildcat QB, and even a punt return (54 yards). He outweighs Higgins by 20 pounds. That’s before wings."

A safety, really? That's about the last thing we need, unless he can play CB.

Also, not sure why Chaisson is seen as a reach at pick 22...he will definitely be gone in the top-25 picks, he's a stud.

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1 minute ago, JustWinPlease said:

A safety, really? That's about the last thing we need, unless he can play CB.

Also, not sure why Chaisson is seen as a reach at pick 22...he will definitely be gone in the top-25 picks, he's a stud.


that is what is valued in that area according to Astros Rankings. And yes I also see Chaisson as a reach at 22 as an Edge 

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2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:


ok I get what you are thinking. However Drafts never change for me. It is always about the Future more than the present. 
 

the Present is addressed in UFA. 
 

I think he can do what Metcalf did in year one. And if he does that Bills are making a run again

 

Drafts are always about the future.   But sometimes the future is Now! rather than later.    I think this is one of those years.   

 

If Josh doesn't step up this year, the house of cards might start to wobble.    I don't want any excuses for why he didn't get the right kind of help he needs to take that step (against a tough, tough schedule)... 

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Just now, MAJBobby said:


that is what is valued in that area according to Astros Rankings. And yes I also see Chaisson as a reach at 22 

It doesn't really jive with the "fit with the Bills" and "positional need" part of his explanation.

 

Don't see it with Chaisson, I think he's a top-25 player all day...wouldn't want the Bills to draft him though, simply because I'm Team "WR or Bust."

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3 minutes ago, JustWinPlease said:

It doesn't really jive with the "fit with the Bills" and "positional need" part of his explanation.

 

Don't see it with Chaisson, I think he's a top-25 player all day...wouldn't want the Bills to draft him though, simply because I'm Team "WR or Bust."


I have him as a Tier 1 (1st round grade) LBer

and a Tier 2 (2nd round grade) Edge 

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1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:


I have him as a Tier 1 (1st round grade) LBer

and a Tier 2 (2nd round grade) Edge 

So he'd be a reach for the Bills, but not so much for a 3-4 team in the same spot, is basically what you're saying?

I'm still holding out hope that Vosean Joseph can take Alexander's spot...but wouldn't be opposed to a LB in the 3rd or 4th round.

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2 minutes ago, JustWinPlease said:

So he'd be a reach for the Bills, but not so much for a 3-4 team in the same spot, is basically what you're saying?

I'm still holding out hope that Vosean Joseph can take Alexander's spot...but wouldn't be opposed to a LB in the 3rd or 4th round.


Yep. I don’t think he translates well to a 4-3DE. 
 

 

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Just now, JustWinPlease said:

How about RB...is there a big workhorse type of RB that we could pair with Singletary?

Or is that more of a free agency thing?


there are a bunch. Depends what round you really want to take a RB. I like the kid from LSU in the 3rd or Eno Benjamin in the 3rd 

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