Warren Zevon Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 1 minute ago, GG said: In an idealized state, which will never exist for each new virus. He also doesn't address who would be subject to the test, not the obvious point that if you have symptoms, to stay away from others. Your obvious point is obvious but many people who spread the disease are asymptomatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, GG said: In an idealized state, which will never exist for each new virus. He also doesn't address who would be subject to the test, not the obvious point that if you have symptoms, to stay away from others. It's lonely dying on the hill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: It's lonely dying on the hill. I also think the CDC guidelines (Did Fauci have a hand in writing these? I assume so...) telling people to stay 6 feet apart speaks to the obvious point that if you have symptoms, to stay away from others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Gary Busey said: Your obvious point is obvious but many people who spread the disease are asymptomatic You'd probably be better off testing people for antibodies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Just now, meazza said: You'd probably be better off testing people for antibodies. When it comes to testing that is the pinnacle goal for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, shoshin said: The idea of waiting the 6-8 weeks in quarantine is the one that the country is following, I think. No one is making that plan clear but with testing in place and a medical system geared up and ready, Pence's June 1 prediction is probably right for re-opening a lot of the country. But you're right. The economy is not going to be the Trump "V" that he predicted. At best it will be a backwards J. We will get some rise this year but double digit unemployment will linger for a long time. The Nike Swoosh recovery is what I see. Quote Also known as the “Nike swoosh,” this scenario allows for businesses and spending to slowly resume as limits are eased more carefully than they were introduced. The level of economic output stays beneath the level of its pre-crisis trend well into 2021 and there’s a lack of animal spirits as people remain cautious of over-spending or taking long-distance trips, especially if they have to deal with debts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Gary Busey said: Your obvious point is obvious but many people who spread the disease are asymptomatic So the obvious answer is you test everyone? Everyday? Every other day? Every three days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Doc said: So the obvious answer is you test everyone? Everyday? Every other day? Every three days? No. Develop an antibody test. Test anyone else who has symptoms or has come into contact with a known positive patient. Practice social distancing. Stay isolated. Edited April 2, 2020 by Gary Busey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, meazza said: You'd probably be better off testing people for antibodies. This is absolutely true. A rapid and accurate antibody test is the Holy Grail of the testing and outbreak prevention plan that we need to get back to work. 12 minutes ago, Magox said: The Nike Swoosh recovery is what I see. I'll take it. If we are recovered to present levels in two years, that would be fantastic. Some industries (travel and hospitality, restaurants) are going to be gutted though for a long time. That's why the infrastructure spending that wouldn't even start until 3Q at the earliest could help those folks at least find some jobs. Edited April 2, 2020 by shoshin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, shoshin said: This is absolutely true. A rapid and accurate antibody test is the Holy Grail of the testing and outbreak prevention plan that we need to get back to work. I'll take it. If we are recovered to present levels in two years, that would be fantastic. It all depends though. If we don't flatten this curve by no later than June, then we won't see this. And not only that, we need to be able to effectively have policies in place to control any other potential outbreak we may see after that. If we don't effectively isolate any other potential outbreak then it will be a W recovery. If we don't effectively flatten the curve until after June and we don't begin phasing back the workforce at that time then it will look more like an L shape recovery. Quote L-Shape The virus runs into the second half of the year, forcing social distancing rules to remain beyond June. Even if it fades before the summer, there is still a chance the recession will be lengthier than anticipated or the recovery will be stretched out. In this scenario, people continue to cut back on services spending -- opting to keep with their home theaters -- and resist taking holidays. Debts built up before or during the crisis become hard to pay down, setting off a spiral of default and business bankruptcies that create fears of a credit crunch. Equity markets fail to bounce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
123719bwiqrb Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, Gary Busey said: No. Develop an antibody test. Test anyone else who has symptoms or has come into contact with a known positive patient. Practice social distancing. Stay isolated. And then we can mark them so we all know they are acceptable humans. And the rest can be stored somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Magox said: It all depends though. If we don't flatten this curve by no later than June, then we won't see this. And not only that, we need to be able to effectively have policies in place to control any other potential outbreak we may see after that. If we don't effectively isolate any other potential outbreak then it will be a W recovery. If we don't effectively flatten the curve until after June and we don't begin phasing back the workforce at that time then it will look more like an L shape recovery. This is really good data and thinking. The way we start getting back to work in June is with widespread rapid testing, medical facilities with adequate supplies of everything, and tracking of cases/contacts. This is the Korea model and if we achieve all 3 of those goals, we would attain relative predictability and could recover faster. There will be outbreaks after June but if they can be contained, it's OK. What we can't have happen is the Imperial College model of multiple waves like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
123719bwiqrb Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gary Busey said: Yikes Ok. So then you explain to me how this magical antibody test would work, good sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Just now, shoshin said: There will be outbreaks after June but if they can be contained, it's OK. What we can't have happen is the Imperial College model of multiple waves like this one. The swoosh or L curve would get pushed out another 6-8 months with another mass outbreak in the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, ScotSHO said: And then we can mark them so we all know they are acceptable humans. And the rest can be stored somewhere. It's OK to Big Brother the concern on tracking but here's the tradeoff. If you want one shutdown where we get this under control and coming out of it, we get back to work, we better have some tracking in place until the vaccine arrives. 3 minutes ago, Gary Busey said: The swoosh or L curve would get pushed out another 6-8 months with another mass outbreak in the fall Not if there's testing and tracking. Without testing and tracking in June, we will have an outbreak just like now by the end of summer. That would be terrible and only happen as the result of bad decisions right now. 3 minutes ago, ScotSHO said: Ok. So then you explain to me how this magical antibody test would work, good sir. Don't be ignorant. It's not magic. The tests are already being rolled out, though it's early. Edited April 2, 2020 by shoshin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, ScotSHO said: Ok. So then you explain to me how this magical antibody test would work, good sir. Google antibody testing. It's already being developed for Covid-19 by numerous companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gary Busey said: Google antibody testing. It's already being developed for Covid-19 by numerous companies. Anything being developed now can take months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
123719bwiqrb Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, shoshin said: Don't be ignorant. It's not magic. The tests are already being rolled out, though it's early. Not being ig-nant, but I want to know what happens to subject A who "passes" this test and has lot of magical antibodies, vs subject B who fails this test and does not has sufficient antibodies to go outside of their house. What happens if subject B want to go sit on a park bench, or heaven forbid wants to get a job and make money to support their beanie baby collection? I believe the powers that be will say they should be shunned for 18 months until there is an approved vaccination, correct? And in the meantime, we will track their whereabouts, you know just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, meazza said: Anything being developed now can take months. Indeed - which is why people are rightfully upset the government dragged their feet throughout January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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