Bills Draft Capital Analysis

[LSHMEAB]

7 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

 

Then you should ask for your parent's property tax $ back and/or sue your teachers, because that is flat out wrong.

 

On every single spin you have 1/38 chance or 37 to 1 odds of 23 hitting. If 23 comes up 3 times, or never, it had 37 to 1 odds each time, every time.

Ok. I think what you're struggling to say is that one roulette spin or flip of a coin has no bearing on the next flip/spin. That is true. If heads comes up 10 times in a row, tails is not "due" as some would believe. This changes when you factor in the QUANTITY of spins/flips. If I have 100 chances at a 1/38 proposition, of course I have a better chance than if I only have one. 

 

With that, I will leave this topic alone as it's deviating from anything Bills related.

Edited April 10, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[OCinBuffalo]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

But I'm not talking about 1 pick I'm talking about 7. If I flip a coin 7 times there are 128 possible outcomes 127 of which involve me getting heads at least once.

No there are 2 outcomes. Heads or tails. I've never heard of somebody flipping 121 on a coin. Maybe that's possible in another dimension? It's not possible here.

 

 

[Warcodered]

5 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

No there are 2 outcomes. Heads or tails. I've never heard of somebody flipping 121 on a coin. Maybe that's possible in another dimension? It's not possible here.

 

 

There are 2 outcomes for any 1 pick hit or miss. With 2 picks there are 4 (hit, hit), (hit, miss),  (miss, hit), and (miss, miss).

 

With 7 there are 128.

Edited April 10, 2019 by Warcodered

[OCinBuffalo]

2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Ok. I think what you're struggling to say is that one roulette spin or flip of a coin has no bearing on the next flip/spin. That is true. If heads comes up 10 times in a row, tails is not "due" as some would believe. This changes when you factor in the QUANTITY of spins/flips. If I have 100 chances at a 1/38 proposition, of course I have a better chance than if I only have one. 

Yeah, somehow, I doubt the even mildly educated observer of this thread would say that I'm the one who is "struggling".  

 

No. Never. Not ever. Each spin/flip is totally and completely independent and has NO BEARING on the next. The odds never change. They stay exactly the same. Just like whether or not pick #160 makes the team, has no bearing on whether pick #159 or #162 or #1 makes their team...if that's how we define "hit". They hit, or miss, completely independently from each other.

 

Man, I am glad I no longer give NYS ANY of my $, if this is what their education looks like. You should ask for a refund/start voting for different people.  

 

 

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

There are 2 outcomes for any 1 pick hit or miss. With 2 picks there are 4 (hit, hit), (hit, miss),  (miss, hit), and (miss, miss).

 

With 7 there are 128.

You are confusing combinations with outcomes. And, you are falsely implying that combinations are predictive of outcomes.

 

There are only 2 outcomes: heads or tails, the possible combinations are a nice exercise for you...but they predict nothing.

 

The only prediction for a coin flip: it will be heads, tails, or magically land, and stay, on its edge. Heads 50%, Tails 50%, magic 0%.

[Augie]

Wordy + mathy = sleepy. 

 

 

That could be on me......

[OCinBuffalo]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

Wordy + mathy = sleepy. 

Ok, I'll wake you up when I find a way to flip 121 on a coin. Then you can post.

[Augie]

9 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Ok, I'll wake you up when I find a way to flip 121 on a coin. Then you can post.

 

I’ll post when I like, thank you. 

[OCinBuffalo]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I’ll post when I like, thank you. 

But, I thought you were sleepy. I'm just trying to help you out. Perhaps after you rest you can add something substantive to this thread?

Edited April 10, 2019 by OCinBuffalo

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

But, I thought you were sleepy. I'm just trying to help you out. Perhaps after you rest you can add something substantive to this thread?

 

I’d hate to go first. 

 

I added “maybe that was just me”, to take some pressure off. I’m not looking to waste time and energy over this stuff, and there are never hard feelings. We are all Bills fans. 

 

Edited April 10, 2019 by Augie

[OCinBuffalo]

Just now, Augie said:

 

I hate to go first. 

So, you just post crap instead?

[Warcodered]

29 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Yeah, somehow, I doubt the even mildly educated observer of this thread would say that I'm the one who is "struggling".  

 

No. Never. Not ever. Each spin/flip is totally and completely independent and has NO BEARING on the next. The odds never change. They stay exactly the same. Just like whether or not pick #160 makes the team, has no bearing on whether pick #159 or #162 or #1 makes their team...if that's how we define "hit". They hit, or miss, completely independently from each other.

 

Man, I am glad I no longer give NYS ANY of my $, if this is what their education looks like. You should ask for a refund/start voting for different people.  

 

 

You are confusing combinations with outcomes. And, you are falsely implying that combinations are predictive of outcomes.

 

There are only 2 outcomes: heads or tails, the possible combinations are a nice exercise for you...but they predict nothing.

 

The only prediction for a coin flip: it will be heads, tails, or magically land, and stay, on its edge. Heads 50%, Tails 50%, magic 0%.

Each individual coin flip has a 50% chance of being heads or tails. But if you flip the coin twice you only have a 25% chance of getting heads or tails twice. You also have a 50% chance of getting one of each as well as a 75% of getting at least 1 heads and a 75% chance of getting 1 at least 1 tails.

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

But, I thought you were sleepy. I'm just trying to help you out. Perhaps after you rest you can add something substantive to this thread?

Snide contempt for nearly all one's interlocutors is unlikely to promote civility and good discussion. Probably that isn't covered in statistics.

 

[ndirish1978]

2 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

But, I thought you were sleepy. I'm just trying to help you out. Perhaps after you rest you can add something substantive to this thread?

 

This thread is off the rails. You get defensive about anything people post and talk down like you're gracing everyone with your knowledge. The most substantive thing that could happen to this thread would be to close it. Though I'm sure I'll just get a response from you with some biting wit about how you're an expert, so my lack of interest in the matter means I am a moron, not that you're being abrasive to anyone who actually tries to post here.

[oldmanfan]

The argument involves a single vs. cumulative effect.  Any time you flip a coin, or make a draft pick, as a single event it's heads or tails, success or bust.  But if you flip 10 times or make ten picks statistics say you will average things out and it will be unlikely you get all heads or tails, or that all players are success or failure.  It's a good argument to acquire more picks.

[OCinBuffalo]

Just now, Warcodered said:

Each individual coin flip has a 50% chance of being heads or tails. But if you flip the coin twice you only have a 25% chance of getting heads or tails twice. You also have a 50% chance of getting one of each as well as a 75% of getting at least 1 heads and a 75% chance of getting 1 at least 1 tails.

No. Each flip, 50% of heads, 50% of tails. Why is this so hard? 

 

Look, if I flip a coin one time and get heads, the universe doesn't tilt on it's axis, bend the coin....time...space...and create a 25% chance that I will get heads again.  The second time there are only 2 outcomes, same as the first. Past outcomes of coin flips don't predict future outcomes. 7 coin flips = 50% chance of heads or tails for each, with no predictive...anything. 7 heads in a row has a chance of 50% 2 heads, 1 tails, 3 tails, 1 heads? 50% chance...exactly.

 

Get it...yet?

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

So, you just post crap instead?

 

See my edited post above. It’s not worth getting riled up over. It’s OK, if we can all just stay calm and balanced. No need for anyone to lash out. 

[OCinBuffalo]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Snide contempt for nearly all one's interlocutors is unlikely to promote civility and good discussion. Probably that isn't covered in statistics.

 

Refusing to post anything of substance will 100% of the time get you crushed in my threads. Ask anybody. You can start: now. 

 

Or GTFO of my thread. 

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

No. Each flip, 50% of heads, 50% of tails. Why is this so hard? 

 

Look, if I flip a coin one time and get heads, the universe doesn't tilt on it's axis, bend the coin....time...space...and create a 25% chance that I will get heads again.  The second time there are only 2 outcomes, same as the first. Past outcomes of coin flips don't predict future outcomes. 7 coin flips = 50% chance of heads or tails for each, with no predictive...anything. 7 heads in a row has a chance of 50% 2 heads, 1 tails, 3 tails, 1 heads? 50% chance...exactly.

 

Get it...yet?

Yes everyone gets that each flip has a 50% chance of being heads or tails but the odds of you getting heads 7 times in a row is about .78%.

[oldmanfan]

3 hours ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Do you run an NFL team? No? Then your opinion...is irrelevant. Like I said, every single pick(s) for picks draft trade since 2012 conforms to the chart. 

 

Do you think this is some sort of amazing mathematical coincidence? That the values and math of the draft chart just automagically happens to comport with every single draft trade for the last 6 years, perhaps more, because 6 years is all that was studied? 

You don't run an NFL team either.  I consider Bill Polian to be one of the best GMs in history.  And he would laugh when the concept of the draft chart came up.  I'll go with Bill

Edited April 10, 2019 by oldmanfan

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Refusing to post anything of substance will 100% of the time get you crushed in my threads. Ask anybody. You can start: now. 

 

Or GTFO of my thread. 

You seem upset.