(hypothetical) Alabama vs. Bills spread

[mannc]

18 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Alabama? The guys who where tied with the Citadel at half time ? 

So, are you arguing, based on that one halftime score, that Alabama’s not that good?  Because if you are, I could give you about a dozen other Alabama halftime and final scores that say you couldn’t be more wrong.

[GoBills808]

31 minutes ago, mannc said:

So, are you arguing, based on that one halftime score, that Alabama’s not that good?  Because if you are, I could give you about a dozen other Alabama halftime and final scores that say you couldn’t be more wrong.

If they run the spread for Alabama v New Orleans then I might be able to tell you where my action's going. As of right now I'm pounding Buffalo -28

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If they run the spread for Alabama v New Orleans then I might be able to tell you where my action's going. As of right now I'm pounding Buffalo -28

Keep in mind, this was originally posted before the Jets game, when pretty much everyone thought the Bills were one of the three worst teams in the league.

[GoBills808]

Just now, mannc said:

Keep in mind, this was originally posted before the Jets game, when pretty much everyone thought the Bills were one of the three worst teams in the league.

I think I've been pretty consistent throughout.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If they run the spread for Alabama v New Orleans then I might be able to tell you where my action's going. As of right now I'm pounding Buffalo -28

49.5 https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/alabama-spread-against-every-nfl-team-hypothetical-odds

[GunnerBill]

On 11/25/2018 at 6:25 PM, BringBackOrton said:

And half of them are (future) NFL prospects who are still children.  And of the other half, only a handful will be good in the NFL.

 

Their last 6 starting defensive tackles have all come into the NFL as 1st or 2nd round picks and been very good pretty quickly. 

 

I do think position by position is worth looking because Saban tends to build his teams a similar way. Defensive tackles, defensive backs and inside linebackers his guus come into the NFL and they have success pretty quickly. 

 

They generally do less well on the edges of the defense and they have less success overall on offense (save WR). Their defense would compete with bottom feeder NFL offenses I have little doubt about it. 

 

Their offense would struggle to generate points against even bad NFL defenses though. 

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

49.5 https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/alabama-spread-against-every-nfl-team-hypothetical-odds

 

I am taking New Orleans in that one. No question. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

49.5 https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/alabama-spread-against-every-nfl-team-hypothetical-odds

Thanks...now actual gambling doesn't exactly work this way, but consider for kicks- Saints are NEVER giving 20 points to the Bills on a neutral field. I think there have only been two 20+ point spreads in the NFL over the last 10 season (check that tho) and both times underdog covered...I think smart money is on Buffalo here.

[GoBills808]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am taking New Orleans in that one. No question. 

See the gambler in me says the opposite...I'm taking the Bills -28.5 and Alabama +49.5 and laughing all the way to the bank. Reason being I don't think any book is going to set a 20 point spread Bills/Saints on a neutral field, which tells me they (they being whoever's setting these hypothetical lines) think the difference in quality between Buffalo-New Orleans is roughly equivalent to the difference in quality between Alabama-Buffalo, which imo is nonsense. It doesn't add up. 

[78thealltimegreat]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

So, are you arguing, based on that one halftime score, that Alabama’s not that good?  Because if you are, I could give you about a dozen other Alabama halftime and final scores that say you couldn’t be more wrong.

Look Bama doesn’t come within 5 tds of the Bills this Bills D has made Tom Brady, Deshawn Watson, and Kurt Cousins look normal they’d put Tua in a body bag..Jerry Hughes probably breaks the sack record going against lineman who where just at their prom a year or two ago 

[Kirby Jackson]

16 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Look Bama doesn’t come within 5 tds of the Bills this Bills D has made Tom Brady, Deshawn Watson, and Kurt Cousins look normal they’d put Tua in a body bag..Jerry Hughes probably breaks the sack record going against lineman who where just at their prom a year or two ago 

The most ironic part about all of this is that if you polled TBD on the guy that they want in the 1st the guy against Jerry Hughes would be the most popular choice. This place will be THRILLED if we add Jonah Williams to the OL. The hyperbole in this thread is out of control. He isn’t going to break the sack record against a top 10 pick. 

[78thealltimegreat]

25 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The most ironic part about all of this is that if you polled TBD on the guy that they want in the 1st the guy against Jerry Hughes would be the most popular choice. This place will be THRILLED if we add Jonah Williams to the OL. The hyperbole in this thread is out of control. He isn’t going to break the sack record against a top 10 pick. 

You never heard of stunts and switching sides to create favorable matchups? This is NFL caliber coaching not playing LSU or Old Miss coaching here 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

See the gambler in me says the opposite...I'm taking the Bills -28.5 and Alabama +49.5 and laughing all the way to the bank. Reason being I don't think any book is going to set a 20 point spread Bills/Saints on a neutral field, which tells me they (they being whoever's setting these hypothetical lines) think the difference in quality between Buffalo-New Orleans is roughly equivalent to the difference in quality between Alabama-Buffalo, which imo is nonsense. It doesn't add up. 

 

My book would have a 20 point spread Saints - Bills. They beat us more handily than that on our home field last year since when they have got better and we have got worse. 

[Thurman#1]

On 11/9/2018 at 6:01 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im not dreaming...we would easily run on that team, and McCoy would blow past the second level with ease for big gains while Ivory would slam it down their throat.  

 

 

Yup.  This is correct.

 

Alabama's the best college team, by far. And how many guys from there make the pros each year? Out of 22 starters? Less than 10? That leaves 12 or more guys out there not good enough to be on a pro roster.

 

And that ignores the fact that outside of the first couple of rounds not many college guys can be productive as rookies, even after a training camp and maybe months of combine prep where they quit school to work harder.

 

The Bills or any other team would absolutely kill them.

Edited November 27, 2018 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup.  This is correct.

 

Alabama's the best college team, by far. And how many guys from there make the pros each year? Out of 22 starters? Less than 10? That leaves 12 or more guys out there not good enough to be on a pro roster.

 

And that ignores the fact that outside of the first couple of rounds not many college guys can be productive as rookies, even after a training camp and maybe months of combine prep where they quit school to work harder.

 

The Bills or any other team would absolutely kill them.

 

Pretty much every starter on that current defense will get to the NFL, whether it is this year or next

[mannc]

30 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup.  This is correct.

 

Alabama's the best college team, by far. And how many guys from there make the pros each year? Out of 22 starters? Less than 10? That leaves 12 or more guys out there not good enough to be on a pro roster.

 

The Bills or any other team would kill them.

Your calculations are way off.  Last year’s Alabama team, which was not as good as this year’s team, had 12 guys drafted, not “less than 10”.  Of course, that doesn’t even include current NFL starters Robert Foster and Levi Wallace, both of whom were on last year’s team but went undrafted.  And that 12 also doesn’t include guys like Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis, who weren’t drafted because they either chose to stay in school or weren’t draft-eligible, not because they were “not good enough to be on a pro roster.”  It’s ulikely that there are more than one or two starters on this year’s team that wouldn’t at least be considered viable NFL prospects if they were draft eligible now, not to mention 4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks.  And perhaps the best QB in the country.

Edited November 27, 2018 by mannc

[Thurman#1]

 

 

On 11/26/2018 at 3:20 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

They had 12 drafted because others weren’t eligible or wanted to raise their stock. They will have another 12 or so this year. The same again next year when Jeudy and Tua are eligible. They have 30+ (conservatively) NFL players on their roster.

 

 

It isn't like Alabama gets 12, or even 10 guys drafted every year. Here are the Saban years with the number of guys drafted. Obviously the first few classes were graduating guys not recruited by Saban. But what this shows is that 12 and 10 are outliers.

 

2018: 12

2017: 10

2016: 7

2015: 7

2014: 8

2013: 9

2012: 9

2011: 5

2010: 7

2009: 4

2008: 0

2007: 3

 

While certainly possible that they get 12 or so drafted the next couple of years, it's absolutely not conservative.

 

 

Looking at the 12 guys they had drafted this year. Here is each guy, with how many snaps he has played so far in his rookie year, with STs snaps not included.

 

11 S Minkah Fitzpatrick (528 snaps)

13 DT Daron Payne (484 snaps)

22 LB Rashaan Evans (298 snaps)

26 WR Calvin Ridley (396 snaps)

93 S Ronnie Harrison (186 snaps, 29.1%)

114 DE Da'Shawn Hand (381 snaps)

118 CB Anthony Averett (22 snaps)

172 P JK Scott (punter, 91 STs snaps)

197 LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (0 snaps)

215 C Bradley Bozeman (103 snaps)

236 RB Bo Scarbrough (0 snaps) on his second team's practice squad

246 DT Joshua Frazier (0 snaps) free agent

 

So, that's five guys with significant snaps, unless you want to count Harrison wtih 29.1% of his possible defensive snaps. I guess you could count the punter, too, if you wanted.

 

And each lower class that would also be playing against the Bills would be composed of younger guys with less experience.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Your calculations are way off.  Last year’s Alabama team, which was not as good as this year’s team, had 12 guys drafted, not “less than 10”.  Of course, that doesn’t even include current NFL starters Robert Foster and Levi Wallace, both of whom were on last year’s team but went undrafted.  And that 12 also doesn’t include guys like Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis, who weren’t drafted because they either chose to stay in school or weren’t draft-eligible, not because they were “not good enough to be on a pro roster.”  It’s ulikely that there are more than one or two starters on this year’s team that wouldn’t at least be considered viable NFL prospects if they were draft eligible now, not to mention 4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks.  And perhaps the best QB in the country.

 

 

Quinnen Williams counts next year, or whenever he gets drafted. If you want to look at all of this year's players - regardless of what year they'll be drafted in - and then NOT multiply that by several years of prospects, great, look at Williams and Raekwon.

 

But you don't get to throw Williams in a year earlier then say my per year calculations are off. If you throw Williams in this year, he's out of next year. Same with Raekwon.

 

"It's unlikely that there are more than one or two starters on this year's team that wouldn't at least be considered viable NFL prospects if they were draft eligible now"? Boy, that's very questionable. Possible prospects a year or two down the road when they're actually draft eligible? Maybe, though even that's pushing it. Guys who are likely to start consistently in the NFL for years?

 

"4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks"? That I'll buy. But 4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks ... as rookies ... and actually a year before that? Please. NFL teams would spend hours on evaluating these guys and drafting them and developing them in hopes that they eventually become excellent starters. But in terms of snagging them right off the college field and plugging them in against NFL players? Teams would smile.

 

Robert Foster and Levi Wallace? Both guys who could easily not be in the league in three years? I hope I'm very wrong about that, but those guys still have a ton to prove this year. Take them last year without the training camp and the year of development and put them in a game against pros? Again, please.

 

The QB is the best in the country? Yeah, probably. How are last year's top four QBs doing in the pros? They're finding their feet. Put them in an all-college lineup against an NFL team and it'd look far worse. How did Wentz do as a rookie? Goff?

 

And again, 10 is an outlier. They've averaged less in the Saban years, even throwing out his first three drafts.

Edited November 27, 2018 by Thurman#1

[mannc]

22 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

It isn't like Alabama gets 12, or even 10 guys drafted every year. Here are the Saban years with the number of guys drafted. Obviously the first few classes were graduating guys not recruited by Saban. But what this shows is that 12 and 10 are outliers.

 

2018: 12

2017: 10

2016: 7

2015: 7

2014: 8

2013: 9

2012: 9

2011: 5

2010: 7

2009: 4

2008: 0

2007: 3

 

While certainly possible that they get 12 or so drafted the next couple of years, it's absolutely not conservative.

 

 

Looking at the 12 guys they had drafted this year. Here is each guy, with how many snaps he has played so far in his rookie year, with STs snaps not included.

 

11 S Minkah Fitzpatrick (528 snaps)

13 DT Daron Payne (484 snaps)

22 LB Rashaan Evans (298 snaps)

26 WR Calvin Ridley (396 snaps)

93 S Ronnie Harrison (186 snaps, 29.1%)

114 DE Da'Shawn Hand (381 snaps)

118 CB Anthony Averett (22 snaps)

172 P JK Scott (punter, 91 STs snaps)

197 LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (0 snaps)

215 C Bradley Bozeman (103 snaps)

236 RB Bo Scarbrough (0 snaps) on his second team's practice squad

246 DT Joshua Frazier (0 snaps) free agent

 

So, that's five guys with significant snaps, unless you want to count Harrison wtih 29.1% of his possible defensive snaps. I guess you could count the punter, too, if you wanted.

 

And each lower class that would also be playing against the Bills would be composed of younger guys with less experience.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you for this data.  It of course shows that not all draftees are instant starters, but the vast majority are legitimate NFL players.

 

I doubt that the 12 players drafted last year was much of an outlier, but rather seems more like a trend.  According to the mocks that are currently out there, Alabama will have between 4-7 guys drafted in round 1,  and another 2 or 3 in round 2.  (Some mocks had four Tide players going in the top 10.)  That makes it pretty likely that they will at least match their 2018 output.  The point is, this is one of the most talented college teams ever and they would not be a pushover for an NFL bottom-feeder.

[Thurman#1]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Thank you for this data.  It of course shows that not all draftees are instant starters, but the vast majority are legitimate NFL players.

 

I doubt that the 12 players drafted last year was much of an outlier, but rather seems more like a trend.  According to the mocks that are currently out there, Alabama will have between 4-7 guys drafted in round 1,  and another 2 or 3 in round 2.  (Some mocks had four Tide players going in the top 10.)  That makes it pretty likely that they will at least match their 2018 output.  The point is, this is one of the most talented college teams ever and they would not be a pushover for an NFL bottom-feeder.

 

 

This discussion comes in the context of how Alabama, the college team, would do against the Bills. And it is too early to know whether those guys will be legitimate NFL players, even the guys who are starting. Plenty of young guys start early and don't pan out, getting replaced a year or three down the line.

 

It might be a trend. You can say so a few years down the line. Right now what you've got there is a guess. Not an unreasonable guess, but a guess.

 

And yes, they are one of the most talented college teams ever. College teams. And yes, they would be a pushover for an NFL team, bottom feeder or not. They won the title last year and only five guys got significant NFL snaps this year. And that comes after a year of professional development.

[mannc]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Quinnen Williams counts next year, or whenever he gets drafted. If you want to look at all of this year's players - regardless of what year they'll be drafted in - and then NOT multiply that by several years of prospects, great, look at Williams and Raekwon.

 

But you don't get to throw Williams in a year earlier then say my per year calculations are off. If you throw Williams in this year, he's out of next year. Same with Raekwon.

 

"It's unlikely that there are more than one or two starters on this year's team that wouldn't at least be considered viable NFL prospects if they were draft eligible now"? Boy, that's very questionable. Possible prospects a year or two down the road when they're actually draft eligible? Maybe, though even that's pushing it. Guys who are likely to start consistently in the NFL for years?

 

"4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks"? That I'll buy. But 4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks ... as rookies ... and actually a year before that? Please. NFL teams would spend hours on evaluating these guys and drafting them and developing them in hopes that they eventually become excellent starters. But in terms of snagging them right off the college field and plugging them in against NFL players? Teams would smile.

 

Robert Foster and Levi Wallace? Both guys who could easily not be in the league in three years? I hope I'm very wrong about that, but those guys still have a ton to prove this year. Take them last year without the training camp and the year of development and put them in a game against pros? Again, please.

 

The QB is the best in the country? Yeah, probably. How are last year's top four QBs doing in the pros? They're finding their feet. Put them in an all-college lineup against an NFL team and it'd look far worse. How did Wentz do as a rookie? Goff?

 

And again, 10 is an outlier. They've averaged less in the Saban years, even throwing out his first three drafts.

So are you saying Davis and Williams would not have been drafted in 2018 if they had been eligible?  Tua won’t be eligible this year either, but if he was, is there any doubt he’d be drafted?   

 

As to the idea that guys from a program like Alabama get significantly coached up when they get to the pros, well, we’ll just have to disagree about that.