Is football accuracy like shooting free throws?

[Bill from NYC]

17 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

Like hitting a moving target with wind conditions 40 yards down field?  

 

It’s really crazy when you think about it 

My initial reaction is that it is not like free throw shooting because wrt passing accuracy there are just so many conditions to consider, to include various wind conditions, footing (grass or turf, wet or dry), protection, a qbs own mobility/escape ability, foot and arm speed, arm strength, can you take hits, and many other factors.

 

The most important accuracy factor really might be to immediately identify the fact that your primary target will NOT be open and find the open receiver. This imo is what separates qbs like Brady, Brees and Manning from the pack. These guys are accurate because of their mental capabilities more than their physical prowess.

 

Jmo.

 

 

[CLTbills]

18 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

IMO, this issue about his accuracy has become so overblown...

Me too. Honestly, watching him play the game, I really don't think that he's an inaccurate thrower. Sure, he misses throws here and there. Every QB does. But if you watch his throws, they really aren't inaccurate. Now, his completion % is lower than I'd like, but completion percentage and accuracy are two TOTALLY different things. He has receivers that cant catch. That's why his completion percentage is down. His accuracy isn't that big of a deal. Could it be a little better? Sure. Is it a huge problem like so many make it out to be? Absolutely not.

[The Wiz]

Apples to apples it's not even close.

 

Basketball: stationary player with a stationary Target and no one defending him.

 

Football: moving player, moving target, guys trying to kill you along with other environmental elements when not in a dome.

 

And to point out completion percentages two things that sticks out to me are the limited number of screen plays and Allen's air yards per attempt.

 

I think these are both related since we don't seem to run too many screens since the RB is usually in the backfield blocking since the oline can't hold up most of the time.

Edited December 4, 2018 by The Wiz

[row_33]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Not arguing with you there. However, completion percentage doesn't, in and of itself, provide a complete assessment of accuracy. When I look at Allen, both at Wyoming and with the Bills, I do not see his accuracy as an issue that will prevent him from becoming a franchise caliber QB. I see a QB that is always looking to push the ball downfield (at the top of the league in length of pass per attempt), who throws a lot of passes into tight windows, who throws a lot of passes while moving to extend plays, all while playing with limited talent on the OL and at the offensive skill positions.

 

It is just my opinion; but, I think Allen's style of play, rather than ability, is likely to keep him in the sub 60% completion range (much like Cam Newton, who has spent much of his career in that range).  I know this much: After watching Allen the last two games, I didn't walk away thinking, "I wish he was a more accurate passer." I walked away thinking that I loved his willingness to attempt the kind of throws I have been waiting for from our QBs since Kelly. I also walked away thinking this rookie QB just threw 5 or 6 passes that only a handful of quarterbacks could ever make. Again, just my opinion.

 

Tyrod had great stats, he was basically useless

 

so much for stats playing more than 1/3 of an assessment

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 hours ago, Virgil said:

In the NBA, you hear about the ridiculous practice routines some of the greats have.  I think Kobe wouldn’t start warm-ups until he hit like 500 free throws.  In any case, the muscle memory or whatever is a pledged method for success in the NBA. 

 

In the NFL, I usually here about coaches working on players footwork or release point to affect accuracy.  

 

My question is this, what players have been know to increase their accuracy over the years and what did they do?   For some of the greats that I remember early in their career like Brady and Ben, they started them in a more controlled offense where they’d throw to one read while averaging around 150 yards per game. Simple throws, low turnovers, basic.   Then, over time, things expanded and it almost felt like confidence is how they grew them.  

 

It’s just an interest concept to me, teaching accuracy.  So many of these guys have been throwing the football since they were 5 years old and now we want them to take a step forward in their early 20’s.  It’s happened, I’m just curious for stories that made it happen. 

 

NFL Network did "a football life" piece on Tony Romo.  In it, he commented that in his last 2 years figured out how to throw the ball from any platform and make it go exactly where he wanted, just in time to be sidelined by back injuries. 

 

PFR shows Romo's completion percentage took a jump from 64-65%-ish to 68-69% his final two playing seasons.

 

I think the above reveals both the similarities and differences between NBA shooting in general, and NFL QB'ing.

 

Accuracy has many components for an NFL QB that aren't there in a BB free throw.  First of all, there's the decision making process that is absent from the FT practice - what is the D really doing, thus where should I throw the ball?  What's between the ears influences what happens down to the fingertips.  If the QB is second-guessing himself as he throws, the throw won't come out right. 

 

Second, there's the question, in a no-wind situation where he has time and space to set and throw, will the ball go exactly the distance and direction the QB wants it to go?  This is the part where practice, practice, practice, and more practice may help.  I think it might be a point that it could help Allen more than it might help kids who have been receiving QB coaching for years and years.  Drill, drill, drill.  It needs to be muscle memory and second nature to throw on-platform as much as possible.  Kids who have been playing football year-round and receiving specialized coaching have more muscle memory to overcome.  And despite what some people claim, it is clear that at times Allen needs work here - he has acknowledged as much - especially on the short to medium range throws that should be QB Gimmes.

 

But in real games, there is then the added factor of needing to evade defenders and not always be able to properly step into a throw or re-set one's feet - so then, throwing off platform, can the QB still make the ball go exactly where they wanted? (what Romo said he had developed, and I think in a video clip with Rosen what Rodgers was telling him he needed to practice and develop).

 

And then there's wind

 

I think the QB who have improved their accuracy over the years worked on all these components.  But even so, a QB's accuracy will always depend on how often he is  able to throw on-platform,  either from a pocket or with time to reset, vs. without space to step into a throw or on the move, which depends upon his OL.  His apparent accuracy will also depend upon how well he is "on the same page" with his WR.

 

To my understanding, this last is a big challenge in a EP offense vs a WC offense, because the former depends more upon the QB and WR making the same read as to what the defense is doing as to what route should be run and how.

 

 

[row_33]

you can't really compare throws by a QB year to year based on completions

 

well, you can do whatever you want... and why bother anyways unless someone is paying you 6-figures to do so/

 

every play is different, the talent level and the QB's health is so variable series by series, the opponent's talent level and motivation are always different

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Not arguing with you there. However, completion percentage doesn't, in and of itself, provide a complete assessment of accuracy. When I look at Allen, both at Wyoming and with the Bills, I do not see his accuracy as an issue that will prevent him from becoming a franchise caliber QB. I see a QB that is always looking to push the ball downfield (at the top of the league in length of pass per attempt), who throws a lot of passes into tight windows, who throws a lot of passes while moving to extend plays, all while playing with limited talent on the OL and at the offensive skill positions.

 

It is just my opinion; but, I think Allen's style of play, rather than ability, is likely to keep him in the sub 60% completion range (much like Cam Newton, who has spent much of his career in that range).  I know this much: After watching Allen the last two games, I didn't walk away thinking, "I wish he was a more accurate passer." I walked away thinking that I loved his willingness to attempt the kind of throws I have been waiting for from our QBs since Kelly. I also walked away thinking this rookie QB just threw 5 or 6 passes that only a handful of quarterbacks could ever make. Again, just my opinion.

 

I'd like to tie this in to Bill from NYC point. 

 

Part of what I saw when I watched Allen at Wyoming and also Allen in his initial Bills game, is that at times he was overlooking an open short to medium range man to take a shot.

Successful NFL QB can not do that consistently.  They must be willing to take what the defense gives them.

 

Allen summarized part of the coaching he's receiving from Daboll as "don't pass one up to take one" or words to that effect, meaning "don't pass up a clear, short range 'gimme' to take lower-percentage shots downfield. 

 

It's one of the aspects of his game he's going to have to adjust to achieve long-term success at QB IMO.

 

I am encouraged by this:
Cover 1‏ @Cover_1_ 1h1 hour ago

Allen vs Fins Incompletions minus throwaways and drops
Deep-10 (13 atts)
Intermediate-1 (7 atts)
Short/behind the LOS-0 (9 atts)

 

I think 1 incompletion in 7 intermediate attempts and 0 incompletions in 9 short attempts is far better than Allen would have achieved last spring or even at the start of the season.  Moreover I'm not sure he would have taken 16 short-intermediate attempts vs 13 deep shots.  The ratio should be even higher, but he's showing progress (IMO).