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MAJBobby

My Off-Season Primer: Position Group - DT

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***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them).  Hope you enjoy the read

 

Past Writeups

Quarterback

Running Backs

Tight Ends

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Specialists

Defensive Ends

 

Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 4 players 16.173M Cap)

Star Lotulelei (UFA 2023) – Saves 2.3M against cap if Cut

Ed Oliver (5th year option 2023) (UFA 2024)

Harrison Phillips (UFA 2022) – Saves 503K against cap if Cut

Vincent Taylor (UFA 2021) – Saves 735K against cap if Cut

 

Expiring Contracts

Jordan Phillips (27 yrd old) (2019 AAV 4.5M) (Market Value 7-10M AAV)

Corey Liuget (30 yrs old) (2019 AAV 930K) (Market Value 1-3M AAV)

 

My Take:

First, I will address the expiring contract Jordan Phillips.  He has been trending positive for the last 1.5 years (both good and bad).  Reason it is good he has turned himself into a very productive rotational DT, especially on pass downs. The bad is I think it is going to have someone overpay in Market.  I would like him back on the Bills however at proper value which is closer to the 9M AAV.  The issue is he is the only DT in double digit sacks going to the Market and I can see team laying out 12-14M AAV for him.  The issue I would not go that high, he is a liability in run defense as evident by his tape.  He is a 1 gap tech, that does play stout at the POA, he penetrates but at times is way too far upfield creating gaps for RBs.  I don’t want to hate on Phillips, however his run defending is a trend since college, run defense takes motor and want to and I just do not see that in Phillips.

 

Looking at him against the numbers:

Jordan Phillips – 31 tackles (career High), 25 solo (career High), 13 TFL (career high), 16 QB Hits (career High), 9.5 or 10 sacks (depending on your reference) (career High) 52.1% snaps (2nd on the team).  At those numbers his value is similar at Henry Anderson at (3 yrs 25.2M, 8.4M GTD)

 

The Other expiring contract is Corey Liuget. The issue with him is he is like Phillips as well being a liability against the run.  And he is coming back from the quad injury that I still don’t think h is fully healthy from, though at the age of 30 he might not ever get back to his best form, IMO at this point he is Just A Guy, after 7 years removed from his best year.  Unlike Murphy who has shown he can get back to his best years, Liuget has been trending the other way his by the numbers:

 

Corey Liuget – 13 tackles, 10 solo, 5 TFL, 2 QB hits, 1 total sacks, 12.7% snaps – All career lows for him.

 

Now to the players that are still on contract I will start with Star Lotulelei.  Before I start, I will put my bias out there so you can take my writeup on him with a grain of salt if you need too, I think he is way overpaid for what he brings to the field.  For those that have read what I wrote about him earlier in the year he earned his nickname I gave him of Skates Lotulelei, and was getting dramatically outplayed by Harrison Phillips at the 1 tech.  So this year has been a tale of two Stars, earlier in the year he looked weak, was not holding up at the POA, we know he offered next to nothing in pass rush, but he wasn’t even doing his space eater roll effectively, then something happened as the season progressed right after the CLE game when he got 70% of the snaps and logged not a single stat, something sparked him, I still don’t think he will ever earn the contract h got, but if he plays like he did AFTER the CLE game he won’t be a 10M AAV liability. Will post him by the numbers to show what I mean.

 

Star, CLE and before (9 games) – 8 tackles, 4 solo, 0 TFL, 0 QB Hits, 0 Sacks, 47.56% snaps

Star post CLE (8 games) – 11 tackles, 8 solo, 3 TFL, 3 QB Hits, 2 sacks, 46.25% (mind you only played 6% snaps against Jets wk 17)

 

Yes, I know not all DT contributions can be measured in Stats, but if you are going to possibly let a DT walk out the door because of price it is hard to justify a player on the roster making 10M AAV when he doesn’t log stats.

 

Next up is the Rookie, Ed Oliver and how he did in my eyes.  As a rookie I thought he played well.  I think he is a top end prospect where the sky is the limit.  When the season started many where wondering where he was, he was getting pushed around a lot in 1v1 blocking and just not the tenacious DT that we were told about, however what is good with him as the season when on he got much more disruptive.  He also was splitting and taking on most of the double teams when he was in the game and showed why he was taken he quickly became the best DT we had on this team.  I cannot wait for him to have an offseason to JUST focus on Football and not the draft process.  I think he will come back even stronger and better than he already is.  OOO and for that small group out there that want to move him to DE. NO, go watch some Houston (college) tape and see how bad he was at DE.  Keep him right where he is and allow him to be a top end 3-tech.  Now I don’t like doing what I am about to do and will only show this because of the comparisons that people want to make of him.

 

Aaron Darnold (rookie year) – 48 Tackles, 38 solo, 18 TFL, 13 QB Hits, 9 sacks 67.1% snaps

Ed Oliver – 43 tackles, 24 solo, 5 TFL, 8 QB hits, 5 sacks, 53.9% snaps

 

What does this comparison mean?  Nothing and that is why I hate doing them.  But what it shows is Oliver looked the part compared to the rookie year of the most Dominate DT in football. 

 

Gotta talk about Harry as well here, because he will be a part going into next year.  What I saw from him in his limited time before INJ was he looked much stronger and had improved his technique.  He seemed to anchor much better and show leverage against the blockers.  What I like about him he has a wicked punch and good hand games (guessing that is the wrestling background).  He seems to me like someone that will be absolutely pissed about the injury and will come back on a mission next year.  His growth is vital to see where we are in the 1Tech DT.  If he can show that he can secure that position I think Oliver and Harry will be a nice DT pairing in the long-term future.  Not going to do by the numbers here because of the injury.  However, his snap % increased every game from 32% in opener to 43% when he went down.

 

Possible Trade TGTs (hard to gauge until after SB)

Marcel Dareus (before the CO due)

Arby Jones (heard his name come up down here in FL too)

Corey Peters (heard his name around deadline time)

 

UFAs Possible

Tier 1

Shelby Harris

Michael Brockers

Javon Hargrave

DJ Reader

Danny Shelton (1Tech Space eater)

 

Tier 2

A’shawn Robinson

Andrew Billings

Vernon Butler (CAR Connection)

Michal Pierce

Al Woods (another space eater)

Adam Butler (RFA)

Maliek Collins

Marcell Dareus (space eater)

 

Draft

Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades)

1-Tech

Derrick Brown (Auburn)

Rashard Lawrence (LSU)

 

3-Tech

Derrick Brown (Auburn) – better suited here IMO but tier 1 in both techniques

Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina)

Justin Madubuike (Texas A&M)

Davon Hamilton (Ohio State)

Rashard Lawrence (LSU)

 

Tier 2 (3rd-5th round)

1-Tech

Tedarrell Slaton (Florida)

Leki Fotu (Utah)

Nevill Gallimore (Oklahoma)

Bentio Jones (Ole Miss)

 

3-Tech

Raekwon Davis (Alabama)

Jordon Elliot (Missouri)

Raequan Williams (Michigan State)

Larrell Muchison (NC State)

 

Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA)

1-Tech

Bravivion Roy (Baylor)

Tyler Clark (Georgia)

Darrion Daniels (Nebraska)

Khalil Davis (Nebraska)

 

3-Tech

Benning Potoa’e (Washington)

Mustafa Johnson (Colorado)

Ross Blacklock (TCU)

Jay Tufele (USC)

Ifeanyi Maijeh (Temple)

Robert Windsor (Penn St)

Carlos Davis (Nebraska)

 

Final thinking in this Position group for me would be:

 

This position group is interesting to me, because there are several ways that the Bills could go.  I think they would really like to re-sign Jordan Phillips, but I also think unless he is going to take a discount to stay in this system, I think the Bills will pass.  I would place his value to Buffalo at 10M AAV, which both he and they should easily do.  If they choose to let Phillips walk, I think you are going to see Corey Liuget signed quickly.  If he is offered a contract before Phillips then I think that is all you need to know in terms of Phillips coming back.  There are some interesting names out there that could be signed IF they re-sign Phillips and let Star (Not advocating that yet) walk for example.  Could look at Danny Shelton (Market value of 5M AAV), that allows for freeing up Stars contract now, and using it to re-resign Phillips.  And allows for upgrading the 1 Tech.  Another possible replacement for Phillips would be Vernon Butler he has 6 sacks in his own right, a Carolina connection as well, and a Market of 8M AAV.

 

This is the position group where tweaking is going to start.  I think they stay away from the draft here right now because two young players already on contract and performing.  And there is depth in the UFA market as well.

 

What I would do is kind of what I already mentioned but going to take it one step further.  I would go after Danny Shelton for me new 1-Tech.  I also would offer Jordan Phillips his Market 10M AAV, if he passes, I am signing Vernon Butler. In the draft I will start looking for value here in the 6th round, if there is none I target Ifeanyi Meijeh as a priority UDFA, or maybe even just draft him with the last 6th will be a round over-draft but won’t have to worry about waiting until UDFA and seeing if he gets there.  If I could pull that off my DT group going into camp looks like:

Danny Shelton

Jordan Phillips / Vernon Butler

Ed Oliver

Harrison Phillips

Vincent Taylor

Ifeanyi Meijeh

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Glad to see you like Shelton as he's a guy I'd like to see Beane pursue as well.   

 

He'd be a younger (27 vs. 28 on oppening day), heavier (344 vs. 324 pounds) and cheaper alternative to Phillips who would fit in well here...

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1 minute ago, Lurker said:

Glad to see you like Shelton as he's a guy I'd like to see Beane pursue as well.   

 

He'd be a younger (27 vs. 28 on oppening day), heavier (344 vs. 324 pounds) and cheaper alternative to Phillips who would fit in well here...


slightly different position. I guess you could probably flip Harry over to 3-Tech to rotate with Oliver and have Star and Shelton rotating at the 1-Tech. 

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I really liked Andrew Billings in college. Haven’t seen him in Cincinnati. Got to be hard to get playing time with Geno out there 

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Nice Job Bobby and you win......

 

A NEW CAR !!

 

Image result for game show, new car"
 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, HOUSE said:

Nice Job Bobby and you win......

 

A NEW CAR !!

 

Image result for game show, new car"
 
 

 

 

 


nice car. Like my Audi and Benz a little more. 

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48 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:


slightly different position. I guess you could probably flip Harry over to 3-Tech to rotate with Oliver and have Star and Shelton rotating at the 1-Tech. 

 

I actually think that might be more effective use of Harry.   He's just too smart and instinctive to be a space eater / anchor...

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Harry seems like a better 3-tech, doesn't seem like a space eater.

I also think Beane will go a little higher than $10M AAV, probably closer to $12M AAV.  If he wants more than that, say Fletcher Cox money ($17M AAV) he's gone.

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19 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Harry seems like a better 3-tech, doesn't seem like a space eater.

I also think Beane will go a little higher than $10M AAV, probably closer to $12M AAV.  If he wants more than that, say Fletcher Cox money ($17M AAV) he's gone.


yeah actually the 3-Tech might be better suited for Harry. 
 

Shelton easily makes that move easier. 

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